Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

Could this be a 2 for another test of $ 300? i.e. 1, 2,3, 4, 5 of  a much larger magnitude?

wave c being wave i? not a chance imo.

There is a fair chance that this is unfolding. This could produce the form for an excellent short opportunity if it happens. waves iii iv and v that will  possibly conclude the bear market may unfold clearly before our eyes toward $100-$150




But in the case of an ending diagonal wave c, there is also the chance that we head on straight to 1300-1200 in a third wave extension and who knows where it will stop. So, I would encourage nobody to take longs despite a bit of upside potential.

[1714041188]

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[SkyValeey]

Very good call about drop some more and "a".. China is bullish, the real rebound is on a good way

Thanks for sharing this at:) (i can't see it at tradingview yet)

[michaelGedi]

Very good call about drop some more and "a".. China is bullish, the real rebound is on a good way

Thanks for sharing this at:) (i can't see it at tradingview yet)

I wouldn't buy into the china news big time necessarily, seems they got a pump out of it, but the true effects will take time to materialise

[SkyValeey]

What news?
I mean chinese ex. They're leading sheepfold alltime. Stamp and finex and btc-e doesn't matter. Just follow China.

[michaelGedi]

Very good call about drop some more and "a".. China is bullish, the real rebound is on a good way

Thanks for sharing this at:) (i can't see it at tradingview yet)

I wouldn't buy into the china news big time necessarily, seems they got a pump out of it, but the true effects will take time to materialise

I'm speculating that the china pump was probably an attempt to get some momentum over this news:

http://www.news.gov.hk/en/categories/finance/html/2015/03/20150325_150920.shtml


of course, news is always priced in. At least it is now 

I don't buy the idea that China is bullish, correction maybe incoming though of course

[Afrikoin]

Chessnut, I'm i right on this?

[madmat]

Chessnut, I'm i right on this?

4 is above 1. So I think it is wrong.

[Afrikoin]

Chessnut, I'm i right on this?

4 is above 1. So I think it is wrong.

sorry. i realized that too. edited now.

[chessnut]

Chessnut, I'm i right on this?

4 is above 1. So I think it is wrong.

sorry. i realized that too. edited now.

see the form, make the count. not vice versa! learn what an impulse looks like. look at the last chart I posted, that is a good example. its much easier to see exactly what is not an impulse however.

[chessnut]

There is a fair chance that this is unfolding. This could produce the form for an excellent short opportunity if it happens. waves iii iv and v that will  possibly conclude the bear market may unfold clearly before our eyes toward $100-$150




But in the case of an ending diagonal wave c, there is also the chance that we head on straight to 1300-1200 in a third wave extension and who knows where it will stop. So, I would encourage nobody to take longs despite a bit of upside potential.

The correction began with an abc wave A, this means it is a flat correction, 3-3-5. we ave seen a characteristically deep correction of wave A. We could rally to around $260 from here before aggressive downside, or we could go lower before a wave C correction to around $250 and then fall like a sack of bricks. There is a chance that we fall straight towards yearly lows from here but its very chancy indeed.

[yui]

I know this is ageism but it must be asked. Chessnut is 22? Why should his opinion about anything matter, especially investments?

[chessnut]

I know this is ageism but it must be asked. Chessnut is 22? Why should his opinion about anything matter, especially investments?

My opinion doesnt matter. Im just playing a fun game on the market. Im not an investor. Im just a trader and Ive been trading forex bitcoin and stocks for about 4 years. Why do I like to share my opinion on this forum? Articulating my ideas on a forum is a good way to keep a log and helps keep me objective.

I have an intuition for trading and especially chess, I recently discovered that I am an INTJ by Myer Briggs personality type, be that as it may.

I love to recommend this book to read. " Reminiscences of a stock operator " by Edwin Lefevre. Apart from an authentic and epic wall street story you might see things from my perspective.

For what its worth Im up 34% on Dnaleors speculation game   do you know how much that is on 20x leverage?

[futureofbitcoin]

Chessnut is only 22? Wow, I thought he was a university professor or something.

But why does that matter? Whether an opinion has any weight doesn't depend on who said it, it depends on the content of that opinion. And from what I've seen, Chessnut's done pretty well.

[SkyValeey]

I know this is ageism but it must be asked. Chessnut is 22? Why should his opinion about anything matter, especially investments?

Because his analysis is often really goood and can help us traders/at maniacs to trade better? :-)

Thank you Chessnut:D Last days your AT is very similar to my bearish vision.

Best bearish sceanrio is long squeeze:) Finex long swaps really need this

Btw. So my answer is he's doing it to help another people by sharing his analysis. Helping is best fun :-)

[michaelGedi]

I know this is ageism but it must be asked. Chessnut is 22? Why should his opinion about anything matter, especially investments?

I find that comment hillarious in many ways  

why should anyone's opinion about anything matter? what infinite variables could come into play, what biases, what cognitive illusions...

it seems to me what's important to you is your opinion of his opinion. Anyways, In my recent return to "trading", in practice and in education, following this call down has been quite profitable  I don't expect that to always be the case but take from that what you will. If you have invested, you should not be reading trading posts, you should stick to fundamentals and long term possibilities.

Also it should be evident to anyone with an small amount of observation that in a space that is only 5 years old or so, age should not matter very much.

[barbs]

If anything I appreciate he's putting his youthful energy into this, I'm not exactly old but when I was 22 my brain was flying overtime in certain respects.

22 is not 15.

[Queeq]

Shouldn't ii (we're currently in) retrace at least 50% of previous i, which happens to be at 269.83 (1663 on Huobi), and which is only possible if subwave b is finished?

[Morecoin Freeman]

Chessnut is only 22? Wow, I thought he was a university professor or something.

I agree and I also really appreciate chessnuts opinion.

Keep it going buddy!

[chessnut]

Shouldn't ii (we're currently in) retrace at least 50% of previous i, which happens to be at 269.83 (1663 on Huobi), and which is only possible if subwave b is finished?

Ive never heard of a rule that states that wave i must retrace at least 50%, although I know that it often happens and is probably a guideline. I heard another EW analyst say that time wise, as a guideline, wave ii takes 50% of the time of wave i to complete also. We have had a 38% correction and with the form of this flat so far I think its a pretty good count.

[michaelGedi]

Shouldn't ii (we're currently in) retrace at least 50% of previous i, which happens to be at 269.83 (1663 on Huobi), and which is only possible if subwave b is finished?

Ive never heard of a rule that states that wave i must retrace at least 50%, although I know that it often happens and is probably a guideline. I heard another EW analyst say that time wise, as a guideline, wave ii takes 50% of the time of wave i to complete also. We have had a 38% correction and with the form of this flat so far I think its a pretty good count.

there is a general rule for classic TA that says retrace 50% to 2/3 of any major move that goes in the direction of the current trend. I think that rule is just a guideline.