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Author Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis  (Read 354333 times)
Fabrizio89
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April 03, 2015, 09:09:31 AM
 #1341

That could very well work out, chess, volume is dying off and didn't manage to increase during this run up. Bear divergences are being printed all over this. Those self dumps we saw on finex were probably an attempt at resetting low timeframes indicators to trap more people in longs at the top. I took my profits and will just see if I'm right.

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Morecoin Freeman
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April 03, 2015, 09:33:34 AM
 #1342

Could become a spectacular weekend dump, right?

Ask the stranger he knows who you really are.
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April 03, 2015, 11:11:30 AM
 #1343

Could become a spectacular weekend dump, right?

somehow i doubt it. everyone seems to be bearish but nothing has been happening for quite awhile. Over easter weekend it is pretty unlikely for the sideways trend to change.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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April 03, 2015, 11:28:03 AM
 #1344

Indicators show incoming decline, which could be epic. But how about new people entering Bitcoin via Coinbase and Circle? How does that affect supply and demand?
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April 03, 2015, 04:59:20 PM
 #1345

I've been monitoring Coinbase against the other exchanges for awhile now.  They seem to be getting the new money in much faster than the other exchanges.  Their trading fee's just went live and I was surprised that the volume really didn't change much.

 


 
 
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chessnut
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April 04, 2015, 02:15:26 AM
 #1346

Could become a spectacular weekend dump, right?

mhm, looks like its shaping up to tip about midnight sunday GMT

Indicators show incoming decline, which could be epic. But how about new people entering Bitcoin via Coinbase and Circle? How does that affect supply and demand?

Its an EW thread, not FA. EW and FA are not exclusive so you cant count the fundamentals twice so to speak. One or the other, but never both. 

bassclef
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April 04, 2015, 04:54:37 AM
 #1347

That could very well work out, chess, volume is dying off and didn't manage to increase during this run up. Bear divergences are being printed all over this. Those self dumps we saw on finex were probably an attempt at resetting low timeframes indicators to trap more people in longs at the top. I took my profits and will just see if I'm right.

We got a nice spike but volume fell off as we entered a consolidation period today. This is either the start of a bigger rally or it will simply peter out and correct/consolidate as demand is removed. But not to $220.

Honestly when you get a decent rally after bottom has been tested three times, it's a signal that there's not much left to sell in this price range. Remember the market exists as traders with a finite amount of coins. The success of a rally is defined by the amount of supply that's sold into it, so after a bottom formation you see the price spike up easily, almost in slow motion as there is very little selling by traders as they've either sold already or were sucked into a shakeout near the bottom. Look at the price tonight, it's sitting stably on very low volume with almost no selling. Plenty of buying though. Price drifting up on low volume after supply has been removed is normal and bullish.
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April 04, 2015, 05:11:32 PM
 #1348

Shh, you're all just supposed to follow patterns defined long ago based on empirical analysis of data that existed at the time of its creation!  Don't update the patterns based on more recent empirical analysis!  And definitely don't start analyzing the tape!  Ignore the man behind the curtain!

Fabrizio89
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April 04, 2015, 08:56:09 PM
 #1349

Take a look at 3D RSI and see if you can spot some bear divergences. s There are just a couple and they are tiny tiny :3. /s
If you want the price to go up, just hope for good news.

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SkyValeey
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April 04, 2015, 09:39:03 PM
 #1350

For bulltards "news" is when this fat pig from Mega is twitting about btc lol.
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April 04, 2015, 09:40:49 PM
 #1351

Take a look at 3D RSI and see if you can spot some bear divergences. s There are just a couple and they are tiny tiny :3. /s
If you want the price to go up, just hope for good news.

Unfortunately good news has no effect on price lately
coinableS
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April 05, 2015, 05:26:17 AM
 #1352

Take a look at 3D RSI and see if you can spot some bear divergences. s There are just a couple and they are tiny tiny :3. /s
If you want the price to go up, just hope for good news.

I don't know, I'm not seeing the divergence. They seem in sync. Price has been in a general downward motion since early-mid March and RSI has been following it down.

chessnut
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April 05, 2015, 12:42:05 PM
 #1353

There is one other possibility to explain why wave C started with an abc, that is with an ending diagonal, 5 waves of 3. As the triangle has been eliminated this is now the most probable count. As a flat ABC, 3-3-5, is not a terminal move as a triangle tends to be, we can count the impulse as I-II rather than A-B, suggesting that we could see new yearly lows follow a breakdown from this point. Ending diagonals characteristically break through the lower trend line sharply, watch out for this.



The count identified is unfolding nicely. We have seen a clear impulse down forming wave I or A, a clear abc 3-3-5 reaction forming wave ii or b, well defined risk levels and a helpful set of guidelines to accompany the count.

An impulse is always followed by a wave iii or C.  Both will make new lows below 1400, but a wave iii could take us once again below 1000 yuan, so this could be a critical point.

When an ending diagonal terminates it swiftly and fully retraces the entire move. A break below the lower trend line will probably be followed by fresh lows below 1450 within 48 hours of the breakdown. The impulse that will follow cannot pass the newly defined top after a breakdown of the ending diagonal, this is a good S/L level.


BldSwtTrs
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April 05, 2015, 01:44:59 PM
 #1354

What S/L stands for?
Phillis
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April 05, 2015, 01:53:18 PM
 #1355

What S/L stands for?

stop loss.
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April 05, 2015, 02:03:29 PM
Last edit: April 05, 2015, 03:03:51 PM by batou
 #1356

Invalid yet?

https://i.imgur.com/wpxFIQv.png

Edit:

Now for sure?
Afrikoin
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April 05, 2015, 04:16:18 PM
 #1357

Invalid yet?



Edit:

Now for sure?

Not always. I remember this chart from a couple of weeks ago. Price broke out from a triangle to the upside.One long green candle.

Look what happened after, an impulsive motive wave.

All i'm saying is, there's a chance it could go the other way




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chessnut
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April 05, 2015, 11:06:25 PM
 #1358

Invalid yet?


Edit:

Now for sure?

My count? no, not invalid, might start looking ugly at 1632 but i like what i see here

Xiaoxiao
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April 05, 2015, 11:24:04 PM
 #1359

Chessnut-- were you joking when you said huge dump/fireworks at Sunday 12 GMT ?  Nothing happened then, just a steady climb to where we are at now. 

Do you think 236 BTSP/BFX was a bottom?
chessnut
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April 06, 2015, 12:35:23 AM
 #1360

Chessnut-- were you joking when you said huge dump/fireworks at Sunday 12 GMT ?  Nothing happened then, just a steady climb to where we are at now. 

Do you think 236 BTSP/BFX was a bottom?

do you think I meant on the hour? lol, no I wasnt joking. I think we will see dumps in the coming 24hr

I dont thnk 236 is a lasting bottom.

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