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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3196706 times)
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February 12, 2018, 03:05:58 PM
 #36721

Monero in the news again. Seems to be increasingly chosen over Bitcoin for this kind of thing.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-43025788
"Hackers hijack government websites to mine crypto-cash"

Quote
Security researcher Scott Helme said more than 4,000 websites, including many government ones, were affected.

The cryptocurrency involved was Monero - a rival to Bitcoin that is designed to make transactions in it "untraceable" back to the senders and recipients involved.

The plug-in had been tampered with to add a program, Coinhive, which "mines" for Monero by running processor-intensive calculations on visitors' computers.

Once the plug-in was infected, it affected thousands of other websites in addition to the ICO's, which used it.

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February 12, 2018, 04:58:35 PM
 #36722

Criminally undervalued, Can't wait for ledger integration too.
Literally the only technology in the world that can successfully accomplish the function it's claiming

I have a new unwrapped ledger waiting for it, too.

Same. I have a few other altcoins I could throw on there, but I don't plan on holding them long enough to make it worthwhile.

Me too, got some still in plastic  Grin 
It must be really difficult to do, because it's been imminent for months.  On the plus side, if they bail like Trezor did, the price has gone up so I can sell them again easily to bitcoin people.

Nice bonus! this may be the only space where the electronics appreciate in value!

Only when btc stays around a certain level for a while, that's when the alts seem to rally.

Interesting observation. Altcoins do well against bitcoin when bitcoin trades sideways but tend to stick with it on the upside and downside. I need to look at some historical data to see how true this is. Interested if other people think they have observed this.
that's what I've noticed, but I've only been in crypto for half a year.. So interested what others think!

I'm not sure but I think this is common after a correction.


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February 12, 2018, 06:48:37 PM
Merited by tokeweed (1), explorer (1), TheFuzzStone (1)
 #36723

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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February 12, 2018, 09:58:33 PM
 #36724

Criminally undervalued, Can't wait for ledger integration too.
Literally the only technology in the world that can successfully accomplish the function it's claiming

I have a new unwrapped ledger waiting for it, too.

Same. I have a few other altcoins I could throw on there, but I don't plan on holding them long enough to make it worthwhile.

Me too, got some still in plastic  Grin 
It must be really difficult to do, because it's been imminent for months.  On the plus side, if they bail like Trezor did, the price has gone up so I can sell them again easily to bitcoin people.

Nice bonus! this may be the only space where the electronics appreciate in value!




I'd rather be able to use as intended when I bought them in December  Undecided
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February 12, 2018, 10:08:01 PM
 #36725

I today bought Monero for long-term storage. I am very happy about this. It seems to me that this is a great coin that will develop and become more popular.

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February 12, 2018, 10:52:26 PM
 #36726

Due to the privacy feature of Monero, it can be the reason why many people prefer it. I think the prices have gone down to the appropriate levels for purchase. However, investment advice is not on the way.

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February 13, 2018, 12:01:36 AM
 #36727

Maybe crypto is like PMs where gold is still king after thousands of years.

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

It remains to be seen whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down.  I would not invest in bitcoin now, simply because it is not useful now, and I have no confidence in the salvage crew.

Quote
Bitcoin should and I hope, will survive.  Its robustness (anti-fragility) is legend and so it is and will be for some time the standard bearer for all crypto.  

A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me. Lack of utility, if it persists, will surely bleed its value inexorably down. I hope I am proven wrong because the wake of a sinking titan can capsize numerous lesser vessels. Even a sound one will be tossed brutally in those swells.

Quote
Monero has a lead for being perceived as honest and unflashy.  And it has a use-case.   As long as the use case is required it will be hard for other coins to take over its place.  Optional privacy may be added to other coins, but Monero's privacy by default is the only way, so it has a good chance of being one of the 'few' to make it.

Not only does it have a use case, but it is actually fit for purpose.  At least one of ten ICOs has a plausible, or even a legitimate and viable use case and hence a niche. But far fewer are actually fit for that use, and all have much narrower niches than monero, save perhaps transparent liquidity and possibly even contracts.  What is the likely successor to BTC for liquidity?  Well, LTC transfers per unit of market cap are vastly higher than BitcoinCash, so it is looking remarkably and surprisingly useful, in addition to it's tenure.

I don't think ETH is a robust contracts platform.  All the larceny is sufficient to discredit ETH.  Usability is still at the squat toilet level.  But...It could be a long while before a 10x better platform emerges - and that is usually what it takes to displace an incumbent, a 10x ROI.

