sidehack
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 3346
Merit: 1855
Curmudgeonly hardware guy
|
 |
March 11, 2015, 12:03:33 PM |
|
I'm working with a guy who'd been trying to get ahold of Bitmain for weeks about a bulk purchase of S5 without a single word in reply from them to either of us. Until I emailed them five minutes after seeing the S5 was back online at $320. When they got back to me 12 hours later (at $419) I was told there was no price break for up to 100 units. So basically if I wanted to lay down on a purchase like would have been very straightforward before the holiday, now we'd be giving them an extra $10K just for the opportunity. I'm sure they're not screwing their "If you need more than 500 S5 at once" customers over but I can't advise my guy to buy a huge lot from them if they're not willing to be reasonable about a test-the-waters batch.
|
|
|
|
Finksy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1003
|
|
March 11, 2015, 12:59:05 PM |
|
What a load of nonsense! Absolute rubbish!
A PSU is a mining cost whichever way you look at it, I mean, they are not free. <snip>.
Yes because of long useful life a PSU can be consider as depreciating over a longer period of time but - at $20-40usd for the HP 1200w ones and only ~$35 for the IBM 2kw ones their cost is insignificant compared to miner cost. Its quite a bit more than that, you probably need a break out board and how about the 8 - 6 pin cables you need since most miners use PCI-E cables. I think you are sugar coating this quite a bit. Plus PSU's fail when run 24-7 at the power usage we do when mining at the rates we do. I had 3 fail just last year alone. Now the only ones I FK with are the g2 SprNovas by EVGA since they honor the 10 year waranty Breakout boards and cables don't typically wear out. And what kind of PSU's were you seeing fail, ATX or server PSU's? I've had multiple server PSU's run at essentially 100%, 24/7 for over 6 months without a single failure. ATX PSU's on the other hand, I've had 2 fail running at lesser loads. |
|
|
|
|
jmumich
|
|
March 11, 2015, 01:06:28 PM
Last edit: March 11, 2015, 03:49:05 PM by jmumich |
|
I'm working with a guy who'd been trying to get ahold of Bitmain for weeks about a bulk purchase of S5 without a single word in reply from them to either of us. Until I emailed them five minutes after seeing the S5 was back online at $320. When they got back to me 12 hours later (at $419) I was told there was no price break for up to 100 units. So basically if I wanted to lay down on a purchase like would have been very straightforward before the holiday, now we'd be giving them an extra $10K just for the opportunity. I'm sure they're not screwing their "If you need more than 500 S5 at once" customers over but I can't advise my guy to buy a huge lot from them if they're not willing to be reasonable about a test-the-waters batch.
I'm also curious as to whether Bitmain considered the news that 21 Co. (formerly 21e6) is backed by well over $100 million in funding? As I understand it, this company is primarily a mining company, though they have ambitions beyond that. They are employing datacenters and obtaining equipment from somewhere. I understand that Bitmain tries to include projected future difficulty in their pricing model. I don't expect them to share their methodology, but I'm curious as to how reliable it is. For example, and this is great for purchasers of Bitmain's products - anyone who bought an S5 in late Dec. or January did pretty well for themselves. They already have what they mined, which is more than electricity costs in almost all cases, and the S5 they purchased has appreciated in value. This is great for the consumer, but tells me that Bitmain's pricing model was not that accurate with respect to the S5. I've been considering (and working in my spare time) on using past data (I've shared some of this work in the speculation forum), industry announcements, past industry announcements and their effect on hashrate increase, and other information to build a model that will estimate the range of future difficulty increases in the short to medium term (1-4 months). The purpose is to inform the miner on equipment purchases, but it can easily translate to a pricing model for manufacturers. I can tell you that it is not an easy task. |
|
|
|
|
|
pekatete
|
|
March 11, 2015, 01:20:30 PM |
|
.....
I understand that Bitmain tries to include projected future difficulty in their pricing model. I don't expect them to share their methodology, but I'm curious as to how reliable it is.
