[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

Could be, i hope i am wrong, but it tastes too much the same as last year...

Last year the facts were profoundly different.  Facts beat pareidolia every time.

[wpalczynski]

Could be, i hope i am wrong, but it tastes too much the same as last year...

Last year the facts were profoundly different.  Facts beat pareidolia every time.

What differentiates this years ascent in price vs. last years is the dramatically larger volume this year.  In addition observe the difference in velocity of the price decline after reaching the peak last year vs. now.

[CrowdWhale]

This is the channel I'm seeing. Current range: 335k to ~345k

Buy walls gone. Sell wall up. Whale is pushing down. People are buying around 345k. The trend line is close. In an hour there's a final spike of volume before 12 hours of low volume. That's our next chance for a rally, but I suspect we'll just nudge back up into the 360s. Volume is low exchange-wide, so we might just be drifting about 345-365 making a pennant or triangle until a breakout at the beginning of the month (Fri-Mon). 370k is probably the breakout level.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The low volumes in the valleys are a bullish sign. Basically they scream from the roofs: there are only a few sellers who dump.

[CrowdWhale]

Triangles and pennants have a funny way of stretching themselves out, but this is a best case scenario that could be forming. It would bring a breakout by the morning west coast USA. I'll believe it if it bounces off 360k while 350k becomes solid.

[CrowdWhale]

I also believe the sell wall is fake and that the current point of equilibrium on the depth chart is 355k, which supports the triangle forming above, which is pointed at 355k. I'm considering the balance of 420 BTC at 300k and 410k.

[wpalczynski]

News like this is likely do continue driving Monero adoption: http://themerkle.com/homeland-security-bitcoin-task-force-is-very-real/

[TrueCryptonaire]

The bottle-neck is the marketing here.
The btc bagholders need to be told about Monero.. I am quite sure there are many who have not even heard about XMR.

[Spoetnik]

Congrats on breaking the 800 page mark guys with your "Speculation" topic..
This must be one hell of a popular coin with rampant intense speculation going on! WOW! 

[TrueCryptonaire]

Yet the price is still at  the very rock bottom. A great bargain in my opinion. A lot of new people entering and starting to collect coins. This combined with the fact that the emission is tightening will drive the price to crazy highs.

[CrowdWhale]

My sphincter is tightening too.  

[GingerAle]

The bottle-neck is the marketing here.
The btc bagholders need to be told about Monero.. I am quite sure there are many who have not even heard about XMR.

No, the bottleneck for a lot of bitcoin bag holders is probably the GUI. They come from BTC, where they have a plethora of GUI options (and hell, wallet service options), and then they see simplewallet and mymonero and go "you serious?" and hell, up until 4 months ago (so, the entirety of almost the first 2 years of the networks existence), the released binaries required all the ram.

I doubt they haven't heard of Monero. They've probably heard of it and dismissed it.

[CrowdWhale]

This is the channel I'm seeing. Current range: 335k to ~345k

Buy walls gone. Sell wall up. Whale is pushing down. People are buying around 345k. The trend line is close. In an hour there's a final spike of volume before 12 hours of low volume. That's our next chance for a rally, but I suspect we'll just nudge back up into the 360s. Volume is low exchange-wide, so we might just be drifting about 345-365 making a pennant or triangle until a breakout at the beginning of the month (Fri-Mon). 370k is probably the breakout level.

The XMR depth chart without the market maker's whale walls...

[elrippo]

This is the channel I'm seeing. Current range: 335k to ~345k

Buy walls gone. Sell wall up. Whale is pushing down. People are buying around 345k. The trend line is close. In an hour there's a final spike of volume before 12 hours of low volume. That's our next chance for a rally, but I suspect we'll just nudge back up into the 360s. Volume is low exchange-wide, so we might just be drifting about 345-365 making a pennant or triangle until a breakout at the beginning of the month (Fri-Mon). 370k is probably the breakout level.

The XMR depth chart without the market maker's whale walls...

Did you notice the whale all on bittrex at .0034

[CrowdWhale]

Triangles and pennants have a funny way of stretching themselves out, but this is a best case scenario that could be forming. It would bring a breakout by the morning west coast USA. I'll believe it if it bounces off 360k while 350k becomes solid.

A more likely triangle, resulting in a Monday morning (London) breakout in the 375k-380k range.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The bottle-neck is the marketing here.
The btc bagholders need to be told about Monero.. I am quite sure there are many who have not even heard about XMR.

No, the bottleneck for a lot of bitcoin bag holders is probably the GUI. They come from BTC, where they have a plethora of GUI options (and hell, wallet service options), and then they see simplewallet and mymonero and go "you serious?" and hell, up until 4 months ago (so, the entirety of almost the first 2 years of the networks existence), the released binaries required all the ram.

I doubt they haven't heard of Monero. They've probably heard of it and dismissed it.

I see your point, the lack of GUI is something that may not attract people towards XMR. BTC is already quite mainstream (and ETH is hitting mainstream big time as well - XMR can be the # 3 coin and the ultimate store of value).
However, mass adoption takes time. People will begin the adaption process by ignoring the new way of conducting businesses, then they might experiment once they have been bombarded and finally they are going to adore it.

The good news is, the current price trend should incentive GUI development process as the value of the bounty grows.

[CrowdWhale]

A more likely triangle, resulting in a Monday morning (London) breakout in the 375k-380k range.

Scratch that. Bottom of the channel tagged again. Good support below.

[sandiman]

Very interesting to see you discussing about Monero valuation, looks like we've got some experts here .

I am following on a daily basis the cryptocommunity since december 2015 and it's true that monero lacks terribly of marketing/sales power.

I was wondering if any of you had an idea why? Because you can have the best project ever, if you don't sell it then....

[iCEBREAKER]

Very interesting to see you discussing about Monero valuation, looks like we've got some experts here .

I am following on a daily basis the cryptocommunity since december 2015 and it's true that monero lacks terribly of marketing/sales power.

I was wondering if any of you had an idea why? Because you can have the best project ever, if you don't sell it then....

XMR community collectively decided to delay marketing until such time as RAM-saving database and GUI are ready.  We're long past the first checkpoint, and progress to the second is well underway.

A few Wild & Free mustangs went ahead with some awareness increasing campaigns (xmrpromotions and Pegasus), and those initial efforts have already resulted in (or at least correlated with) large price/volume increases and lots of chatter on /r/* (esp when Zcash/fungibility/tracking are discussed).

When the GUI is done, we'll use the forum funding system to make a Superbowl halftime ad starring Pegasus and Fluffypony!   

[lolikop]

When the GUI is done,

Last activity on github was 5 days ago, the guy Ilya Kitaev whos working on it doesnt give a shit, so ETA should be another year

Feel free to dump XMR unless u have no problems holding it in cold storage for 300+ days