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Author Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis  (Read 354326 times)
ElectricMucus
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July 18, 2015, 09:33:11 PM
 #1781

Whilst I don't discount the notion that we very well could be in a wave B of the overall downtrend, I do reject the idea that wave B would only reach ~$316 USD as retracement from an A that fell from ~$1100 to ~$155. The ratios just don't add up.
Top of B is between top of 3 and top of 5, what else do you want?

You have chart? I'm not sure what you mean by "add up - since the beginning".
I wonder if you are talking about the purple labels or if you are talking about the green labels somehow make an impulse

It's somewhere in this thread I think.
Basically
1: 32
2: 2
3: 266
4: 50
5: 1200

I ignored everything, except [5], (A), (B). Yeah I know that's makes you uncomfortable so even the originator of the chart made it look like it's not part of an overall trend with the round braces. This makes no sense, so...
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July 19, 2015, 09:53:53 AM
 #1782

It's obvious, to the point that it's largely ignored here because it doesn't resonate with the echo chamber.

You have been bearish about bitcoin on this forum since 2011. The reason your points are ignored is because they have proved repeatedly wrong!

Keep up the elliot wave Chessnut.

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July 19, 2015, 11:53:13 AM
 #1783

"Bearish" as in is refusing to participate in the circlejerk and making fun of it, yes.
Bearish as thinking the valuation will be going down, no.
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July 19, 2015, 05:10:46 PM
 #1784

I gave more thought to the scenario by RyNinDaCleM, according to which we are on the way to the top of THE wave B (or already peaked).
So far, my most probable wave B was in December 2013 - January 2014, from a bottom of 380$ top a top of 990$, so about 2.6x rise.
To take another one as THE wave B I'd like to see price go higher than 430$ (over 2.6x from the January bottom of 166$).
I find unlikely the next leg up (which seems still possible) to have an amplitude over 100$, because that's how much this market
allowed from very oversold to very overbought during the last couple of months. So I find unlikely for a wave B to reach over 380$,
while the real one should be close to the June 2014 top of 685$ (and the March top should have been around 450$).
OTOH squeezing a whole wave C in the time remaining to the block reward halving shouldn't be a problem if the market picks up speed. Wink
In such a case, with the same % drop as from 1175$ to 166$, we could end up with THE bottom around 50$.

A chart would help to illustrate all the above.

Found this on a different EW thread



It's obvious, to the point that it's largely ignored here because it doesn't resonate with the echo chamber.
spoiler: wave 1-5 also add up - since the beginning....

Whilst I don't discount the notion that we very well could be in a wave B of the overall downtrend, I do reject the idea that wave B would only reach ~$316 USD as retracement from an A that fell from ~$1100 to ~$155. The ratios just don't add up.

I don't disagree. It is possible market will go up as high as $ 400 or close if this is in fact a B of A. The chart shows estimates, not actual expected tops



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July 19, 2015, 05:36:13 PM
 #1785

Whilst I don't discount the notion that we very well could be in a wave B of the overall downtrend, I do reject the idea that wave B would only reach ~$316 USD as retracement from an A that fell from ~$1100 to ~$155. The ratios just don't add up.
Top of B is between top of 3 and top of 5, what else do you want?

You have chart? I'm not sure what you mean by "add up - since the beginning".
I wonder if you are talking about the purple labels or if you are talking about the green labels somehow make an impulse

It's somewhere in this thread I think.
Basically
1: 32
2: 2
3: 266
4: 50
5: 1200

I ignored everything, except [5], (A), (B).

Do you have any guesses for how deep C might be *if indeed it plays out?



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July 19, 2015, 05:55:39 PM
 #1786

Whilst I don't discount the notion that we very well could be in a wave B of the overall downtrend, I do reject the idea that wave B would only reach ~$316 USD as retracement from an A that fell from ~$1100 to ~$155. The ratios just don't add up.
Top of B is between top of 3 and top of 5, what else do you want?

I'd like to see at least a ~50% retrace in both length of time, and price of A. Time is *about* satisfied, but the price level isn't satisfactory to me. As we all know, the BTC market has a mind of its own, but I would definitely wait a bit longer before declaring a completion of B (if it even is a B  Tongue ).

"In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is king."
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July 19, 2015, 06:00:47 PM
 #1787

Whilst I don't discount the notion that we very well could be in a wave B of the overall downtrend, I do reject the idea that wave B would only reach ~$316 USD as retracement from an A that fell from ~$1100 to ~$155. The ratios just don't add up.
Top of B is between top of 3 and top of 5, what else do you want?