For example, and this is great for purchasers of Bitmain's products - anyone who bought an S5 in late Dec. or January did pretty well for themselves. They already have what they mined, which is more than electricity costs in almost all cases, and the S5 they purchased has appreciated in value. This is great for the consumer, but tells me that Bitmain's pricing model was not that accurate with respect to the S5.
.....
As you've no doubt found out (and stated yourself), it is no easy task to speculate. One gripe with your statement (em-bolded above), you conveniently forget that at that stage they had factored in the real possibility of their competitor going to the foundry in a few months' time (aka btn then and now). It actually not only affirms their model, but more pertinent is that they take into account their customers' ability to make something out of mining in their model. Now, there's something to write about! |
|
|
|
|
jmumich
|
|
March 11, 2015, 03:33:31 PM |
|
.....
I understand that Bitmain tries to include projected future difficulty in their pricing model. I don't expect them to share their methodology, but I'm curious as to how reliable it is.
For example, and this is great for purchasers of Bitmain's products - anyone who bought an S5 in late Dec. or January did pretty well for themselves. They already have what they mined, which is more than electricity costs in almost all cases, and the S5 they purchased has appreciated in value. This is great for the consumer, but tells me that Bitmain's pricing model was not that accurate with respect to the S5.
.....
As you've no doubt found out (and stated yourself), it is no easy task to speculate. One gripe with your statement (em-bolded above), you conveniently forget that at that stage they had factored in the real possibility of their competitor going to the foundry in a few months' time (aka btn then and now). It actually not only affirms their model, but more pertinent is that they take into account their customers' ability to make something out of mining in their model. Now, there's something to write about! I think we're on the same page, though I didn't forget (conveniently or otherwise... if I forget, it is almost always inconvenient) that they take into consideration their competitors, let alone any single competitor. My point is that competitor intelligence is often incomplete and unreliable, as was shown to be the case with this specific competitor. Their pricing model may be (and this is pure speculation, I have no idea how they model their pricing other than what I've gleaned from the forums) putting too much weight on competitor intelligence. |
|
|
|
|
Mikestang
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
|
|
March 11, 2015, 04:38:00 PM |
|
S3++s don't work internationally because they're low density units, making shipping costs just silly. People already go crazy about S5 shipping costs, imagine it 2x worse.
Perfect opportunity to sell S3++ upgrade boards for all those old S1s out there, gathering dust. Just the boards would be cost effective to ship globally. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
toptekk
Member
Offline
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
|
|
March 11, 2015, 04:44:43 PM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
pekatete
|
|
March 11, 2015, 04:48:06 PM |
|
I think we're on the same page, though I didn't forget (conveniently or otherwise... if I forget, it is almost always inconvenient) that they take into consideration their competitors, let alone any single competitor. My point is that competitor intelligence is often incomplete and unreliable, as was shown to be the case with this specific competitor. Their pricing model may be (and this is pure speculation, I have no idea how they model their pricing other than what I've gleaned from the forums) putting too much weight on competitor intelligence.
On the same page are we !? .... that warms the cockles of my heart ! But you are delving into a very gray area, aka what would you consider to be complete, reliable and actionable competitor intelligence? In the same breath I'll add, what would they consider as such? Bear in mind that the only distinction between you and they (aside from the spelling) is they have put down a few million (at the very least) of their hard earned fiat and you .... well, you are in a better position to answer that. But back to the competitor intelligence. They (and everyone that cares) know(s) that next-gen tech is just around the corner. Bitfury (a B2B outfit) have already officially announced one such. The actionable part of intelligence, which is by no means readily attainable from any enterprise that has invested millions of fiat in R&D, is the timing of the going to market before a general announcement. For the bitcoin ASIC industry where next gen tech is literally released more often than usual, I think bitmain got it spot on. Yes, the price rise in the manner it came to be was not a pretty sight, but they were literally caught out by a matter of 20 minutes (or 3 hours at most!), and that on the most guarded of secrets in any industry. In my book, as far as their modelling goes, they can shake any of their collars! |
|
|
|
|
|
Mikestang
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
|
|
March 11, 2015, 05:21:49 PM |
|
These are S3+ upgrades, not S3++. I don't know what the difference in specs is, however. Thinking about it, though, for $100 for that upgrade kit I could just buy a separate S3, then have both the S1 and S3 running. Or buy an S3 and sell the S1 for $10-$15... |
|
|
|
|
toptekk
Member
Offline
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
|
|
March 11, 2015, 05:55:09 PM |
|
These are S3+ upgrades, not S3++. I don't know what the difference in specs is, however. Thinking about it, though, for $100 for that upgrade kit I could just buy a separate S3, then have both the S1 and S3 running. Or buy an S3 and sell the S1 for $10-$15... my bad just noticed there was a new S3 ++ didn't notice the extra + .. sorry etc etc . the way it looks only diff i see is power at the wall 265w i think read some place over what 355w at normal speed. might evn buy one of the s3 ++ at 265 w at the wall not to bad let mine alt coins all day long with the upgraded S3 . |
|
|
|
|
Mikestang
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
|
|
March 11, 2015, 06:00:03 PM |
|
These are S3+ upgrades, not S3++. I don't know what the difference in specs is, however.
