[XMR] Monero Speculation

[explorer]

Anyone think the Circle acquisition of Poloniex will have any significant price impact in mid term. I expect they must be planning to become a fiat/altcoin gateway, given that Bittrex is apparently adding USD deposits and Coinbase is supposed to be adding more alts as well. Between the three, if XMR is available for trade/purchase with dollars on all three, I think it could provide a decent infusion of fresh cash.

Hi, where did you hear about circle and polo? I can't find any news or anything anywhere, do you have a link maybe? Thanks

Saw article retweeted by fluffyponzi on tweeter yesterday, but apparently it was fake news:
https://twitter.com/AriDavidPaul/status/959598411954651136

Thanks, and thank lord LOL

So you are saying, litecoin is taking over polo, and absorbing the monero project?

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[Globb0]

You know what I been thinking.

Maybe its not such a coincidence everyone's funds got locked down left right and centre with KYC changes just before the pump up of it all.

[Millionero]

Our friend MetropolisHastings12 has a sense of humor.  I like the Fermat sig.  
And the nym tells you how he came up with the text
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolis%E2%80%93Hastings_algorithm
A few years ago I played around with Markov Chain generation of text from samples, which creates gobbledygook that replicates the style of the original without any of the semantic content.  There are tools available, if you just google it.
So our newfound friend MetropolisHastings12 is a sock puppet that a regular from this forum, no doubt, is wearing on his antic little digits (pun intended).
I must say that to create such a tidy product from the small sample of aminorex's posts is an admirable accomplishment.  I had to use megs of text sample to get a decent result with the primitive Markov Chain tools I used.  Like this

Code:

// main.cpp --
//
// This file implements a simple character level markov text generator.  It
// reads sample text from standard input, then generates any number of
// K-order markov texts to a series of files.
//
//
// Usage:
//
//      markov [options] < sample_text
//
//          --order=K           Specify the number of preceeding tokens to 
//                              consider in determining the next token.
//                              Default is 3.
//          --outputsize=N      Number of bytes to output.  The generator will
//                              not necessarily generate exactly this many 
//                              bytes.  For example, it may wander too close
//                              to the end of the original input when
//                              generating output, and lose the ability to
//                              generate more text.  Also, the generator 
//                              always tries to end the file with a newline,
//                              so it will continue to generate output after
//                              hitting N bytes, until a newline is output
//                              or 2*N bytes have been output.  Default is
//                              10000 bytes.
//          --inputsize=N       Maximum number of bytes of input to read.
//                              Default is 5,000,000 bytes.
//          --setsize=N         Number of output samples to produce.  Files
//                              named "output.0" through "output.N-1" will
//                              be created.  Default is 1.
//
// Copyright (c) 2004-2009 Electric Cloud, Inc.
// All rights reserved.
// Redistribution and use in source and binary forms, with or without
// modification, are permitted provided that the following conditions are met:
//
//     * Redistributions of source code must retain the above copyright notice,
//       this list of conditions and the following disclaimer.
//     * Redistributions in binary form must reproduce the above copyright
//       notice, this list of conditions and the following disclaimer in the
//       documentation and/or other materials provided with the distribution.
//     * Neither the name of Electric Cloud nor the names of its employees may
//       be used to endorse or promote products derived from this software
//       without specific prior written permission.
//
// THIS SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED BY THE COPYRIGHT HOLDERS AND CONTRIBUTORS "AS IS"
// AND ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE
// IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE
// ARE DISCLAIMED. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE COPYRIGHT HOLDER OR CONTRIBUTORS BE
// LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, EXEMPLARY, OR
// CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, PROCUREMENT OF
// SUBSTITUTE GOODS OR SERVICES; LOSS OF USE, DATA, OR PROFITS; OR BUSINESS
// INTERRUPTION) HOWEVER CAUSED AND ON ANY THEORY OF LIABILITY, WHETHER IN
// CONTRACT, STRICT LIABILITY, OR TORT (INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE)
// ARISING IN ANY WAY OUT OF THE USE OF THIS SOFTWARE, EVEN IF ADVISED OF THE
// POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGE.


