ANTMINER S5: 1155GH(+OverClock Potential), In Stock $0.319/GH & 0.51W/GH

[aurel57]

make 2 orders and you are almost done

no you can buy 1 or 2 or 3  but if I do an order of 2 and an order of 1 I lose on shipping.

 Shipping for 3 s-5's is  96 via fedex.

Shipping for 2 s-5's is 76 shipping for 1 s-5 is 46 or 122 if I break up the order into 1 + 2.

   this is a no brainer for them to fix.

Or if anyone wants 3x   30 usd coupons for 1x  45 dollar coupon please pm me.

Phil get ahold of strato as he had a large amount of $45 coupons

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=133854

[pekatete]

Anyone tried running one of these beasts off 2 PSU's ... aka 1 for each board?
Not sure whether I am seeing correct numbers so I'll cross-check with anyone who has (or has not for that matter).

Running 1 S5 with 2 Dell 550W server PSU's ..... I took this snapshot an hour ago, but the errors have crept up to 25 (0.0008%)



EDIT: And I am running this with just an S3 fan in pull .... seems like the stock fan arrived dead!

[philipma1957]

make 2 orders and you are almost done

no you can buy 1 or 2 or 3  but if I do an order of 2 and an order of 1 I lose on shipping.

 Shipping for 3 s-5's is  96 via fedex.

Shipping for 2 s-5's is 76 shipping for 1 s-5 is 46 or 122 if I break up the order into 1 + 2.

   this is a no brainer for them to fix.

Or if anyone wants 3x   30 usd coupons for 1x  45 dollar coupon please pm me.

Phil get ahold of strato as he had a large amount of $45 coupons

he gave me 2.  so when I saw the price drop to 310 I said I should buy 2.

I went to the site and   saw 3 shipping choices.  So I made a shipping chart::

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=926539.msg10206751#msg10206751

from this post above:

yeah good point > I have been trying to figure out the shipping angle if you buy

shipping to USA New Jersey

     ups----------fedex-----------dhl

1) 47.77------- 46.87----------- 56.28

2)  83.59------ 75.62----------- 99.00

3) 118.54------96.10---------- 141.27

4) 146.46-----120.35----------181.98

Based on the chart  above buying 3 and using fedex to ship is the best deal for me.  3 x 310= 930 + 96.10 = 1026.10

 I have 3 coupons worth   130  so . 1026.10- 130 =   896.10

  I am going to buy this today.


and I can't do it.  because their site is has a software defect. that does not allow for mixed values on s-5 coupons.


yea I can order 2 for 620 + 75 = 695   -  90  = 605   using the 2x 45  coupons  

    which comes to 302.50 a unit

but if they let me do it correctly I could have 3 for 896.10  or  298.70 each.     so   would pay more per unit.

I also only wanted 1 of the three and would sell the other 2 on ebay  or on site here.

    fuck it not worth bothering with it.  their loss not mine.

[dog1965]

Anyone tried running one of these beasts off 2 PSU's ... aka 1 for each board?
Not sure whether I am seeing correct numbers so I'll cross-check with anyone who has (or has not for that matter).

Running 1 S5 with 2 Dell 550W server PSU's ..... I took this snapshot an hour ago, but the errors have crept up to 25 (0.0008%)



EDIT: And I am running this with just an S3 fan in pull .... seems like the stock fan arrived dead!

No way on those temps are you running liquid nitro!!!

[pekatete]

Anyone tried running one of these beasts off 2 PSU's ... aka 1 for each board?
Not sure whether I am seeing correct numbers so I'll cross-check with anyone who has (or has not for that matter).

Running 1 S5 with 2 Dell 550W server PSU's ..... I took this snapshot an hour ago, but the errors have crept up to 25 (0.0008%)

<snip> img </snip>

EDIT: And I am running this with just an S3 fan in pull .... seems like the stock fan arrived dead!

No way on those temps are you running liquid nitro!!!

Its winter here now and since the summer when I built a shed for my rigs in the garden, I've had no reason to bring them back indoors, thus the temps.

[kreativling]

Anyone tried running one of these beasts off 2 PSU's ... aka 1 for each board?
Not sure whether I am seeing correct numbers so I'll cross-check with anyone who has (or has not for that matter).

