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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3204931 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 2 users deleted.)
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February 13, 2018, 12:47:33 AM
 #36721

Maybe crypto is like PMs where gold is still king after thousands of years.

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

It remains to be seen whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down.  I would not invest in bitcoin now, simply because it is not useful now, and I have no confidence in the salvage crew.

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Bitcoin should and I hope, will survive.  Its robustness (anti-fragility) is legend and so it is and will be for some time the standard bearer for all crypto.  

A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me. Lack of utility, if it persists, will surely bleed its value inexorably down. I hope I am proven wrong because the wake of a sinking titan can capsize numerous lesser vessels. Even a sound one will be tossed brutally in those swells.


Let's remind our lurkers exactly how much credibility you have in the Immanent Death Of Bitcoin Prediction Department by quoting (in the context of my own) some earlier prognostications of yours.



"Personally, I think s2x will be the longest chain, because BTC hash rate will be inadequate to keep up."

BTC hash rate responds to economics.  Within the incentive structure designed by Satoshi, as tx fees pile up and compete "inadequate" hash rate is a self-correcting problem.


Users will use the chain with lower fees, where you can actually get a confirm before your beard turns white.  Core will suffer a massive difficulty bomb, and if 80% of the hash is on s2x, it will take 4x longer to get a confirm.  Also, there will be more xns in an s2x block, so miners are incentivized by the total fees, even when fees are only ~50% of the fees on core.

Bitcoin is working better than ever, according to the numbers published at https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#all.

BTC fees are at or near zero; getting a confirmation is fast and easy (just as Core and I predicted would happen once segwit and tx batching gained sufficient adoption).

None of your panicky, breathless, baseless FUD about "muh massive difficulty bomb" and whatnot came to pass.  Nobody except Jihan and Roger's r/btc shills even care about Bcash and the other attack forks these days.  Such virtue signaling anti-Core outgroup castigation has proven irrelevant, just like your melodramatic maudlin pouting and weeping about "whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down."  Do you really think Honey Badger gives a damn about that kind of hand-wringing fretfulness?  Grin

If s2x had actually activated, its network would have instantly imploded due to a critical bug left unmitigated due to poor testing.  But there never was even a single s2x block, so your "longest chain" prediction managed to fail on an impressively multi-ordinal (theoretical+empirical) basis of compounded self-propagating errors.  Cheesy

You are correct on one point though...."A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me."

That's precisely why you are hereby demoted from 'Sage of the Monero Speculation Thread' all the way down to 'Bitter Bigblocker BTFO By Blockstream.' Embarrassed

Amino you should apologize for attacking BTC to promote Monero. Monero must stand on its own merits. I say this as one of its biggest bulls.

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February 13, 2018, 12:51:04 AM
Merited by kurious (1)
 #36722

As much as I disagree with the big blocker philosophy... Aminorex has NOTHING to apologize for to anyone.  That is some of the most ridiculous shit posted here.  On the contrary, I am ashamed this thread has turned all Aspergers on him for stating his opinion.

Calm the hell down, IMHO.
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February 13, 2018, 01:14:46 AM
 #36723

As much as I disagree with the big blocker philosophy... Aminorex has NOTHING to apologize for to anyone.  That is some of the most ridiculous shit posted here.  On the contrary, I am ashamed this thread has turned all Aspergers on him for stating his opinion.

Calm the hell down, IMHO.

I am the calm one here.  You can tell because I'm referring to objective numbers provided by a 3rd party and because I'm not spewing Chicken Little gloom-and-doom FUD about how Bitcoin is going to die (and/or is already dead). Smiley

Aminorex's opinions predictions about s2x's fate and The Evil Blockstream Core Conspiracy were/are flat-out wrong.  He needs to be called out for and own those mistakes.  You don't need to leap into the fray in a chivalrous attempt to white knight for him.  He's a big boy and fully capable of engaging me without you trying to set the acceptable parameters of our discourse.


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
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February 13, 2018, 01:22:52 AM
 #36724

If everyone posted an apology for every speculation not realized, this speculation thread would be twice as long.

I will apologize for this post when I see close to 100% speculation accuracy here.
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February 13, 2018, 01:23:38 AM
 #36725

Dear Icetroller,
this is Monero Speculation Thread not BTC speculation thread, please stop being OT in this Thread.    

thank you

As much as I disagree with the big blocker philosophy... Aminorex has NOTHING to apologize for to anyone.  That is some of the most ridiculous shit posted here.  On the contrary, I am ashamed this thread has turned all Aspergers on him for stating his opinion.