#include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h>
#include <string.h>
#include <sys/time.h>
#include <getopt.h>
#include <unistd.h>


using namespace std;


static int K = 3;


//----------------------------------------------------------------------------
// strcmpIndirect
//
//      Compare two strings given by pointers to pointers to the strings.
//      This is just a simple wrapper around strcmp which accomodates an
//      extra level of indirection.
//----------------------------------------------------------------------------


int strcmpIndirect(const void *a, const void *b) {
    const char *stringA, *stringB;
    stringA = *((char **)a);
    stringB = *((char **)b);


    return strcmp(stringA, stringB);
}


// The following enum supplies integer values for our command-line options.


enum {
    MARKOV_OPTIONS_INPUT_SIZE = 500,
    MARKOV_OPTIONS_ORDER,
    MARKOV_OPTIONS_OUTPUT_SIZE,
    MARKOV_OPTIONS_NUMBER_OF_SAMPLES,
    MARKOV_OPTIONS_HELP
};


// Our list of commmand-line options.


static struct option MARKOV_OPTIONS[] = {
    { "inputsize",      1,      0,      MARKOV_OPTIONS_INPUT_SIZE },
    { "order",          1,      0,      MARKOV_OPTIONS_ORDER },
    { "outputsize",     1,      0,      MARKOV_OPTIONS_OUTPUT_SIZE },
    { "setsize",        1,      0,      MARKOV_OPTIONS_NUMBER_OF_SAMPLES },
    { "help",           0,      0,      MARKOV_OPTIONS_HELP },
    { 0,                0,      0,      0}
};


static void usage(char *argv[])
{
    char *tail = strrchr(argv[0], '/');
    if (tail == NULL) {
        tail = argv[0];
    } else {
        tail = tail + 1;
    }
    fprintf(stderr, 
"markov\n"
"Generate letter-level Markov text based on sample text read from standard\n"
"input, writing to output files named output.*.\n\n"
"Usage:\n"
"%s [options ...]\n\n"
"Valid options are:\n\n"
"    --order=K            Number of preceeding characters to consider when\n"
"                         generating the next character (default 3).\n"
"    --outputsize=N       Number of characters to generate in the output\n"
"                         file (default 10000).\n"
"    --setsize=N          Number of output files to generate (default 1).\n"
            "\n"
            , tail);
    return;
}


int main(int argc, char *argv[])
{
    int MAX_CHARS = 5000000;
    int OUTPUT_CHARS = 10000;
    int SET_SIZE = 1;
    extern char *optarg;


    bool done = false;
    while (!done) {
        switch (getopt_long(argc, argv, "", MARKOV_OPTIONS, 0)) {
            case MARKOV_OPTIONS_INPUT_SIZE: {
                MAX_CHARS = atoi(optarg);
                break;
            }


            case MARKOV_OPTIONS_ORDER: {
                K = atoi(optarg);
                break;
            }


            case MARKOV_OPTIONS_OUTPUT_SIZE: {
                OUTPUT_CHARS = atoi(optarg);
                break;
            }


            case MARKOV_OPTIONS_NUMBER_OF_SAMPLES: {
                SET_SIZE = atoi(optarg);
                break;
            }


            case MARKOV_OPTIONS_HELP: {
                usage(argv);
                return 1;
            }


            case -1: {
                done = true;
                break;
            }


            default: {
                fprintf(stderr, "bad option\n");
                usage(argv);
                return 1;
            }
        }
    }
    
    char *input = new char[MAX_CHARS];
    char **suffixes = new char *[MAX_CHARS];
    char *output = new char[OUTPUT_CHARS * 2];


    // Read as much input as we are willing to read.


    int bytesRead = read(0, input, MAX_CHARS - 1);
    if (bytesRead < 0) {
        fprintf(stderr, "markov: error reading input data, exiting.\n");
        return 1;
    }


    if (bytesRead == 0) {
        fprintf(stderr, "markov: no input data, exiting.\n");
        return 1;
    }


    input[bytesRead] = 0;


    // Set up the suffix array.  Each element in this array points to a 
    // distinct character in the input.


    fprintf(stderr, "markov: initializing suffix array.\n");
    for (int i = 0; i < bytesRead; ++i) {
        suffixes = &(input);
    }


    // Now sort the array to bring suffixes with similar prefixes together.
    // We'll use a qsort with a special strcmp that adds a level of 
    // indirection, so we can sort the pointers.


    fprintf(stderr, "markov: sorting suffix array.\n");
    qsort(suffixes, bytesRead, sizeof(char *), strcmpIndirect);


    // Seed the random number generator.


    struct timeval now;
    gettimeofday(&now, 0);
    srand(now.tv_usec);


    for (int current = 0 ; current < SET_SIZE ; ++current) {
        // Seed the output with a random sequence of K characters from the
        // input.