Running 1 S5 with 2 Dell 550W server PSU's ..... I took this snapshot an hour ago, but the errors have crept up to 25 (0.0008%)

EDIT: And I am running this with just an S3 fan in pull .... seems like the stock fan arrived dead!

I am not running a 2 PSU setup. But I have lots of HW errors even if I underclock the S5. I am running now with 0.02% error rate default speed. I am using a 730W Xilence PSU with 56A on the 12V rail. Could HW errors occur more often if the S5 has problems with the PSU?

EDIT: I have not seen more than 41 degrees celsius on the blades due to winter time...

[visdude]

make 2 orders and you are almost done

no you can buy 1 or 2 or 3  but if I do an order of 2 and an order of 1 I lose on shipping.

 Shipping for 3 s-5's is  96 via fedex.

Shipping for 2 s-5's is 76 shipping for 1 s-5 is 46 or 122 if I break up the order into 1 + 2.

   this is a no brainer for them to fix.

Or if anyone wants 3x   30 usd coupons for 1x  45 dollar coupon please pm me.

Phil get ahold of strato as he had a large amount of $45 coupons

he gave me 2.  so when I saw the price drop to 310 I said I should buy 2.

I went to the site and   saw 3 shipping choices.  So I made a shipping chart::

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=926539.msg10206751#msg10206751

from this post above:

yeah good point > I have been trying to figure out the shipping angle if you buy

shipping to USA New Jersey

     ups----------fedex-----------dhl

1) 47.77------- 46.87----------- 56.28

2)  83.59------ 75.62----------- 99.00

3) 118.54------96.10---------- 141.27

4) 146.46-----120.35----------181.98

Based on the chart  above buying 3 and using fedex to ship is the best deal for me.  3 x 310= 930 + 96.10 = 1026.10

 I have 3 coupons worth   130  so . 1026.10- 130 =   896.10

  I am going to buy this today.


and I can't do it.  because their site is has a software defect. that does not allow for mixed values on s-5 coupons.


yea I can order 2 for 620 + 75 = 695   -  90  = 605   using the 2x 45  coupons  

    which comes to 302.50 a unit

but if they let me do it correctly I could have 3 for 896.10  or  298.70 each.     so   would pay more per unit.

I also only wanted 1 of the three and would sell the other 2 on ebay  or on site here.

    fuck it not worth bothering with it.  their loss not mine.

I have deludedly convinced myself to take the plunge with this recent price drop but...

@ US$310 (without taking into account shipping cost, future network diff variances and BTC volatility), it would take an S5 about five months to recover such a price at the current exchange rate (US$215):

.01 BTC per day S5 yield * USD215 = US$2.15 per day S5 yield

US$310 S5 price / US$2.15 = 144.19 days

144.19 days / 30 days per month = 4.81 months or about 5 months rounded up...

...again, not considering shipping cost, diff variances and BTC volatility.

That water is still too cold for me to jump into.


Edit 1:  Oh!  Energy cost is also not taken into account, BTW.

Edit 2:  ...and other additional expenditures such as PSUs, fan mods, etc.

[Lowell904]

Anyone tried running one of these beasts off 2 PSU's ... aka 1 for each board?
Not sure whether I am seeing correct numbers so I'll cross-check with anyone who has (or has not for that matter).

Running 1 S5 with 2 Dell 550W server PSU's ..... I took this snapshot an hour ago, but the errors have crept up to 25 (0.0008%)

EDIT: And I am running this with just an S3 fan in pull .... seems like the stock fan arrived dead!

I am not running a 2 PSU setup. But I have lots of HW errors even if I underclock the S5. I am running now with 0.02% error rate default speed. I am using a 730W Xilence PSU with 56A on the 12V rail. Could HW errors occur more often if the S5 has problems with the PSU?

EDIT: I have not seen more than 41 degrees celsius on the blades due to winter time...

It might. I've never heard of that brand of PSU. Is it 80 plus? Bronze or gold rated? Can you measure the watts at the wall. You may be cutting it close with that one, if it's not very efficient.

Edit: I have had issues running miners in too cold of an environment in the past. It could be the cold, but I still suspect the PSU.

[visdude]

Anyone tried running one of these beasts off 2 PSU's ... aka 1 for each board?
Not sure whether I am seeing correct numbers so I'll cross-check with anyone who has (or has not for that matter).