I'd like to see at least a ~50% retrace in both length of time, and price of A. Time is *about* satisfied, but the price level isn't satisfactory to me. As we all know, the BTC market has a mind of its own, but I would definitely wait a bit longer before declaring a completion of B (if it even is a B  Tongue ).

[ 1200 (top of wave 50) - 266 (top of wave 3) ] / 2 = $467 (~50%)



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July 19, 2015, 07:40:28 PM
 #1788

I really doubt that. Price went up because bitcoiners believed in grexit. It dropped when a solution showed up and it will fall more since a solution is there now. I dont see it going up now.

Though im not a pro trade.

I believe that the price went up speculatively because of the grexit, not because people were preparing to use it in greece or even try but because people finally had an incentive to learn thoroughly about it and that was an opportunity for wide spread publicity in a new light. You cannot un-do the publicity that bitcoin achieved in that period of time and the effects of that are yet to fully unfold. It's been said that the deal is not a solution to the problem and smart people are realising that the grexit is for now only postponed. Do you think they will choose to buy bitcoin before or after their bank accounts are frozen?

I think it mostly were bitcoiner, so traders, that believed in an effect of grexit. I mean we knew it worked with cyprus already and it worked with grexit again. I dont think greeks had a lot to do with that. More speculators in bitcoin area.

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July 19, 2015, 07:53:15 PM
 #1789

I really doubt that. Price went up because bitcoiners believed in grexit. It dropped when a solution showed up and it will fall more since a solution is there now. I dont see it going up now.

Though im not a pro trade.

I believe that the price went up speculatively because of the grexit, not because people were preparing to use it in greece or even try but because people finally had an incentive to learn thoroughly about it and that was an opportunity for wide spread publicity in a new light. You cannot un-do the publicity that bitcoin achieved in that period of time and the effects of that are yet to fully unfold. It's been said that the deal is not a solution to the problem and smart people are realising that the grexit is for now only postponed. Do you think they will choose to buy bitcoin before or after their bank accounts are frozen?

I think it mostly were bitcoiner, so traders, that believed in an effect of grexit. I mean we knew it worked with cyprus already and it worked with grexit again. I dont think greeks had a lot to do with that. More speculators in bitcoin area.

And the greeks have been brow-beaten kind enough to extend and pretend even further to test and see if bitcoin reacts in a similar fashion when they inevitably have another crisis. This next one has gotta have debt write-downs (finally) right?!




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July 20, 2015, 12:53:54 PM
 #1790

This is the same old plan in good form. looking to reach 2000 yuan again gradually this week.


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July 20, 2015, 01:57:56 PM
 #1791

This is the same old plan in good form. looking to reach 2000 yuan again gradually this week.



what makes you think so ?
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July 20, 2015, 02:11:15 PM
Last edit: July 20, 2015, 02:27:42 PM by chessnut
 #1792


what makes you think so ?

This is the same chain of logic as the larger count I have been tracking since 1500s. Locally, you easily identify that this is counter trend form, the larger degree being up.


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July 20, 2015, 02:26:17 PM
 #1793

"Bearish" as in is refusing to participate in the circlejerk and making fun of it, yes.
Bearish as thinking the valuation will be going down, no.

That is certainly a new definition of bearish you have concocted.
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July 20, 2015, 04:01:42 PM
 #1794

"Bearish" as in is refusing to participate in the circlejerk and making fun of it, yes.
Bearish as thinking the valuation will be going down, no.

That is certainly a new definition of bearish you have concocted.

Speak for yourself, bearish is concerned with valuation period.
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July 20, 2015, 04:35:44 PM
 #1795

"Bearish" as in is refusing to participate in the circlejerk and making fun of it, yes.
Bearish as thinking the valuation will be going down, no.

That is certainly a new definition of bearish you have concocted.

Speak for yourself, bearish is concerned with valuation period.

you think price will go up ? it has been a while since i saw a bullish post from you. i think it was october 2013....
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July 21, 2015, 06:07:01 AM
Last edit: July 21, 2015, 06:21:28 AM by ElectricMucus
 #1796

"Bearish" as in is refusing to participate in the circlejerk and making fun of it, yes.
Bearish as thinking the valuation will be going down, no.

That is certainly a new definition of bearish you have concocted.

Speak for yourself, bearish is concerned with valuation period.

you think price will go up ? it has been a while since i saw a bullish post from you. i think it was october 2013....