Thinking about it, though, for $100 for that upgrade kit I could just buy a separate S3, then have both the S1 and S3 running. Or buy an S3 and sell the S1 for $10-$15...
my bad just noticed there was a new S3 ++ didn't notice the extra + .. sorry etc etc . the way it looks only diff i see is power at the wall 265w i think read some place over what 355w at normal speed. Yea, but why buy an upgrade kit and go through the trouble of swapping boards and stuff if you could spend the same money and get a complete S3 and then sell the old S1? What am I missing here that makes upgrading seem like it's worth it? Any why are there no S1 -> S5 upgrades, don't they use the same case set-up? |
|
|
|
|
toptekk
Member
Offline
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
|
|
March 11, 2015, 06:02:49 PM |
|
These are S3+ upgrades, not S3++. I don't know what the difference in specs is, however.
Thinking about it, though, for $100 for that upgrade kit I could just buy a separate S3, then have both the S1 and S3 running. Or buy an S3 and sell the S1 for $10-$15...
my bad just noticed there was a new S3 ++ didn't notice the extra + .. sorry etc etc . the way it looks only diff i see is power at the wall 265w i think read some place over what 355w at normal speed. Yea, but why buy an upgrade kit and go through the trouble of swapping boards and stuff if you could spend the same money and get a complete S3 and then sell the old S1? What am I missing here that makes upgrading seem like it's worth it? Any why are there no S1 -> S5 upgrades, don't they use the same case set-up? FUN of doing it no other reason , for me it's a lot of fun to upgrade any thing. I just offered that link in case some of the S1 S3 nuts had some old S1 laying around like me. only reason i see for no S1 to S5 heat sinks are little diff on the S5 over the S1 . but it does look like the same lay out . |
|
|
|
|
aztecminer
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
|
|
March 11, 2015, 06:22:59 PM |
|
i'm always watching bitmain website.....like all the time... i am just not sure atm when i am buying more mining hardware.
|
|
|
|
|
aztecminer
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
|
|
March 11, 2015, 06:25:26 PM |
|
These are S3+ upgrades, not S3++. I don't know what the difference in specs is, however.
Thinking about it, though, for $100 for that upgrade kit I could just buy a separate S3, then have both the S1 and S3 running. Or buy an S3 and sell the S1 for $10-$15...
my bad just noticed there was a new S3 ++ didn't notice the extra + .. sorry etc etc . the way it looks only diff i see is power at the wall 265w i think read some place over what 355w at normal speed. Yea, but why buy an upgrade kit and go through the trouble of swapping boards and stuff if you could spend the same money and get a complete S3 and then sell the old S1? What am I missing here that makes upgrading seem like it's worth it? Any why are there no S1 -> S5 upgrades, don't they use the same case set-up? FUN of doing it no other reason , for me it's a lot of fun to upgrade any thing. I just offered that link in case some of the S1 S3 nuts had some old S1 laying around like me. only reason i see for no S1 to S5 heat sinks are little diff on the S5 over the S1 . but it does look like the same lay out . i have several s1's laying around, several s3's still mining (not sure how much longer though), and an entire fleet of corsair power supplies (i have corsair psu's still unopened in the box i got from black furday).. |
|
|
|
|
chiguireitor
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 872
Merit: 1010
Coins, Games & Miners
|
|
March 11, 2015, 06:38:38 PM |
|
[...] still unopened in the box i got from black furday [...]