Running 1 S5 with 2 Dell 550W server PSU's ..... I took this snapshot an hour ago, but the errors have crept up to 25 (0.0008%)



EDIT: And I am running this with just an S3 fan in pull .... seems like the stock fan arrived dead!

It looks good to me...especially if your configuration has been able to sustain such an OC for an extended period of time.  Ten thousandths of a percent is virtually non-existent.

In fact, that's what I have actually planned on doing if and when I decide to get some S5s (see my prior post) as I still have several spare Corsair CX500 PSUs which have a 456WDC max on their single +12V rail per spec (label) and an efficiency of about 85% at around 65% load.  Using a CX500 to power an S5 blade as an example and assuming that an OC'd S5 draws 700WAC (350WAC per blade) at the wall, a CX500 would have a comfortable 65% load (35% headroom/margin):

350WAC per blade at the wall * 85% PSU efficiency = 297.5WDC draw from the CX500

297.5WDC / 456WDC CX500 +12V rail max load = 65% load on the CX500 (or 35% headroom/margin)

[dog1965]

man what are you running liquid nitrogen or do you have them inside of a cold garage or something ?

[dog1965]

Do You get a bonus if you find a block on BAN ?

I fell 5% short dam it!!!

Because I changed the fans!!!

[Phosphorous]

I have deludedly convinced myself to take the plunge with this recent price drop but...

@ US$310 (without taking into account shipping cost, future network diff variances and BTC volatility), it would take an S5 about five months to recover such a price at the current exchange rate (US$215):

.01 BTC per day S5 yield * USD215 = US$2.15 per day S5 yield

US$310 S5 price / US$2.15 = 144.19 days

144.19 days / 30 days per month = 4.81 months or about 5 months rounded up...

...again, not considering shipping cost, diff variances and BTC volatility.

That water is still too cold for me to jump into.


Edit 1:  Oh!  Energy cost is also not taken into account, BTW.

Edit 2:  ...and other additional expenditures such as PSUs, fan mods, etc.

And assuming the miner has $0 value after 5 months, which isn't the case.

[navigatrix]

As is the case with most, my miner cannot stay in the house due to noise. I've seen where people have them in basement or in a garage. Any issues with insects or humidity and the S5? I've got a detached garage that is not climate controlled, and I'm pretty sure I need to move it out there.

I have mine in my lapidary shop with the intake fans pointing at an open window. Not heating up much but still really loud.

I did have an issue with one of my S3's when the intake fan sucked in a bee and stopped spinning. It wasn't wedged in hard or anything -- pulled it out with a tweezers. I imagine the S5 intake would do the same. Did I say there was no screen on the window?

[visdude]

I have deludedly convinced myself to take the plunge with this recent price drop but...

@ US$310 (without taking into account shipping cost, future network diff variances and BTC volatility), it would take an S5 about five months to recover such a price at the current exchange rate (US$215):

.01 BTC per day S5 yield * USD215 = US$2.15 per day S5 yield

US$310 S5 price / US$2.15 = 144.19 days

144.19 days / 30 days per month = 4.81 months or about 5 months rounded up...

...again, not considering shipping cost, diff variances and BTC volatility.

That water is still too cold for me to jump into.


Edit 1:  Oh!  Energy cost is also not taken into account, BTW.

Edit 2:  ...and other additional expenditures such as PSUs, fan mods, etc.

And assuming the miner has $0 value after 5 months, which isn't the case.

In that case, what is the general resale value (% of purchase price) of miners after 5 months?  Based on it, can you present a concise calculation to show that such a resale value (assuming one would sell them) would be significant enough to recover (and hopefully make at least a small profit) the total cost in buying and operating an S5 at this price point at this time?  If your presentation will be convincing enough, I might just go ahead and take the plunge anyway.  While we're at it, why not also factor in time, effort and other related incidentals incurred in the course of a mining operation.

[philipma1957]

I have deludedly convinced myself to take the plunge with this recent price drop but...

@ US$310 (without taking into account shipping cost, future network diff variances and BTC volatility), it would take an S5 about five months to recover such a price at the current exchange rate (US$215):

.01 BTC per day S5 yield * USD215 = US$2.15 per day S5 yield

US$310 S5 price / US$2.15 = 144.19 days

144.19 days / 30 days per month = 4.81 months or about 5 months rounded up...

...again, not considering shipping cost, diff variances and BTC volatility.

That water is still too cold for me to jump into.