Shouldn't LN make BTC liquid?
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February 13, 2018, 12:36:28 AM
 #36728

Maybe crypto is like PMs where gold is still king after thousands of years.

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

It remains to be seen whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down.  I would not invest in bitcoin now, simply because it is not useful now, and I have no confidence in the salvage crew.

Quote
Bitcoin should and I hope, will survive.  Its robustness (anti-fragility) is legend and so it is and will be for some time the standard bearer for all crypto.  

A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me. Lack of utility, if it persists, will surely bleed its value inexorably down. I hope I am proven wrong because the wake of a sinking titan can capsize numerous lesser vessels. Even a sound one will be tossed brutally in those swells.


Let's remind our lurkers exactly how much credibility you have in the Immanent Death Of Bitcoin Prediction Department by quoting (in the context of my own) some earlier prognostications of yours.



"Personally, I think s2x will be the longest chain, because BTC hash rate will be inadequate to keep up."

BTC hash rate responds to economics.  Within the incentive structure designed by Satoshi, as tx fees pile up and compete "inadequate" hash rate is a self-correcting problem.


Users will use the chain with lower fees, where you can actually get a confirm before your beard turns white.  Core will suffer a massive difficulty bomb, and if 80% of the hash is on s2x, it will take 4x longer to get a confirm.  Also, there will be more xns in an s2x block, so miners are incentivized by the total fees, even when fees are only ~50% of the fees on core.

Bitcoin is working better than ever, according to the numbers published at https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#all.

BTC fees are at or near zero; getting a confirmation is fast and easy (just as Core and I predicted would happen once segwit and tx batching gained sufficient adoption).

None of your panicky, breathless, baseless FUD about "muh massive difficulty bomb" and whatnot came to pass.  Nobody except Jihan and Roger's r/btc shills even care about Bcash and the other attack forks these days.  Such virtue signaling anti-Core outgroup castigation has proven irrelevant, just like your melodramatic maudlin pouting and weeping about "whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down."  Do you really think Honey Badger gives a damn about that kind of hand-wringing fretfulness?  Grin

If s2x had actually activated, its network would have instantly imploded due to a critical bug left unmitigated due to poor testing.  But there never was even a single s2x block, so your "longest chain" prediction managed to fail on an impressively multi-ordinal (theoretical+empirical) basis of compounded self-propagating errors.  Cheesy

You are correct on one point though...."A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me."

That's precisely why you are hereby demoted from 'Sage of the Monero Speculation Thread' all the way down to 'Bitter Bigblocker BTFO By Blockstream.' Embarrassed


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"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
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February 13, 2018, 12:47:33 AM
 #36729

Maybe crypto is like PMs where gold is still king after thousands of years.

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

It remains to be seen whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down.  I would not invest in bitcoin now, simply because it is not useful now, and I have no confidence in the salvage crew.

Quote
Bitcoin should and I hope, will survive.  Its robustness (anti-fragility) is legend and so it is and will be for some time the standard bearer for all crypto.  

A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me. Lack of utility, if it persists, will surely bleed its value inexorably down. I hope I am proven wrong because the wake of a sinking titan can capsize numerous lesser vessels. Even a sound one will be tossed brutally in those swells.


Let's remind our lurkers exactly how much credibility you have in the Immanent Death Of Bitcoin Prediction Department by quoting (in the context of my own) some earlier prognostications of yours.



"Personally, I think s2x will be the longest chain, because BTC hash rate will be inadequate to keep up."

BTC hash rate responds to economics.  Within the incentive structure designed by Satoshi, as tx fees pile up and compete "inadequate" hash rate is a self-correcting problem.


Users will use the chain with lower fees, where you can actually get a confirm before your beard turns white.  Core will suffer a massive difficulty bomb, and if 80% of the hash is on s2x, it will take 4x longer to get a confirm.  Also, there will be more xns in an s2x block, so miners are incentivized by the total fees, even when fees are only ~50% of the fees on core.

Bitcoin is working better than ever, according to the numbers published at https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#all.

BTC fees are at or near zero; getting a confirmation is fast and easy (just as Core and I predicted would happen once segwit and tx batching gained sufficient adoption).

