[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rangedriver]

iCEBREAKER you are a DASH master today!

Bahahahaha. Randomization seemingly has a sense of humour. 

[cAPSLOCK]

I think he should keep it. 😊

[volyova]

I registered for your game and found it to have terrible graphics & made little to no sense. am I doing something wrong? I didn't even see "buy markka" advertised

The game is not the same as the pump. It's the game that we are pumping and other guys decide if the pump is important, so far they have deemed it not to be. But the (M, EUR, BTC, XMR value registered in the game) is equivalent to $15 million and the game marketcap (M alone) is $12.7 million.

Don't care about the graphics (or lack thereof). CK is just like poloniex or any other, except that we don't do KYC/AML. The game is a bonus.

How can you not care about the graphics??

[kernels10]

I registered for your game and found it to have terrible graphics & made little to no sense. am I doing something wrong? I didn't even see "buy markka" advertised

The game is not the same as the pump. It's the game that we are pumping and other guys decide if the pump is important, so far they have deemed it not to be. But the (M, EUR, BTC, XMR value registered in the game) is equivalent to $15 million and the game marketcap (M alone) is $12.7 million.

Don't care about the graphics (or lack thereof). CK is just like poloniex or any other, except that we don't do KYC/AML. The game is a bonus.

How can you not care about the graphics??

The UI is buggy and lags.

[Hueristic]

iCEBREAKER you are a DASH master today!

Bahahahaha. Randomization seemingly has a sense of humour. 

Holy shit those tags are funny!  Dashmaster Ice. Lawl

[kernels10]

iCEBREAKER you are a DASH master today!

Bahahahaha. Randomization seemingly has a sense of humour.  

Holy shit those tags are funny!  Dashmaster Ice. Lawl

Maaaan WTF. "Dash flunky" :/

also, "Golem advocate" ?? Never touched that shit in my life.


Is this some april fools shit? lol

[owlcatz]

iCEBREAKER you are a DASH master today!

Bahahahaha. Randomization seemingly has a sense of humour.  

Holy shit those tags are funny!  Dashmaster Ice. Lawl

Maaaan WTF. "Dash flunky" :/

also, "Golem advocate" ?? Never touched that shit in my life.


Is this some april fools shit? lol

thank Theymos - yes.. it's all random and stupid - happy fool's day!

[iCEBREAKER]

iCEBREAKER you are a DASH master today!

Bahahahaha. Randomization seemingly has a sense of humour.  

Holy shit those tags are funny!  Dashmaster Ice. Lawl

Maaaan WTF. "Dash flunky" :/

also, "Golem advocate" ?? Never touched that shit in my life.


Is this some april fools shit? lol

thank Theymos - yes.. it's all random and stupid - happy fool's day!

Once again our thermos keeps it hot in here for April 1.  His annual pranks keep getting better!  ^.^

[ArticMine]

OK it seems people are uninterested in the Markka (CK) pump.

Is there any way I can help you to make it possible to short it?

Is registering to Crypto Kingdom (takes about 2 minutes) a too big difficulty if you want to make a killing (not!) shorting Markka (it has pumped +1000% in 5 weeks now)?

Why is CK going off the XMR standard?  Doesn't that make Markka fiat, like WoW Gold?

If Eulora can keep using their BTC-based economy, why can't CK stay on XMR?

The main reason that Crypto Kingdom had to go off the XMR standard is that XMR is hard currency. By August of 2016 Crypto Kingdom had built a very large XMR denominated debt in the form of Consul Bonds (CON). This XMR denominated debt was the result of paying for among other things the development of the game. The equity, CK gold was, fixed effectively leaving only XMR denominated debt as the way to raise capital for development and improvement of the game. What had to occur and occurred was a conversion of the XMR denominated debt into equity since it was completely unsustainable. This was a accomplished by converting CON (XMR debt) into CK together with the voting / equity component of the old CK gold also into CK. The latest move is to use CK as the in game currency. The best analogy I could think of would be World of Warcraft or Second Life but where stock in Blizzard Entertainment, instead of WoW gold, or stock in Linden Labs, instead of Linden Dollars, was used as the in game currency.  This makes CK actually very unique since equity in the game itself is used as the in game currency.