Edit 1:  Oh!  Energy cost is also not taken into account, BTW.

Edit 2:  ...and other additional expenditures such as PSUs, fan mods, etc.

And assuming the miner has $0 value after 5 months, which isn't the case.

In that case, what is the general resale value (% of purchase price) of miners after 5 months?  Based on it, can you present a concise calculation to show that such a resale price would be significant enough to recover (and hopefully make a small profit) the total cost in buying and operating an S5 at this price point at this time?  If your presentation will be convincing enough, I might just take the plunge anyway.  While we're at it, why not also factor in time, effort and other related incidentals incurred in the course of a mining operation.

An argument to buy s-5 miners today.

A) you must have some coupons 45 dollar ones preferred.
B) you must buy in units of 3 and you must have 3x 45 dollar coupons.
C) you must have power supplies in hand.
D) you must have a way to sell now.  I have a stellar ebay account I can also sell here.
E) you must have at least 1 in your possession now.
Lets say all of the above are true.

3 units = 930 it is 96 usd to ship 3 to the usa  via fed ex  price is 1026  - 135 in 45 dollar coupons. = 881 for 3 units shipped to you home.

You must sell one now on ebay or on this site.
I know you could sell one on ebay for 440.  After fees you get 370 in hand  sell 2 you get 740 in hand.

881- 740 = 141 for 1 unit. your in home setup is 0 as you have  a psu from prior mining.  At 141 you can roi it should be about 5 months to roi

or

881 -370 = 511 for 2 units.  your in home setup is 0 as you have a psu from prior mining. at 255 you may not roi it should be about 10 months to roi.

I have 2x 45 dollar coupons

so 620 + 76 to ship = 696 - 90 = 606

606 - 370 net on ebay means my 1 cost me  236.  that is just a bit out of my comfort zone as roi should be 9 months.

These are hard times for miners.  I was going to get the 3 but the site did not allow me to use 2x 45 coupons and 1 x 40 dollar coupon for 3 units.  if it had I would have done this sold 2 on ebay and kept the 1 to mine,  but the site does not allow for mixed value coupons and bitmaintech did not send me a 45 dollar one to let me have 3.

so I can't do ant business with them at this time.  That third coupon which I should be able to use and can't use kills any chance of roi for me.    that is how tight the margins are for me.

[dkaufman]

I have deludedly convinced myself to take the plunge with this recent price drop but...

@ US$310 (without taking into account shipping cost, future network diff variances and BTC volatility), it would take an S5 about five months to recover such a price at the current exchange rate (US$215):

.01 BTC per day S5 yield * USD215 = US$2.15 per day S5 yield

US$310 S5 price / US$2.15 = 144.19 days

144.19 days / 30 days per month = 4.81 months or about 5 months rounded up...

...again, not considering shipping cost, diff variances and BTC volatility.

That water is still too cold for me to jump into.

I look at it this way: There is about zero probability that the currently plunged price, of $212, at the moment, will remain the price for the next 5 months, right?  On the other hand, I can personally guarantee you -- there a 100% probability! -- that it will either go up, down, or stay about the same :-)

So, lets look at each possibility, and see if we can come up with a plan for each eventuality, including the worst-case scenario:

1. starting with the easiest: the price could go up.  Maybe steadily, maybe suddenly, maybe only slightly and maybe, just maybe (say a 1% likelihood) retaking all the ground it lost this year and then some, to $1100 after the yen or the yuan or the euro undergoes some scary crash-ey volatility, maybe the ruble crashes and 143 million Russians take their savings and flee to bitcoin for safety, all on the same day :-) Then all the $200 bitcoins you mined this month will be worth much, more (assuming you save them, and don't spend them on playthings!) and you will experience what I call "Retroactive ROI".  This happened to me last year.  My mining gear was barely earning the price of a cup of coffee a day (and I drink much, much more coffee than that).  But the few thousand dollars I'd accumulated became many the week of Thanksgiving.  I cashed out most of it, paid off a bunch of credit cards (made the wife very happy) and when the price tanked, and then kept tanking, gradually lower and lower, each month, all year long I chose to look at that as a buying opportunity.  I plan to have a lot more bitcoins -- much of them purchased at today's prices -- the next time the universe comes together with a few different pieces of synchronicity, from a few different directions.  Some economy somewhere "corrects" the day after some new commercial giant suddenly embraces crypto-currency publicly, and some bureaucrat televises a much-anticipated regulatory hearing about bitcoin that doesn't go badly.  So, when I say the price could go up, I really believe that over the next 5 -15 years it *must* go up.  A lot.  I just don't know when :-)

