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Author Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis  (Read 354088 times)
var53
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April 30, 2015, 10:04:51 AM
 #1501


Looks like we reached your target now on OKCoin.


It was a triangle thrust. good triangle form and characteristically sharp. we could see a little higher from here but the fact that we have just penetrated the upper trendline doesnt bother me, the complete count is very strong. Upside is very limited here.

Do you anticipate 240-245?

No not that high. 240 would be a push.

Looks like your correct.  We just got near 240 (239) and a 5k wall popped up right there along with heavy ask's going all the way up.

It was still below the 1480 chessnut said invalidated the count.
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LFC_Bitcoin
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April 30, 2015, 10:19:23 AM
 #1502

If we have another weeks rest, the count will have changed, it could be bullish. wave iii waits for no man.
This is the chessnut I like to see

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April 30, 2015, 10:35:23 AM
 #1503

How about we remain calm and see how this 6H channel behaves.  It is not unusual for channel break outs to resume trend.



More for perspective would be Ryan's H&S pattern that, won't be invalidated till $255?



LAstly, recall DanVs projection from $210 up to $260?



If we are going to break $200, we will need a heavy force, so this could be the calm before storm.

My opinion



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JustAnotherSheep
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April 30, 2015, 04:14:03 PM
 #1504

For the red count as drawn the 'red ii' at 1431 is now invalidated (as we have gone above it), but the higher white count is not - it would be invalidated (as drawn) at 1480 on OKCoin and 1500 on Huobi. I say 'as drawn' because the overall count down from 1900 CNY would not be invalidated if these levels were breached.

ATM this *could* just be a higher red ii within the same white count ...
Indeed, imo it looks like we formed and are just finishing a larger (a)(b)(c) 2, with 5 waves of (c) completed if I've counted correct, although there might be a final small push up as I'm unsure on the degree of that v (anyone feel free to correct heh).



Since it stopped short of 238.5 the larger count does not appear invalidated and we may begin 3 now, though I don't like the fact that 2 broke resistance nor that it retraced ~90% of 1. We may yet see invalidation soon, but considering how close price is to definite stop-loss and the potential of the next wave, current level to me seems like a rather good moment to open short.

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fortif78
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April 30, 2015, 04:41:58 PM
 #1505

For the red count as drawn the 'red ii' at 1431 is now invalidated (as we have gone above it), but the higher white count is not - it would be invalidated (as drawn) at 1480 on OKCoin and 1500 on Huobi. I say 'as drawn' because the overall count down from 1900 CNY would not be invalidated if these levels were breached.

ATM this *could* just be a higher red ii within the same white count ...
Indeed, imo it looks like we formed and are just finishing a larger (a)(b)(c) 2, with 5 waves of (c) completed if I've counted correct, although there might be a final small push up as I'm unsure on the degree of that v (anyone feel free to correct heh).



Since it stopped short of 238.5 the larger count does not appear invalidated and we may begin 3 now, though I don't like the fact that 2 broke resistance nor that it retraced ~90% of 1. We may yet see invalidation soon, but considering how close price is to definite stop-loss and the potential of the next wave, current level to me seems like a rather good moment to open short.


I am following an extremely similar mapping. I had ~1440 labeled as cautious territory, 1480 as invalidation. Excited to see how it plays out.  Grin

EDIT: Whoops, didn't see you had you invalidation labeled on there as well. Looks like we're watching the same spots.

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April 30, 2015, 05:27:18 PM
 #1506

yeah this is invalidated

why  you think so?
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April 30, 2015, 05:35:44 PM
 #1507

yeah this is invalidated

why  you think so?

Draw a trend line from the ~297 top in March and connect it to the lower high of ~260ish from the beginning of April.
Last night's push up was the first move to clearly break through the resistance from that trend line.

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phoenix1
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April 30, 2015, 06:06:26 PM
 #1508

yeah this is invalidated

why  you think so?

Draw a trend line from the ~297 top in March and connect it to the lower high of ~260ish from the beginning of April.
Last night's push up was the first move to clearly break through the resistance from that trend line.

That's not EW  Wink

Chessnut's white count may very well be invalidated in the coming hours, but at the moment it is not, only the red count,  for which JustAnotherSheep has provided what looks like a valid alt count
Would appreciate a comment from Chessnut or Ryan about this, even if we do push higher and invalidate the white count, for educational purposes  Smiley

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April 30, 2015, 08:23:01 PM
 #1509

Bitfinex and bitstamp out of the game
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April 30, 2015, 09:37:51 PM
 #1510

yeah this is invalidated

why  you think so?

Draw a trend line from the ~297 top in March and connect it to the lower high of ~260ish from the beginning of April.
Last night's push up was the first move to clearly break through the resistance from that trend line.

