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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3185920 times)
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nazzer
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April 14, 2018, 04:06:19 AM
 #37821

MoneroV - A day late and a dollar short.

Monero V was 2 versions ago ... it's Monero VII now  Grin

Also - 300 by the end of the month?

I'll buy you a pint of beer if it's 300 by the end of the month.

I'll buy a round at the pub  Grin

Vega 56 | Vega 64 | RX580 | GTX1070 | 1050Ti | S9 | L3+
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April 14, 2018, 07:08:08 AM
 #37822


Is there a list of which specific ledger wallets will support this? I'd hate to get one and find out later it didn't. Smiley


As I understand it the Nano S and the Blue will both support it.  This has been talked about on reddit /r/monero some.  If you want I'll try to hunt up a link.

Thx for the answers guys, thats what I remember as well.

I'm in no need of one yet and If and when I do need one I'll more than likely build the open source one in design now. I just figured others in the thread should know which ones it's compatible with.


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April 14, 2018, 10:21:58 AM
 #37823

I'll more than likely build the open source one in design now.

I will be interested in your opinion of it.


*edit* clarity

Buy the dip and the celery
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April 14, 2018, 05:58:16 PM
 #37824

I do not like Monero, in fact. It was promised that this coin will be completely anonymous, but in fact it is not. Why deceive your own investors?
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April 14, 2018, 06:00:46 PM
 #37825

I do not like Monero, in fact. It was promised that this coin will be completely anonymous, but in fact it is not. Why deceive your own investors?

Come with facts and we start listening, otherwise just ... off. Sorry to be rude, but what u just said without backing it up doesn’t make any sense
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April 14, 2018, 06:43:25 PM
 #37826

I do not like Monero, in fact. It was promised that this coin will be completely anonymous, but in fact it is not. Why deceive your own investors?

Come with facts and we start listening, otherwise just ... off. Sorry to be rude, but what u just said without backing it up doesn’t make any sense


oh, don't be so harsh.

Postings of uniformed trolls are usually a bullish sign.

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April 14, 2018, 10:10:47 PM
 #37827

I do not like Monero, in fact. It was promised that this coin will be completely anonymous, but in fact it is not. Why deceive your own investors?

Come with facts and we start listening, otherwise just ... off. Sorry to be rude, but what u just said without backing it up doesn’t make any sense


oh, don't be so harsh.

Postings of uniformed trolls are usually a bullish sign.

I rather like the idea of trolls in uniforms. I'd start to think quite differently about them.

Baguette Holder.
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April 14, 2018, 11:25:53 PM
 #37828

Deleted off topic/wrong coin

Hey guys, I know this is Monero only but a friend of me went long in WANchain and I don’t know if that’s a good call. I appreciate you guys opinion cause I am daily reading this threat so I would appreciate it

Seeing it's down 15% I'd say no:
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/wanchain/

Though I don't know much about it. Try creating an Altcoin Speculation thread.

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April 14, 2018, 11:31:45 PM
 #37829

I do not like Monero, in fact. It was promised that this coin will be completely anonymous, but in fact it is not. Why deceive your own investors?

Come with facts and we start listening, otherwise just ... off. Sorry to be rude, but what u just said without backing it up doesn’t make any sense


oh, don't be so harsh.

Postings of uniformed trolls are usually a bullish sign.

I rather like the idea of trolls in uniforms. I'd start to think quite differently about them.

Forgive  my sloppy spelling, that should have read "uninformed"; nevertheless, the idea of them wearing something standardised, probably in grey polyester with a clip on tie, is quite appealing.  Perhaps those Russian troll-farms have a dress-code?

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April 14, 2018, 11:49:44 PM
 #37830

I do not like Monero, in fact. It was promised that this coin will be completely anonymous, but in fact it is not. Why deceive your own investors?

Come with facts and we start listening, otherwise just ... off. Sorry to be rude, but what u just said without backing it up doesn’t make any sense


oh, don't be so harsh.

Postings of uniformed trolls are usually a bullish sign.

I rather like the idea of trolls in uniforms. I'd start to think quite differently about them.

Forgive  my sloppy spelling, that should have read "uninformed"; nevertheless, the idea of them wearing something standardised, probably in grey polyester with a clip on tie, is quite appealing.  Perhaps those Russian troll-farms have a dress-code?

Well, of course. I think you're on to something with the polyester. Clip on tie? Natch. A definite Jobsworth, though with a russian accent.

Baguette Holder.
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April 15, 2018, 12:29:55 AM
 #37831

I do not like Monero, in fact. It was promised that this coin will be completely anonymous, but in fact it is not. Why deceive your own investors?

Come with facts and we start listening, otherwise just ... off. Sorry to be rude, but what u just said without backing it up doesn’t make any sense

Monero is still in its infancy - even the devs have stated it won't be feature complete for years.

Having said that, the devs have addressed key issues with privacy and responded to the whole issue brought up here:

https://getmonero.org/2018/03/29/response-to-an-empirical-analysis-of-traceability.html

HTH

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April 15, 2018, 01:27:45 AM
 #37832

I'll more than likely build the open source one in design now.

