[XMR] Monero Speculation

[CrowdWhale]

Please come down a little my dear Monero! I wanna buy some of you.  

I really don't understand this thinking. If it breaks the trend line convincingly you don't WANT to buy. It makes no sense to me to not buy at the trendline, but to buy just below it. There's a REASON 335k is holding time and time again. It's the bottom of the ascending channel. If people want it to go up they should be defending it aggressively, not trying to break it for a cheaper price.

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[dEBRUYNE]

There's no doubt I made a bad trade, but that really isn't the issue. Trying to break the trend line so you can buy at 250k is the issue. I'm just tired of wasting time on TA in markets that move according to the greed of a small number of individuals. So yeah, even if it doesn't go to 299k I'm pretty close to taking my profits while I still have them. Forex was more complicated because of how much has to be considered in the fundamentals, but at least when things happen you can figure out why and the answer isn't "because someone put up a huge buy/sell wall".

Frankly, because of the illiquidity of many cryptocurrencies, i.e., they can easily be broken by one "entity"/trader, one shouldn't put too much weight on trendlines in my opinion. Personally, I like to look at (major) horizontal support and resistances zone. They usually work best.

[wpalczynski]

There's no doubt I made a bad trade, but that really isn't the issue. Trying to break the trend line so you can buy at 250k is the issue. I'm just tired of wasting time on TA in markets that move according to the greed of a small number of individuals. So yeah, even if it doesn't go to 299k I'm pretty close to taking my profits while I still have them. Forex was more complicated because of how much has to be considered in the fundamentals, but at least when things happen you can figure out why and the answer isn't "because someone put up a huge buy/sell wall".

Yes, it can be annoying but these whales don't have complete control over the markets, eventually if the underlying trend is strong they get burned and the asset gets redistributed.  TA in such small markets should not be relied on heavily IMHO.  Get a sense of the overall sentiment of market participants (its quite easy to distinguish the chump FUDsters by looking at their post history), research the fundamentals (developer credibility and aptitude, intrinsic qualities of the assset, the desirability in the current marketplace of those qualities or characteristics and gauge the current value vs. potential value) and be prepared to possibly HODL for a period of time unless your assessment of all the previously mentioned things was flawless.

Its a fact that most people make terrible traders because of their inability to govern their emotions, me included, although with practice and financial loses (you can call them lessons) I am getting better.

[CrowdWhale]

Frankly, because of the illiquidity of many cryptocurrencies, i.e., they can easily be broken by one "entity"/trader, one shouldn't put too much weight on trendlines in my opinion.

All the more reason for me to go somewhere that matches my trading style better. Any market maker worth his salt should be defending that trend line.

Whoever you are, and I know you're in here, you SUCK at being a whale. Go beach yourself.

[Monerobuyer0]

Please come down a little my dear Monero! I wanna buy some of you.  

I really don't understand this thinking. If it breaks the trend line convincingly you don't WANT to buy. It makes no sense to me to not buy at the trendline, but to buy just below it. There's a REASON 335k is holding time and time again. It's the bottom of the ascending channel. If people want it to go up they should be defending it aggressively, not trying to break it for a cheaper price.

Not everyone is a trader.  Some are long term holders and just want as much XMR as they can get at as low a cost as possible. 

[MrGood]

Whoever you are, and I know you're in here, you SUCK at being a whale. Go beach yourself.

Now you're getting nasty.

[kurious]

A lot of money in... price in decreasing channel fluctuation with decreasing volume though.

I think money is waiting for the bottom - and it is drumming its fingers waiting to pounce.  

Maybe a move is coming... Soon ;-)

[CrowdWhale]

Oh look, you moved your wall from 430 to 400. Hold on while I go panic dump. :p

What's next, 380 again? You're an idiot.

Now you're getting nasty.

Absolutely. I can get nastier too.

[lolikop]

Because there's no real reason for it to go to 299k unless someone dumps hard or manages to force it down. I don't expect them to succeed and I doubt 335k is the best we'll see. If they DO succeed I will simply lose faith in my (or ANYONE'S) ability to predict these markets when individuals hold such large shares of it, and that will cause me to go elsewhere.

ur to weak for crypto trading u should sell asap im pretty sure u have dreams about xmr while sleeping

do ur self a favour and sell now ur obviously not for the long run

[wpalczynski]

Absolutely. I can get nastier too.

With what aim?

[LucyLovesCrypto]

BTW, the first time I didn't say I was "leaving", I said you wouldn't hear from me. That's because I would have been liquidated by 300k. I took care of that issue.

If that means you are no longer trading on margin that is probably a good thing. Small price swings seem to really stress you out.

[Monerobuyer0]

I would prefer it if XMR rose steadily over time and did not allow margin traders to come in and make big profits off us and then leave, taking our btc away with them.  If the whale is trying to keep our rise more steady by holding the price down when its rising too fast, and punishing margin traders, then more power to him.  