Calm the hell down, IMHO.

I am the calm one here.  You can tell because I'm referring to objective numbers provided by a 3rd party and because I'm not spewing Chicken Little gloom-and-doom FUD about how Bitcoin is going to die (and/or is already dead). Smiley

Aminorex's opinions predictions about s2x's fate and The Evil Blockstream Core Conspiracy were/are flat-out wrong.  He needs to be called out for and own those mistakes.  You don't need to leap into the fray in a chivalrous attempt to white knight for him.  He's a big boy and fully capable of engaging me without you trying to set the acceptable parameters of our discourse.


"...I suspect we need a better incentive for users to run nodes instead of relying solely on altruism...",  satoshi@vistomail.com
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February 13, 2018, 01:36:27 AM
Merited by BlindMayorBitcorn (1)
 #36726

If everyone posted an apology for every speculation not realized, this speculation thread would be twice as long.

I will apologize for this post when I see close to 100% speculation accuracy here.


You're right that apologizing for "every" incorrect bit of speculation is not warranted, and that is indeed a quite a humorous suggestion. Wink

But you are dishonestly retreating into generalizations as a way to avoid the particular very-high profile and thus especially egregious 'Bitcoin is dead/dying' FUD being spread by Aminorex.

I'm not asking for an apology as some sort of groveling for forgiveness within a moralistic overlay; I simply have high expectations for our most respected posters, which entails they own up to their most massive counterfactual mistakes and perhaps explain to their flocks how/why they managed to get it so wrong.


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
P2P Exchange Network
Buy XMR with fiat
Is Dash a scam?
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February 13, 2018, 01:44:31 AM
Merited by Anon136 (1)
 #36727

As much as I disagree with the big blocker philosophy... Aminorex has NOTHING to apologize for to anyone.  That is some of the most ridiculous shit posted here.  On the contrary, I am ashamed this thread has turned all Aspergers on him for stating his opinion.

Calm the hell down, IMHO.

I am the calm one here.  You can tell because I'm referring to objective numbers provided by a 3rd party and because I'm not spewing Chicken Little gloom-and-doom FUD about how Bitcoin is going to die (and/or is already dead). Smiley

Aminorex's opinions predictions about s2x's fate and The Evil Blockstream Core Conspiracy were/are flat-out wrong.  He needs to be called out for and own those mistakes.  You don't need to leap into the fray in a chivalrous attempt to white knight for him.  He's a big boy and fully capable of engaging me without you trying to set the acceptable parameters of our discourse.


You did not ask him to apologize, which was my main beef. 

The two of you want to go mano a mano on Big blocks/blockstream/core/Monero/etc then I will go pop some corn...  Or get some nice chicharones since I am low carb.  I am fairly firmly on the core side of this fence.   I would enjoy good arguments made on each side.  And how they relate to Monero's value makes it all the better.
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February 13, 2018, 06:00:10 AM
 #36728

The one thing that doesn't add up to me is that darkcoin is significantly higher than Monero still.  Comparing Monero to bit coin days.  There wasn't a precursor to bitcoin that tried to do the same thing in an inferior way that had a higher market cap.
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February 13, 2018, 06:09:47 AM
 #36729

The one thing that doesn't add up to me is that darkcoin is significantly higher than Monero still.  Comparing Monero to bit coin days.  There wasn't a precursor to bitcoin that tried to do the same thing in an inferior way that had a higher market cap.

When one entity owns (premine) vast amounts of the coin, and there is no trade volume and no transactions, they can set the price wherever they want.  It really is irrelevant.
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February 13, 2018, 10:59:48 AM
 #36730

Maybe crypto is like PMs where gold is still king after thousands of years.

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

It remains to be seen whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down.  I would not invest in bitcoin now, simply because it is not useful now, and I have no confidence in the salvage crew.

Quote
Bitcoin should and I hope, will survive.  Its robustness (anti-fragility) is legend and so it is and will be for some time the standard bearer for all crypto.  

A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me. Lack of utility, if it persists, will surely bleed its value inexorably down. I hope I am proven wrong because the wake of a sinking titan can capsize numerous lesser vessels. Even a sound one will be tossed brutally in those swells.