I think the valuation of Bitcoin is detached from it's fundamentals and it always has been that way. Nevertheless I still sometimes trade them and as such I am bullish at times, when I do that I just don't make a big deal about it because it's usually not that interesting.
I consider it gambling, more than anything else.

Do you have any guesses for how deep C might be *if indeed it plays out?

Sorry no, to be honest I don't trade on the basis of EW, but is it enough to say below wave 1 (32)? I'm mainly skeptical that EW can be used to do anything but describe past trends, just like what jstolfi did with his bubble on top of bubble matching chart.
Nevertheless I think curve fitting is an approach that has potential. It just should be something that doesn't allow for any random movement to be modeled so it retains predictive properties. 
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July 21, 2015, 06:56:40 AM
 #1797

"Bearish" as in is refusing to participate in the circlejerk and making fun of it, yes.
Bearish as thinking the valuation will be going down, no.

That is certainly a new definition of bearish you have concocted.

Speak for yourself, bearish is concerned with valuation period.

you think price will go up ? it has been a while since i saw a bullish post from you. i think it was october 2013....
Muck is way out there and won't be taken serious any time soon. I'm sorry for this so-called person - here is is - 4hr would be his fav - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcbtc
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July 21, 2015, 08:46:46 AM
 #1798

"Bearish" as in is refusing to participate in the circlejerk and making fun of it, yes.
Bearish as thinking the valuation will be going down, no.

That is certainly a new definition of bearish you have concocted.

Speak for yourself, bearish is concerned with valuation period.

you think price will go up ? it has been a while since i saw a bullish post from you. i think it was october 2013....

I think the valuation of Bitcoin is detached from it's fundamentals and it always has been that way. Nevertheless I still sometimes trade them and as such I am bullish at times, when I do that I just don't make a big deal about it because it's usually not that interesting.
I consider it gambling, more than anything else.

Do you have any guesses for how deep C might be *if indeed it plays out?

Sorry no, to be honest I don't trade on the basis of EW, but is it enough to say below wave 1 (32)? I'm mainly skeptical that EW can be used to do anything but describe past trends, just like what jstolfi did with his bubble on top of bubble matching chart.
Nevertheless I think curve fitting is an approach that has potential. It just should be something that doesn't allow for any random movement to be modeled so it retains predictive properties.  

The elliot wave theory and principle are largely based on the observation that market movement are based less on fundamentals than crowd psychology, the phenomena that most people draw more comfort believing in what others believe than believing more logical alternatives. This has rational and irrational impact on fundamentals that economists do not understand. however, price in a vacuum leaves only a few mechanisms to determine price action, and we find that the key emotions of fear and greed in a wave system (an equilibrium system) are irrational forces that always unfold in the same nature because of human psychology (which doesnt change). This way EW is more about how the market moves than predicting the future, and we realise that there may be multiple solutions to a real problem but they must be finite in context of robust logic.

EW analysis is not about trends, its about structure and key levels. Blind extrapolation implied in the term 'trend' is a fallacy in our analysis.

Simple harmonic ratios are found everywhere in nature, you cannot escape them they are necessary and robust and in concept they are perfectly defined. In this respect the EW theory cannot model random movement because truly random movement is not in simple harmonic terms (even so it may produce order in harmonic terms). The market is not random this is obvious and easy to prove, while it has weak sudo-random components. This is why the EW principle is composed of hard rules but also many guidelines because the market only presents confirmation of the principle in varying quality (but often good quality). maths provides us the principle where stats/evidence provides the theory. The theory is difficult to prove because it is a quantum system, scientists have battled providing evidence that an electron may be in two places at the same time for the same reason, but thats how it must be and thats how it is. Even so the theory put aside, the principle is enough for an effective trading strategy just as philosophers divide into camps of deontological and causational ethics, they are both valid and effective.


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July 21, 2015, 02:49:40 PM
 #1799

I think the valuation of Bitcoin is detached from it's fundamentals and it always has been that way. Nevertheless I still sometimes trade them and as such I am bullish at times, when I do that I just don't make a big deal about it because it's usually not that interesting.
I consider it gambling, more than anything else.

What do you trade then? Forex? On 1broker.com? I wanted to check out forex trading on 1broker but i didn't have the time for it. In case you do this, can you give me a tip on how to trade successfull?






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July 21, 2015, 03:29:36 PM
 #1800

This is the same old plan in good form. looking to reach 2000 yuan again gradually this week.


Do you trade those corrections that you yourself predict? (ie phase III to IV). I think this is what proves how much people that do technical analysis believe on their own TA. If you aren't buying on your own corrections then you'll have serious doubts about it. So will you sell from III to IV?
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