2. it could stay about the same.  Or, more realistically, fluctuate maddeningly without getting anywhere too far away from today's price.  In this scenario, your calculations (maybe adjusted to take difficulty adjustments, PSU's and fan mods, and power costs into account) bear out.  So it's June and your miners have finally paid for themselves and now, although they don't earn what they used to, its all profit until they can't even pay for their electricity, which is still a ways off.  So you can keep running them, and make a little more.  If you believe as I do that, over the long haul, btc will take over the world, then keep banking those bitnickels and bitdimes every day, and be sure to leave them alone, and let them add up...

3. the BTC price could continue its current plunge and be god-knows-how-low by June of 2015, and then the $310 plus shipping that you spend today would be mostly lost.  But, like they say in the stock market, you don't "lock in the loss" unless you sell while the price is low.  You're loss on June 19th is just 'how you're doing".  You still have mining hardware that is still mining a little each day.  You have all the bitcoin you've mined in 5 months, if you're smart and you've saved it!  You don't "lose" until you give up and sell low.  Be smart and hold those coins long term -- things will turn around sooner or later.

Mining is like dollar-cost-averaging.  You add bitcoin to your portfolio, gradually, completely independent of the whatever "the market" says they are worth at this moment or that.  I invest in mining equipment when it is proven and not as expensive when first introduced, mine like hell and then sell it before its resale value is completely lost.  Sometimes the product cycle forces me to keep equipment longer than I'd like, or sell it too soon.  But I roll my eyes when people say "it will never roi".  They are predicting that the coins you mine with it will never appreciate in value.  They are basing their calculations on the assumption that you will not sell it when it still has some resale value  They are looking at the extremely short term only.  They are the ones who sell their btc the moment they mine it.  If you take a buy-and-hold approach, you will buy steadily, only what you can afford to lose (or leave in an investment for 3 - 5 years), a little more each week or month, when the price is low, maybe less when the price is higher.  You will relax and remember, especially when the price drops, not to panic and sell your bitcoins as if the price may drop to zero -- it never does -- it rebounds, fast or slow. You will remember that, like Warren Buffet says, wise investors "get scared when everyone else is being greedy, and get greedy when everyone is getting scared" -- that simply means buy low, and sell high. And don't let the headlines fool you.

thanks,

-dave

[Phosphorous]

In that case, what is the general resale value (% of purchase price) of miners after 5 months?  Based on it, can you present a concise calculation to show that such a resale value (assuming one would sell them) would be significant enough to recover (and hopefully make at least a small profit) the total cost in buying and operating an S5 at this price point at this time?  If your presentation will be convincing enough, I might just go ahead and take the plunge anyway.  While we're at it, why not also factor in time, effort and other related incidentals incurred in the course of a mining operation.

I don't have anything precise, but you can look at history.
S3's came out in June. In October, they were easily worth $200.
I'm guessing an S5 will be worth at least $100 in April.

Regardless, If you're going to pick a time period (in this case 5 months), you want to calculate all expenses, all revenue, and all assets and the end of that time period. You've estimated the revenue in Bitcoin and the expenses, but you can't ignore the asset (the miner) that you still own. It's worth something whether you decide to keep running it, sell it, or let it collect dust.

[dkaufman]

I have deludedly convinced myself to take the plunge with this recent price drop but...
[snip]
@ US$310 (without taking into account shipping cost, future network diff variances and BTC volatility), it would take an S5 about five months to recover such a price at the current exchange rate (US$215):
[snip]
That water is still too cold for me to jump into.

And assuming the miner has $0 value after 5 months, which isn't the case.

In that case, what is the general resale value (% of purchase price) of miners after 5 months?  Based on it, can you present a concise calculation to show that such a resale value (assuming one would sell them) would be significant enough to recover (and hopefully make at least a small profit) the total cost in buying and operating an S5 at this price point at this time?  If your presentation will be convincing enough, I might just go ahead and take the plunge anyway.  While we're at it, why not also factor in time, effort and other related incidentals incurred in the course of a mining operation.

