[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rangedriver]

21st June 2018 Predictions
Top 10 Market Cap Order (irrespective of price/marketcap)

1.       ETH
2.       BTC
3.       NEO
4.       XRP
5.       BCH
6.       XMR
7.       ADA
8.       LTC
9.       XLM
10.     QTUM



Good luck everyone! ♥

[06/21/18 00:00 UT]

[ultegra]

There are all these loadable visa card for BTC why don't we have one yet?

Someone Tell them Fucking whales to get their shit together!

Visa withdrew the license for all companies offering a BTC linked visa card a few weeks ago - so all Visa BTC cards are now extinct. It took me weeks to get my funds released. Also Bitwala had their bank cease all btc to fiat withdrawals.

Bitwala are claiming though that they are very close to releasing the first BTC bank account, so your BTC account will be linked to a Bitwala debit card and Bitwala bank account...but we shall see.

I think BTC to Fiat will become increasingly difficult.

[Hueristic]

There are all these loadable visa card for BTC why don't we have one yet?

Someone Tell them Fucking whales to get their shit together!

Visa withdrew the license for all companies offering a BTC linked visa card a few weeks ago - so all Visa BTC cards are now extinct. It took me weeks to get my funds released. Also Bitwala had their bank cease all btc to fiat withdrawals.

Bitwala are claiming though that they are very close to releasing the first BTC bank account, so your BTC account will be linked to a Bitwala debit card and Bitwala bank account...but we shall see.

I think BTC to Fiat will become increasingly difficult.

Thanks alot for this info. Looks like the NWO is putting the screws to us.

[prabakharras]

Yes despite the bloodbath market, Monero is well and strong
look at its BTC price https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc
it is strong stable. I reaffirm my stand

[kurious]

21st June 2018 Predictions
Top 10 Market Cap Order (irrespective of price/marketcap)

1.       ETH
2.       BTC
3.       NEO
4.       XRP
5.       BCH
6.       XMR
7.       ADA
8.       LTC
9.       XLM
10.     QTUM



Good luck everyone! ♥

[06/21/18 00:00 UT]

Always enjoy you sticking your neck out with impossibly unpredictable market forecasts.  You've been right enough in the past though to warrant a reckless fresh one...

Merit for fun.

What I am very interested in is firstly, BTC and your 'flippening' prediction. Then, secondly, Monero's place - which I DO hope you're correct on.   Right now, personally I'd be happy just to be top 10 (and above Dash).  That would make my day and it's not too much of  stretch to hope for, either.

[rdp]

There are all these loadable visa card for BTC why don't we have one yet?

Someone Tell them Fucking whales to get their shit together!

Visa withdrew the license for all companies offering a BTC linked visa card a few weeks ago - so all Visa BTC cards are now extinct. It took me weeks to get my funds released. Also Bitwala had their bank cease all btc to fiat withdrawals.

Bitwala are claiming though that they are very close to releasing the first BTC bank account, so your BTC account will be linked to a Bitwala debit card and Bitwala bank account...but we shall see.

I think BTC to Fiat will become increasingly difficult.

Thanks alot for this info. Looks like the NWO is putting the screws to us.

That is why I've been saying we need to use XMR as way of exchange, not value hold. I try my best to use available services in XMR, even if it is a little more expensive, even if I have to put fiat into XMR just to use it to buy something, instead of buying directly, even if receiving part is going to get fiat.

But maybe the most important thing is pushing where we can to make that happens, and that means where we can accept XMR instead of fiat and try to force it at most.

This is the only possible outcome to our success.

[Gaius Cryptus Tradius]

There will definitely be a Monero rise as it has been with ETH, time will come when everyone sees Privacy coins are the future

[Hueristic]

So I had forgot I had a old bitstamp account and tried to recover it.

Lost Login Information

We have sent a new password and customer ID to your e-mail address if it's valid.

You should change your password as soon as you log in for the first time.

No email has been received after 10 minutes.

[rdp]

So I had forgot I had a old bitstamp account and tried to recover it.

Lost Login Information

We have sent a new password and customer ID to your e-mail address if it's valid.

You should change your password as soon as you log in for the first time.

No email has been received after 10 minutes.

It is not just fiat, I have requested a XMR withdrawn from Bitfinex and it has been more than 5 days and it is still "processing".

[MetropolisHastings12]

Following the advice of others which seemed sound to me, I buy and hold Monero in cold stores etched on to iridium plates stored on three continents using a redundant variation of Shamir, for the most part but also trade swings on vega volatility with 5% of holdings.