Quote
Monero has a lead for being perceived as honest and unflashy.  And it has a use-case.   As long as the use case is required it will be hard for other coins to take over its place.  Optional privacy may be added to other coins, but Monero's privacy by default is the only way, so it has a good chance of being one of the 'few' to make it.

Not only does it have a use case, but it is actually fit for purpose.  At least one of ten ICOs has a plausible, or even a legitimate and viable use case and hence a niche. But far fewer are actually fit for that use, and all have much narrower niches than monero, save perhaps transparent liquidity and possibly even contracts.  What is the likely successor to BTC for liquidity?  Well, LTC transfers per unit of market cap are vastly higher than BitcoinCash, so it is looking remarkably and surprisingly useful, in addition to it's tenure.

I don't think ETH is a robust contracts platform.  All the larceny is sufficient to discredit ETH.  Usability is still at the squat toilet level.  But...It could be a long while before a 10x better platform emerges - and that is usually what it takes to displace an incumbent, a 10x ROI.

Very interesting thoughts, as always.

I expect we should see Monero break 1K by July.
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February 13, 2018, 01:35:36 PM
 #36731

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

I'm curious.  It was mentioned that there will come a time that Monero won't be doing the bi annual hard forks in the future as the coin becomes big enough that any hard fork could get risky.  Does that mean ASIC's could come anyway?

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February 13, 2018, 02:21:35 PM
 #36732

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

I'm curious.  It was mentioned that there will come a time that Monero won't be doing the bi annual hard forks in the future as the coin becomes big enough that any hard fork could get risky.  Does that mean ASIC's could come anyway?

I guess nobody really knows how this will play out in the long term. Maybe tweaking the POW algo is not such a big deal for a hard fork. But, more likely, this notice serves more as a deterrent and a threat rather than a promise. If ASIC manufacturers can be persuaded that Monero might change its POW algo at any given time then they may not bother developing one targeted at Monero.

Opinions on MoneroV and the RingCT issue?

Baguette Holder.
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February 13, 2018, 02:40:41 PM
Merited by tokeweed (1)
 #36733

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

I'm curious.  It was mentioned that there will come a time that Monero won't be doing the bi annual hard forks in the future as the coin becomes big enough that any hard fork could get risky.  Does that mean ASIC's could come anyway?

I guess nobody really knows how this will play out in the long term. Maybe tweaking the POW algo is not such a big deal for a hard fork. But, more likely, this notice serves more as a deterrent and a threat rather than a promise. If ASIC manufacturers can be persuaded that Monero might change its POW algo at any given time then they may not bother developing one targeted at Monero.

Yes, I see that post on getmonero as a statement to the ASIC manufacturers. That Monero is and always will be ASIC resistant. With recent fast growth of Monero mining hash power were some speculations that someone build an ASIC miner. This change totally denies that speculation.  And to make a change every 6 months is not needed. I read it someone said it would be enough to do it every 2 years.

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February 13, 2018, 02:47:52 PM
 #36734

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

I'm curious.  It was mentioned that there will come a time that Monero won't be doing the bi annual hard forks in the future as the coin becomes big enough that any hard fork could get risky.  Does that mean ASIC's could come anyway?

I guess nobody really knows how this will play out in the long term. Maybe tweaking the POW algo is not such a big deal for a hard fork. But, more likely, this notice serves more as a deterrent and a threat rather than a promise. If ASIC manufacturers can be persuaded that Monero might change its POW algo at any given time then they may not bother developing one targeted at Monero.

Yes, I see that post on getmonero as a statement to the ASIC manufacturers. That Monero is and always will be ASIC resistant. With recent fast growth of Monero mining hash power were some speculations that someone build an ASIC miner. This change totally denies that speculation.  And to make a change every 6 months is not needed. I read it someone said it would be enough to do it every 2 years.

Good point.

Baguette Holder.
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February 13, 2018, 03:20:12 PM
 #36735


Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.



sooooo... xmr tx fee is cheaper than bitcoin now ?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactionfees-btc-xmr.html#3m

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

EDIT : 
BTC av tx fee  3.4 usd 
xmr av tx fee  6.5 usd  Cry

There you go.  My experience is now obsolete again.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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February 13, 2018, 03:44:35 PM
Merited by iCEBREAKER (1)
 #36736

'Bitcoin is dead/dying' FUD being spread by Aminorex.

...they own up to their most massive counterfactual mistakes and perhaps explain to their flocks how/why they managed to get it so wrong.