I can't predict the future, but I can report the past, and hope it continues to repeat itself:

In late may of 2013 I bought a ATI Radeon 7970 GPU video card for about $472, and had to upgrade my motherboard (and ram of course) and then my power supply to support it.  Maybe i spent $1000?  Bitcoin price was $83.  I mined with it for about 3 months, until my first Butterfly Labs Jalepeno finally arrived.  I sold the ATI card on eBay in September for $237, just about half what I'd bought it for, and I mined just about 1 BTC with it.  The bitcoin price had gone up by then almost 50% to 133!  So at the time I sold the video card, I had not even made a "paper profit".  I was out $250 USD with a measly $133 bitcoin to show for it.  Thing is, I didn't sell that bitcoin for over a year, till it was worth $1000.  By combining mining, and plain old investing, my "paper loss" paid for Christmas for three kids with plenty more to spare :-)

I took some time off mining this year.  I ran my 2 Jally's for fun, but been buying, instead of mining, bitcoin gradually all year too, since the Jally's weren't doing much more by then than adding a pleasant whirring sound and two additional blinky lights to my desktop's ambiance.

And then in late July I bought two S3's (too early, before the price drops) paying $745 for the pair.  They "paid for themselves" by around the end of October.  I added those quotes around "paid for themselves" because there are so many different ways to calculate it.  They'd earned as many dollars as I'd paid for them, if you define "earned" as totaling up their pool payments, each converted to USD using the exchange rate at the time of the payment.  But that was a purely theoretical exercise, since I did not sell all the bitcoin as I mined it -- I still have all of it.  Several weeks later they Returned On their Investment in the simplest terms: they had now mined the same number of bitcoins I'd paid for them -- so that was good.  They may have UN-ROI'ed since then, since the price is about a third of what it was when I started.  But I'm not freaking out.  There are booms and there are busts, and my plan, next time, is to have enough BTC that only cashing out 10% of the nut will still feel good.  And I'll let the other 90% ride.  I'll ride it all the way to -- well, you know.  (the moon -- there! I said it! I promised myself I'd never say it but that's where I plan to let it ride to lol)

I think I may have missed the boat on the resale value of this pair of S3's (like I missed the boat on the second Jally - I did sell the first one for about half what I bought it for).  But used S3's are barely selling for $100 now, and making somewhat less than that per month.  But they still keep the office warm 24/7 and dribble a few bit dimes a month into the retirement account.  So I'll probably run them into the ground, then put them in the kids rooms as auxiliary heat :-)

In between I also bought an S4, mined a coin or so ($500, then!) and then turned around and sold it for almost as much as I'd bought it for, so that was clearly a profitable deal, all in all.  But I miss it.  Our time together was cut far too short by my capitalist greed.  I wish I'd held onto it, especially since it was not only minting money, it was heating my basement and I was just one saws-all, just a bit of ductwork and 3 floor vents away from making it heat the upstairs too!  But I was getting quite the hairy eyeball from the wife when I mentioned cutting holes in her new hardwood floors.

So, no.  No one can tell you what your S5's will be worth in 5 months.  You just have to pay attention to the market (i tend to lean on the refresh button, searching recent ebay sales of whatever i'm mining with at the moment) and the difficulty, and the price until what you see that you could sell it for excites you a little more that what you think it has left in it as a miner.  It does take a *bit* of math, but also a bit of intuition, some hope and some trust ...that today's btc price is just a fleeting thing, while the bitcoins themselves are forever.

thanks,

-dave

[philipma1957]

I have deludedly convinced myself to take the plunge with this recent price drop but...

@ US$310 (without taking into account shipping cost, future network diff variances and BTC volatility), it would take an S5 about five months to recover such a price at the current exchange rate (US$215):

.01 BTC per day S5 yield * USD215 = US$2.15 per day S5 yield

US$310 S5 price / US$2.15 = 144.19 days

144.19 days / 30 days per month = 4.81 months or about 5 months rounded up...

...again, not considering shipping cost, diff variances and BTC volatility.

That water is still too cold for me to jump into.

