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Author Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis  (Read 354311 times)
eboard10
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October 03, 2015, 02:24:22 PM
 #1881

Still, it should follow the general rules of impulsive and corrective waves (5-3, a-b-c etc.).
Like Ryan said, yours already broke the rules for a valid impulse as both your (4)-(1) and 4-1 overlap, which afaik is only allowed for an impulsive count within a leading or ending diagonal.

Agreed. What I was trying to say is that it will follow the simple wave trends (5 up, 3 down) while all other rules such as overlappings, fib retracements won't necessarily be followed. So I still see the bull run as an extended (3)rd wave made up of 5 waves and a long corrective wave (4), before the next rise.
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October 04, 2015, 04:15:48 AM
 #1882

I tried playing with Elliott Wave theory on LTCBTC and the medium term prospect looks considerably more bearish than Bitcoin. Still, a huge buying opportunity lies ahead for Litecoin. FWIW.

LTCBTC - Patience Pays $$$

It is impossible, on the longer term, to count LTC/BTC. It's somewhat of a derivative that is dictated by the BTC/USD price and LTC/USD price. To an Elliott Waver, that chart looks corrective since it has so much overlap, too.

I don't see why it would be impossible for LTCBTC to follow a count. Since Litecoin, like all other major cryptocurrencies with large enough volumes, is inexorably tied to its big brother, it will follow a similar pattern and the LTCBTC trend should therefore be bound by the general EW rules.

I do agree, however, that because LTCBTC trades in much smaller volumes than LTCUSD or LTCCNY, the price won't necessarily follow the Fibonacci retracements and extensions (in the commentary of the article linked above, I did mention that the price could go lower than the 94% retracement). Still, it should follow the general rules of impulsive and corrective waves (5-3, a-b-c etc.).

I see what you're saying... It has 5 up and 3 down even though it has overlap, and due to the low volume (and depth(liquidity)), it has the tendency to overshoot easily, causing the overlaps. I feel that on shorter terms, it may be countable, but on that long term chart, it isn't. It's entire history looks more like a large range rather than any discernible trend. It tends to spike higher when LTC/USD out paces BTC/USD on gains. This may be because it has lower volume, but arbitrage should keep it in check from diverging too much from the difference between BTC and LTC fiat price. It's akin to XAUUSD rising when the Dollar drops against EUR and GBP. If LTC/USD rises with BTC (% wise), LTC/BTC should stay relatively flat or the arbitrage bots will fire into overdrive until the disparity is equalized.
The main point I'm making is that even if you can count some parts, the bigger picture is uncountable (following the three rules of EW) and therefore, unreliable due to the fact that LTC/BTC is technically a derivative as long as the leading crypto currencies remain priced in fiat as the primary factor of valuation. If eventually BTC (and LTC) uncouples from valuation in fiat, then the pure crypto markets will really shine and have a much higher efficiency, and by default, a more accurate forecast in the charts. Until that time, imo, it's not the best thing to base trades on.

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October 04, 2015, 07:39:34 AM
 #1883

Im bullish long term ltc but bearish med to short term until it hits my target under $1

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October 15, 2015, 11:15:08 AM
 #1884

My take on the current price movement. The first fib levels represent the extension of Wave (A) to estimate levels for Wave (C). The second scale represents the extension of Wave 1 of C to estimate the levels for Wave 5 of C. It's possible that Wave (C) will be topping near the $273 mark as the 1.618 extension of Wave (A), assuming my count is valid.


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October 15, 2015, 11:35:37 AM
 #1885

My take on the current price movement. The first fib levels represent the extension of Wave (A) to estimate levels for Wave (C). The second scale represents the extension of Wave 1 of C to estimate the levels for Wave 5 of C. It's possible that Wave (C) will be topping near the $273 mark as the 1.618 extension of Wave (A), assuming my count is valid.




Thanks for reviving this thread

Q: How is this pattern different from a similar pattern in June/july?

recall





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October 15, 2015, 12:12:06 PM
 #1886

Im bullish long term ltc but bearish med to short term until it hits my target under $1

Lol good luck with that, if litecoin went that low its dead like if bitcoin breaks under $100 or something it wont look good for it long term.
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October 15, 2015, 12:51:30 PM
 #1887

My take on the current price movement. The first fib levels represent the extension of Wave (A) to estimate levels for Wave (C). The second scale represents the extension of Wave 1 of C to estimate the levels for Wave 5 of C. It's possible that Wave (C) will be topping near the $273 mark as the 1.618 extension of Wave (A), assuming my count is valid.

Thanks for reviving this thread

Q: How is this pattern different from a similar pattern in June/july?

recall




The pattern is slightly different but similar overall. We are looking at corrective patterns in both cases.
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October 15, 2015, 03:00:52 PM
 #1888

Haven't looked in this thread for a while, where the hell is chessnut? He hasn't posted in a long time. I used to really enjoy his analysis.





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October 15, 2015, 03:02:54 PM
 #1889

he declared bankruptcy.
LFC_Bitcoin
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October 15, 2015, 03:12:52 PM
 #1890

he declared bankruptcy.

