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Author Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis  (Read 354088 times)
Calabi–Yau Manifold
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June 23, 2015, 10:34:34 AM
 #1681

To me it looks more like the log trend is still holding! just a slight overthrow.



Yes of coarse it is, but it is important to take note that it has punctured it because of the way it is behaving below at this point in time.

Chessmut this is joke? We are under longterm uptrend line. If we go up the line, we can consider return to uptrend but now we are still under line...
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June 23, 2015, 11:39:33 AM
 #1682

To me it looks more like the log trend is still holding! just a slight overthrow.



Yes of coarse it is, but it is important to take note that it has punctured it because of the way it is behaving below at this point in time.

Chessmut this is joke? We are under longterm uptrend line. If we go up the line, we can consider return to uptrend but now we are still under line...

The point is this zone is uncertain territory. It could go either way, depending on your bias



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SebastianJu
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June 23, 2015, 11:59:43 AM
 #1683

Probably he means that the zone was tested already once. It didnt break it but it might be that its tested again now and broken this time. Im not sure how certain such scenario would be though.

Maybe chessnut should explain himself.

To me it looks more like the log trend is still holding! just a slight overthrow.



Yes of coarse it is, but it is important to take note that it has punctured it because of the way it is behaving below at this point in time.

Chessmut this is joke? We are under longterm uptrend line. If we go up the line, we can consider return to uptrend but now we are still under line...

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June 24, 2015, 12:09:19 AM
 #1684

To me it looks more like the log trend is still holding! just a slight overthrow.



Yes of coarse it is, but it is important to take note that it has punctured it because of the way it is behaving below at this point in time.

Chessmut this is joke? We are under longterm uptrend line. If we go up the line, we can consider return to uptrend but now we are still under line...


Please, no its not a freaking joke, you dont need an EW analyst to tell you that price is under a simple trendline! I know we are under the logterm trendline but after puncturing a particularly charitable trendline (drawn above 3kyuan spike, we are probably up and out of the genuine trendline) we have fallen in a corrective form not an impulsive form, this is significant. It means that we have probably not reached the top of this move.

having said that, the smaller local count is looking bearish, we might see slightly lower levels before a larger bounce.


.... see this is what Im talking about. Looking at the points of coincidence It is easy to see that this is probably the real log downtrend and we are up and out of this for a week now. We can dismiss the 3k yuan spike as a throw over as easily as you can dismiss the last Calabi, but because I like to use only robust arguments I give charity to the very last possibility. the evidence is compiling that a base is forming and that is what Im looking for until we have more evidence period.


SmoothCurves
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June 24, 2015, 06:48:00 AM
 #1685

To me it looks more like the log trend is still holding! just a slight overthrow.



Yes of coarse it is, but it is important to take note that it has punctured it because of the way it is behaving below at this point in time.

Chessmut this is joke? We are under longterm uptrend line. If we go up the line, we can consider return to uptrend but now we are still under line...


Please, no its not a freaking joke, you dont need an EW analyst to tell you that price is under a simple trendline! I know we are under the logterm trendline but after puncturing a particularly charitable trendline (drawn above 3kyuan spike, we are probably up and out of the genuine trendline) we have fallen in a corrective form not an impulsive form, this is significant. It means that we have probably not reached the top of this move.

having said that, the smaller local count is looking bearish, we might see slightly lower levels before a larger bounce.


.... see this is what Im talking about. Looking at the points of coincidence It is easy to see that this is probably the real log downtrend and we are up and out of this for a week now. We can dismiss the 3k yuan spike as a throw over as easily as you can dismiss the last Calabi, but because I like to use only robust arguments I give charity to the very last possibility. the evidence is compiling that a base is forming and that is what Im looking for until we have more evidence period.



Amazing post. I really hope you're right!
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June 24, 2015, 09:49:47 AM
 #1686

Amazing post. I really hope you're right!

Somebody pointed out to me the BTCUSD charts, stamp and finex, which I havent been following lately. Seems like those are in fact firmly under the log trend either way, so Im a bit more conservative now.

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June 24, 2015, 02:53:28 PM
 #1687

Amazing post. I really hope you're right!

Somebody pointed out to me the BTCUSD charts, stamp and finex, which I havent been following lately. Seems like those are in fact firmly under the log trend either way, so Im a bit more conservative now.

Probably because of USD strength over the past year or so.  Euro seems to have broken the downtrend also, albeit on a less than impressive breakout, but we have seen a slow ramp before in crypto.  I agree that we are in a zone of uncertainty now.

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June 24, 2015, 03:08:08 PM
 #1688

Amazing post. I really hope you're right!

Somebody pointed out to me the BTCUSD charts, stamp and finex, which I havent been following lately. Seems like those are in fact firmly under the log trend either way, so Im a bit more conservative now.

I remember BTC being in a very similar situation a couple of times already since the $1163 peak, where the trend had been broken only to fall down hard again. I think the EW count is a much more reliable indicator in general.

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June 29, 2015, 01:27:15 PM
 #1689

^ Doubt it'll stop at 260 right now, to be followed by a dump to 220. Pretty well supported so far by volume and price/volume metrics. That said, we're in FOMO territory, and 260 is likely resistance for now. Retracement to 245-250, then one more push up above 260 more likely, imo.

