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Author Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis  (Read 354333 times)
Tzupy
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May 01, 2015, 01:02:31 PM
 #1521

...
By the way anatolio posted this chart today, what do you EW people say?



Let's see how this develops during the next 2 - 3 days. If there will be a rather deep correction, to 214$ or lower, with weak rebound, then sideways
for a couple of days, anatolio's chart would become highly probable, with an exception of the DCB from 170$, which should be stronger.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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chessnut
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May 03, 2015, 10:14:56 AM
 #1522

This is a nice count imo. Valid and fits in quite nicely.

Having said that, the big money has moved for the time being and trading conditions are BAD. Accuracy will be less and whipsaws be be more.


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May 03, 2015, 03:02:49 PM
 #1523

Holy smokes, that's a pretty bullish looking count chessnut! It's nice to see someone on here that tries to take an unbiased approach and posts both bearish and bullish TA.

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May 03, 2015, 03:36:29 PM
 #1524

Holy smokes, that's a pretty bullish looking count chessnut! It's nice to see someone on here that tries to take an unbiased approach and posts both bearish and bullish TA.
I know, right! I didn't know that an unbiased, interested party existed anymore. Refreshing after all this market has went through.
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May 03, 2015, 06:04:14 PM
 #1525

Seems DanV was right all along!

$210 (/$213) and up to $260.

Praise where its due



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chessnut
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May 03, 2015, 11:59:02 PM
 #1526

Seems DanV was right all along!

$210 (/$213) and up to $260.

Praise where its due

not yet, in case of ED the break up would have to be sharper than this and we still need to fully retrace the drop from 300. Its not looking good for Dans count.

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May 06, 2015, 02:18:02 PM
 #1527

Hey people?

SOme help here.

What I'm i looking at here ? 4 hour chart.






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May 06, 2015, 08:36:56 PM
 #1528

Hey people?

SOme help here.

What I'm i looking at here ? 4 hour chart.





Something complex corrective. Notice the declining volume? Likely an A and we are in the B now.

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May 06, 2015, 09:18:45 PM
 #1529

Something complex corrective. Notice the declining volume? Likely an A and we are in the B now.
Could we be in 3 of (C), if (i) of 1 is a leading diagonal? Or would that even be allowed?



EDIT: Nvm, I see this possibility was already invalidated at Finex and Stamp. Still, for educational purposes, is the 1 in the above pic valid? Not sure on the rules regarding diagonals in impulses :s

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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May 06, 2015, 10:02:24 PM
 #1530

Something complex corrective. Notice the declining volume? Likely an A and we are in the B now.
Could we be in 3 of (C), if (i) of 1 is a leading diagonal? Or would that even be allowed?



EDIT: Nvm, I see this possibility was already invalidated at Finex and Stamp. Still, for educational purposes, is the 1 in the above pic valid? Not sure on the rules regarding diagonals in impulses :s

Yeah, that would be valid, though I would move the (i) to the left one high. But what are your thoughts now?

Edit:
This is still looking good, though the target may end up reduced slightly. We'll have to see what happens in the coming days

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May 07, 2015, 01:08:59 AM
 #1531

On the smaller time frame we can clearly see we broke down because of a triangle wave b towards 1420. a correction to 1400 would be a fair retrace before we could begin a possible wave c to 1600+/-


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May 07, 2015, 01:12:15 AM
Last edit: May 07, 2015, 01:58:56 AM by JustAnotherSheep
 #1532

Yeah, that would be valid, though I would move the (i) to the left one high. But what are your thoughts now?

Edit:
This is still looking good, though the target may end up reduced slightly. We'll have to see what happens in the coming days
Ah, cheers. Not sure about now. All I know is that we seem to be in iv of (c), which at this rate should terminate fairly quickly with a likely target around $225-227 (same as you give above), or alternatively in iv of (v) of A/1 if you count 5 impulsive waves since $243 high, but I don't favor this count as (i) better divides into 3 and volume afaik shouldn't spike on the 5th.
 
