[XMR] Monero Speculation

[yelllowsin]

Are you seriously considering that we might getting to the top? Actually at this point or will go up or we crash. But i don't see any big news except the fact of the new GUI which is promissed only months later. This is my analysis based on MACD only.

I know you are trying to be positive, most people here have XMR invested, including me. But shouldn't we look at basics?

[iCEBREAKER]

Coin voting means something, as does block voting via version bits and whatnot.  Blowing off the resoundingly pro-Core/anti-Classic results on Bitcoinacracy is yet another way to spin politics.

These are all indicators of something sure, but they don't determine what software runs the network, any more than node count does. Even the latter indicates something, if something of vastly overstated importance by some in this debate.

Right, coin voting indicates something, specifically the preference of the self-selecting group that can be bothered to sign a ballot with their coins.  That socioeconomic indicator plays more of a role in determining what software runs (and doesn't run) the network than node counts (and Consider.it granfalloonery).

Why?  Because node counts include non-economic (ie fake) nodes, so at most they indicate an ongoing Sybil attack.  Coin voting by cryptographic definition cannot indicate non-economic (ie fake) users' preferences, even if it is merely a self-selected sample and not the exhaustively thorough poll we might have in An Ideal World.

Now, what happens when we apply to Bitcoinocracy's coin voting the extrapolation logic used by Classic supporters when they asked demanded slush split his entire pool's block voting according to the expressed preferences of the can-bother-to-vote subset?   

What happens is we get to hear from the losing side deflection about how the venue is flawed, so any results produced therein must biased/invalid/meaningless.   

[aminorex]

Are you seriously considering that we might getting to the top? Actually at this point or will go up or we crash. But i don't see any big news except the fact of the new GUI which is promissed only months later. This is my analysis based on MACD only.

I know you are trying to be positive, most people here have XMR invested, including me. But shouldn't we look at basics?

All that matters is whether people on balance are buying or selling, and how aggressively.  That's the only "basic" fact that impacts price.  Stuff can stay overbought or oversold for a long time.  Look at November 2013 bitcoin, for example.  Look at SPX from April 2008 to March 2009.  If the buyers/sellers are not technical traders, they don't care what technical indicators are saying.  (And for every bullish technical indicator you produce, I can respond with a bearish one, anyhow.)

The major news in XMR is the hard fork.  It demonstrates that the core team's plan for managing the technical evolution of XMR is viable.  That means XMR can adapt to changing realities.  Unlike some other coins.  I am quite sure that others can enumerate a large number of other new developments in XMR, but this is the one that has me psyched.

I always recommend buying XMR.  I recommend buying it in constant dollar amounts, on a regular schedule, regardless of the price.  It's the only advice I've ever found which works for everyone, no matter how inept they are at timing.  I recommend saving regularly in XMR to several persons each week.  Sometimes I address large groups.  Sometimes I address wealthy people, and sometimes I address poor people.  Buying XMR is good for everyone.  Selling XMR is bad for everyone.  It really is that simple.

Have you ever met anyone who sold XMR and didn't regret the decision later?  If so, were they trustworthy, or a known liar?  I generally find that people who try to convince you to sell XMR are known liars, who like to buy XMR cheaply, at your expense.  Someone just bought several hundred BTC worth of XMR.  I am guessing that they know something that you and I do not know. I am definitely not going to sell any XMR right now (except for a small sum used for market-making, which I buy and sell several times every day).

If you knew the future, you would already have discounted it.  The question is not what is the known news, but what is the unknown news.  I see many events upcoming which will cause XMR to spike.  I know of no events upcoming which are not bullish for XMR.  For example:  The first major DNM to support XMR.  The first Chinese businessman to get a bullet in the head for violating capital controls with BTC.  The first exchange to offer an XMR/fiat pair.  Et cetera, et cetera, ad nauseam.  If you are not holding XMR when these things happen, it will already be too late.

EDIT: Anyhow, the chart looks pretty bullish to me, in the near term:



EDIT: Also, from klee's PnF thread:

Monero:



Price Objective for this congestion area: 0.00972

[LucyLovesCrypto]

I always recommend buying XMR.  I recommend buying it in constant dollar amounts, on a regular schedule, regardless of the price.

Dollar cost averaging can help a lot of people (if they have wealth in dollars). What about BTC cost averaging for those who measure wealth in crypto (like most BTC early adopters) and a much lesser position in fiat.

What are your reasons for talking about fiat cost averaging instead of BTC cost averaging?

[aminorex]

What are your reasons for talking about fiat cost averaging instead of BTC cost averaging?

For most people, their income is in fiat.  The amount which they can afford to save in crypto is an amount in fiat.  At some point they will be overweight in XMR, if they save aggressively or if XMR rises 8x, like it did during the past 15 months.  Then they should save less in XMR, to maintain diversification.

If your income and expenses are primarily in crypto, then you should consider accounting in other units, certainly.  I personally tend to mentally convert everything to gold.

