Critical Levels - EW analysis

[Cryptoalerts.net]

What happens after we hit the big C, we go to the moon ?

Not immediately but the trend will change to the upside.

Yet, there is a different count where Wave A from chessnut's graph is actually Wave C and has B as an X-wave which means we're currently in Wave A of an extended correction which would take us well into 2015, something similar to this: https://www.tradingview.com/v/42UOcWtJ.

It's too early to tell though. We'll have to wait for the present downtrend to end and pay close attention to how the subsequent upside move plays out.

Such a IV wave would be too extended to be plausible, but its possible.

@chessnut

We thought it would be better to post here so we can have a direct exchange of approaches. Although, we do not apply EW, it would be nice to compare our entry and exit trade setups.

In relation to your latest wave analysis on BTC China, what trade setup could you suggest? For example, what price shall trigger a short trade setup / keep a trader short / up to what possible lower target, with what given odds?

...and the inverse: if prices strengthen, what is the price level that will trigger a "buy" setup?

In the simplest terms, right now prices have rolled over once again, but this time, have been denied by a triple resistance: the 50MA, the 200MA and just recently the 100MA. All these resistance levels have to be breached to the upside with strong conviction. Otherwise prices will remain weak and possible begin to decline further from here.

https://i.imgur.com/vqjoOfm.jpg

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong break above ¥2363 – Price Target ¥2466 | Probability: 25%
Neutral: Price Range ¥2330-¥2360 | Probability: 45%
Short: On a strong break below ¥2314 – Price Target ¥2258 | Probability: 30%

[chessnut]

Cryptoalerts,

I'd be glad to offer my view.

A simple tool with EW to tell when we are accelerating upward is when the initial trend line defined by the II, B or x wave is broken.



This would be a sign of upward strength.

With EW however sometimes price behaviour is more important than levels. We like to watch price approaching critical levels, and if it behaves how we like then we pounce.

At the moment the forecast is a B wave which has been playing out as we expect, choppy, stagnant, unfriendly trading conditions. This will likely continue until a healthy fib retracement of wave A is complete or a significant amount of extra time sideways in a contracting triangle.



I am confident that we are slowly trending to low 2200s before a medium term reversal will take us much higher, perhaps to around 3000 yuan. We would need to see evidence impulsive behaviour before betting long however.

[chessnut]

We have broken the trend defining hypothetical wave c of B. Having not retraced a healthy fib level this leaves us with the other likely option that wave B is a triangle. when we break out of this triangle, it will be a strong signal to look to go long. I will be tracking the impulses in order to buy the dips.

When confirmed, the turn of wave B will likely mark the beginning of an exciting bull run wave C to around 3000 yuan.

[chessnut]

This wave down could be wave e of the triangle as I have illustrated above, or it could be a continuation of wave minor c. In other words, it is still not best to trade this until we have evidence of wave major C.

Another EW analyst pointed out to me some counts accross other exchanges that suggest we are still in wave c. could be right. As I have said many times, wave B was always going to be choppy and likely unclear. We must wait patiently for hard evidence that wave C is under way.

[eboard10]

This wave down could be wave e of the triangle as I have illustrated above, or it could be a continuation of wave minor c. In other words, it is still not best to trade this until we have evidence of wave major C.

Another EW analyst pointed out to me some counts accross other exchanges that suggest we are still in wave c. could be right. As I have said many times, wave B was always going to be choppy and likely unclear. We must wait patiently for hard evidence that wave C is under way.

Yes, I'm also of the opinion that we're still in wave c of B. In the count you show above, wave C would have little room to move to the upside as wave 4 shouldn't retrace more than 50% of wave 3. Also, wave C should be at least as long as A and that would be close to impossible in this scenario. Just my thought though.

[chessnut]

This wave down could be wave e of the triangle as I have illustrated above, or it could be a continuation of wave minor c. In other words, it is still not best to trade this until we have evidence of wave major C.

Another EW analyst pointed out to me some counts accross other exchanges that suggest we are still in wave c. could be right. As I have said many times, wave B was always going to be choppy and likely unclear. We must wait patiently for hard evidence that wave C is under way.

Yes, I'm also of the opinion that we're still in wave c of B. In the count you show above, wave C would have little room to move to the upside as wave 4 shouldn't retrace more than 50% of wave 3. Also, wave C should be at least as long as A and that would be close to impossible in this scenario. Just my thought though.

