[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TheKoziTwo]

You are making some serious game theory errors if you believe there is no way for an altcoin to ever overtake Bitcoin.  Bitcoin will likely never be worthless, but it doesn't have to remain on top.  You are subscribing to a fallacy if you believe this. 
 
Consider Usenet vs. Internet.  Consider MySpace vs Facebook.  Consider the Kingdom of Britain vs the spunky 13 colonies of the Americas.  Consider Chistianity vs Judaism.  Consider humanity vs every other mammal.  Consider Reddit vs Digg.  Consider a thousand examples. 
 
You are failing to recognize that if an asset generates faith in utility in itself it no longer is bound by its parent asset, and can break free from such a prisoner's dillema - especially if we can get fiat on ramps.  There are literally billions of people in this world who may first hear of cryptocurrency through the Cryotonote family and be surprised there was once a predecessor crypto to it called Bitcoin.  Have you ever considered that?

I assume this was directed at me? I never said that I believe no coin can ever overtake bitcoin. But I don't believe a technological improved coin is all that matters either. Bitcoin after all has 7 years history, it has a ton of merchants, a very large user base, lots of payment services, major developer backing etc, even has it's own ETNs. You can't just invent something with better technology and take all that over night, that's not how it works. My argument is that it takes significant improvements and a long period of time for something like that to happen, and it will probably involve major stagnation for bitcoin, over a long period of time. It won't happen just because people FUD like crazy on reddit, even though that may hurt the price. The massive number of merchants still exist no matter how many times people say bitcoin is dead. In fact bitcoin today is wildly successful. It's a success beyond what anybody could even dream of only 5 years ago.

Regarding your second point, I tend to agree with that. A coin with it's own utility can grow large and be complimentary to bitcoin. I believe Monero could be such coin. I also recognize that at some point side chains may be implemented in bitcoin, and a lot of the current altcoins will no longer be needed. It makes the most sense to build upon bitcoin due to it's enormous hashing power, infrastructure and financial investment, rather than bootstrap a new network from scratch any time there's a new feature. There's a possibility that bitcoin will be a protocol layer that people build upon (e.g through side chains) and that's a throne that may become hard to out compete. The TCP of money?

[TheKoziTwo]

The smartest speculators will recognize the fallacy that will haunt the space, namely: A coin can easily be replaced with a little improvement in technology with no ill effects on the economy.

The key question is what constitutes "a little" improvement.

Even something like LTC could be major improvement, in theory.

You can't measure qualitative improvements in terms of number of lines of code changes. If scrypt really were a much better and nearly optimal PoW algorithm and 2.5 minutes a much better and nearly optimal block time and coblee a much better and nearly optimal community founder/leader, and 2011 a much better and nearly optimal time to launch a cryptocurrency, then BTC could indeed have been replaced by LTC, yet BTC could not have been replaced by anything, becase at least on these metrics, it would be nearly optimal, rendering further major improvements impossible and the fallacy is no longer a fallacy.

It could, just not overnight, and during that long period of time bitcoin could implement those changes. Even in 2011 there was probably several hundred news articles related to BTC for every one on LTC. BTC had plenty of merchant while LTC practically had zero (and still has almost zero). Just to put it in perspective. I'd say if something fundamentally different was invented, not just changing the hashing algorithm and increasing block rate, but something so new and different, kind of like how different bitcoin is to banks, it could happen a lot faster. What I'm getting at here is that there's a lot more to this than only technology. If technology is all that matters perhaps ETH or XMR would be the largest right now. But then you'll expect to see both replaced later by something else. Maybe tomorrow XMR will be replaced by zcash. That would take away all the trust in cryptocurrencies as a store of value and invalidated their use as a medium of exchange.

[TheKoziTwo]

If we extend the time period it takes for most people to lose interest in BTC to something longer like 2 months you'll still have early speculators dumping BTC to preserve their wealth. Some will dump for USD and some will dump for XMR. But a few enlightened speculators would likely be enough to cause major panic and havoc to the cryptocurrency space. The smartest speculators will recognize the fallacy that will haunt the space, namely: A coin can easily be replaced with a little improvement in technology with no ill effects on the economy. This is a fallacy because if that is the case there will be a race to the bottom in every following coin in the dawn of a new one. Competition will drive the time it takes to replace a coin down from perhaps 3 years today to 1 year, 6 months, 3 months, 1 month, 2 weeks, 1 week, 1 day... At some point coins are replaced so often that they can no longer hold any value. What is the properties of money? One is store of value. Which will be no more. Without store of value we can't have a medium of exchange. Without that, there is no currency.

