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jmumich
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March 11, 2015, 03:33:31 PM |
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.....
I understand that Bitmain tries to include projected future difficulty in their pricing model. I don't expect them to share their methodology, but I'm curious as to how reliable it is.
For example, and this is great for purchasers of Bitmain's products - anyone who bought an S5 in late Dec. or January did pretty well for themselves. They already have what they mined, which is more than electricity costs in almost all cases, and the S5 they purchased has appreciated in value. This is great for the consumer, but tells me that Bitmain's pricing model was not that accurate with respect to the S5.
.....
As you've no doubt found out (and stated yourself), it is no easy task to speculate. One gripe with your statement (em-bolded above), you conveniently forget that at that stage they had factored in the real possibility of their competitor going to the foundry in a few months' time (aka btn then and now). It actually not only affirms their model, but more pertinent is that they take into account their customers' ability to make something out of mining in their model. Now, there's something to write about! I think we're on the same page, though I didn't forget (conveniently or otherwise... if I forget, it is almost always inconvenient) that they take into consideration their competitors, let alone any single competitor. My point is that competitor intelligence is often incomplete and unreliable, as was shown to be the case with this specific competitor. Their pricing model may be (and this is pure speculation, I have no idea how they model their pricing other than what I've gleaned from the forums) putting too much weight on competitor intelligence. |
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Mikestang
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March 11, 2015, 04:38:00 PM |
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S3++s don't work internationally because they're low density units, making shipping costs just silly. People already go crazy about S5 shipping costs, imagine it 2x worse.
Perfect opportunity to sell S3++ upgrade boards for all those old S1s out there, gathering dust. Just the boards would be cost effective to ship globally. |
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toptekk
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March 11, 2015, 04:44:43 PM |
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pekatete
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March 11, 2015, 04:48:06 PM |
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I think we're on the same page, though I didn't forget (conveniently or otherwise... if I forget, it is almost always inconvenient) that they take into consideration their competitors, let alone any single competitor. My point is that competitor intelligence is often incomplete and unreliable, as was shown to be the case with this specific competitor. Their pricing model may be (and this is pure speculation, I have no idea how they model their pricing other than what I've gleaned from the forums) putting too much weight on competitor intelligence.
On the same page are we !? .... that warms the cockles of my heart ! But you are delving into a very gray area, aka what would you consider to be complete, reliable and actionable competitor intelligence? In the same breath I'll add, what would they consider as such? Bear in mind that the only distinction between you and they (aside from the spelling) is they have put down a few million (at the very least) of their hard earned fiat and you .... well, you are in a better position to answer that. But back to the competitor intelligence. They (and everyone that cares) know(s) that next-gen tech is just around the corner. Bitfury (a B2B outfit) have already officially announced one such. The actionable part of intelligence, which is by no means readily attainable from any enterprise that has invested millions of fiat in R&D, is the timing of the going to market before a general announcement. For the bitcoin ASIC industry where next gen tech is literally released more often than usual, I think bitmain got it spot on. Yes, the price rise in the manner it came to be was not a pretty sight, but they were literally caught out by a matter of 20 minutes (or 3 hours at most!), and that on the most guarded of secrets in any industry. In my book, as far as their modelling goes, they can shake any of their collars! |
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Mikestang
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March 11, 2015, 05:21:49 PM |
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These are S3+ upgrades, not S3++. I don't know what the difference in specs is, however. Thinking about it, though, for $100 for that upgrade kit I could just buy a separate S3, then have both the S1 and S3 running. Or buy an S3 and sell the S1 for $10-$15... |
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toptekk
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March 11, 2015, 05:55:09 PM |
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These are S3+ upgrades, not S3++. I don't know what the difference in specs is, however. Thinking about it, though, for $100 for that upgrade kit I could just buy a separate S3, then have both the S1 and S3 running. Or buy an S3 and sell the S1 for $10-$15... my bad just noticed there was a new S3 ++ didn't notice the extra + .. sorry etc etc . the way it looks only diff i see is power at the wall 265w i think read some place over what 355w at normal speed. might evn buy one of the s3 ++ at 265 w at the wall not to bad let mine alt coins all day long with the upgraded S3 . |
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Mikestang
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March 11, 2015, 06:00:03 PM |
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These are S3+ upgrades, not S3++. I don't know what the difference in specs is, however.
Thinking about it, though, for $100 for that upgrade kit I could just buy a separate S3, then have both the S1 and S3 running. Or buy an S3 and sell the S1 for $10-$15...
my bad just noticed there was a new S3 ++ didn't notice the extra + .. sorry etc etc . the way it looks only diff i see is power at the wall 265w i think read some place over what 355w at normal speed. Yea, but why buy an upgrade kit and go through the trouble of swapping boards and stuff if you could spend the same money and get a complete S3 and then sell the old S1? What am I missing here that makes upgrading seem like it's worth it? Any why are there no S1 -> S5 upgrades, don't they use the same case set-up? |
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toptekk
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March 11, 2015, 06:02:49 PM |
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These are S3+ upgrades, not S3++. I don't know what the difference in specs is, however.
