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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1650033 times)
arruah
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February 04, 2013, 10:34:12 AM
 #9421


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ElectricMucus
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February 04, 2013, 10:38:48 AM
 #9422

I don't see ask-side walls as anything but an attempt to lower the price to buy more bitcoins later....

at least as long as bitcoins aren't shortable.

Why else would you do such a thing?

If somebody thinks the price is "good enough".
Fraudulently obtained BTC in which case the price isn't that important since they were more or less free.
Somebody needing to spend BTC for USD in the case of payment processing with merchants. (This is pretty much the case with the whole bitpay and SR business and Avalon/BFL)

well, you wouldn't scare off buyers by placing that huge of a wall.  preferably, you'd set a buy wall far enough back where it wouldnt be hit, then sell gradually as bids build in...    or if you don't have the funds to do the buy wall, set smaller walls incrementally, or just do market sells every few hrs, as bids build in

if it was fradulently obtained BTC, i'd think they'd be perfectly happy just to do a market sell, and drop it down to $18.50 or so.

ed:  with depth so easily visible to the public and no way to sell short (maybe I'm mistaken here?), it just doesnt make sense to make a $400,000 wall on the ask side. 



Even with the very healthy bid side, dumping such an amount of coins would still yield a significant spread. Part of the game is also to sell higher than everybody else does, which doesn't necessarily mean that they gonna buy back. Creating a wall is one of the easiest ways to archive that.

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February 04, 2013, 10:45:11 AM
 #9423



Ahh throwbacks! I like this guy, had me check.


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zvs
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February 04, 2013, 10:46:07 AM
 #9424

I don't see ask-side walls as anything but an attempt to lower the price to buy more bitcoins later....
Why else would you do such a thing?

There are at least two more plausible explanations:

2. Someone considers bitcoins overvalued at 21.00 and is willing to part with 25K of his holdings at this price point.  He announces this intention publicly to see if there is anyone with an opposite market view willing to be a counter-party for this transaction. Why does not he just sell it all in small portions? Well, in a thinly traded instruments such as BTCUSD it is just impossible. You cannot easily exit big positions without driving the price down quite a bit.

3. A long-term BTC holder is concerned about another short-term bubble-and-burst pattern forming. So he sends a message to whomever pumps the price up to be more careful about it. Once the people see that a lot of bitcoins are available for sale at a specific price point, they'd be less likely to fall for bubble-inducing propaganda such as: "OMG, this is the last change to buy BTC below XX.XX!"

I still think that your initial explanation is right though. Most likely, this is just a phantom scare-wall that's going to disappear once the price gets close to it. But we're not going to find out for sure until someone actually tries to buy into this wall.  
With #2, the best thing to do would be to split the ask between several exchanges, but I suppose an explanation for that would be that the buyer just doesn't trust any other exchange.

Ahh... yeah, #3 inparticular crossed my mind after I posted.  If I had a large stake in bitcoins, I might be a bit concerned about two previous run-ups that then resulted in a dramatic collapse.... though, if the price were to reach my $21 wall and start eating a decent sized chunk out of it, I'd still either remove it or move it back a 'safe distance' (or *possibly* if the bids were especially weak, I may consider doing something like a market sell of 500 of those BTC, in hopes of causing a mini-panic in order to buy back at a lower price, doesn't look like it'd be too rough to collapse it to 20.12).

Quote
Even with the very healthy bid side, dumping such an amount of coins would still yield a significant spread. Part of the game is also to sell higher than everybody else does, which doesn't necessarily mean that they gonna buy back. Creating a wall is one of the easiest ways to archive that.
A wall that big simply encourages people to build in asks right in front of it....  someone with that many bitcoins should either hire a broker to do the selling for them, or at least have some means of monitoring it at regular intervals....  so then something like 500 BTC "walls" makes a lot more sense.  It also gives you the opportunity to sell the remainder at even higher prices... if someone is going to buy your whole chunk of 12000 or whatever it is at $21, then you probably missed out on some even greater potential profits.

(ed:  there's also the whole 0.01 sell going on, to make the price look artificially lower)

of course, all this could have a good purpose if there's some way to short sell bitcoins that i'm unaware of

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February 04, 2013, 11:15:34 AM
 #9425

bitcoincharts.com down -> many bots disabled?

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ElectricMucus
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February 04, 2013, 11:17:47 AM
 #9426

Quote
Even with the very healthy bid side, dumping such an amount of coins would still yield a significant spread. Part of the game is also to sell higher than everybody else does, which doesn't necessarily mean that they gonna buy back. Creating a wall is one of the easiest ways to archive that.
A wall that big simply encourages people to build in asks right in front of it....  someone with that many bitcoins should either hire a broker to do the selling for them, or at least have some means of monitoring it at regular intervals....  so then something like 500 BTC "walls" makes a lot more sense.  It also gives you the opportunity to sell the remainder at even higher prices... if someone is going to buy your whole chunk of 12000 or whatever it is at $21, then you probably missed out on some even greater potential profits.