[americanpegasus]

I usually agree with you wholeheartedly but do not agree on that last part. 
 
Those who saved their money in Bitcoin from $1 to $8 and then stopped because they didn't want to be 'overweight in Bitcoin' surely regretted it.  The smart ones bought Bitcoin all the way up to $30 and then all the way down to $2, and then back up.

[aminorex]

Those who saved their money in Bitcoin from $1 to $8 and then stopped because they didn't want to be 'overweight in Bitcoin' surely regretted it.  The smart ones bought Bitcoin all the way up to $30 and then all the way down to $2, and then back up.

I could own more XMR than I do.  But I think that if I own too much, then it is bad for the economy and the culture.  Most people don't want to get very wealthy.  Most who do want to get very wealthy probably shouldn't.  Personally, I am trying to maximize wealth because I have a purpose for it, which I consider very important, superceding my personal interests.  But even for that purpose, there is an optimal proportion of the XMR distribution which I seek to own.  If I own more, I prefer to sell.  I currently own too much of the current distribution, but not enough of the long-term distribution, so I feel free to accumulate, in a small way, until I own an optimal proportion of the 18mm XMR distributed before maintenance rewards kick in.  As the economy grows, that notional optimum will decrease over time: When there are goods and services being transacted in XMR routinely, the velocity of the float needs to be reasonable in order for the economy to grow.  If the velocity appears to be a limiting factor, I will definitely distribute, regardless of the price.

Focusing exclusively on maximizing personal wealth is not a good plan, in my opinion.  If you are just going to waste it on hedonic excess, I think you will soon find yourself on a meaningless hedonic treadmill.  The end thereof is death.  Personally, I seek to maximize meaningfulness.  That is a diverse, complex and moving target, but philanthropy certainly helps, as do healthy interpersonal relationships, and a project agenda.

[americanpegasus]

The very best humans find a healthy balance between hedonism and meaningfulness. 
 
WWTSD?

[meme magic]

money always seems more meaningful with a solid plan to establish a cash flow with it.

[inca]

Those who saved their money in Bitcoin from $1 to $8 and then stopped because they didn't want to be 'overweight in Bitcoin' surely regretted it.  The smart ones bought Bitcoin all the way up to $30 and then all the way down to $2, and then back up.

I could own more XMR than I do.  But I think that if I own too much, then it is bad for the economy and the culture.  Most people don't want to get very wealthy.  Most who do want to get very wealthy probably shouldn't.  Personally, I am trying to maximize wealth because I have a purpose for it, which I consider very important, superceding my personal interests.  But even for that purpose, there is an optimal proportion of the XMR distribution which I seek to own.  If I own more, I prefer to sell.  I currently own too much of the current distribution, but not enough of the long-term distribution, so I feel free to accumulate, in a small way, until I own an optimal proportion of the 18mm XMR distributed before maintenance rewards kick in.  As the economy grows, that notional optimum will decrease over time: When there are goods and services being transacted in XMR routinely, the velocity of the float needs to be reasonable in order for the economy to grow.  If the velocity appears to be a limiting factor, I will definitely distribute, regardless of the price.

Focusing exclusively on maximizing personal wealth is not a good plan, in my opinion.  If you are just going to waste it on hedonic excess, I think you will soon find yourself on a meaningless hedonic treadmill.  The end thereof is death.  Personally, I seek to maximize meaningfulness.  That is a diverse, complex and moving target, but philanthropy certainly helps, as do healthy interpersonal relationships, and a project agenda.

This begs the obvious question of how much XMR one should hold? I am adding a few btc a week at the moment.

[smooth]

Now, what happens when we apply to Bitcoinocracy's coin voting the extrapolation logic used by Classic supporters when they asked demanded slush split his entire pool's block voting according to the expressed preferences of the can-bother-to-vote subset?   

A lot of politics is what happens, not limited to this particular manifestation of course.

[lolikop]

Let me tell u the real problem with XMR.

its the devs, they dont work hard enough to make this wonderful coin succeed im waiting for 2 years for an GUI wallet not that i cant run a simplewallet !!!

its about adoption we need a GUI to go mainstream but the devs are taking it easy lets wait another year or maybe 3 years fk it im out for now

[aminorex]

how much XMR one should hold? I am adding a few btc a week at the moment.

I wouldn't worry about it as long as the usage is primarily speculation.  When there is a real economy, however, you've got to share, or you will be strangling your own golden goose.  I don't have strong principled quantitative criteria.  We're not there yet anyhow.

[Hueristic]

The very best humans find a healthy balance between hedonism and meaningfulness. 
 
WWTSD?