None of your panicky, breathless, baseless FUD about "muh massive difficulty bomb" and whatnot came to pass.  Nobody except Jihan and Roger's r/btc shills even care about Bcash and the other attack forks these days.  Such virtue signaling anti-Core outgroup castigation has proven irrelevant, just like your melodramatic maudlin pouting and weeping about "whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down."  Do you really think Honey Badger gives a damn about that kind of hand-wringing fretfulness?  Grin

If s2x had actually activated, its network would have instantly imploded due to a critical bug left unmitigated due to poor testing.  But there never was even a single s2x block, so your "longest chain" prediction managed to fail on an impressively multi-ordinal (theoretical+empirical) basis of compounded self-propagating errors.  Cheesy

You are correct on one point though...."A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me."

That's precisely why you are hereby demoted from 'Sage of the Monero Speculation Thread' all the way down to 'Bitter Bigblocker BTFO By Blockstream.' Embarrassed

Amino you should apologize for attacking BTC to promote Monero. Monero must stand on its own merits. I say this as one of its biggest bulls.

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February 13, 2018, 12:51:04 AM
Merited by kurious (1)
 #36730

As much as I disagree with the big blocker philosophy... Aminorex has NOTHING to apologize for to anyone.  That is some of the most ridiculous shit posted here.  On the contrary, I am ashamed this thread has turned all Aspergers on him for stating his opinion.

Calm the hell down, IMHO.
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February 13, 2018, 01:14:46 AM
 #36731

As much as I disagree with the big blocker philosophy... Aminorex has NOTHING to apologize for to anyone.  That is some of the most ridiculous shit posted here.  On the contrary, I am ashamed this thread has turned all Aspergers on him for stating his opinion.

Calm the hell down, IMHO.

I am the calm one here.  You can tell because I'm referring to objective numbers provided by a 3rd party and because I'm not spewing Chicken Little gloom-and-doom FUD about how Bitcoin is going to die (and/or is already dead). Smiley

Aminorex's opinions predictions about s2x's fate and The Evil Blockstream Core Conspiracy were/are flat-out wrong.  He needs to be called out for and own those mistakes.  You don't need to leap into the fray in a chivalrous attempt to white knight for him.  He's a big boy and fully capable of engaging me without you trying to set the acceptable parameters of our discourse.


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
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February 13, 2018, 01:22:52 AM
 #36732

If everyone posted an apology for every speculation not realized, this speculation thread would be twice as long.

I will apologize for this post when I see close to 100% speculation accuracy here.
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February 13, 2018, 01:23:38 AM
 #36733

Dear Icetroller,
this is Monero Speculation Thread not BTC speculation thread, please stop being OT in this Thread.    

thank you

As much as I disagree with the big blocker philosophy... Aminorex has NOTHING to apologize for to anyone.  That is some of the most ridiculous shit posted here.  On the contrary, I am ashamed this thread has turned all Aspergers on him for stating his opinion.

Calm the hell down, IMHO.

I am the calm one here.  You can tell because I'm referring to objective numbers provided by a 3rd party and because I'm not spewing Chicken Little gloom-and-doom FUD about how Bitcoin is going to die (and/or is already dead). Smiley

Aminorex's opinions predictions about s2x's fate and The Evil Blockstream Core Conspiracy were/are flat-out wrong.  He needs to be called out for and own those mistakes.  You don't need to leap into the fray in a chivalrous attempt to white knight for him.  He's a big boy and fully capable of engaging me without you trying to set the acceptable parameters of our discourse.


"...I suspect we need a better incentive for users to run nodes instead of relying solely on altruism...",  satoshi@vistomail.com
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February 13, 2018, 01:36:27 AM
Merited by BlindMayorBitcorn (1)
 #36734

If everyone posted an apology for every speculation not realized, this speculation thread would be twice as long.

I will apologize for this post when I see close to 100% speculation accuracy here.


You're right that apologizing for "every" incorrect bit of speculation is not warranted, and that is indeed a quite a humorous suggestion. Wink

But you are dishonestly retreating into generalizations as a way to avoid the particular very-high profile and thus especially egregious 'Bitcoin is dead/dying' FUD being spread by Aminorex.

I'm not asking for an apology as some sort of groveling for forgiveness within a moralistic overlay; I simply have high expectations for our most respected posters, which entails they own up to their most massive counterfactual mistakes and perhaps explain to their flocks how/why they managed to get it so wrong.