My take is that the "CK pump" is to a large degree due to freeing Crypto - Kingdom from its XMR denominated debt albatross. In this way Crypto Kingdom would not be impacted by a crash in DASH/XMR which would likely wipe out a holder of XMR denominated debt.

Edit:  DASH/XMR https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash

[aminorex]

Thank you for that.  It is usefully informative.  It would be even (and much) better with scale alignment.

To me it seems folly to analyze XMR denominated in BTC, although I was myself subject to this folly until recently.  The fundamentals are much more easily recognized using gold or any major fiat currency - I tend to use USD - as numeraire.

XMRUSD is pretty stable at $20, so in my (1% of XMR holdings) trading position, at present, I buy below 19 and sell above 21.  

You might recall that I anticipated recent levels on this approximate time scale last summer, by using Fisher's quantity theory, as calibrated by Alphabay volume estimators.  I have not done any further analysis yet, so I can't presently make any principled quantitative predictions.  As time permits and data allows I may do so soon.  My intuition is that $25 will become strong support by June.  The upside asymmetry is growing rapidly due to exogenous risk factors, but support levels should continue to be determined by economic use in dark net markets during the near future.  As they grow, so will XMR's utility value.

Meanwhile, some qualitative logic guides me, none of it new, and all of it supported by the evidence of the past few months, since my previous prediction:

1. Masternode (dash, pivx, crown) anonymity is (1) honeypot technology, and (2) a scheme for bleeding the economy to death by rents.  No such system can form a stable economy.  Any price runs are bubbles.  While shorting is supremely risky, and requires a strong and steady hand, I find it emotionally gratifying and financially lucrative.  I actually had a masternode for a while, but soon repented and sold it because I could not stomach making gains by deceit and oppression.  (I have made charitable donations in excess of those gains as a sop to my bruised conscience.)

2. Transparent blockchains expose their users to extortion and robbery.  Consequently they involve unwarranted risk, and can not persist in their moneyness.

3. App coins are generally a deceitful way to fund an Enterprise.  "Turing completeness" is ludicrous snake oil and there is still no compelling use for "gas", after years of waiting.  It is all dot-com hopium smoke.

4. I have long predicted the beginnings of the demise of the debt-based fiat currency system to become perceptible in 2017q4.  I will soon be proven either correct or incorrect, in the sense of being early, but even if my point-estimate proves over-eager, the underlying demographic deflationary implosion, resource exhaustion, systematic energy bleed, and exponential inflationary debt- (and inevitable supply-) explosion will reach a climax when the Boomer retirement peak arrives around 2024.  USD lost most of its value since 1971 (when Nixon broke the tie to gold).  It will lose an even larger proportion, and likely in fact ALL of it's value in excess of hard reserves times some yet-unmeasurable confidence*utility multiplier, on the 2024 time scale.  Crypto and hard assets are the place to be, and money is only beginning to realize this.  Those ahead of this curve will enjoy the fruits of their foresight during the next 7-10 years - if they can stay alive that long.

By a process of elimination I recommend to my friends and family an allocation of 20% xmr, 30% precious metals and/or cultural artifacts, 20% agricultural real estate (Chile being the top of my list), 10% long equities, 10% East Asia/Pacific bonds, and 10% strategic shorts (sovereign bonds, financial equities esp.) for long term money.  

The BTC fork will imply substantial volatility, yes, but that will end soon enough.  Underlying global systemic instabilities, however, will persist, compound, indeed explode, with much greater impact, albeit on a longer time-scale.  I think speculation time is rapidly coming to a close.  It is time for young and old, rich and poor alike to batten down the hatches and shelter from the coming multi-generational storm.  Given the extreme dislocations of financial metrics from the norms of millennia past which now prevail, this one may be the single greatest world-historical financial event since the Industrial Revolution, or the Black Death. There will be winners and losers.

[Hueristic]

...
1. Masternode (dash, pic, crown) anonymity is (1) honeypot technology, ...

Hah, Good to see you posting!

And a Decreed DEV as well. Lol

Not just here for April Fools right?