I think those are all good points. The 50% fib is right in the middle of wave iv(III) so that's what I have been expecting.

[chessnut]

Remember all that we do not have a trade until we have evidence and a good strategy. There have been a few set-ups on this thread where price action has failed to meet EW criteria and yet move in the direction of our trade. This is not a good signal at all.

Predictable waves that we can read and profit from are usually caused when the crowd becomes irrational and makes a mistake. We dont know very well when they are going to do that, but we can see it when they do. We must be patient and yet be there to pounce on the good trades. This is terribly hard to do, especially when one is in the habbit of winning. Trading is brutal that is all I can say.

[lunarboy]

 watching an interesting thread   

[chessnut]

We have broken through the 2320 level, invalidating the triangle. a c wave flat correction will continue likely bottoming on the 0.318 or 0.5 fib (2165 or 2250) as originally expected. This is really a good thing for bulls because we will be offered great risk reward buy opportunity at a lower price soon. I cant advise shorting this breakout but if you have your own strategy for trading then I can at least say we should be going down.

[chessnut]

Yesterday when I said the triangle was invalidated I think it was by a matter of one or two yuan. The price has bounced from that level. I dare say the triangle is still a possibility, but as always we need evidence of impulsive before we take any action.

[chessnut]

we should expect this to reach 2160 an at least 2240. those are profit targets, not buy targets.

[chessnut]

We have had an impulse to the downside, the body of it has come and gone. We need a wave v to complete the move down. 2180 looks like a fair level for the bottom.

This is what I am expecting. We might have a good buy signal at the very bottom for dare devils by the way this is unfolding.

[chessnut]

We have seen the worst of it, possibly the bottom. We have an impulsive wave that hit our expected target at 2160 (2158 Huobi) the 0.5 fib and seems complete. Now the search begins for an impulsive wave upwards, or a conclusive termination of the downwards impulse. We will likely have  great buy opportunity in the next 48 hours. We are very currently close to at least a daily local bottom.

[madmat]

We have had an impulse to the downside, the body of it has come and gone. We need a wave v to complete the move down. 2180 looks like a fair level for the bottom.

This is what I am expecting. We might have a good buy signal at the very bottom for dare devils by the way this is unfolding.

Your prevision was very good, but i failed at trading it. I sold at 292€, and placed a buy order at 288€ with a stop loss at 295. The stop loss was too low, so it triggered before the price went down. 

I will keep trying to take profit of your good previsions. Thanks again for your thread.

[chessnut]

madmat, trading is tough. I dont know what your strategy was or even if you made a genuine mistake, we all lose sometimes. I didnt give any conclusive trade for wave c(B) because I knew this would be a tricky bugger to ride down, one needs to be active and adaptive to ride it. There will likely be a higher confidence trade coming, this time I can offer robust levels to set stop losses and a bigger picture.

Best of luck and thanks for your comments.

[kryptopojken]

Not sure if he's trolling but he said he trades with 0.1btc

[chessnut]

It is too early for any conclusions, but this action is impulsive. As I cannot yet be sure if we have fully completed the impulsive down It could be part of an abc or a primary wave. Here are some critical levels I am watching, very bullish if both broken. These are NOT breakout trade set ups. We want more evidence for a killer setup.

[madmat]

Not sure if he's trolling but he said he trades with 0.1btc

Yes, i trade with 0.1btc. What's your point ?

This is to learn. My strategy is buy and hold, because i believe bitcoin will succeed. So, i trade with 0.1btc, it is a game for me, i can't win money, but i can't lose, and this is what is important.

[karol]

It is too early for any conclusions, but this action is impulsive. As I cannot yet be sure if we have fully completed the impulsive down It could be part of an abc or a primary wave. Here are some critical levels I am watching, very bullish if both broken. These are NOT breakout trade set ups. We want more evidence for a killer setup.

Hi,

In my opinion 2213 was top of correction of down trend from 2300.
Now we will go down to 2000 which seems to be stronger than 2160. Then we will got triangle there and then up.

[kryptopojken]

Not sure if he's trolling but he said he trades with 0.1btc

Yes, i trade with 0.1btc. What's your point ?

This is to learn. My strategy is buy and hold, because i believe bitcoin will succeed. So, i trade with 0.1btc, it is a game for me, i can't win money, but i can't lose, and this is what is important.

nevermind, good luck