EDIT missed the shorter time frame volume divs. So, likely to stop here, but unlikely imo to go back to 220 w/o at least another attempt to break 260, that's what I'm trying to clumsily express Cheesy

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fabrizio123
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June 29, 2015, 04:50:14 PM
 #1690

^ Doubt it'll stop at 260 right now, to be followed by a dump to 220. Pretty well supported so far by volume and price/volume metrics. That said, we're in FOMO territory, and 260 is likely resistance for now. Retracement to 245-250, then one more push up above 260 more likely, imo.

EDIT missed the shorter time frame volume divs. So, likely to stop here, but unlikely imo to go back to 220 w/o at least another attempt to break 260, that's what I'm trying to clumsily express Cheesy

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260 is possible, also more than that, but wave 3 was quite strong compared to 1, this 5th can easily be a failure.
Did someone try to apply some ew to ltc, they're going crazy in these days
eboard10
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June 29, 2015, 07:02:26 PM
 #1691

^ Doubt it'll stop at 260 right now, to be followed by a dump to 220. Pretty well supported so far by volume and price/volume metrics. That said, we're in FOMO territory, and 260 is likely resistance for now. Retracement to 245-250, then one more push up above 260 more likely, imo.

EDIT missed the shorter time frame volume divs. So, likely to stop here, but unlikely imo to go back to 220 w/o at least another attempt to break 260, that's what I'm trying to clumsily express Cheesy

Mmmh... Self quote, best quote Smiley
260 is possible, also more than that, but wave 3 was quite strong compared to 1, this 5th can easily be a failure.
Did someone try to apply some ew to ltc, they're going crazy in these days

Yeah, ltc is really volatile! Trying to identify a count isn't easy but on LTCBTC it looks like we're either going through a Wave 4 of C or a new X assuming a corrective ABC move has completed. If the latter is true, this means that the subsequent downtrend will probably last anywhere between 1-2 years.

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June 30, 2015, 07:35:33 AM
 #1692

Now that we have clearly broken upward out of the down trend I am going to build on the proposition that this is a triangle breakout. It is fair to assume that this is the beginning or midterm of a significant correction of the entire downtrend.

If this is a triangle breakup, at first glance it is going to produce wave C of an ABC towards 2000-3000 yuan. There is another possibility which is a more obscure count, however it could potentially instate the bottoming of the down trend. A WXYXZ combination. Its something Ive only really considered very recently because I really didnt think of it until I began considering the local count was a triangle. It strikes me because a triangle in the form of Z is really the only way this thing could bottom above the penultimate lows.

I think it is neat because we have almost perfect alternation within the triple. W is a flat, Y is a zz, and Z is a triangle (perhaps a bit small in form).

Ill just leave it here for the other EW'ers to talk about. Would be great to have some discussion on this.





Iv'e said many times that triangles are terminal moves, well in this case it would be terminal in a slightly different sense of the word Wink

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June 30, 2015, 11:11:36 AM
 #1693

eboard10
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July 01, 2015, 06:58:36 AM
 #1694

There is also the possibility that we just completed Wave 2 of the final move down, having reached the 61.8% retracement of Wave 1:


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July 01, 2015, 07:08:12 AM
 #1695

There is also the possibility that we just completed Wave 2 of the final move down, having reached the 61.8% retracement of Wave 1:


i was in that camp too, but now, only partially. Sentiment seems strong this will go up to $300, which is just below where 100% of wave 1 would be invalidated?



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chessnut
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July 01, 2015, 07:49:34 AM
 #1696

There is also the possibility that we just completed Wave 2 of the final move down, having reached the 61.8% retracement of Wave 1:


The i-ii labelled on your chart I count to actually be iv (triangle) v (truncated) because I think it makes a much cleaner count internally and for the abc. Even so it wouldnt disturb the idea too much that we could possibly be in wave II. Wave II would then be in a state of throw-over above the log downtrend line, and the clock is ticking. it should resolve quickly.

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July 02, 2015, 04:32:58 AM
 #1697

This is bullish corrective form for the time being. It could produce a triple zz.




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July 02, 2015, 09:23:49 AM
 #1698

In bullish scenario wave 2 should be much longer in time IMO. The target shown is 0.618-1 time of wave 1:



Closer look:



Beware that most wave targets here are not aligned to fibos and put intuitively only.

I haven't drawn bearish (red) count yet. It supposes nested 1-2's here, but I'm not sure it would play out.

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chessnut
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July 02, 2015, 09:45:07 AM
 #1699

In bullish scenario wave 2 should be much longer in time IMO. The target shown is 0.618-1 time of wave 1:

Beware that most wave targets here are not aligned to fibos and put intuitively only.

I haven't drawn bearish (red) count yet. It supposes nested 1-2's here, but I'm not sure it would play out.

our larger counts are different, the count I was referring to was this one.




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July 02, 2015, 10:04:27 AM
 #1700

I think there are not enough subwaves in your 1. It is possible to force it but then 4th subwave is very much shorter than 2nd. Can you show how would you subdivide it?
Also there are so clear divergences between my ((iii)) and ((v)) which I can't ignore (EWO, RSI, daily CMO, volume and bid/ask volume ratio). Even though ((v)) is extended.

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