        int seedStart = (int) ((bytesRead / 2) * rand() / (RAND_MAX + 1.0));
        int index = 0;
        memset(output, 0, OUTPUT_CHARS * 2);


        for (index = 0; index < K; ++index) {
            output[index] = input[index + seedStart];
        }


        // Now output approximately OUTPUT_CHARS characters.  We say
        // approximately because we will only stop output if we have
        // just written a newline, to try to guarantee well-formed
        // output.  This means that in general, we will output more
        // than OUTPUT_CHARS characters.


        done = false;
        while (!done && (index < (OUTPUT_CHARS * 2))) {
            if (index % 250 == 0) {
                write(2, ".", 1);
            }


            // First search the suffix array for the first suffix with the
            // prefix output[index - K].


            char *prefix = &(output[index - K]);


            int l = -1;
            int u = bytesRead;
            while ((l + 1) != u) {
                int m = (l + u) / 2;
                if (strncmp(suffixes[m], prefix, K) < 0) {
                    l = m;
                } else {
                    u = m;
                }
            }


            // "u" now holds the index of the first suffix that
            // matches.  Of all the suffixes with this prefix, pick
            // one at random.


            int choice = 0;
            for (int i = 0; suffixes[u + i] 
                         && strncmp(suffixes, prefix, K) == 0; ++i) {
                if ((rand() % (i + 1)) == 0) {
                    choice = i;
                }
            }


            // Now take the K+1'th character of the chosen suffix.  If this
            // character is the null terminator, then we're done.  If this 
            // character is a newline and we have output at least OUTPUT_CHARS
            // characters, then we're done.  Otherwise, we loop.


            switch (suffixes[u + choice][K]) {
                case '\0':
                    // We happened to find the suffix that starts
                    // exactly K characters from the end of the input.
                    // If this is the only suffix that matches the
                    // prefix, then we're done, regardless of how many
                    // characters of output we've generated.
                    // Otherwise, we'll loop and try again.


                    if ((choice == 0) 
                            && (strncmp(suffixes[u + 1], prefix, K)) != 0) {
                        done = true;
                    }
                    break;


                case '\n':
                    if (index >= OUTPUT_CHARS) {
                        done = true;
                    }


                    // DELIBERATELY FALL THROUGH: WE WANT THE NEWLINE
                    // IN OUTPUT.


                default:
                    output[index] = suffixes[K];
                    index++;
                    break;
            }
        }


        char filename[32];
        sprintf(filename, "output.%d", current);
        FILE *f = fopen(filename, "w");
        fprintf(f, "%s", output);
        fclose(f);


        write(2, "done\n", 5);
    }
    return 0;
}

which chains characters, not words.  Set K to your desired Markov Chain length.
Speaking of Monte Carlo, this is an interesting projection of bitcoin price using Monte Carlo (but not Markov Chain)
https://medium.com/@xoelop/weve-simulated-the-bitcoin-price-for-the-whole-2018-you-won-t-believe-the-result-4a602679dac2

[wrblz]

Been reading up on XMR and want to get into privacy for 2018. Like XMR because it's already established and should have stable/steady growth, which will be good for where it'll fit in my portfolio.

Are there any potential developments for big spikes coming in 2018? My understanding is that Monero is basically deployed as a working product and upcoming developments would be mostly just enhancements. Any chance at partnerships or any newsworthy moments? Or is XMR just a slow and steady riser?

[krm4700]

I need to have a solid infrastructure to be able to have enough information to correct this information. I am waiting for June

[Anon136]

Been reading up on XMR and want to get into privacy for 2018. Like XMR because it's already established and should have stable/steady growth, which will be good for where it'll fit in my portfolio.

Are there any potential developments for big spikes coming in 2018? My understanding is that Monero is basically deployed as a working product and upcoming developments would be mostly just enhancements. Any chance at partnerships or any newsworthy moments? Or is XMR just a slow and steady riser?

Bullet proofs come in 2018. Bullet proofs will see a space savings/fee reduction of ~80% on standard 2 output transactions but much higher space savings on transactions with more than 2 outputs. After that the next big development will probably be kovri. I don't know if we can expect to see kovri on main net in 2018 though. The focus of the monero project is on steady improvement of the core product rather than flashy new "me too" features.