My long term views are based primarily on fairly standard economic models for money supply, for the PPP correlation of currencies modulo RFR differences, estimation of the growth rate of DNMs and their adoption curves, and of reserve demand levels for digital assets.  Given such estimates, parameterized by event timing, one derives a distribution surface which can be integrated out to determine the rNPV of Monero.  When it is below the current clearing price, XMR is undervalued, and vice versa contrariwise.  The first order estimate is roughly 3k USD in 2020,  when I plan to begin divesting 10% of contemporaneous holdings annually.  (The distribution is fairly wide, however, and the horizon obscured by intervening construction.)  Naively, i.e. without risk adjustment over the scenario distribution, that provides an NPV of ~2700.  The correct risk adjustment is basically impossible to make without Monte Carlo (baccarat), and has huge sensitivity to model missteps, both parametric and structural, so I won't go in to detail on it, except to say that in the end, over that tenor, integrating over scenarios, I get an rNPV of ~2100.  In general it is the high weighting of the model's tails which makes the estimates so high.

I discount for model error by a factor of 10, which is just a dead reckoning based on past experience with model error and leg lengths during Fashion Week.  Consequently, today I buy for the long term under 210.  A simple volatility trading strategy is to sell an aluminum ladder based on  z score, and to buy when the valuation discountings yield an undervaluation judgement.  I last sold at 400, and when I sell again will be determined by the price path after the manner of my poker instructor, Feynmann.  If it rises too high too fast, I start selling from the 5%, and buy them back on the opposite ladder, up to the penultimate rung.  Residing in Chile, I can hedge these swings with options on correlated futures in an SPV without incurring the Tobin tax.

[jwinterm]

Anyone think the Circle acquisition of Poloniex will have any significant price impact in mid term. I expect they must be planning to become a fiat/altcoin gateway, given that Bittrex is apparently adding USD deposits and Coinbase is supposed to be adding more alts as well. Between the three, if XMR is available for trade/purchase with dollars on all three, I think it could provide a decent infusion of fresh cash.

[owlcatz]

Anyone think the Circle acquisition of Poloniex will have any significant price impact in mid term. I expect they must be planning to become a fiat/altcoin gateway, given that Bittrex is apparently adding USD deposits and Coinbase is supposed to be adding more alts as well. Between the three, if XMR is available for trade/purchase with dollars on all three, I think it could provide a decent infusion of fresh cash.

Hi, where did you hear about circle and polo? I can't find any news or anything anywhere, do you have a link maybe? Thanks

[Billy Bunter]

Following the advice of others which seemed sound to me, I buy and hold Monero in cold stores etched on to iridium plates stored on three continents using a redundant variation of Shamir, for the most part but also trade swings on vega volatility with 5% of holdings.

My long term views are based primarily on fairly standard economic models for money supply, for the PPP correlation of currencies modulo RFR differences, estimation of the growth rate of DNMs and their adoption curves, and of reserve demand levels for digital assets.  Given such estimates, parameterized by event timing, one derives a distribution surface which can be integrated out to determine the rNPV of Monero.  When it is below the current clearing price, XMR is undervalued, and vice versa contrariwise.  The first order estimate is roughly 3k USD in 2020,  when I plan to begin divesting 10% of contemporaneous holdings annually.  (The distribution is fairly wide, however, and the horizon obscured by intervening construction.)  Naively, i.e. without risk adjustment over the scenario distribution, that provides an NPV of ~2700.  The correct risk adjustment is basically impossible to make without Monte Carlo (baccarat), and has huge sensitivity to model missteps, both parametric and structural, so I won't go in to detail on it, except to say that in the end, over that tenor, integrating over scenarios, I get an rNPV of ~2100.  In general it is the high weighting of the model's tails which makes the estimates so high.

I discount for model error by a factor of 10, which is just a dead reckoning based on past experience with model error and leg lengths during Fashion Week.  Consequently, today I buy for the long term under 210.  A simple volatility trading strategy is to sell an aluminum ladder based on  z score, and to buy when the valuation discountings yield an undervaluation judgement.  I last sold at 400, and when I sell again will be determined by the price path after the manner of my poker instructor, Feynmann.  If it rises too high too fast, I start selling from the 5%, and buy them back on the opposite ladder, up to the penultimate rung.  Residing in Chile, I can hedge these swings with options on correlated futures in an SPV without incurring the Tobin tax.

Well I lol'd. Have some merit (for all the good it does).

[jwinterm]

Anyone think the Circle acquisition of Poloniex will have any significant price impact in mid term. I expect they must be planning to become a fiat/altcoin gateway, given that Bittrex is apparently adding USD deposits and Coinbase is supposed to be adding more alts as well. Between the three, if XMR is available for trade/purchase with dollars on all three, I think it could provide a decent infusion of fresh cash.

Hi, where did you hear about circle and polo? I can't find any news or anything anywhere, do you have a link maybe? Thanks

Saw article retweeted by fluffyponzi on tweeter yesterday, but apparently it was fake news:
https://twitter.com/AriDavidPaul/status/959598411954651136

[phishead]

With monero at rock bottom prices, 0.02 XMR per square is a steal! (we want more participants)

1st Annual Super Bowlero Pool
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2808377.0

Join up guys it's cheap and completely random.