[elrippo]

You might recall that I anticipated recent levels on this approximate time scale last summer, by using Fisher's quantity theory, as calibrated by Alphabay volume estimators.  I have not done any further analysis yet, so I can't presently make any principled quantitative predictions.  As time permits and data allows I may do so soon.  My intuition is that $25 will become strong support by June.  

The BTC fork will imply substantial volatility, yes, but that will end soon enough.  Underlying global systemic instabilities, however, will persist, compound, indeed explode, with much greater impact, albeit on a longer time-scale.  I think speculation time is rapidly coming to a close.  It is time for young and old, rich and poor alike to batten down the hatches and shelter from the coming multi-generational storm.  Given the extreme dislocations of financial metrics from the norms of millennia past which now prevail, this one may be the single greatest world-historical financial event since the Industrial Revolution, or the Black Death. There will be winners and losers.

Nice to read you again, learned a few things since your last post 

[CTTE]

It's nice to wake up to an Aminorex post in the Speculation thread!

So, do you feel the BTC fork is inevitable or will this somehow get resolved?  And how will both possible outcomes affect the price of Monero in USD terms?

Edit: I am working through a mis-timed short position on DArSH. I couldn't believe it was so high, then it went higher, and then higher still! Who in their right minds pays $115 for that scam coin? Looks like I may yet prevail!

[kellrobinson]

You don't recommend any BTC allocation?

Apparently not, because his other recommendations add up to 100%.  See below:

By a process of elimination I recommend to my friends and family an allocation of 20% xmr, 30% precious metals and/or cultural artifacts, 20% agricultural real estate (Chile being the top of my list), 10% long equities, 10% East Asia/Pacific bonds, and 10% strategic shorts (sovereign bonds, financial equities esp.) for long term money. 

[KeyJockey]

Welcome back once again, Aminorex... epic post, such a treat LOL

The BTC fork will imply substantial volatility, yes, but that will end soon enough...

Hmm but so the fork will happen (?) and "volatility end soon enough" yet you have no allocation of BTC in recommended percentages? Is that meant to imply that you believe the fork will just outright kill bitcoin, or at least destroy most of it's current $1K-per-unit store of value?

My crypto portfolio allocation is still tilted towards BTC (as long as HoneyBadger has apparently still been able to achieve ATH's recently, in spite of all the block-size arguments) but the ratio of XMR percentage has been gradually, organically, increasing over the last few months... getting closer to 50-50 even now, so maybe it's time for that to flip and go majority XMR?  So that would mean BTC is soon to be the "alt" position...??  Hmm...

P.S. {Edit} Ha!  My April Fool's tags I got are both "Monero Chief Scientist" AND "Bitcoin CEO"  LOL  Gotta make a screenshot of that for sure heheheh



 

[mastertrader777]

Hey guys,

Ready for some action?

Cheers,

MasterTrader777

[kurious]

Hey guys,

Ready for some action?

Cheers,

MasterTrader777

NEM follower?  Quite a rare tag

[jwinterm]

$100 difference between China and Gdax/Gemini now on Bitcoin:

Bitstamp last: 1,077.70, vol: 9,066.7 | BTC-E last: 1,075.60, vol: 9,391.7 | Gemini last: 1,084.77, vol: 4,024.6 | GDAX price: 1,083.00 | Bitfinex last: 1,084.20, vol: 23,954.5 | BTCC last: 988.57, vol: 9,636.7 | Huobi last: 995.16, vol: 9,099.3 |

and most alts sagging for last few days. Does this look like BTC pump coming, another round of alt pumping, or flatlining for next week or three?

I kind of think flatlining along with BTC drifting below $1k on all exchanges.

[kurious]

Hey guys,

Ready for some action?

Cheers,

MasterTrader777

NEM follower?  Quite a rare tag

Damn, I got 'Litecoin professional'  I hold zero LTC.  I was hoping for a more interesting one than that!  Had my fingers crossed for XMR fanboy

[volyova]

Hey guys,

Ready for some action?

Cheers,

MasterTrader777

NEM follower?  Quite a rare tag

Damn, I got 'Litecoin professional'  I hold zero LTC.  I was hoping for a more interesting one than that!  Had my fingers crossed for XMR fanboy

At least you didn't get "Dash flunky".