where do you expect this bull run to top out at?
Not sure who you are asking, but I will answer for fun.
It is difficult to predict trends in any crypto other than BTC since all alts are ultimately dependent on BTC. So there is more than one way to value XMR. You can value it in a fiat pair, or against BTC. Against other alts is mostly silly, although I have been enjoying iCEYs Monero/Trash ratio recently.
Currently there are several technical and fundamental factors that are influencing the price of XMR.
- Bitcoin possibly reversing it's bearish trend
- ALTS generally NOT participating in the BTC rally
- The MoneroV fork/attack.
Bitcoin turning bullish is good for XMRUSD even if XMRBTC is dropping. But I have been seeing for quite some time that XMR does not act in concert with the greater field of altcoins as much as most others. Now we are seeing a hyper version of that with BTC and XMR rallying while all other (significant) alts are red. Hooray for us. I believe we may be seeing the first pre-tremors of the absolutely needed alt-coin (and HIDEOUS ico) shakeout. This may not be the big one, but it is at least the sort of thing I think we should expect to see. I hope to see BCASH cut in at least half over the next several months, along with all other copypasta and scamcoins. Projects that provide actual value, on the other hand we can expect to see drop less, hold or even rise.
In my opinion Monero is one of the top 2 or three projects in the usefulness/utility category. Few other projects come close.
Finally there is the MoneroV attack. I am glad we are having it. It has exposed an attack vector in Monero. Our history is speckled with attacks and responses from our devs to mitigate these vectors. In some cases the devs and researches have nailed shut an attack vector before it could be taken advantage of.
This is how we grow. This is how antifragility works. But there are some obvious truths we must unerstand about the MoneroV fork.
First of all there is absolutely NO way it will be a non-event. Game theoretically there is zero chance all people will choose NOT to "cash in". This includes exchanges. It is inevitable, if the project actually launches, that some exchanges will support it, and many many will sell these coins.
I guarantee you even some of the most prominent members of our community now saying "Just don't participate in the fork and all will be well" are going to participate by selling their forkcoins. Human nature. Nash equilibrium and all that.
But in the end this will also provide some fuel for XMR to rise when it has needed to for quite some time.
My GUESS?
I think we see upwards of .04-.05 over the next couple weeks with us falling back to current levels as a new support floor later this month. That said, XMR has a history of doing these multi part 3x-5x rises over fairly short periods of time. I would not write that off either. But overall, in spite of the coming shenanigans, I am fairly bullish.
But I have no effing idea.