Beats me what came before though. Complex (bear flag?) pattern? Double 3 of some form? Those don't take into account the seemingly impulsive structure of the middle and final waves though*, but I guess this interpretation could be bent. Chessnut's expanding triangle is an explanation I suppose, however expanding corrective patterns stretching beyond preceding wave boundaries in general don't make much sense/are way too advanced for a simple sheep like me :p

Edit: *Just realized a double 3 would in fact do that, I think.



Is the above count valid? And if it is, would it also require 3 more waves up in form of (Y) after correction, or is it possible for an A to be composed of WXY so that an impulsive C could still follow? (Haven't really read up on D3's at all)

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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May 07, 2015, 02:16:05 AM
 #1533


Edit: *Just realized a double 3 would in fact do that, I think.



Is the above count valid? And if it is, would it also require 3 more waves up in form of (Y) after correction, or is it possible for an A to be composed of WXY so that an impulsive C could still follow? (Haven't really read up on D3's at all)

Technically, a WXY cannot be made up of smaller WXY's however, this is Bitcoin, and with liquidity and much indecision going on (most of the time), I do tend to allow it myself. The same type of "bending" I do for flats where the B doesn't retrace as far as it should or a few other guide lines. That said, I do also think what we have is an ABC where B is nearly over if not already complete with truncation of the C. China did make a lower low since the BFX spike to 226.xx.

Yes an A can be comprised of a double/triple pattern, as well as B. C still must remain an impulse.

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May 07, 2015, 10:17:42 AM
 #1534

lol! Everytime i think i know some EW, more jibberish like (see above) come up and i'm humbled some more.
 "BAck down son!"



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Afrikoin
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May 07, 2015, 10:40:24 AM
 #1535



What are the blues, reds and brown?

Broadly, i can see

+ some higher order and lower degrees

+ see some 1-2-3-4-5 fractals

+ flat corrections too, triangles (higher and lower degree)

+ possibly more, just not sure if they mean anything

I can't figure out how to start labeling. Help?



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chessnut
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May 07, 2015, 12:28:43 PM
Last edit: May 07, 2015, 01:11:29 PM by chessnut
 #1536

I can't figure out how to start labeling. Help?

Every single market is at some stage within an impulse. look for the third wave, its all about the third wave. you cant miss it, the beautiful string beans, its da money honey. Its your EW compass. Even if the larger structure is a correction within a larger impulse there will be impulses. find the third wave, find the impulses, then find the corrective, and make it all valid. Its hard, but the process is built upon simple premise. Finding the count that is ideal on all time frames is really hard, small time frames give way to larger time frames, so start big and zoom in, not vice versa. You might find that an RSI might help you make decisions if wave v, for example, is unclear. An RSI signal is a compliment to the EW princile generally speaking. Get a good EW book and memorise the rules. Subscribe to EWI and watch videos of many pros in real time who do a consistent quality service.


Tell me, where is the key stone third wave in this chart? (there are two examples of major third waves, each may help you find your bearings, several examples of minor third waves, these help too.)





...... this is the answer. technically the circled third wave is of higher degree, but thats a really odd example. I would say the highlighted third wave is by far more obvious and more helpful to the analysis.



then by habbit you should rate the degree of any reversal, usually one degree of count takes the price from one local extreme to another.  You can quite easily see there are many significant reversals in this chart, rate them by their significance.





Now Im sure that you could have count this if you tried, but you need a more specific knowledge of the rules to know what comes next. you have an obvious 5 and 3 there, as illustrated. what follows breaks out of the downward channel (impulses tend to trend in a channel, this i reversal warning) and looks like an abc. you would know that there is no structure in EW as a 5-3-3, and you would know that there is a rare structure of 5-3-5-3-5 that takes a contracting shape like a triangle called a leading impulse.