I look at it this way: There is about zero probability that the currently plunged price, of $212, at the moment, will remain the price for the next 5 months, right?  On the other hand, I can personally guarantee you -- there a 100% probability! -- that it will either go up, down, or stay about the same :-)

So, lets look at each possibility, and see if we can come up with a plan for each eventuality, including the worst-case scenario:

1. starting with the easiest: the price could go up.  Maybe steadily, maybe suddenly, maybe only slightly and maybe, just maybe (say a 1% likelihood) retaking all the ground it lost this year and then some, to $1100 after the yen or the yuan or the euro undergoes some scary crash-ey volatility, maybe the ruble crashes and 143 million Russians take their savings and flee to bitcoin for safety, all on the same day :-) Then all the $200 bitcoins you mined this month will be worth much, more (assuming you save them, and don't spend them on playthings!) and you will experience what I call "Retroactive ROI".  This happened to me last year.  My mining gear was barely earning the price of a cup of coffee a day (and I drink much, much more coffee than that).  But the few thousand dollars I'd accumulated became many the week of Thanksgiving.  I cashed out most of it, paid off a bunch of credit cards (made the wife very happy) and when the price tanked, and then kept tanking, gradually lower and lower, each month, all year long I chose to look at that as a buying opportunity.  I plan to have a lot more bitcoins -- much of them purchased at today's prices -- the next time the universe comes together with a few different pieces of synchronicity, from a few different directions.  Some economy somewhere "corrects" the day after some new commercial giant suddenly embraces crypto-currency publicly, and some bureaucrat televises a much-anticipated regulatory hearing about bitcoin that doesn't go badly.  So, when I say the price could go up, I really believe that over the next 5 -15 years it *must* go up.  A lot.  I just don't know when :-)

2. it could stay about the same.  Or, more realistically, fluctuate maddeningly without getting anywhere too far away from today's price.  In this scenario, your calculations (maybe adjusted to take difficulty adjustments, PSU's and fan mods, and power costs into account) bear out.  So it's June and your miners have finally paid for themselves and now, although they don't earn what they used to, its all profit until they can't even pay for their electricity, which is still a ways off.  So you can keep running them, and make a little more.  If you believe as I do that, over the long haul, btc will take over the world, then keep banking those bitnickels and bitdimes every day, and be sure to leave them alone, and let them add up...

3. the BTC price could continue its current plunge and be god-knows-how-low by June of 2015, and then the $310 plus shipping that you spend today would be mostly lost.  But, like they say in the stock market, you don't "lock in the loss" unless you sell while the price is low.  You're loss on June 19th is just 'how you're doing".  You still have mining hardware that is still mining a little each day.  You have all the bitcoin you've mined in 5 months, if you're smart and you've saved it!  You don't "lose" until you give up and sell low.  Be smart and hold those coins long term -- things will turn around sooner or later.

Mining is like dollar-cost-averaging.  You add bitcoin to your portfolio, gradually, completely independent of the whatever "the market" says they are worth at this moment or that.  I invest in mining equipment when it is proven and not as expensive when first introduced, mine like hell and then sell it before its resale value is completely lost.  Sometimes the product cycle forces me to keep equipment longer than I'd like, or sell it too soon.  But I roll my eyes when people say "it will never roi".  They are predicting that the coins you mine with it will never appreciate in value.  They are basing their calculations on the assumption that you will not sell it when it still has some resale value  They are looking at the extremely short term only.  They are the ones who sell their btc the moment they mine it.  If you take a buy-and-hold approach, you will buy steadily, only what you can afford to lose (or leave in an investment for 3 - 5 years), a little more each week or month, when the price is low, maybe less when the price is higher.  You will relax and remember, especially when the price drops, not to panic and sell your bitcoins as if the price may drop to zero -- it never does -- it rebounds, fast or slow. You will remember that, like Warren Buffet says, wise investors "get scared when everyone else is being greedy, and get greedy when everyone is getting scared" -- that simply means buy low, and sell high. And don't let the headlines fool you.

thanks,

-dave

I agree with your logic for the most part.  What I do not understand is bitmaintech not correcting the coupons.
I am not the only one with a mix of coupons for s-3's  >  

I have  5x  30$
I have  1x  40$
I have  2x  45$

I want 3 pieces   in  1 order and I want to use the two 45$ coupons along with the 1 40$ coupon.  The system only allows 1 choice from my three different coupons.

So effectively bitmaintech is killing a 1000 sale due to a coupon issue .  Makes you really wonder what  they are thinking>

No one is saying margins are loose and the money is flowing  think 1100 usd a coin.  I have to think if the biggest seller of asic gear can make the coupons work correctly and don't answer the why of it I should not get more of these.

[MyRig]

PM please for coupon conversion