Easily replaced?  No way.  No one will think that, because that is not what will have happened.

What will have happened if bitcoin falls and an alt takes the top position, is that ONE other crypto managed to replace it, after 7+ years, with (probably) significantly superior technology, out of the hundreds or thouands of coins that were made in the hopes of becoming #1 and replacing bitcoin.


No one is going to believe that what occurred was accomplished easily.  Will they think its *possible* yes.  But only if a new, much superior technology to the new top coin came around, and only with a lot of effort, and a rise spanning a significant period of time.


This is a good thing, because it will mean that the market starts to ACTUALLY CARE about the fundamentals of the cryptocurrencies, and people will be looking for the coins with technical superiority which can rise to the top, and getting out of stale coins with no development and outdated models.


I am tired of the crypto environment where almost nobody understands or cares about fundamentals, and hype and marketing rules the day.  The most fundamentally secure cryptos like Monero should be at the top, and maybe if bitcoin falls people will actually wake the hell up and start looking for the technically best crypto.

I agree with most of this. But I don't think Monero should be on top, not even close. There's practically zero merchants for monero. Monero is fueld by speculation and basically nothing else right now. Yes, the technology may be great, but that's far from the only thing that matters. Saying that monero should be the top coin right now is exactly the kind of bullshit you claim to be tired of. It's hype and an attempt to pump the price of monero.

[Quicken]

This begs the obvious question of how much XMR one should hold? I am adding a few btc a week at the moment.

 
  While there are fewer holders, a greater chunk is harmless in benevolent hands.  If you hold 18K, (currently ~11k XMR) there can't be 1000 others like you. That is a lot for one entity to control, and yet at times that has been as little as 18 BTC,  or $5K.  Accessible to most anyone in the western world with a job or a credit card.  Even now 30k USD for 1/1000 of the pie is kind of ridiculously cheap.  IMO to hold that or more should be part of a plan to redistribute as user base increases.  Since there are most certainly entities with 10X that amount and more, we just have to hope that greed is enough to get them to redistribute as time goes on, and in a responsible manner.
  Extreme wealth sounds like more headaches than it is worth, unless you have a plan for it like aminorex.  I will be content to just nibble around the edges of extreme wealth, from time to time :p  Low profile works for me.  If I can provide security for my family, perhaps contribute in some way to my community, I will be well pleased.  Not everyone wants to rule the world with a target on their back.  I'm happy to leave that to the young and ambitious.

Five figures for the Dolphin, six for the Whale.

[TheKoziTwo]

The major news in XMR is the hard fork.  It demonstrates that the core team's plan for managing the technical evolution of XMR is viable.  That means XMR can adapt to changing realities.  Unlike some other coins.  I am quite sure that others can enumerate a large number of other new developments in XMR, but this is the one that has me psyched.

No, it does not demonstrate that the plan is viable. Not even close. Monero is a minuscule currency with zero merchant adoption. It's a speculative vehicle and nothing else. If monero grows to the same size as bitcoin in terms of infrastructure, merchants, network etc we're going to have the same issues that currently haunts bitcoin. Developers will disagree and things will stagnate. The 6-month hardfork thing is a good idea and a step forward. But I think it's naive to think that everybody will agree in the future regardless.

I always recommend buying XMR.  I recommend buying it in constant dollar amounts, on a regular schedule, regardless of the price.  It's the only advice I've ever found which works for everyone, no matter how inept they are at timing.  I recommend saving regularly in XMR to several persons each week.  Sometimes I address large groups.  Sometimes I address wealthy people, and sometimes I address poor people.  Buying XMR is good for everyone.  Selling XMR is bad for everyone.  It really is that simple.

Care to elaborate on that? How can you say that "selling XMR is bad for everyone" ?

Have you ever met anyone who sold XMR and didn't regret the decision later?

I can tell you that many a time I have sold and later wish I had sold more.

If you knew the future, you would already have discounted it.  The question is not what is the known news, but what is the unknown news.  I see many events upcoming which will cause XMR to spike.  I know of no events upcoming which are not bullish for XMR.  For example:  The first major DNM to support XMR.  The first Chinese businessman to get a bullet in the head for violating capital controls with BTC.  The first exchange to offer an XMR/fiat pair.  Et cetera, et cetera, ad nauseam.  If you are not holding XMR when these things happen, it will already be too late.

