Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker

[oakpacific]

It never ceases to amaze me to see how similar all the dumps are.

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[smoothie]

It never ceases to amaze me to see how similar all the dumps are.

Well how much differently do we all take a dump on the throne?

Plunk plunk...poooo 

[bzzard]

Yeah...
 - dump
 - some dead cat bounce
 - go slightly below dump
 - some stagnation
 - and back on track to the moon

[oakpacific]

Yeah...
 - dump
 - some dead cat bounce
 - go slightly below dump
 - some stagnation
 - and back on track to the moon

If it is a real crash, after the bounceback a second wave of even more massive selloff will immediately follow, otherwise it's just a plain old correction.

[arruah]

I'm tired to follow this My plan: I share my coins into two parts one sold to 19 and put on 15 for the purchase. Another part put on sale for 30.

[Bowjob]

Wow, as soon as I get to buy an ASIC. Fuck this dump.

[arruah]

Wow, as soon as I get to buy an ASIC. Fuck this dump.

Avalon ASIC? Second Batch?

[SlaveInDebt]

It never ceases to amaze me to see how similar all the dumps are.

Well how much differently do we all take a dump on the throne?

Plunk plunk...poooo 

Ahhh this guy 

[proudhon]

lol, if you look at the order book, close to $1 million just went "poof".  That's a successful pump and dump.

[thoughtfan]

...That's a successful pump and dump.

I keep seeing this term used here as an explanation of what's going on.  For this to have been the case it would need to have been one person or more collaborating who:

• had already had bought the BTC intended to be dumped;
• had here or somewhere else prominent, been encouraging people to buy by " false and misleading positive statements*";
• subsequently had sold enough to have triggered (or to have taken advantage) of this morning's dump;

Is there any evidence that this is the case?  Otherwise there's no end of possible explanations for what happened with so many players (including so many inexperienced amateurs) in the game.

* This is from the Wikipedia definition I'm referring to which classifies Pump and Dump as fraudulent.  Maybe what's being referred to here however is one or many people simply by the timing and size of their buying encouraging others to follow suit to push the price higher in order to then take advantage of the higher price by selling, again followed by the followers, thus causing a substantial drop in price?  If so is there a more suitable term from this that doesn't imply wrongdoing?  That's simply playing the speculation game where rather than blaming others' imagined manipulation for their losses I'm hoping people will more learn to make better judgements with their trading.  I believe it is that, combined with more professionals with volume and experience (and leveraged trading) that will in the long-term take out these double-digit percentage drops and hikes and provide a more stable exchange - which is a more helpful outcome to all those using Bitcoin outside of speculation.

[waspoza]

lol, if you look at the order book, close to $1 million just went "poof".  That's a successful pump and dump.

Half milion vanished before the dump. Maybe this is good indicator to spot dumps?

[robocoin]

Think of it as looking at a BTC price chart adjusted for inflation against USD.

So essentially, what you're looking at is the real value of Bitcoin hitting the all-time high of 2011, relative to USD.

Remember, Bitcoin does inflate.

This gives you a better indication of the actual, real, inflation-adjusted value of BTC at the moment, as opposed to the nominal price of about $20.00 USD currently.

Basically, Bitcoin is as at least as valuable as it was at the high in 2011, and looks like it is even beginning to surpass it.

I think that's kind of a big deal... like breaking through the all time high of $31.00/BTC here...

I get your point, but why don't you create a inflation adjusted Bitcoin market cap graph?
"Basically, Bitcoin is as at least as valuable as it was at the high in 2011, and looks like it is even beginning to surpass it." So check your inflation statement against it. Nethertheless do you even understand blockchain.info's market cap graph? Its for the lulz. And you try to get serious on it.

inflation adjusted bitcoin market cap = btc price, no?
I think the market cap is a good thing to look at.  Probably the best way to judge bitcoin is something between btc price and market cap.

BTC market cap, in USD = BTC value adjusted for BTC rate of inflation, in USD

It's not the exchange rate, or the "price", in USD. But it does display value more accurately, rather than the exchange rate.

In my opinion, value is way more important than price when it comes to trading. Which is why I focused on it here.

To answer your question, spaceman, yes lol and I agree that price is relevant as well. Especially even numbers 10, 20, 100...

Whan speaking of bitcoin, is deflation a more appropriate term ?  IMO, Bitcoin are in deflation, not inflation !  I'm I wrong ?  if yes,, why ?

Whaterever, I still don't see how I can use this graph. And "market cap" is the wrong word. Of course values rise because there are more Bitcoins. Its actually a overdramatized statistic of Mt.Gox's BTC/USD values with the total of Bitcoins mined added to it. I wouldn't dare using it as an indicator.

With "inflation adjusted Bitcoin market cap graph" I meant to adjust the Dollar value itself...
I think we should ban this graph from our heads.

Professionals (I'm not one), any comment on this?