Kinky! |
|
|
|
|
jmumich
|
|
March 11, 2015, 07:23:54 PM |
|
I think we're on the same page, though I didn't forget (conveniently or otherwise... if I forget, it is almost always inconvenient) that they take into consideration their competitors, let alone any single competitor. My point is that competitor intelligence is often incomplete and unreliable, as was shown to be the case with this specific competitor. Their pricing model may be (and this is pure speculation, I have no idea how they model their pricing other than what I've gleaned from the forums) putting too much weight on competitor intelligence.
On the same page are we !? .... that warms the cockles of my heart ! But you are delving into a very gray area, aka what would you consider to be complete, reliable and actionable competitor intelligence? In the same breath I'll add, what would they consider as such? Bear in mind that the only distinction between you and they (aside from the spelling) is they have put down a few million (at the very least) of their hard earned fiat and you .... well, you are in a better position to answer that. But back to the competitor intelligence. They (and everyone that cares) know(s) that next-gen tech is just around the corner. Bitfury (a B2B outfit) have already officially announced one such. The actionable part of intelligence, which is by no means readily attainable from any enterprise that has invested millions of fiat in R&D, is the timing of the going to market before a general announcement. For the bitcoin ASIC industry where next gen tech is literally released more often than usual, I think bitmain got it spot on. Yes, the price rise in the manner it came to be was not a pretty sight, but they were literally caught out by a matter of 20 minutes (or 3 hours at most!), and that on the most guarded of secrets in any industry. In my book, as far as their modelling goes, they can shake any of their collars! I don't know how I'd react to market intelligence or how much weight I would give it if I were Bitmain. That's their judgment call, not mine. But Bitmain decided to disclose, at least in part, some aspects of their pricing methodology. And it seems that they put quite a bit of weight on market intelligence. Given its unreliability, I simply questioned whether they are putting too much weight. Sure, it's their money invested, not mine, but that doesn't mean that their decision-making process is infallible. The issue is weight, not reliability (though they are related), I never suggested (nor would I) that I can properly distinguish between reliable and unreliable market intelligence, certainly not in this case, given the limited amount of vague* information we received about that intelligence. *I don't mean vague as a complaint - I'm sure it was vague for a reason. |
|
|
|
|
philipma1957
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 4158
Merit: 8042
'The right to privacy matters'
|
|
March 11, 2015, 07:32:03 PM |
|
marketing is everything  yep and if they opened at 439 and dropped to 419 we would all be happy. Or certainly less annoyed. meanwhile people are buying them. |
|
|
|
|
pekatete
|
|
March 11, 2015, 07:46:27 PM |
|
I don't know how I'd react to market intelligence or how much weight I would give it if I were Bitmain. That's their judgment call, not mine. But Bitmain decided to disclose, at least in part, some aspects of their pricing methodology. And it seems that they put quite a bit of weight on market intelligence. Given its unreliability, I simply questioned whether they are putting too much weight. Sure, it's their money invested, not mine, but that doesn't mean that their decision-making process is infallible. The issue is weight, not reliability (though they are related), I never suggested (nor would I) that I can properly distinguish between reliable and unreliable market intelligence, certainly not in this case, given the limited amount of vague* information we received about that intelligence.
*I don't mean vague as a complaint - I'm sure it was vague for a reason.
That response is loaded with indecision, and that is not mentioning your three degrees of market intelligence (weight, reliability, unreliability). But now you have an inkling of what dilemma they face on a daily basis, I am just surprised you are adamant they got it wrong (knowing as you do that hindsight is a wonderful thing). |
|
|
|
|