[wrblz]

Been reading up on XMR and want to get into privacy for 2018. Like XMR because it's already established and should have stable/steady growth, which will be good for where it'll fit in my portfolio.

Are there any potential developments for big spikes coming in 2018? My understanding is that Monero is basically deployed as a working product and upcoming developments would be mostly just enhancements. Any chance at partnerships or any newsworthy moments? Or is XMR just a slow and steady riser?

Bullet proofs come in 2018. Bullet proofs will see a space savings/fee reduction of ~80% on standard 2 output transactions but much higher space savings on transactions with more than 2 outputs. After that the next big development will probably be kovri. I don't know if we can expect to see kovri on main net in 2018 though. The focus of the monero project is on steady improvement of the core product rather than flashy new "me too" features.

Great, thanks. Basically confirmed what I already suspected.

I've got some coins that I expect to pump more than XMR in the short term but am excited to move the profits to Monero in the near future.

[Hueristic]

Been reading up on XMR and want to get into privacy for 2018. Like XMR because it's already established and should have stable/steady growth, which will be good for where it'll fit in my portfolio.

Are there any potential developments for big spikes coming in 2018? My understanding is that Monero is basically deployed as a working product and upcoming developments would be mostly just enhancements. Any chance at partnerships or any newsworthy moments? Or is XMR just a slow and steady riser?

Remeber witrh a Privacy coin of this caliber all code must be 100% vetted, one fuckup and the whole house of cards can come crashing down. MONERO cannot just pull a ETH and hardfork the chain back because someone lost their coins. Immutable means something HERE!

...
https://medium.com/@xoelop/weve-simulated-the-bitcoin-price-for-the-whole-2018-you-won-t-believe-the-result-4a602679dac2

His premise that

So if you think sound and uncensorable money is important to enough people

is incorrect, but thanks for the link it was interesting.

Our friend MetropolisHastings12 has a sense of humor.  I like the Fermat sig. 
And the nym tells you how he came up with the text
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolis%E2%80%93Hastings_algorithm
A few years ago I played around with Markov Chain generation of text from samples, which creates gobbledygook that replicates the style of the original without any of the semantic content.  There are tools available, if you just google it.
So our newfound friend MetropolisHastings12 is a sock puppet that a regular from this forum, no doubt, is wearing on his antic little digits (pun intended).
I must say that to create such a tidy product from the small sample of aminorex's posts is an admirable accomplishment.  I had to use megs of text sample to get a decent result with the primitive Markov Chain tools I used.  Like this

Thanks for pointing this out!

[ozkraut]

Our friend MetropolisHastings12 has a sense of humor.  I like the Fermat sig. 
And the nym tells you how he came up with the text
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolis%E2%80%93Hastings_algorithm
A few years ago I played around with Markov Chain generation of text from samples, which creates gobbledygook that replicates the style of the original without any of the semantic content.  There are tools available, if you just google it.
So our newfound friend MetropolisHastings12 is a sock puppet that a regular from this forum, no doubt, is wearing on his antic little digits (pun intended).
I must say that to create such a tidy product from the small sample of aminorex's posts is an admirable accomplishment.  I had to use megs of text sample to get a decent result with the primitive Markov Chain tools I used.  Like this

Thanks for pointing this out!
[/quote]

Yes thanks seconded - led me right down some rabbit holes

[Tavarez]

A coin that is untraceable will never be adopted by governments or major corporations. Without some sort of trace to the original buyer, banks will never have anything to do with companies who accept anonymous transactions. That is just common sense. I believe Monero is here to stay but its only going to be prioritized by people who don't want to be traced.

[rdp]

A coin that is untraceable will never be adopted by governments or major corporations. Without some sort of trace to the original buyer, banks will never have anything to do with companies who accept anonymous transactions. That is just common sense. I believe Monero is here to stay but its only going to be prioritized by people who don't want to be traced.

Monero has something called "view key", so when you WANT to make it public you CAN.

[denetci]

what do you think about monero hardware wallet?
Michael Schloh von Bennewitz and a team work on it.
MILESTONE 2 ALREADY COMPLETED

Configuration and documentation
Several tooling tasks such as Create tool configurations story 3, Test accuracy of reflow sensors [task 20], and (https://taiga.getmonero.org/project/michael-rfc-hwallet-1-implementation/task/20/), and Panelise designs task 147 concluded successfully and is closed.

