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Author Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis  (Read 354088 times)
phoenix1
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April 17, 2015, 02:11:47 AM
 #1441

I'm giving an 85% chance we see double digits in this bear market. Bold, I know, but it just doesn't look good for any bullish scenario to develop in the near to mid term.

You might as well make it an even 90%  Grin.  I would give about a 20% chance of double digits in this bear market but about a 70% chance of lower prices from here.  It's hard to say that a market will drop 56.5% from current prices when the current price is already down 80%, even with bitcoin.  I believe there is a decent chance that 200-210 support holds and prices rise from here back to ATH.  I won't be surprised if it happens.

How about we take this somewhere else, outside of this thread ... cast your votes !!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1026986.0






"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves"  - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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Bicmac1973
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April 17, 2015, 07:13:52 AM
 #1442

It seems as if Ryns yellow count plays out, or is it just too early to tell?

signatures lie!
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April 17, 2015, 08:32:25 AM
 #1443

It seems as if Ryns yellow count plays out, or is it just too early to tell?

Yes, it seems so, after this apparently minor correction. To confirm this we should see a failed breakout tomorrow.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
podyx
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April 17, 2015, 09:36:06 AM
 #1444

Looks like we won't see 240? Seems like we're just going down instead
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April 17, 2015, 09:41:50 AM
 #1445

Looks like we won't see 240? Seems like we're just going down instead

In any case we will have to retest 210 to 215 one or two more times.

Always wrong until not.
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April 17, 2015, 10:05:35 AM
 #1446


What is the ideal candle size to use when looking at ew?  12h, 4h, 1h? 1d? 

Everything changes at every scale.

Sometimes I feel like I can get the overall feeling on big zoom and then go closer and see how it is pulling towards or away from it.



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Feri22
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April 17, 2015, 10:13:02 AM
 #1447

Looks like we won't see 240? Seems like we're just going down instead

In any case we will have to retest 210 to 215 one or two more times.

I think we'll even have to retest 200 too...
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April 17, 2015, 10:15:18 AM
 #1448

Looks like we won't see 240? Seems like we're just going down instead

In any case we will have to retest 210 to 215 one or two more times.

I think we'll even have to retest 200 too...

Yeah can see an overshoot (and collapse of bear phantasies) coming as well. Shouldn't last to long otherwise it is a sign for a pro-longed bearmarket.

Always wrong until not.
JustAnotherSheep
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April 17, 2015, 04:16:44 PM
 #1449

What is the ideal candle size to use when looking at ew?  12h, 4h, 1h? 1d? 

Everything changes at every scale.

Sometimes I feel like I can get the overall feeling on big zoom and then go closer and see how it is pulling towards or away from it.
E-Waves are fractal, and so theoretically can be analyzed (and traded) at any scale. Realistically though, volume sets a lower limit of where waves are discernible. On sideways days at low volume exchanges (like Bitstamp as of late) you'll be hard-pressed to find form on anything below 15/30min candles. However, during moments of extreme volatility/volume (such as the drop to $160 bottom) you can easily spot clear wave structure on scales as low as 1min.

I believe the general rule of thumb is to track waves on at least 3 fractal degrees; One where you trade, one above for confirmation with the bigger picture, and one below for confirmation of subwave structure (at least that's what I do).
As long as you are able to do that, it should to my knowledge not matter much whether you are looking at daily or 15min candles, the rules and patterns are the same.

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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April 17, 2015, 06:01:41 PM
 #1450

Thanks for the reply.


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April 17, 2015, 06:38:29 PM
 #1451

What is the point of analyzing if whales can manipulate the price ...
btc4lifer
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April 17, 2015, 07:00:10 PM
 #1452

What is the point of analyzing if whales can manipulate the price ...

If whale/s wanted to truly manipulate they'd need to bring other speculators along with them by molding their manipulation such that other traders with similar skill sets (elliott wave in this case) would be able to interpret and there by join in and help make what they want happen.

Spreading quality FUD since 2011
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April 19, 2015, 09:47:21 AM
 #1453

This is my adjusted count. having recognized the clear form of the triangle the moment it resolved I should have seen this one earlier.

Note that having a clear impulse count down to the 1335 level (just 35yuan short of my minimum target) it is possible, but not overly probable, and certainly not confirmed that an ABC, the yellow count, is playing out. My dominant count is however unchanged, I think there is significant risk of sub 1000 yuan retest soon.



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April 19, 2015, 03:27:50 PM
 #1454

My dominant count is however unchanged, I think there is significant risk of sub 1000 yuan retest soon.

Thanks Chessnut for staying on top of this thread with your updates. Looks like I'll hold onto my fiat a little longer, maybe I'll be lucky enough to grab some of those sub 1000 yuan coins  Smiley

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April 19, 2015, 06:07:13 PM
 #1455

Very good as usual.

I'm counting a pop or run up to 228-232 before this slide down.

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April 21, 2015, 06:59:42 AM
 #1456

This is my adjusted count. having recognized the clear form of the triangle the moment it resolved I should have seen this one earlier.

Note that having a clear impulse count down to the 1335 level (just 35yuan short of my minimum target) it is possible, but not overly probable, and certainly not confirmed that an ABC, the yellow count, is playing out. My dominant count is however unchanged, I think there is significant risk of sub 1000 yuan retest soon.


What do you think about DanVs call for $300? A wave 4 retracement



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chessnut
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April 21, 2015, 07:21:05 AM
 #1457

This is my adjusted count. having recognized the clear form of the triangle the moment it resolved I should have seen this one earlier.

Note that having a clear impulse count down to the 1335 level (just 35yuan short of my minimum target) it is possible, but not overly probable, and certainly not confirmed that an ABC, the yellow count, is playing out. My dominant count is however unchanged, I think there is significant risk of sub 1000 yuan retest soon.


What do you think about DanVs call for $300? A wave 4 retracement

I dont like it. he is counting an ED, thats a 3-3-3-3-3 move, but the keystone of this analysis is the impulse and complete flat from the 1800s.

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April 21, 2015, 07:29:31 AM
 #1458

Due to lack of major action, MACD in several time frames is slowly recovering towards 0, and with weak positive divergence.
This looks similar to the semi-failed breakout of February 12th. But in 12h frame the MACD is still significantly lower than back then.
And lately bullish moves have lacked strength, so I have doubts that the market would be able to build a major bullish pattern (315+).

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
WhatTheGox
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April 21, 2015, 07:37:43 AM
 #1459

This is my adjusted count. having recognized the clear form of the triangle the moment it resolved I should have seen this one earlier.

Note that having a clear impulse count down to the 1335 level (just 35yuan short of my minimum target) it is possible, but not overly probable, and certainly not confirmed that an ABC, the yellow count, is playing out. My dominant count is however unchanged, I think there is significant risk of sub 1000 yuan retest soon.


What do you think about DanVs call for $300? A wave 4 retracement


Are you talking about his prediction here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/EUytkasj-BTCUSD-FURTHER-SHORT-TERM-WEAKNESS-IN-STORE-WITH-OF-TARGET-210/ , if so its down to $210 first.
Afrikoin
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April 21, 2015, 07:47:39 AM
 #1460


Yes, that's the one. I am expecting $210, my issue is with his call after.

I should add DanV doesn't make specific targets. The arrow may point up to $360 but he is implying a move up. so could be $240? $260? not necessarily $300+



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