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May 07, 2015, 12:38:42 PM
 #1537

I'm somewhat fascinated by the EW traders. I think EW is easy to misinterpret so I don't use it.
However, it has proven a powerful trading tool on here if used correctly. Very skillful trading. Kudos.

Ask the stranger he knows who you really are.
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May 07, 2015, 12:56:21 PM
 #1538

I can't figure out how to start labeling. Help?

Every single market is at some stage within an impulse. look for the third wave, its all about the third wave. you cant miss it, the beautiful string beans, its da money honey. Its your EW compass. Even if the larger structure is a correction within a larger impulse there will be impulses. find the third wave, find the impulses, then find the corrective, and make it all valid. Its hard, but the process is built upon simple premise. Finding the count that is ideal on all time frames is really hard, small time frames give way to larger time frames, so start big and zoom in, not vice versa. You might find that an RSI might help you make decisions if wave v, for example, is unclear. An RSI signal is a compliment to the EW princile generally speaking. Get a good EW book and memorise the rules. Subscribe to EWI and watch videos of many pros in real time who do a consistent quality service.


Tell me, where is the key stone third wave in this chart? (there are two examples of major third waves, each may help you find your bearings, several examples of minor third waves, these help too.)





...... this is the answer. technically the circled third wave is of higher degree, but thats a really odd example. I would say the highlighted third wave is by far more obvious and more helpful to the analysis.



Spotted both correctly Smiley immediately after, i tracked back and confirmed 1-2, meaning 4-5 follows after 3 Smiley *yaay*

So then, after such 1-2-3-4-5, ABCs may follow. Always? (not sure)

Also, correctives after motives - can take 1-2-3-4-5 form or ABC form? OR ABC encapsulating fractal 1-2-3-4-5's? (I think so) - correct me

Lastly - where do diagonals come in? Are they capsules for correctives? or motives? or both? or all?

*edit i could get used to the colour codes. I get lost in all the numbers




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May 07, 2015, 01:32:03 PM
 #1539


Spotted both correctly Smiley immediately after, i tracked back and confirmed 1-2, meaning 4-5 follows after 3 Smiley *yaay*

So then, after such 1-2-3-4-5, ABCs may follow. Always? (not sure)

Also, correctives after motives - can take 1-2-3-4-5 form or ABC form? OR ABC encapsulating fractal 1-2-3-4-5's? (I think so) - correct me

Lastly - where do diagonals come in? Are they capsules for correctives? or motives? or both? or all?

*edit i could get used to the colour codes. I get lost in all the numbers



there is no structure in EW of 5-3-3. This you have to know.
 

A five wave structure of 3, 3-3-3-3-3 (expanding, contracting, diagonal) may be impulsive in the form of wave c within a 5-3-5, v within an impulse (not a triangle though), an expanding diagonal may be a primary wave, but thats the only case. A triangle is not considered an impulse (i think?) but it is technically 5 waves. triangles are corrective none the less.

There are a lot of rules to know, dont underestimate that, but they are all simple and in simple terms. along with the rules, there are guidelines of how known structures tend to interact with one another, this is where character of structures comes into play. It is to easy to dismiss EW as astrology until one recognises how evidence compiles by guidelines and wave character to support counts. This is the element of plausibility, where the hard rules are the element of validity. Spend a few years studying EW and there will be magic times. It cant happen very often, but sometimes the form of a count is strong and supported by many various and compounding factors of evidence.The market tends so strongly to play out to textbook EW guidlines, not only in direction but character also, that those involved could hardly deny that it is truly the nature of the market observed. The best examples of this happening are the modest moves, Ending diagonals and triangles in particular.

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May 07, 2015, 01:34:37 PM
 #1540






there is no structure in EW of 5-3-3. This you have to know.
 

Thanks!  At least i now know what 5 - 3 -3 means! Always flew past me. Today was productive Smiley



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