(ed:  there's also the whole 0.01 sell going on, to make the price look artificially lower)

of course, all this could have a good purpose if there's some way to short sell bitcoins that i'm unaware of

You have to abandon the belief that everything is either market manipulation or legitimate trade. There is no hard distinction between the two, especially at high levels.
It's all part of the strategy to beat the market. Of course the walls move the price, but they do no always push the price.

One way to think of this is as a strategy to exploit the pump & dumpers who buy at any price. If the price moves down too much the wall will miraculously disappear or shrink, you'll see Wink

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
SlaveInDebt
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February 04, 2013, 11:21:18 AM
 #9427

Quote
Even with the very healthy bid side, dumping such an amount of coins would still yield a significant spread. Part of the game is also to sell higher than everybody else does, which doesn't necessarily mean that they gonna buy back. Creating a wall is one of the easiest ways to archive that.
A wall that big simply encourages people to build in asks right in front of it....  someone with that many bitcoins should either hire a broker to do the selling for them, or at least have some means of monitoring it at regular intervals....  so then something like 500 BTC "walls" makes a lot more sense.  It also gives you the opportunity to sell the remainder at even higher prices... if someone is going to buy your whole chunk of 12000 or whatever it is at $21, then you probably missed out on some even greater potential profits.

(ed:  there's also the whole 0.01 sell going on, to make the price look artificially lower)

of course, all this could have a good purpose if there's some way to short sell bitcoins that i'm unaware of

You have to abandon the belief that everything is either market manipulation or legitimate trade. There is no hard distinction between the two, especially at high levels.
It's all part of the strategy to beat the market. Of course the walls move the price, but they do no always push the price.

One way to think of this is as a strategy to exploit the pump & dumpers who buy at any price. If the price moves down too much the wall will miraculously disappear or shrink, you'll see Wink

Why are your hands still up?  Wink

"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain." - Mark Twain
Luno
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February 04, 2013, 03:10:25 PM
 #9428


In other words: If the buyers aren't willing to chew that wall, it's not worth buying an Avalon.

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February 04, 2013, 05:15:07 PM
 #9429

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February 04, 2013, 08:30:03 PM
 #9430



This pic means it can be done  Cheesy
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February 04, 2013, 08:54:09 PM
 #9431


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February 04, 2013, 09:58:21 PM
 #9432

boom, back over $20

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February 04, 2013, 09:58:32 PM
 #9433

The wall is gone after the last sell off to 19.90. I had considered selling a bit if it fell to that range to buy back cheaper, but highly suspected this would happen. It just felt like all those bids were the Wallmaker's bids. Seems so, haha.
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February 04, 2013, 10:49:34 PM
 #9434

Last chance to sell above 20  Cool

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February 04, 2013, 10:49:47 PM
 #9435

The wall is gone after the last sell off to 19.90. I had considered selling a bit if it fell to that range to buy back cheaper, but highly suspected this would happen. It just felt like all those bids were the Wallmaker's bids. Seems so, haha.

I'm still amazed this tactic works.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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February 04, 2013, 11:22:07 PM
 #9436

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February 04, 2013, 11:24:05 PM
 #9437

Last chance to sell above 20  Cool

Holy crap dude...put something in your sig to indicate your nearly unbroken streak of incorrect calls.

If you're following your own advice you must eat a whole lot of ramen noodles.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130982.msg1401799#msg1401799 - [BTC-TC]bASIC-MINING
http://forum.litecoin.net/index.php/topic,886.0.html - [LTC-GLOBAL]LTC-DMF
http://forum.litecoin.net/index.php/topic,817.msg3279.html#msg3279 - [CRYPTOSTOCKS]AGLTC

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February 04, 2013, 11:37:25 PM
 #9438

And Satoshi said to Adam: don't eat that apple from lucif, or your become a bear!
But Adam couldn't avoid such temptation
He ate the bearish apple and was expelled from Wall Observer thread

Bitcoin fall. Genesis. Chapter 1.
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February 04, 2013, 11:50:05 PM
 #9439

And Satoshi said to Adam: don't eat that apple from lucif, or your become a bear!
But Adam couldn't avoid such temptation
He ate the bearish apple and was expelled from Wall Observer thread

Bitcoin fall. Genesis. Chapter 1.

Congratulations Adam  Roll Eyes
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February 04, 2013, 11:51:51 PM
 #9440

And Satoshi said to Adam: don't eat that apple from lucif, or your become a bear!
But Adam couldn't avoid such temptation
He ate the bearish apple and was expelled from Wall Observer thread

Bitcoin fall. Genesis. Chapter 1.

Just rounded my 666'th post which, with all due respect, should have been a comment in your analyst thread. However there were no satanic posts at the time to interfer with.

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