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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1648427 times)
buddhacoiner
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April 08, 2013, 04:55:49 PM
 #19321



You know this for sure because?

Don't get me wrong, I am all for the idea behind bitcoins, but this recent price run up is definitely not due to practical implementation of bitcoin for real world uses. The price is increasing because people have been reading news stories about how a bunch of people became millionaires from investing in bitcoins and they want to do the same. Bitcoins true value as a decentralized currency has been pushed to the side. If there weren't so many people going crazy over the price bitcoin it could achieve a more natural growth.

Bitcoin cannot be compared to any other commodity at this point.  We are in uncharted territory.  Expect this kind of volatility going forward.  These rapid up and down swings are 'normal' for bitcoin and they will continue throughout bitoin's rise.  Over time, these '$20 within 1/2 hour micro swings' will merely be little blips on the steady (seemingly steep) upward macro trend
and you know this how?


i heard tings

i dunno:

1. bitcoin characteristics....limited supply, infancy stage, etc., growing community, media coverage, business adoption, ATM builds, etcetc
2. look at the chart curve for the last 30 days, 90 days, 6 months....zoom in and out
3. speculation with the promising novel
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1480740648
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Richy_T
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April 08, 2013, 04:56:06 PM
 #19322

Bitcoinity roller coaster!

Haha. Perfect. Just what I was thinking of.

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chrsjrcj
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April 08, 2013, 04:56:13 PM
 #19323

Is it really that hard to solve this fucking lag problem? Angry

Just wait until they add Litecoin.

BitcoinTate
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April 08, 2013, 04:57:24 PM
 #19324


Lmao! Bear's be crazy!

- aka The "DigiMan"
ManBearPig
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April 08, 2013, 04:58:09 PM
 #19325

Experience and testicular fortitude serve one well in a situation like this.

The DDoS cartel just took 23c from the weak hands.

Would someone let the Teddies back in the room now and give them back their Bitcoins?

I tweet crypto nonsense: https://twitter.com/DunningKruger_
mccorvic
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April 08, 2013, 05:00:08 PM
 #19326

There is one thing about these high lag dump then rebound scenarios I enjoy:  Seeing the bad bears who are about 30 mins too late and they dump right into a huge rally.  Too slow, ya jergoff.

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deeplink
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April 08, 2013, 05:00:18 PM
 #19327

Max Keiser is a shill lying twit that's pumping promises so he can line his pockets a little better at your expense. Stop being naive. Anyone with $10bn doesn't need to be circled by a twit on a propaganda news network.

If you say so... Thanks for teaching me this stuff  Roll Eyes
chriswilmer
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April 08, 2013, 05:02:16 PM
 #19328

Hey, I have a naive question about this whole DDOS thing. Would it help if Mt. Gox doubled (or x10) the number of servers they have? Even an extra 100 machines can't be that expensive (probably ~$200 K).
adamstgBit
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April 08, 2013, 05:04:54 PM
 #19329

Hey, I have a naive question about this whole DDOS thing. Would it help if Mt. Gox doubled (or x10) the number of servers they have? Even an extra 100 machines can't be that expensive (probably ~$200 K).

1/4 million = not expensive, lol!

humanitee
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April 08, 2013, 05:05:11 PM
 #19330

Hey, I have a naive question about this whole DDOS thing. Would it help if Mt. Gox doubled (or x10) the number of servers they have? Even an extra 100 machines can't be that expensive (probably ~$200 K).

My understanding is that the engine is written with the competency of an undergraduate CS student.
No amount of hardware improvements can fix errors associated with bad coding practices. The gain would be measly.
mccorvic
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April 08, 2013, 05:05:52 PM
 #19331

Hey, I have a naive question about this whole DDOS thing. Would it help if Mt. Gox doubled (or x10) the number of servers they have? Even an extra 100 machines can't be that expensive (probably ~$200 K).

Well, I don't think adding any X number of machines would help with a DDOS as the line would still just be as clogged.

But it doesn't matter as the DDoS excuse is just MtGox trying to cover for it's failure to have a decent database.

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buddhacoiner
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April 08, 2013, 05:05:59 PM
 #19332

What? Bitcoin-24 at $240 ?!