Priority documentation tasks concluded successfully as well, including a number of wiki pages and Maintain documentation story 4

Our conduct of Opendime research ended prematurely, after it became clear that their architecture (Cortex M0+) and closed source design doesn't relate or is not technically possible to integrate. There were online discussions however, relating to the communities' interest in a off chain anonymous disposable bond device. The main discussion thread was abandoned.

https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/88149/dedicated-monero-hardware-wallet

[johnalan]

Any predictions for 2018 guys?


Mine for 2017 were > Q1:$20 Q2:$30 Q3:$50 Q4:$70+


Q1 to Q4?

Cheers,
John

Q1: $250
Q2: $350
Q3: $500
Q4: $800

Interesting

I should add, mine:

Q1: $200
Q2: $200
Q3: $800
Q4: $500

I feel that we will see some stagnation, then in Q2 I think alot of shit crypto will drop (Dash, insert other shitcoin), then I think we will see XMR independently rise, realising its true value in Q3.

Looks like I'm on target with my predictions so far, unfortunately!
However, I'd like to reforecast:
Q1: $200
Q2: $400
Q3: $1200
Q4: $800

[dvabit]

If anyone want to learn about Monero and it's working style, visit this article - http://www.hashtaginvesting.com/blog/what-is-monero-vs-bitcoin

[tokeweed]

A coin that is untraceable will never be adopted by governments or major corporations. Without some sort of trace to the original buyer, banks will never have anything to do with companies who accept anonymous transactions. That is just common sense. I believe Monero is here to stay but its only going to be prioritized by people who don't want to be traced.

Who said Monero's goal is be adopted by governments and major corporations?  F*ck that.  Monero is the people's coin.  It protects our privacy since it's really a basic human right.  Do you think we're here to make money like you?  Gtfo of here.

Monero is setting the bar up on how crypto should be.

[Globb0]

and lol

The gubbermint send money all over the place secretly.

Now crate of dollar notes, future mouse click. A B testing use case, which do you prefer? meet me in the desert

[wuclx]

XMR is definitely on discount at the moment. Soon we won't see $200 ever again. You might want to split a bit into ZCash as well.

[rinus]

XMR is definitely on discount at the moment. Soon we won't see $200 ever again. You might want to split a bit into ZCash as well.

I really hope u are right, but it does not look good. Not in the short term at least. Bitcoin did not find its floor yet... wonder how deep it will go

[Hueristic]

what do you think about monero hardware wallet?
Michael Schloh von Bennewitz and a team work on it.
MILESTONE 2 ALREADY COMPLETED

Configuration and documentation
Several tooling tasks such as Create tool configurations story 3, Test accuracy of reflow sensors [task 20], and (https://taiga.getmonero.org/project/michael-rfc-hwallet-1-implementation/task/20/), and Panelise designs task 147 concluded successfully and is closed.

Priority documentation tasks concluded successfully as well, including a number of wiki pages and Maintain documentation story 4

Our conduct of Opendime research ended prematurely, after it became clear that their architecture (Cortex M0+) and closed source design doesn't relate or is not technically possible to integrate. There were online discussions however, relating to the communities' interest in a off chain anonymous disposable bond device. The main discussion thread was abandoned.

https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/88149/dedicated-monero-hardware-wallet

Pictures would be nice, what percentage solder are you using and reflow oven? How will you create the pcb, muti-layer? I used to do photo etch in the old days for single/double sided. It would be nice if you started a thread here and posted images as you go. I found I was unable to comment on this link to ask these questions.


https://taiga.getmonero.org/project/michael-rfc-hwallet-1-implementation/task/20?kanban-status=43

BTW the tiaga software is configured incorrectly when you choose to register after trying to comment the popup redirects you to the main tiaga site instead of the getmonero instance.

[elrippos friend]

Any predictions for 2018 guys?


Mine for 2017 were > Q1:$20 Q2:$30 Q3:$50 Q4:$70+


Q1 to Q4?

Cheers,
John

Q1: $250
Q2: $350
Q3: $500
Q4: $800

Interesting

I should add, mine:

Q1: $200
Q2: $200
Q3: $800
Q4: $500

I feel that we will see some stagnation, then in Q2 I think alot of shit crypto will drop (Dash, insert other shitcoin), then I think we will see XMR independently rise, realising its true value in Q3.

Looks like I'm on target with my predictions so far, unfortunately!
However, I'd like to reforecast:
Q1: $200
Q2: $400
Q3: $1200
Q4: $800

Let´s have a cup of tea and see how it goes