Critical Levels - EW analysis

[sidhujag]

in hindsight to your first few posts you seem to be getting it wrong every time... I would keep trying but I think EW analysis is flawed unless you add in other external factors.

[chessnut]

in hindsight to your first few posts you seem to be getting it wrong every time... I would keep trying but I think EW analysis is flawed unless you add in other external factors.

You need to look closer and read more carefully. I have been having much success.

[chessnut]

We have a signal. This count is not perfect, we have a slightly diminished wave v, but I think it is a good signal because we have bounced off the 0.618 fib and completed a satisfying abc correction, motion downwards is not impulsive. This entails that even if the upward count is an abc we will likely see upwards movement before more downside. The stoploss levels for this trade are well defined and great risk reward, 2165 in china, and for the west I would place my stop at around 350 under those hammers.

While risk reward is excellent at current levels, the risk of failure is always greater in early stages of the trend because we have less evidence. We will have more signals to add positions as the trend begins. Dont risk it all on this position.

[Raystonn]

What is your target range for this trade?

[Coinshot]

We have a signal. This count is not perfect, we have a slightly diminished wave v, but I think it is a good signal because we have bounced off the 0.618 fib and completed a satisfying abc correction, motion downwards is not impulsive. This entails that even if the upward count is an abc we will likely see upwards movement before more downside. The stoploss levels for this trade are well defined and great risk reward, 2165 in china, and for the west I would place my stop at around 350 under those hammers.

While risk reward is excellent at current levels, the risk of failure is always greater in early stages of the trend because we have less evidence. We will have more signals to add positions as the trend begins. Dont risk it all on this position.

You mean in the short term there is a greater chance of going up, but for the medium term going down to mid 2xx is still possible.

Whats your target for this short term upside?

[chessnut]

You mean in the short term there is a greater chance of going up, but for the medium term going down to mid 2xx is still possible.

Whats your target for this short term upside?

I am speaking of many time scales. The point of this thread was to determine if 2xx was probable, we now have evidence to suggest it is probable. I would encourage all to prepare for mid 200s.

what I am saying for this trade, where we expect a wave C rally to around $460, or 3000 yuan, is that although wave C might not have begun we can still expect more retracement of the last down leg upwards. My target is 3000 yuan! but I may have to let go of my position if this presents any evidence wave C has not begun. this will probably happen now or at around 2240 if it happens at all.

[chessnut]

The price action to the down side here is not consistent with a valid wave v count, we will likely bounce at the 2165 level. However the price action is evidence that this is not the primary and we should fall back on our wave v count. I will be looking to buy lower. We should be able to close the trade out at minimal loss and perhaps a small profit before it comes.

[sidhujag]

in hindsight to your first few posts you seem to be getting it wrong every time... I would keep trying but I think EW analysis is flawed unless you add in other external factors.

You need to look closer and read more carefully. I have been having much success.

ok i promise to look again

[chessnut]

in hindsight to your first few posts you seem to be getting it wrong every time... I would keep trying but I think EW analysis is flawed unless you add in other external factors.

You need to look closer and read more carefully. I have been having much success.

ok i promise to look again

the trade is a swing from this level to 3000 yuan. come back in two weeks and stop pestering me.

[chessnut]

As we have made new lows here the new level to break entailing wave C has begun is 2230.

[chessnut]

This selling is fairly hard but the bigger picture is still very clear. this wave (v) of c of B might take us down to around 2060. very unlikely to go much further. Targeting th 0.618 fib now, a common retrace.

[JustAnotherSheep]

Am I doing it right?



Hourly MACD divergence at least seems to support a bottom at 341. Plus the rise from there looks impulsive so far to me.
But I'm just a noobish sheep, so please correct me if I'm wrong!

[chessnut]

Am I doing it right?



Hourly MACD divergence at least seems to support a bottom at 341. Plus the rise from there looks impulsive so far to me.
But I'm just a noobish sheep, so please correct me if I'm wrong!

Between ii and iii is a zig zag, it would have to be a fiver. unfortunately it is not yet looking like an impulsive count.

however, the larger impulsive count down seems terminated, so we are looking for an impulsive wave up. we had also some significant buy volume on the rally.

critical levels..... break of 2185 ((i)) of (iii) of v, and 2219, wave iv. These are not breakout trade setups, rather reasons to look for going long if we dont get a clear impulsive - Trading the bigger picture.

Using indicators like MACD, RSI, STOCH.... all good to use to trade at this bottom. I cannot give a strategy for this, only suggest your stop loss is by local lows.

[chessnut]

After flat behaviour the price action has given us bullish signals.
Considering the larger picture, we need to consider that the last rally up may be impulsive however technically the dominant count is a corrective abc.
What we have is non impulsive behaviour to the downside, suggesting wave b or ii. therefore what will follow is c or iii upwards.
Buying here would be fairly high risk but great reward ratio (like all my trades), especially considering the medium term potential from this point.

We should remain cautiously prepared for lower lows however from this point on they will be very limited by the larger picture. I am still confident with the larger count along side many other EW analysts.




This is the most bearish case for wave C. it is a valid count so maybe it is what we should expect.

[chessnut]

moving stoplosses up to breakeven is wise here.

[chessnut]

Watching the levels carefully, remember 2216 is the level that will confirm wave c has begun.

[chessnut]

This is looking quite bullish. it is a lot sharper and taller than a hypothetical wave c of iv or triangle. if it were a wave c, this would be iii of c, leaving very little space for wave v before breaking critical resistance. soon we might be in a state of searching for an optimum long entry for wave C. Dont panic, there will be plenty of dips along the way.

[chessnut]

I am getting some confirmation from other EW analysts that wave C has begun. looking long now.

This is the first plan of attack for aggressive traders. keep your stop loss under the primary trend line and buy any significant dip that offers favorable risk reward (up to you how much risk you want to take, the potential target is sky high). Use a momentum indicator like macd to enter.
again no need to panic, lots of dips to come. save some margin for later.

[chessnut]

This is a good shot at taking a long. the dip is behaving naturally and correctively. keep that stop just under the primary trend line.

[chessnut]

I expect at least another leg up from this point to satisfy bull and bear counts. we are approaching a cross road. If we see weakness in the 2200-2216 area we should move our stops to break even or close out at profit. If we break the trendline we should look to close at small loss and re evaluate but I am not expecting this.