Well there's zcash for one. I suspect it will be massively hyped and leave little monero in the shadows for a while. May happen, may not. Side chains in bitcoin is another one. May not have any effect, but it could. We don't know yet. There could come out a new and better coin. A major bitcoin rally has at least in the past driven altcoins to the ground, that could happen again. Many scenarios could play out that are not bullish for monero. Things are looking good, but realistically monero is no guaranteed success.

[elrippo]

Are you seriously considering that we might getting to the top? Actually at this point or will go up or we crash. But i don't see any big news except the fact of the new GUI which is promissed only months later. This is my analysis based on MACD only.

I know you are trying to be positive, most people here have XMR invested, including me. But shouldn't we look at basics?

The volume tells you the whole history. Since Feb '16 is in a new whole level, therefore price should reach a new whole level as well. Maybe 2-4x more, so around .01 seem even conservative. .02 could be spot on in this wave, but could be way higher.

I tend to agrre with you
2015


2016 same place, same station?


We will see...

[griffen1102]

Are you seriously considering that we might getting to the top? Actually at this point or will go up or we crash. But i don't see any big news except the fact of the new GUI which is promissed only months later. This is my analysis based on MACD only.

I know you are trying to be positive, most people here have XMR invested, including me. But shouldn't we look at basics?

The volume tells you the whole history. Since Feb '16 is in a new whole level, therefore price should reach a new whole level as well. Maybe 2-4x more, so around .01 seem even conservative. .02 could be spot on in this wave, but could be way higher.

I tend to agrre with you
2015


2016 same place, same station?


We will see...

If this is the work of a Market Maker they are doing a phenomenal job of faking people out. I don't have much more to add to what aminorex has already said but to reiterate that the pipeline for XMR has me very bullish still.

[elrippo]

Who of you guys is playing at bittrex 

[elrippo]

Are you seriously considering that we might getting to the top? Actually at this point or will go up or we crash. But i don't see any big news except the fact of the new GUI which is promissed only months later. This is my analysis based on MACD only.

I know you are trying to be positive, most people here have XMR invested, including me. But shouldn't we look at basics?

The volume tells you the whole history. Since Feb '16 is in a new whole level, therefore price should reach a new whole level as well. Maybe 2-4x more, so around .01 seem even conservative. .02 could be spot on in this wave, but could be way higher.

I tend to agrre with you
2015

2016 same place, same station?

We will see...

If this is the work of a Market Maker they are doing a phenomenal job of faking people out. I don't have much more to add to what aminorex has already said but to reiterate that the pipeline for XMR has me very bullish still.

Well, if it smells like a market maker it tends to be a market maker....  

[CryptoAddict]

Lot of 2-3k sized orders getting filled at 340-350k, only to be instantly put back on the book. Someone is accumulating..  

My guess is that he decided to take advantage of the dump caused by BTC spike to create a fake temporary downtrend. Chart is now looking like head and shoulders formation, almost identical to the top of last year. It's "too perfect" which is why I remain skeptical about this dump.

Maybe I'm just telling myself bagholder lies - not sure.

[marshmallowpeep]

What is a good price for 50,000 monero over the counter?

[aminorex]

What is a good price for 50,000 monero over the counter?

Poloniex ask + 2.5% is fair.  Because that many will move marketcap by ~5%, and your VWAP should split the difference.

[marshmallowpeep]

Sell them to me.

[aminorex]

Sell them to me.

4% with escrow paid. Or you can try #monero-otc at freenode.net IRC.  You should not attempt this in public.

[marshmallowpeep]

Is okay.  I want to pay using ETH.

[aminorex]

I recommend IRC. Anyone with @ prefix on their name is good for escrow.

[r0ach]

Is okay.  I want to pay using ETH.

You wouldn't happen to be from Serbia would you

[birr]

Things are looking good, but realistically monero is no guaranteed success.

Monero has a 74% chance of succeeding.

[CrowdWhale]

This is the channel I'm seeing. Current range: 335k to ~345k

[elrippo]

This is the channel I'm seeing. Current range: 335k to ~345k

Could be, i hope i am wrong, but it tastes too much the same as last year...