That's you when you run out of borrowed coins to short isn't it tarms Wink




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October 15, 2015, 03:13:48 PM
 #1891

plenty of coins to borrow.
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October 15, 2015, 03:15:45 PM
 #1892

plenty of coins to borrow.

All good fun amigo. These prices are all childs play. I guess these times are still a bit of foreplay in the bitcoin world. Nothing significant has happened for a while. We wait to see when/if the real action will take place.

Good luck!




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October 16, 2015, 05:12:41 AM
 #1893

Im bullish long term ltc but bearish med to short term until it hits my target under $1

Lol good luck with that, if litecoin went that low its dead like if bitcoin breaks under $100 or something it wont look good for it long term.
Thats why it shall go down there.. I doubt btc will go that low. In trading persception is everything.. You got a long road ahead of ya

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October 16, 2015, 06:56:12 AM
 #1894

plenty of coins to borrow.

All good fun amigo. These prices are all childs play. I guess these times are still a bit of foreplay in the bitcoin world. Nothing significant has happened for a while. We wait to see when/if the real action will take place.

Good luck!

relatively speaking, a rise from $223 to $260 is still quite big. It's about 20% increase in a few days.

In absolute terms, it's not that big, especially not considering the history of bitcoin, but it's still not a small thing.
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October 16, 2015, 07:31:38 AM
 #1895

Im bullish long term ltc but bearish med to short term until it hits my target under $1

Lol good luck with that, if litecoin went that low its dead like if bitcoin breaks under $100 or something it wont look good for it long term.
Thats why it shall go down there.. I doubt btc will go that low. In trading persception is everything.. You got a long road ahead of ya

Well, assuming the count I posted plays out (that or a rise to ~$292) then we are very likely going to visit sub $100 levels at some point next year, in the mid to high double-digits. A great buying opportunity for everyone but, coincidentally, many will be hesitant to buy fearing lower lows or worse, that Bitcoin has capitulated and will consequently miss out on this opportunity.
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October 16, 2015, 08:15:32 AM
 #1896

Im bullish long term ltc but bearish med to short term until it hits my target under $1

Lol good luck with that, if litecoin went that low its dead like if bitcoin breaks under $100 or something it wont look good for it long term.
Thats why it shall go down there.. I doubt btc will go that low. In trading persception is everything.. You got a long road ahead of ya

Well, assuming the count I posted plays out (that or a rise to ~$292) then we are very likely going to visit sub $100 levels at some point next year, in the mid to high double-digits. A great buying opportunity for everyone but, coincidentally, many will be hesitant to buy fearing lower lows or worse, that Bitcoin has capitulated and will consequently miss out on this opportunity.

I've been watching the EW bears saying stuff life this for a year now, even if technically bitcoin should go down, it doesnt because people are such good hodlers and the price when under $200 is so "cheap".   If it should go down its probably just more sideways until it should go up.
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October 16, 2015, 10:01:19 AM
 #1897

Im bullish long term ltc but bearish med to short term until it hits my target under $1

Lol good luck with that, if litecoin went that low its dead like if bitcoin breaks under $100 or something it wont look good for it long term.
Thats why it shall go down there.. I doubt btc will go that low. In trading persception is everything.. You got a long road ahead of ya

Well, assuming the count I posted plays out (that or a rise to ~$292) then we are very likely going to visit sub $100 levels at some point next year, in the mid to high double-digits. A great buying opportunity for everyone but, coincidentally, many will be hesitant to buy fearing lower lows or worse, that Bitcoin has capitulated and will consequently miss out on this opportunity.


How the sentiment generated by sub-100 valuation will impact your analysis? In other terms is it possible that
wave counts will be invalidated by the panic/fear/disengagement triggered by a mid to high double-digits "doom"
scenario?

(sorry for the naive questions but I follow EW analysis only tangentially)

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
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October 16, 2015, 10:08:40 AM
 #1898

he declared bankruptcy.

That is not true. I spoke with chessnut lately he is doing fine. This speculation forum tired him out.

Ask the stranger he knows who you really are.
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October 16, 2015, 12:46:44 PM
 #1899

How the sentiment generated by sub-100 valuation will impact your analysis? In other terms is it possible that
wave counts will be invalidated by the panic/fear/disengagement triggered by a mid to high double-digits "doom"
scenario?

(sorry for the naive questions but I follow EW analysis only tangentially)

EW theory basically tracks market sentiment so panic is what's going to trigger sub-$100 prices. Please note that with EW, nothing is set in stone and there are almost always alternative counts or extensions that can play out. That's the beauty of EW theory, it is made of a series of rules that are flexible enough to allow for changes in sentiment at any point in time.
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October 16, 2015, 07:13:53 PM
 #1900

Updated chart from before with the latest price movements. You can also find it in the comments of the article I posted yesterday, BTCUSD Short Term Corrective Rally.

Quote
Update on the recent jump to $267 which is following the count in the OP as a Wave 3 of C, hitting the 3.618 extension of Wave 1. We should expect a short but sharp retrace before the last move up to ~$274 as the top of the entire corrective move. Stay tuned for more.

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