...1 coin

btce  $166
mp420
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April 08, 2013, 05:08:32 PM
 #19333

Hey, I have a naive question about this whole DDOS thing. Would it help if Mt. Gox doubled (or x10) the number of servers they have? Even an extra 100 machines can't be that expensive (probably ~$200 K).

Won't work. The trades must be executed sequentially, that can't be parallelized much. The lag is not about the DDOS, it's mostly about the trading.

Their trading engine is implemented poorly. They have enough hardware but their engine just doesn't cut it. They should hire a team of $300k+/year programmers with extensive experience about these kinds of high performance financial systems and get them to rewrite their trading engine.
BitcoinTate
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April 08, 2013, 05:10:10 PM
 #19334

Hey, I have a naive question about this whole DDOS thing. Would it help if Mt. Gox doubled (or x10) the number of servers they have? Even an extra 100 machines can't be that expensive (probably ~$200 K).

Won't work. The trades must be executed sequentially, that can't be parallelized much. The lag is not about the DDOS, it's mostly about the trading.

Their trading engine is implemented poorly. They have enough hardware but their engine just doesn't cut it. They should hire a team of $300k+/year programmers with extensive experience about these kinds of high performance financial systems and get them to rewrite their trading engine.
Perhaps adding Solid State server drives might help though.

- aka The "DigiMan"
thezerg
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April 08, 2013, 05:10:17 PM
 #19335

Damn. We crashed all the way down to 85% above the price a week ago today  Grin
LOL! +1 !  Grin

yes, for all you newbies looking at this and the "crash" the media reported last week, think about trying to trade this.  For example, you could sell at the ATH, and keep the money in USD with a bid trailing the ATH by (say) 10%.  But if you do that, you miss the normal weekly runup, in this case from $140.  So this catch-the-dip strategy nets you half the profit as buy-and-hold.  But the risk profile of fiat-on-exchange is pretty similar to btc-on-exchange so the risk reduction is not worth the profitability loss.  And traders can't reliably react to a dump (sell then buy) due to the lag.

Of course, people can use their intuition and knowledge of fiat bank transfers to make informed guesses and narrowing this profitability gap.  But that is hard and ultimately devolves into guesswork rather then a strategy.

tl;dr; these dips happen because its more profitable to buy-and-hold then to sell-early-to-fiat-and-catch-the-dip.

samson
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April 08, 2013, 05:11:10 PM
 #19336

Hey, I have a naive question about this whole DDOS thing. Would it help if Mt. Gox doubled (or x10) the number of servers they have? Even an extra 100 machines can't be that expensive (probably ~$200 K).

Won't work. The trades must be executed sequentially, that can't be parallelized much. The lag is not about the DDOS, it's mostly about the trading.

Their trading engine is implemented poorly. They have enough hardware but their engine just doesn't cut it. They should hire a team of $300k+/year programmers with extensive experience about these kinds of high performance financial systems and get them to rewrite their trading engine.

Maybe they should hire the guy who won the 'quantcup' matching engine competition.
mccorvic
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April 08, 2013, 05:13:33 PM
 #19337

yes, for all you newbies looking at this and the "crash" the media reported last week, think about trying to trade this.  For example, you could sell at the ATH, and keep the money in USD with a bid trailing the ATH by (say) 10%.  But if you do that, you miss the normal weekly runup, in this case from $140.  So this catch-the-dip strategy nets you half the profit as buy-and-hold.  But the risk profile of fiat-on-exchange is pretty similar to btc-on-exchange so the risk reduction is not worth the profitability loss.  And traders can't reliably react to a dump (sell then buy) due to the lag.

This should be printed on cards and issued to all newbies. Cheesy

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Spaceman_Spiff
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April 08, 2013, 05:15:23 PM
 #19338

crap, missed the dip.  Stupid work    Roll Eyes

EDIT: double crap, I had $240 sell orders at bitcoin24, none went through.  Should have put it a dollar lower  Smiley .
mccorvic
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April 08, 2013, 05:17:47 PM
 #19339

crap, missed the dip.  Stupid work    Roll Eyes

We're still in the dip, so not too late

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BitcoinTate
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April 08, 2013, 05:18:29 PM
 #19340

This dip was not nearly as much as I expected. Is it that A ) People are getting smarter and not messing around when Gox starts lagging, or B) We could see a double dip later today or tomorrow before jumping back on the BTC rocket to $300 next week?

- aka The "DigiMan"
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