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
P2P Exchange Network
Buy XMR with fiat
Is Dash a scam?
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February 13, 2018, 01:44:31 AM
Merited by Anon136 (1)
 #36735

As much as I disagree with the big blocker philosophy... Aminorex has NOTHING to apologize for to anyone.  That is some of the most ridiculous shit posted here.  On the contrary, I am ashamed this thread has turned all Aspergers on him for stating his opinion.

Calm the hell down, IMHO.

I am the calm one here.  You can tell because I'm referring to objective numbers provided by a 3rd party and because I'm not spewing Chicken Little gloom-and-doom FUD about how Bitcoin is going to die (and/or is already dead). Smiley

Aminorex's opinions predictions about s2x's fate and The Evil Blockstream Core Conspiracy were/are flat-out wrong.  He needs to be called out for and own those mistakes.  You don't need to leap into the fray in a chivalrous attempt to white knight for him.  He's a big boy and fully capable of engaging me without you trying to set the acceptable parameters of our discourse.


You did not ask him to apologize, which was my main beef. 

The two of you want to go mano a mano on Big blocks/blockstream/core/Monero/etc then I will go pop some corn...  Or get some nice chicharones since I am low carb.  I am fairly firmly on the core side of this fence.   I would enjoy good arguments made on each side.  And how they relate to Monero's value makes it all the better.
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February 13, 2018, 06:00:10 AM
 #36736

The one thing that doesn't add up to me is that darkcoin is significantly higher than Monero still.  Comparing Monero to bit coin days.  There wasn't a precursor to bitcoin that tried to do the same thing in an inferior way that had a higher market cap.
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February 13, 2018, 06:09:47 AM
 #36737

The one thing that doesn't add up to me is that darkcoin is significantly higher than Monero still.  Comparing Monero to bit coin days.  There wasn't a precursor to bitcoin that tried to do the same thing in an inferior way that had a higher market cap.

When one entity owns (premine) vast amounts of the coin, and there is no trade volume and no transactions, they can set the price wherever they want.  It really is irrelevant.
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February 13, 2018, 10:59:48 AM
 #36738

Maybe crypto is like PMs where gold is still king after thousands of years.

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

It remains to be seen whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down.  I would not invest in bitcoin now, simply because it is not useful now, and I have no confidence in the salvage crew.

Quote
Bitcoin should and I hope, will survive.  Its robustness (anti-fragility) is legend and so it is and will be for some time the standard bearer for all crypto.  

A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me. Lack of utility, if it persists, will surely bleed its value inexorably down. I hope I am proven wrong because the wake of a sinking titan can capsize numerous lesser vessels. Even a sound one will be tossed brutally in those swells.

Quote
Monero has a lead for being perceived as honest and unflashy.  And it has a use-case.   As long as the use case is required it will be hard for other coins to take over its place.  Optional privacy may be added to other coins, but Monero's privacy by default is the only way, so it has a good chance of being one of the 'few' to make it.

Not only does it have a use case, but it is actually fit for purpose.  At least one of ten ICOs has a plausible, or even a legitimate and viable use case and hence a niche. But far fewer are actually fit for that use, and all have much narrower niches than monero, save perhaps transparent liquidity and possibly even contracts.  What is the likely successor to BTC for liquidity?  Well, LTC transfers per unit of market cap are vastly higher than BitcoinCash, so it is looking remarkably and surprisingly useful, in addition to it's tenure.

I don't think ETH is a robust contracts platform.  All the larceny is sufficient to discredit ETH.  Usability is still at the squat toilet level.  But...It could be a long while before a 10x better platform emerges - and that is usually what it takes to displace an incumbent, a 10x ROI.

Very interesting thoughts, as always.

I expect we should see Monero break 1K by July.
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February 13, 2018, 01:35:36 PM
 #36739

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

I'm curious.  It was mentioned that there will come a time that Monero won't be doing the bi annual hard forks in the future as the coin becomes big enough that any hard fork could get risky.  Does that mean ASIC's could come anyway?

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February 13, 2018, 02:21:35 PM
 #36740

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

I'm curious.  It was mentioned that there will come a time that Monero won't be doing the bi annual hard forks in the future as the coin becomes big enough that any hard fork could get risky.  Does that mean ASIC's could come anyway?

I guess nobody really knows how this will play out in the long term. Maybe tweaking the POW algo is not such a big deal for a hard fork. But, more likely, this notice serves more as a deterrent and a threat rather than a promise. If ASIC manufacturers can be persuaded that Monero might change its POW algo at any given time then they may not bother developing one targeted at Monero.

Opinions on MoneroV and the RingCT issue?

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