The environment in Monero in 2016 has been great for any long term buy and holder.  Keep it up whales.  Steady rise over time, no huge spikes and dumps.

[vuduchyld]

There's no doubt I made a bad trade, but that really isn't the issue. Trying to break the trend line so you can buy at 250k is the issue. I'm just tired of wasting time on TA in markets that move according to the greed of a small number of individuals. So yeah, even if it doesn't go to 299k I'm pretty close to taking my profits while I still have them. Forex was more complicated because of how much has to be considered in the fundamentals, but at least when things happen you can figure out why and the answer isn't "because someone put up a huge buy/sell wall".

I'm by no means a TA trader, but I do include some technical elements in determining specific entry/exit points.  A couple of observations:

1)  I think this is true everywhere, but especially in crypto, technicals can easily be dwarfed in importance by specific events.
2) Because crypto markets are so thin and easily manipulated (yeah, I said it, and meant it, although not in exactly the same sense that you might think), in my view, crypto frequently overshoots the lines I've drawn.  In other words, if I'm looking to exit a position at .0039 based on my normal analysis, I might make it .003975 instead.  If I'm looking to buy on the way down at .00299, I might make that .00285.  
3)  When I say "analysis" above, that doesn't mean anything CLOSE to what I mean when I say "analysis" when I'm talking about, say, stock in CIT.  For a living, I do valuation in closely-held businesses.  When we're talking about crypto, you don't have earnings (GAAP or normalized), capex requirements, working capital adjustments, and all the other things that would make up a discounted cash flow analysis.  

[CrowdWhale]

ur to weak for crypto trading u should sell asap im pretty sure u have dreams about xmr while sleeping

do ur self a favour and sell now ur obviously not for the long run

Coming from a guy who just posted FUD and said he was out, I find this hypocritical at best.

Absolutely. I can get nastier too.

With what aim?

I assumed he was joking saying "go beach yourself" was getting nasty. Like if I called him a big old meanie or something. I have no intention of getting nasty.

If that means you are no longer trading on margin that is probably a good thing. Small price swings seem to really stress you out.

You're absolutely correct. I didn't want to make an excuse for my bad trade, but I do have one and it involves emotions and substances not related to crypto or trading. In any case, I don't normally use margin and lost the panic mechanism years ago. My trade went bad BEFORE he started doing the things I feel are harmful. I'm not concerned about the dump to 321, which I would normally have predicted. I'm concerned about the clumsy shifting of walls and the obvious attempts to break or buy below the trend line, which I think would destroy confidence in the market for a good while.

None of this matters, because I sincerely doubt he will succeed. 335, 320, or 300 will hold.

[CrowdWhale]

Anyway, a market maker needs to paint the tape in such a way that traders can receive his (or her) signals and do his work for him. Why fight to break a clear support line when you can send out the right signals and let traders do the work for you?

[lolikop]

ur to weak for crypto trading u should sell asap im pretty sure u have dreams about xmr while sleeping

do ur self a favour and sell now ur obviously not for the long run

Coming from a guy who just posted FUD and said he was out, I find this hypocritical at best.

Just like i said ur to weak

[villabacho]

Manipulation isn't buying and selling. I'm not an idiot. It's moving these walls around and trying to push the price around WITHOUT buying and selling, or with excessive pumps/dumps.

Manipulation would mean a deceptive action, but moving walls around happens in public. Besides the psychological effects, there might even be an element of rationality behind doing this: you can suddenly change the total margin value of other margin traders, and potentially cause forced liquidation on some of them. That is, playing by the rules that everyone knows, moving walls around could sometimes be a reasonable strategy even neglecting psychology.

Sure, playing games like this causes short term price swings that do not reflect the fundamental value. But hey, the value of a commodity on a market always is a mix of its fundamental value and some "playing games" white noise - games that often are not manipulative (deceptive), but playing by the rules in some creative way.

[CrowdWhale]

you can suddenly change the total margin value of other margin traders, and potentially cause forced liquidation on some of them.

I hadn't thought of that. I'm getting to the point where it's difficult for me to enter and exit fully, but I'm not to the size where I'd need a huge wall to avoid a margin call. I also find it difficult to imagine people using margin when they have hundreds of BTC. I'll have to think about that and watch to see if there are sudden market orders when the walls disappear. I don't remember any, but I wasn't looking for them.

There's also a chance he's a big part of the support at 335k and is buying small batches while pushing down. I would expect him to split his orders more effectively to conceal them, though.

Anyway, whatever. I had no idea so many people were going to respond to me bitching about the bear whale. I'd prefer to just drop the subject.

[CrowdWhale]

Just like i said ur to weak

Since I'm nice I'll be the one to tell you you're making a fool of yourself and should probably just shut your hole.

[meme magic]

trading crypto long term seems to facilitate the development of something akin to stockholm syndrome.