That's not EW  Wink

Chessnut's white count may very well be invalidated in the coming hours, but at the moment it is not, only the red count,  for which JustAnotherSheep has provided what looks like a valid alt count
Would appreciate a comment from Chessnut or Ryan about this, even if we do push higher and invalidate the white count, for educational purposes  Smiley


A count where 3 nested 1-2's was indeed invalidated on BFX. Not on China, though. This does not mean the imminent end to the bear market. There are plenty of counts where this is still valid. On the other hand, I can't even force a bullish count from the lows. It's just not there. If you refer to my thread, I spoke of a leading diagonal with a retrace to around 260. That's about as bullish as it can get, but not before a pullback here soon.

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April 30, 2015, 10:30:07 PM
 #1511

RyNinDaCleM, do you find the current move similar to the one of February 13-14? I find many indicators similar.
I mean, starting from about the same bottom, the market shouldn't be able to break resistance at 304$, to confirm a new bull market.
So this could reach about 280$ before reverting to a bearish channel? I guess the answer will come tomorrow, if it breaks up further.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
SmoothCurves
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April 30, 2015, 10:46:45 PM
 #1512

See you all in the $400's USD

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JsenZwSs-Red-c-wave-update/
phoenix1
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April 30, 2015, 11:05:46 PM
 #1513


When this guy stops posting charts with moonshots in minutes I will take him seriously. Until then I will give continue to his analysis a miss, whatever it says.

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Wandererfromthenorth
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April 30, 2015, 11:33:05 PM
 #1514

I drew this very simple chart before this move:




I was expecting a big move (short term that is, long term still heavily bearish...) after some more down first, but in the end we broke out right away and we got a decent breakout but the volume just bothers me, it's very low for such a move.

Also by looking at bid/asks it looks like these pumps lately are mostly caused by a little bit of seller exhaustion and asks (temporarily) decreasing, not real buying power with fresh fiat like it should if it was a strong rally. That's not exactly healthy pumping.



This might even go to $250 or more for now but I'm now even more skeptical than before...











By the way anatolio posted this chart today, what do you EW people say?

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April 30, 2015, 11:33:49 PM
 #1515


When this guy stops posting charts with moonshots in minutes I will take him seriously. Until then I will give continue to his analysis a miss, whatever it says.
Yeah look at this history, he only posted "long" charts. Needless to say the majority of them were wrong  Grin
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April 30, 2015, 11:44:12 PM
 #1516


When this guy stops posting charts with moonshots in minutes I will take him seriously. Until then I will give continue to his analysis a miss, whatever it says.
Yeah look at this history, he only posted "long" charts. Needless to say the majority of them were wrong  Grin

I've commented a few times about his charts being invalid before he even hit "publish".

For anatolio's chart. that is similar to my leading diagonal except he has his ending as a 3 waver. An ending diagonal would consist of 3 wavers so it is possible as he has it, but I think there are better options.

I will post something in a little while of what I'm talking about from my last post.

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April 30, 2015, 11:51:38 PM
 #1517

It was a good run, but my dominant totally invaldated  Cry

@wanderer, a triangle is actually an idea, just remove the upper trendline, it would be defined by the next rally.

I think this development somewhat entails bullishness, we are not unlikely to see a 62% retrace of the fall down from 1900.

another option is a leading diagonal ( I think Ryan posted this) which would likely need a deeper bullish retrace.

DanV is counting an ED, which entails a full retrace of the whole move down. The count is possible but not wise to assume following the guidelines, we are offered a stellar and key impulse where an ED is a 3-3-3-3-3 mov. it would take us to 320 possibly.


... and heres a little chart



RyNinDaCleM
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May 01, 2015, 12:45:14 AM
 #1518

This is the leading diagonal I spoke of. Clear and valid 5-3-5-3-5. Typical retracement would be 50-61.8% but it could go anywhere in that grey box. Note the dates


$213 is the lows I was talking about. Not the 166 low.
This chart has only corrective traits.
The purple boxes represent potentially valid impulse waves (5 waves that satisfy the three rules of EW). The first one is only on BFX. All other exchanges have 3 wavers in that position. the second and third (larger red box) obviously cannot make a full larger impulse. This makes a perfect WXY complex corrective wave for A. More reasons why this isn't a bullish formation is because the blue horizontal arrow. That signifies overlap that further voids any chance of making an impulse by extension. Therefore, this structure can only be counted as an ABC.


One more still valid count that may or may not get invalidated in the coming weeks is this

Nested waves, but it drops the third nested wave as a B of an irregular/expanding flat.

I honestly cannot even force (by bending rules) a count that is longer term bullish.

Natalia_AnatolioPAMM
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May 01, 2015, 09:02:05 AM
 #1519

Bitfinex and bitstamp out of the game

only for a while
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May 01, 2015, 12:54:55 PM
 #1520

This is the leading diagonal I spoke of. Clear and valid 5-3-5-3-5. Typical retracement would be 50-61.8% but it could go anywhere in that grey box. Note the dates
Interesting, didn't know you could project time as well with fibs. The date given would also allow for daily SMA200 to reach ~260-level, which happens to be where luc identifies main resistance.

Shame we'll have to grind through an entire month for a measly $30 move though, but at least the long term outlook is made even more bearish with that count Smiley

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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