Yeah, the fee crisis is over, for now at least, and whether it will repeat I am not now competent to speculate.  I should learn to keep my mouth shut when I am not following current events.  I was quite wrong about s2x, because core was able to act while I was expecting even more stagnation. That error, again, is attributable to neglecting the current available information about the internal dynamics of core. I was also quite wrong about Bitcoin Cash, which has far exceeded my expectations.  I don't even know enough to say why.

Once you know something well, you can make more reasonable projections than before, but if you don't stay up-to-date on the most important factors, in a dynamic environment, that potential degrades rapidly.  My takeaway is to remember to check whether my info is still pertinent rather than repeating old conclusions without updating.  I have done it before, so shame on me for not learning from it then.  It is easy to get cocky and sloppy after a few wins, and a hard reality check is good for the soul, focusses the mind.  So thanks for pointing it out.

Frankly I am not paying enough attention to classic crypto lately for anyone to hang on my words about it.  I try to get the big picture, but my detail attention is currently consumed by lawyers and web plumbing for a CEF.  C'est la guerre.




Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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February 13, 2018, 04:26:08 PM
 #36737

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

thanks Smiley


I'd rather be able to use as intended when I bought them in December  Undecided

That would be optimal but ever since butterfly labs I have never even thought of buying before a product is out and working.


'Bitcoin is dead/dying' FUD being spread by Aminorex.

...they own up to their most massive counterfactual mistakes and perhaps explain to their flocks how/why they managed to get it so wrong.

Yeah, the fee crisis is over, for now at least, and whether it will repeat I am not now competent to speculate.  I should learn to keep my mouth shut when I am not following current events.  I was quite wrong about s2x, because core was able to act while I was expecting even more stagnation. That error, again, is attributable to neglecting the current available information about the internal dynamics of core. I was also quite wrong about Bitcoin Cash, which has far exceeded my expectations.  I don't even know enough to say why.

Once you know something well, you can make more reasonable projections than before, but if you don't stay up-to-date on the most important factors, in a dynamic environment, that potential degrades rapidly.  My takeaway is to remember to check whether my info is still pertinent rather than repeating old conclusions without updating.  I have done it before, so shame on me for not learning from it then.  It is easy to get cocky and sloppy after a few wins, and a hard reality check is good for the soul, focusses the mind.  So thanks for pointing it out.

Frankly I am not paying enough attention to classic crypto lately for anyone to hang on my words about it.  I try to get the big picture, but my detail attention is currently consumed by lawyers and web plumbing for a CEF.  C'est la guerre.


Well said. Smiley

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February 13, 2018, 04:32:39 PM
 #36738

'Bitcoin is dead/dying' FUD being spread by Aminorex.

...they own up to their most massive counterfactual mistakes and perhaps explain to their flocks how/why they managed to get it so wrong.

Yeah, the fee crisis is over, for now at least, and whether it will repeat I am not now competent to speculate.  I should learn to keep my mouth shut when I am not following current events.  I was quite wrong about s2x, because core was able to act while I was expecting even more stagnation. That error, again, is attributable to neglecting the current available information about the internal dynamics of core. I was also quite wrong about Bitcoin Cash, which has far exceeded my expectations.  I don't even know enough to say why.

Once you know something well, you can make more reasonable projections than before, but if you don't stay up-to-date on the most important factors, in a dynamic environment, that potential degrades rapidly.  My takeaway is to remember to check whether my info is still pertinent rather than repeating old conclusions without updating.  I have done it before, so shame on me for not learning from it then.  It is easy to get cocky and sloppy after a few wins, and a hard reality check is good for the soul, focusses the mind.  So thanks for pointing it out.

Frankly I am not paying enough attention to classic crypto lately for anyone to hang on my words about it.  I try to get the big picture, but my detail attention is currently consumed by lawyers and web plumbing for a CEF.  C'est la guerre.






Surely not going bearish on XMR?
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February 13, 2018, 04:52:17 PM
 #36739

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

Will this protocol change affects botnets mining? And if it affects that, does it means hashing power will dive at least for some time around fork period?

Will there be a chance of a chain split because these "70% unknown" hash power comes from botnets and that they might not just switch the software version promptly, leaving and old "ghost" chain burning power and taking some unaware souls?
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February 13, 2018, 05:29:16 PM
 #36740

Any news when Monero mobile wallet will be released, currently it is very difficult to send XMR payment on the go.

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