Let me tell u the real problem with XMR.

its the devs, they dont work hard enough to make this wonderful coin succeed im waiting for 2 years for an GUI wallet not that i cant run a simplewallet !!!

its about adoption we need a GUI to go mainstream but the devs are taking it easy lets wait another year or maybe 3 years fk it im out for now

[newb4now]

Let me tell u the real problem with XMR.

its the devs, they dont work hard enough to make this wonderful coin succeed im waiting for 2 years for an GUI wallet not that i cant run a simplewallet !!!

its about adoption we need a GUI to go mainstream but the devs are taking it easy lets wait another year or maybe 3 years fk it im out for now

XMR has a great dev team. They have done a lot of work in the past few years. It is all about priorities:

https://getmonero.org/design-goals/

[explorer]

Those who saved their money in Bitcoin from $1 to $8 and then stopped because they didn't want to be 'overweight in Bitcoin' surely regretted it.  The smart ones bought Bitcoin all the way up to $30 and then all the way down to $2, and then back up.

I could own more XMR than I do.  But I think that if I own too much, then it is bad for the economy and the culture.  Most people don't want to get very wealthy.  Most who do want to get very wealthy probably shouldn't.  Personally, I am trying to maximize wealth because I have a purpose for it, which I consider very important, superceding my personal interests.  But even for that purpose, there is an optimal proportion of the XMR distribution which I seek to own.  If I own more, I prefer to sell.  I currently own too much of the current distribution, but not enough of the long-term distribution, so I feel free to accumulate, in a small way, until I own an optimal proportion of the 18mm XMR distributed before maintenance rewards kick in.  As the economy grows, that notional optimum will decrease over time: When there are goods and services being transacted in XMR routinely, the velocity of the float needs to be reasonable in order for the economy to grow.  If the velocity appears to be a limiting factor, I will definitely distribute, regardless of the price.

Focusing exclusively on maximizing personal wealth is not a good plan, in my opinion.  If you are just going to waste it on hedonic excess, I think you will soon find yourself on a meaningless hedonic treadmill.  The end thereof is death.  Personally, I seek to maximize meaningfulness.  That is a diverse, complex and moving target, but philanthropy certainly helps, as do healthy interpersonal relationships, and a project agenda.

This begs the obvious question of how much XMR one should hold? I am adding a few btc a week at the moment.

 
  While there are fewer holders, a greater chunk is harmless in benevolent hands.  If you hold 18K, (currently ~11k XMR) there can't be 1000 others like you. That is a lot for one entity to control, and yet at times that has been as little as 18 BTC,  or $5K.  Accessible to most anyone in the western world with a job or a credit card.  Even now 30k USD for 1/1000 of the pie is kind of ridiculously cheap.  IMO to hold that or more should be part of a plan to redistribute as user base increases.  Since there are most certainly entities with 10X that amount and more, we just have to hope that greed is enough to get them to redistribute as time goes on, and in a responsible manner.
  Extreme wealth sounds like more headaches than it is worth, unless you have a plan for it like aminorex.  I will be content to just nibble around the edges of extreme wealth, from time to time :p  Low profile works for me.  If I can provide security for my family, perhaps contribute in some way to my community, I will be well pleased.  Not everyone wants to rule the world with a target on their back.  I'm happy to leave that to the young and ambitious.

[explorer]

Let me tell u the real problem with XMR.

its the devs, they dont work hard enough to make this wonderful coin succeed im waiting for 2 years for an GUI wallet not that i cant run a simplewallet !!!

its about adoption we need a GUI to go mainstream but the devs are taking it easy lets wait another year or maybe 3 years fk it im out for now

You should donate  1/2 of your holdings to the dev fund, that might speed things up.

[nioc]

Let me tell u the real problem with XMR.

its the devs, they dont work hard enough to make this wonderful coin succeed im waiting for 2 years for an GUI wallet not that i cant run a simplewallet !!!

its about adoption we need a GUI to go mainstream but the devs are taking it easy lets wait another year or maybe 3 years fk it im out for now

Why sell an amazing coin?

BTW, how/what have you contributed to the development of Monero?

Edit: Hi explorer 

[smooth]

Let me tell u the real problem with XMR.

its the devs, they dont work hard enough to make this wonderful coin succeed im waiting for 2 years for an GUI wallet not that i cant run a simplewallet !!!

its about adoption we need a GUI to go mainstream but the devs are taking it easy lets wait another year or maybe 3 years fk it im out for now

You should donate  1/2 of your holdings to the dev fund, that might speed things up.

That's pretty silly.

The GUI work is already funded, and it is under way. If someone thinks that mainstream adoption is right around the corner and the only thing holding it back is the GUI not being finished, and therefore "fuck it I'm out", I'm without words.

Why sell an amazing coin?

fk it im out for now

Yes, this is normally what happens when there is a big pump. We get some fair weather friends, the pump stalls or reverses a bit and they're gone as fast as they arrived. It's all good.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Those who saved their money in Bitcoin from $1 to $8 and then stopped because they didn't want to be 'overweight in Bitcoin' surely regretted it.  The smart ones bought Bitcoin all the way up to $30 and then all the way down to $2, and then back up.

Nonsense. They're only smart with the hindsight of an $1100 ATH. Had the price dropped below $1 and never returned, you probably wouldn't be calling them smart.

Foolishness working out in your favor doesn't make you less foolish.