Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

You are nearly the only one to post in this thread, but keep going, your posts are read and appreciated.

Lots of people are lurking

Like me

I think he is quite impatient. Sometimes one needs to just wait and see how the pattern unfolds.

I track many time frames, and I have had good success with scalping. there's a reason why I might label any given trade as high risk or not, like the last one. It up to you to decide if you want to take it or wait for clearer set ups.

[chessnut]

The current price action is evidence that we are in wave B of IV. This means we can look ahead to a buy opportunity to trade wave C up to 450+. This will most likely come at a lower price than we are at. Trading swings of wave B is not advisable unless a convincing opportunity presents its self.

[RoadTrain]

I'm subscribing to this excellent thread.

[chessnut]

there are two likely forecasts for this situation. Most likely (white count) is that we will play out b and then c of B before C. this will be boring risky and stressful to trade, better just get some sleep than to get whip-sawed.

Second possibility is that we form an upwards impulse wave i (I'd want this to be cristal clear) meaning that wave B is complete (looking a bit small and shallow) and we would be trending towards 450.

[chessnut]

we have broken out of the illustrated triangle on OKcoin and the chinese exchanges are behaving impulsively. I would look for a much larger impulse to conclude that wave C had begun, but this is incentive to proactively trade the breakout of the triangle. I am long with a stop loss at 2320, looking for a top around 2400. buying in the 233x range is an acceptable risk reward ratio with target 2400 and stop 2320.

[chessnut]

[BldSwtTrs]

the chinese exchanges are behaving impulsively.

What does that mean to behave impulsively? What are you watching to conclude that, volume, volatility?

[chessnut]

the chinese exchanges are behaving impulsively.

What does that mean to behave impulsively? What are you watching to conclude that, volume, volatility?

Impulsive waves have fibonacci retracements of 2/3 while corrective movements have fibonacci retracements of 1/2. In other words, impulsive wave system have three legs/waves to the upside and two to the downside and vice versa, while corrective has two legs/waves to the upside and one to the downside and vice versa.

The more waves that unfold in a system, the more energy/force is required to create those waves. This is why Impulses are often related to significant changes in market fundamentals or crowd psychology which have a significant impact on price/value. However corrective or zig zag behaviour is closer related to conditions where equilibrium is met and there is no net force applied to the market.

[chessnut]

a larger abc fractal is unfolding. This changes our stop loss tolerance to 2315. The price action is still very bullish.

[eboard10]

there are two likely forecasts for this situation. Most likely (white count) is that we will play out b and then c of B before C. this will be boring risky and stressful to trade, better just get some sleep than to get whip-sawed.

Second possibility is that we form an upwards impulse wave i (I'd want this to be cristal clear) meaning that wave B is complete (looking a bit small and shallow) and we would be trending towards 450.

In volatile markets such as cryptocurrency corrective movements can easily have retracements of 61% or 78% so I wouldn't discount the possibility of a wave B of IV topping at even $400-405.

[kryptopojken]

there are two likely forecasts for this situation. Most likely (white count) is that we will play out b and then c of B before C. this will be boring risky and stressful to trade, better just get some sleep than to get whip-sawed.

Second possibility is that we form an upwards impulse wave i (I'd want this to be cristal clear) meaning that wave B is complete (looking a bit small and shallow) and we would be trending towards 450.

how will you know which of the counts to go with now that we've reached the 390ish target?

[chessnut]

In volatile markets such as cryptocurrency corrective movements can easily have retracements of 61% or 78% so I wouldn't discount the possibility of a wave B of IV topping at even $400-405.

 
Edit - sorry misread that for a moment. +1

[chessnut]

how will you know which of the counts to go with now that we've reached the 390ish target?

We will have to wait and see how it unfolds, there are many clues to look for. It is totally up to you if you want to hold your long and move up your stoploss or take an easy profit.

[kryptopojken]

how will you know which of the counts to go with now that we've reached the 390ish target?

We will have to wait and see how it unfolds, there are many clues to look for. It is totally up to you if you want to hold your long and move up your stoploss or take an easy profit.

thanks Chessnut

[chessnut]

This is likely how an impulse would unfold here

[chessnut]

This seems to be a local top. two things are likely to unfold from here, both downwards. We are looking for an abc wave II to turn bullish down at around 2350, but it may continue all the way down and some more (2100-2200) to complete wave c of B, and then we can turn very bullish.

Yes, this is a good risk reward shorting opportunity with a stop above local highs, but have you ever met the honey badger? I have 

[fonzie]

Thanks chessnut for sharing your thoughts and analysis, i really enjoy it, especially the fact that you are also using shorter timeframes. Would you mind to share which exchange you use for trading?

[chessnut]

Thanks chessnut for sharing your thoughts and analysis, i really enjoy it, especially the fact that you are also using shorter timeframes. Would you mind to share which exchange you use for trading?

Hey Fonzie,

Im glad you enjoy it 

I use Okcoin, and I'll never go back to bfx.

[fonzie]

Thanks chessnut for sharing your thoughts and analysis, i really enjoy it, especially the fact that you are also using shorter timeframes. Would you mind to share which exchange you use for trading?

Hey Fonzie,

Im glad you enjoy it  

I use Okcoin, and I'll never go back to bfx.

Same here  
I mainly use future trading, their performance, liquidity and low or non existent fees(maker/taker) are superior if you´re into daytrading.

[chessnut]

This impulsive price action is worth keeping an eye on. I have closed my short and I am looking for further evidence that wave C has begun. If we pass local highs, 2430 or so, that could mean we likely have wave iii coming our way (iii of C). Unfortunately wave ii was shallower than one would expect, slim profits for shorters. If we break out aggressively look to buy on a dip, stop loss 2391.