Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

OK. seems like b wave has terminated cerca 0.618 of a. a stop above the local top, 370, is an excellent risk reward opportunity for shorts. target 330.

[chessnut]

By the way we are reacting to these levels, an extended B wave here is not unlikely. this is what to watch for. the market is still short term bearish. EDIT: huobi has just strongly reacted to this level, I believe this is the current count. close shorts, sell higher up.

[kryptopojken]

By the way we are reacting to these levels, an extended B wave here is not unlikely. this is what to watch for. the market is still short term bearish.

Which B do you mean? The downwards in your last stamp chart? Sorry

[chessnut]

By the way we are reacting to these levels, an extended B wave here is not unlikely. this is what to watch for. the market is still short term bearish.

Which B do you mean? The downwards in your last stamp chart? Sorry

There is only one B in the above chart, not b. I think we are going to 375.

[chessnut]

would be risky to trade the upswing it seems, apart from huobi, no other exchange has given such confirmation. the trade we are ultimately looking toward is buy at 430.

[kryptopojken]

By the way we are reacting to these levels, an extended B wave here is not unlikely. this is what to watch for. the market is still short term bearish.

Which B do you mean? The downwards in your last stamp chart? Sorry

There is only one B in the above chart, not b. I think we are going to 375.

okay thanks!

[chessnut]

and sorry for the confusion - the upside swing is invalidated if huobi passes under 2180.... seems to be threatening now. bigger pictre has not changed, we want to be in the 310-330 range.

[eboard10]

The initial point of this post was to identify levels of confirmation of wave C termination. Today I am fairly confident on the smaller scale that wave C is not complete. Here is the current preferred count.

Hi chessnut, I have the same count in mind. Since Wave III is extended we could see Wave 5 = 1 and be looking at a truncated 5th that would end the downtrend, at least in the short term. 

For Wave 4, the 78% retracement of Wave A is right at 300 so I guess we will be testing that support. If we break it, it's likely we are still in Wave III.

[chessnut]

The initial point of this post was to identify levels of confirmation of wave C termination. Today I am fairly confident on the smaller scale that wave C is not complete. Here is the current preferred count.

Hi chessnut, I have the same count in mind. Since Wave III is extended we could see Wave 5 = 1 and be looking at a truncated 5th that would end the downtrend, at least in the short term. 

For Wave 4, the 78% retracement of Wave A is right at 300 so I guess we will be testing that support. If we break it, it's likely we are still in Wave III.

Hey eboard10,

I have had that idea myself. It is certainly possible, although I think best just to wait and see. wave V will be readable as it comes.

I agree that we need a deeper retracement of wave A, I would only expect 0.618, 320 or so seems fair. At this rate it looks like it will take a long time. If we break 300, I dont think that means we are still in wave III, only a break of 275 would have me guessing, but it would be either wave III or wave V, equally unlikely imo.

Thanks for your comments.

[chessnut]

China and the west are playing a different game. I think we should not try to play the retracment down, rather just buy when it gets there. a break above 390 highs or 2350 in china would mean wave C has begun. while I firmly believe we need more retracement, I will be tracking impulsive counts in this case.

[Raystonn]

Sorry, is this C wave you speak of a wave up or down?

[chessnut]

Sorry, is this C wave you speak of a wave up or down?

Speaking in fractals, both. there needs to terminate a minor c wave of B before we can begin wave C major. minor wave c might be done sooner and shallower than I expect. the major C wave should take us to 450.

[chessnut]

Not a good idea to be short at the moment, we have broken some short term trend lines that suggest range bound/upside behaviour to come. lets wait and see what the market reveals.

[chessnut]

for the risk tolerant this is a bullish breakout good for buying. Some potential not yet confirmed that C wave has begun.

[MatTheCat]

Not a good idea to be short at the moment, we have broken some short term trend lines that suggest range bound/upside behaviour to come. lets wait and see what the market reveals.

You would have to be insane to be short after the pounding the market has taken and the still yet rather meagre bounce.....

.....but that doesn't mean that it is clever to be long....... Only good reason to go long would be if I was convinced that there were going to be a big pile of longs chomping at the bit to get in at prices above 360. I am not convinced that this would be the case at all. Quite the opposite infact. I would imagine that much of the stupid impulsive dumb money (like myself) has been shaken out of the market and only the poker players remain. Only those remain, who arehappy to buy at the bottom and only to buy at the bottom.......the short supply of fools still in the market (bag holders not included) will ensure a reluctance in the market to find a decent top. The whales with the clout to manipulate the market will realise this as the market fails to react to their bait. It may take a while but the dumping shall recommence.


I suggest stagnation of the market and either an X-Factor kicks in instigating buying power or normal service resumes, with Bitcoin finding it's sustainable post Willy & Markus bot market value, at values way lower than 360.

[Barney]

By the way we are reacting to these levels, an extended B wave here is not unlikely. this is what to watch for. the market is still short term bearish. EDIT: huobi has just strongly reacted to this level, I believe this is the current count. close shorts, sell higher up.

Looks like could be this scenario?

[kryptopojken]

Any chance of a bounce down from here?

[Afrikoin]

Triangle bullish breakout. Up then down for the C it seems

[CryptoCarmen]

Triangle bullish breakout. Up then down for the C it seems

Agree it is going up to fast to be opposite.

[chessnut]

Triangle bullish breakout. Up then down for the C it seems

The west completed a triangle but not china. We have carved an impulsive wave to the upside. I would wait for a retrace before buying into this. I am looking for more confirmation that C wave has begun. C wave will go up, not down. c wave should have gone deeper, but it seems it may be over. that would make the retrace of wave B 0.382, an acceptable retrace.