[sounds]

robocoin, you sound a lot like DoomDumas:

Inflation ?   actual CPI calculated of inflation in terms of the 1980's CPI calculation ?  (it so different !!!)

Sure, the CPI is unusable as a baseline inflation measure for the USD. Even M1, M2, etc. are obviously off.

Bitcoin mining is the opposite of fiat inflation. Looking at a "market cap" can give a first-order approximation of the total amount of fiat currency that has been converted to Bitcoin. If my theory holds, the market cap isn't the cause of any trading, it's an effect, but it does tend to prove that bitcoin mining increases the value of each bitcoin – that wouldn't happen if mining were the same as fiat inflation.

[sounds]

I'm not a professional bitcoin trader.

That would have to be someone who makes enough money trading they don't have to have another job. Is there anyone doing that much volume? (I doubt it.)

[Luno]

Monday we fear you and adore you. Are you able to convert the faithless or are you disillusioned as well?

We need a comparable rush in, or we will see $18 before $20.

Not having a real life job makes you a proffesional trader!!!

[Sitarow]

lol, if you look at the order book, close to $1 million just went "poof".  That's a successful pump and dump.

Half milion vanished before the dump. Maybe this is good indicator to spot dumps?

Individuals interested in ordering Avalon Batch 2 may be sitting on a large cash balance in any given Exchange holding on purchasing BTC prior to placing the order. Once they have secured an order then moving to purchase the needed BTC to fill the Avalon order invoice. This tactic will help prevent any potential currency valuation drop prior to placing the order.

[thoughtfan]

Bitcoin mining is the opposite of fiat inflation.

How is this the case?  Mining generates new Bitcoin.  Printing FRNs (or creating FRN denominated loans electronically) creates new fiat.  How is that 'the opposite'?

If my theory holds, the market cap isn't the cause of any trading, it's an effect, but it does tend to prove that bitcoin mining increases the value of each bitcoin – that wouldn't happen if mining were the same as fiat inflation.

I fear you are ascribing causality here where there is none.  I have seen nothing to suggest mining (i.e creating new currency) 'increases the value of each bitcoin'.  Indirectly of course the process of mining; the fact there is a mining network is what gives bitcoin value therefore it is fair to say without the process of mining the existing bitcoin would be of no value but that is not the same.  The usd value of bitcoin is determined by the balance of supply and demand.  Nothing else.  If it's going up it's because demand is outstripping supply.  Increasing coin production by more mining (if that were not restricted by the process) would increase supply and usd value would decrease.

As I said above Bitcoin is currently out-inflating USD and most other currencies and the only reason that isn't putting people off Bitcoin is that we can know with full certainty it will eventually be a deflationary currency.  It is far from one for the few years ahead.  If the FRB were to find a way of encoding a promise to do the same (halve the introduction of new currency every x years) into the way they create new dollar Bitcoin would lose a substantial part of its advantage.  However, apart from the logistical implications of that I can't see them or the US (or any other) government ever agreeing to yield the monetary control they currently wield.

[kokojie]

Showing off my best bottom catching this year:

[notme]

Bitcoin mining is the opposite of fiat inflation.

How is this the case?  Mining generates new Bitcoin.  Printing FRNs (or creating FRN denominated loans electronically) creates new fiat.  How is that 'the opposite'?

If my theory holds, the market cap isn't the cause of any trading, it's an effect, but it does tend to prove that bitcoin mining increases the value of each bitcoin – that wouldn't happen if mining were the same as fiat inflation.

I fear you are ascribing causality here where there is none.  I have seen nothing to suggest mining (i.e creating new currency) 'increases the value of each bitcoin'.  Indirectly of course the process of mining; the fact there is a mining network is what gives bitcoin value therefore it is fair to say without the process of mining the existing bitcoin would be of no value but that is not the same.  The usd value of bitcoin is determined by the balance of supply and demand.  Nothing else.  If it's going up it's because demand is outstripping supply.  Increasing coin production by more mining (if that were not restricted by the process) would increase supply and usd value would decrease.

As I said above Bitcoin is currently out-inflating USD and most other currencies and the only reason that isn't putting people off Bitcoin is that we can know with full certainty it will eventually be a deflationary currency.  It is far from one for the few years ahead.  If the FRB were to find a way of encoding a promise to do the same (halve the introduction of new currency every x years) into the way they create new dollar Bitcoin would lose a substantial part of its advantage.  However, apart from the logistical implications of that I can't see them or the US (or any other) government ever agreeing to yield the monetary control they currently wield.

Increased mining does increase the value of each bitcoin since it makes it more expensive to attack the network.  Sure, it's still supply and demand, but this effects the supply(willingness to hold from more security decreases supply) and demand(willingness to hold increases demand).  The fact that the mining process automatically adjusts to keep the generation rate constant keeps the added security from increasing the supply other than the very short term.

[lebing]

Nice Kokojie

Weekend dips are so predictable, I kick myself that I dont take advantage of them more