I will be interested in your opinion of it.


*edit* clarity

Every time I've checked in on it I like what I've seen so I'm really looking forward to it just to build for fun. Smiley

I do not like Monero, in fact. It was promised that this coin will be completely anonymous, but in fact it is not. Why deceive your own investors?

Because we hate them just like I hate and now ignore you. Cheesy


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April 15, 2018, 10:12:36 AM
 #37833

my price estimates on monero have been accurate by now. I think it will continue from now on. it's time to leave zec behind. the first goal is 500 dollars later the first 5 Smiley achievements monero team.

in uninformed people, do not write here unnecessary. there's a system running and it's the best at the moment. developing this will be with our investments and support.


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OATH

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April 15, 2018, 02:59:35 PM
 #37834

Interesting paper on Bitcoin economics. Since Monero follows a nearly-identical PoW structure the paper can be applied to Monero as well.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3142022

The paper attempts to analyze and even in some cases quantify some of the structure incorporated into this famous diagram:

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April 15, 2018, 03:03:13 PM
Last edit: April 15, 2018, 09:18:48 PM by aminorex
 #37835

Ok, I have some thinkingtime now, as I actually filed IRS, CRA, NYS ahead of the deadline for once.  (My happiest tax payment ever thanks to forethought and a god-send of an accountant.) So now it is time to speculate.

Winter is ending.  Barring major persistent geopolitical shock, U.S. stocks should have a blow off top this Summer, but I don't expect BTC new highs, nor XMR, until fall.  My EOY central estimates are now SPX 2700±200 (after a 3000+ ATH), BTC 25000±5000 (no extrema), XMR 900±300 (no extrema) with UST to end closer to 2% than today, after a low near 3%. ± factors are roughly proportionate to estimated volatility, obvly.  In 2019 the crypto/equity ratio should, on balance, increase, out to 2024 before reversing the cycle trend. For Summer I like oil  and coal,  and for EOY I hate industrial metals.

I admit experiencing some schadenfreude when observing that XMR is at 40% of it's highs while ZEC (the nearest functional comparable) is at 30% of it's highs. (Is the market saying XMR is 33% better?) Time will out whether the levels or the volatilities hold the stronger trend, but I expect a middle course as they both recover, disregarding for the moment both fundamentals and catalysing events.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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April 15, 2018, 03:05:01 PM
 #37836

I do not like Monero, in fact. It was promised that this coin will be completely anonymous, but in fact it is not. Why deceive your own investors?

Come with facts and we start listening, otherwise just ... off. Sorry to be rude, but what u just said without backing it up doesn’t make any sense


oh, don't be so harsh.

Postings of uniformed trolls are usually a bullish sign.

I rather like the idea of trolls in uniforms. I'd start to think quite differently about them.

Forgive  my sloppy spelling, that should have read "uninformed"; nevertheless, the idea of them wearing something standardised, probably in grey polyester with a clip on tie, is quite appealing.  Perhaps those Russian troll-farms have a dress-code?

Hahaha


Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041
If one can not confer upon another a right which he does not himself first possess, by what means does the state derive the right to engage in behaviors from which the public is prohibited?
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April 15, 2018, 03:06:31 PM
 #37837

this famous diagram:



My contention has always been that an important albeit secondary feedback, from increased hashing power to increased hoarding, is omitted from this diagram.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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April 15, 2018, 03:08:59 PM
 #37838

this famous diagram:



My contention has always been that an important albeit secondary feedback, from increased hashing power to increased hoarding, is omitted from this diagram.

Who here, when deciding whether or not to hodl, has checked the current hash rate to help aid them in that decision? I'm not saying it doesn't happen. Just that if it does I wasn't aware of it. So that is why I am asking.

Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041
If one can not confer upon another a right which he does not himself first possess, by what means does the state derive the right to engage in behaviors from which the public is prohibited?
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April 15, 2018, 03:11:28 PM
 #37839

this famous diagram:



My contention has always been that an important albeit secondary feedback, from increased hashing power to increased hoarding, is omitted from this diagram.

Probably true although the arc should perhaps emanate from security or legitimacy (both downstream of hash rate) rather than hash rate itself. Hash rate in and if itself isn't valuable, only what it accomplishes.

Also, the paper I linked doesn't attempt to model purely speculative value, although speculation based on a future value of the network is considered. As such the paper follows the structure of the diagram as-is, somewhat (increased hoarding would occur due to increased expected adoption). "Expected" not being mentioned in the diagram is perhaps a flaw.



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April 15, 2018, 07:53:06 PM
 #37840

I can't help but wonder if this might be one of the large ASIC minors selling there warchest.

Very interesting cAPSLOCK. Did you dig a little further up to January for example (when ASICs supposedly started mining XMR)? Also, interesting dates are:

- around February 11th because Monero devs declare war on ASICs: https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

- around March 11th because the first cryptonight ASIC becomes public: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/83pies/baikal_claims_to_have_a_cryptonight_asic/

If I were secretly mining using ASICs since January, these two news would have frightened me so I guess I would have sold something...

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