*picture of a goat*

Boating accident, shmoating accident... Be a man and lose your monroes while watching a Goat passing the pig skin irresponsibly, with me, Monero's loveable bookie.. phishead

Edit: to stay on topic, this is a good summary of how I feel about the markets right now

[rinus]

https://longforecast.com/monero-price-prediction-2018-2019-2020-2021-xmr-to-usd

What is this based on? A few days ago there forecast was a lot, a lot higher

[Hueristic]

Following the advice of others which seemed sound to me, I buy and hold Monero in cold stores etched on to iridium plates stored on three continents using a redundant variation of Shamir, for the most part but also trade swings on vega volatility with 5% of holdings.

My long term views are based primarily on fairly standard economic models for money supply, for the PPP correlation of currencies modulo RFR differences, estimation of the growth rate of DNMs and their adoption curves, and of reserve demand levels for digital assets.  Given such estimates, parameterized by event timing, one derives a distribution surface which can be integrated out to determine the rNPV of Monero.  When it is below the current clearing price, XMR is undervalued, and vice versa contrariwise.  The first order estimate is roughly 3k USD in 2020,  when I plan to begin divesting 10% of contemporaneous holdings annually.  (The distribution is fairly wide, however, and the horizon obscured by intervening construction.)  Naively, i.e. without risk adjustment over the scenario distribution, that provides an NPV of ~2700.  The correct risk adjustment is basically impossible to make without Monte Carlo (baccarat), and has huge sensitivity to model missteps, both parametric and structural, so I won't go in to detail on it, except to say that in the end, over that tenor, integrating over scenarios, I get an rNPV of ~2100.  In general it is the high weighting of the model's tails which makes the estimates so high.

I discount for model error by a factor of 10, which is just a dead reckoning based on past experience with model error and leg lengths during Fashion Week.  Consequently, today I buy for the long term under 210.  A simple volatility trading strategy is to sell an aluminum ladder based on  z score, and to buy when the valuation discountings yield an undervaluation judgement.  I last sold at 400, and when I sell again will be determined by the price path after the manner of my poker instructor, Feynmann.  If it rises too high too fast, I start selling from the 5%, and buy them back on the opposite ladder, up to the penultimate rung.  Residing in Chile, I can hedge these swings with options on correlated futures in an SPV without incurring the Tobin tax.

God thats alot of work! I just guess.

I appear to have spawned another parody account. Could use some work on the Sig and Text though. Well, that was quick.

I love it, there was real effort put into this one! I may have to turn sigs on to see it.

With monero at rock bottom prices, 0.02 XMR per square is a steal! (we want more participants)

1st Annual Super Bowlero Pool
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2808377.0

Join up guys it's cheap and completely random.

*picture of a goat*

Boating accident, shmoating accident... Be a man and lose your monroes while watching a Goat passing the pig skin irresponsibly, with me, Monero's loveable bookie.. phishead

Edit: to stay on topic, this is a good summary of how I feel about the markets right now

Your a horrible bookie, you don't get any Vig!

https://longforecast.com/monero-price-prediction-2018-2019-2020-2021-xmr-to-usd

What is this based on? A few days ago there forecast was a lot, a lot higher

They have no clue what they are talking about, I would completely discount that retarded site it cannot use those algo's for crypto yet. maybe those algo's will be good in a few years but then the baseline they will be using from then will be wildly different than what they are forecasting now. Is there anywhere I can bet my home and everything including my tighty whitey's against their forcast?

[ozkraut]

I appear to have spawned another parody account. Could use some work on the Sig and Text though. Well, that was quick.

Lol, I was just about to call 'you' out on the above. People have too much time on their hands it seems.

[explorer]

I appear to have spawned another parody account. Could use some work on the Sig and Text though. Well, that was quick.

Lol, I was just about to call 'you' out on the above. People have too much time on their hands it seems.

I lol'd by the second sentence     Good clean fun.  Doesn't matter if its a Cargo Cult rendition, the farther off it is while remaining recognizable the funnier it is.

[owlcatz]

Anyone think the Circle acquisition of Poloniex will have any significant price impact in mid term. I expect they must be planning to become a fiat/altcoin gateway, given that Bittrex is apparently adding USD deposits and Coinbase is supposed to be adding more alts as well. Between the three, if XMR is available for trade/purchase with dollars on all three, I think it could provide a decent infusion of fresh cash.

Hi, where did you hear about circle and polo? I can't find any news or anything anywhere, do you have a link maybe? Thanks

Saw article retweeted by fluffyponzi on tweeter yesterday, but apparently it was fake news:
https://twitter.com/AriDavidPaul/status/959598411954651136

Thanks, and thank lord LOL