Thinking about it, though, for $100 for that upgrade kit I could just buy a separate S3, then have both the S1 and S3 running. Or buy an S3 and sell the S1 for $10-$15...
my bad just noticed there was a new S3 ++ didn't notice the extra + .. sorry etc etc . the way it looks only diff i see is power at the wall 265w i think read some place over what 355w at normal speed. Yea, but why buy an upgrade kit and go through the trouble of swapping boards and stuff if you could spend the same money and get a complete S3 and then sell the old S1? What am I missing here that makes upgrading seem like it's worth it? Any why are there no S1 -> S5 upgrades, don't they use the same case set-up? FUN of doing it no other reason , for me it's a lot of fun to upgrade any thing. I just offered that link in case some of the S1 S3 nuts had some old S1 laying around like me. only reason i see for no S1 to S5 heat sinks are little diff on the S5 over the S1 . but it does look like the same lay out . |
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aztecminer
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March 11, 2015, 06:22:59 PM |
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i'm always watching bitmain website.....like all the time... i am just not sure atm when i am buying more mining hardware.
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aztecminer
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March 11, 2015, 06:25:26 PM |
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These are S3+ upgrades, not S3++. I don't know what the difference in specs is, however.
Thinking about it, though, for $100 for that upgrade kit I could just buy a separate S3, then have both the S1 and S3 running. Or buy an S3 and sell the S1 for $10-$15...
my bad just noticed there was a new S3 ++ didn't notice the extra + .. sorry etc etc . the way it looks only diff i see is power at the wall 265w i think read some place over what 355w at normal speed. Yea, but why buy an upgrade kit and go through the trouble of swapping boards and stuff if you could spend the same money and get a complete S3 and then sell the old S1? What am I missing here that makes upgrading seem like it's worth it? Any why are there no S1 -> S5 upgrades, don't they use the same case set-up? FUN of doing it no other reason , for me it's a lot of fun to upgrade any thing. I just offered that link in case some of the S1 S3 nuts had some old S1 laying around like me. only reason i see for no S1 to S5 heat sinks are little diff on the S5 over the S1 . but it does look like the same lay out . i have several s1's laying around, several s3's still mining (not sure how much longer though), and an entire fleet of corsair power supplies (i have corsair psu's still unopened in the box i got from black furday).. |
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chiguireitor
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Coins, Games & Miners
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March 11, 2015, 06:38:38 PM |
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[...] still unopened in the box i got from black furday [...]
Kinky! |
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jmumich
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March 11, 2015, 07:23:54 PM |
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I think we're on the same page, though I didn't forget (conveniently or otherwise... if I forget, it is almost always inconvenient) that they take into consideration their competitors, let alone any single competitor. My point is that competitor intelligence is often incomplete and unreliable, as was shown to be the case with this specific competitor. Their pricing model may be (and this is pure speculation, I have no idea how they model their pricing other than what I've gleaned from the forums) putting too much weight on competitor intelligence.
On the same page are we !? .... that warms the cockles of my heart ! But you are delving into a very gray area, aka what would you consider to be complete, reliable and actionable competitor intelligence? In the same breath I'll add, what would they consider as such? Bear in mind that the only distinction between you and they (aside from the spelling) is they have put down a few million (at the very least) of their hard earned fiat and you .... well, you are in a better position to answer that. But back to the competitor intelligence. They (and everyone that cares) know(s) that next-gen tech is just around the corner. Bitfury (a B2B outfit) have already officially announced one such. The actionable part of intelligence, which is by no means readily attainable from any enterprise that has invested millions of fiat in R&D, is the timing of the going to market before a general announcement. For the bitcoin ASIC industry where next gen tech is literally released more often than usual, I think bitmain got it spot on. Yes, the price rise in the manner it came to be was not a pretty sight, but they were literally caught out by a matter of 20 minutes (or 3 hours at most!), and that on the most guarded of secrets in any industry. In my book, as far as their modelling goes, they can shake any of their collars! I don't know how I'd react to market intelligence or how much weight I would give it if I were Bitmain. That's their judgment call, not mine. But Bitmain decided to disclose, at least in part, some aspects of their pricing methodology. And it seems that they put quite a bit of weight on market intelligence. Given its unreliability, I simply questioned whether they are putting too much weight. Sure, it's their money invested, not mine, but that doesn't mean that their decision-making process is infallible. The issue is weight, not reliability (though they are related), I never suggested (nor would I) that I can properly distinguish between reliable and unreliable market intelligence, certainly not in this case, given the limited amount of vague* information we received about that intelligence. *I don't mean vague as a complaint - I'm sure it was vague for a reason. |
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philipma1957
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'The right to privacy matters'
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March 11, 2015, 07:32:03 PM |
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marketing is everything  yep and if they opened at 439 and dropped to 419 we would all be happy. Or certainly less annoyed. meanwhile people are buying them. |
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pekatete
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March 11, 2015, 07:46:27 PM |
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I don't know how I'd react to market intelligence or how much weight I would give it if I were Bitmain. That's their judgment call, not mine. But Bitmain decided to disclose, at least in part, some aspects of their pricing methodology. And it seems that they put quite a bit of weight on market intelligence. Given its unreliability, I simply questioned whether they are putting too much weight. Sure, it's their money invested, not mine, but that doesn't mean that their decision-making process is infallible. The issue is weight, not reliability (though they are related), I never suggested (nor would I) that I can properly distinguish between reliable and unreliable market intelligence, certainly not in this case, given the limited amount of vague* information we received about that intelligence.
*I don't mean vague as a complaint - I'm sure it was vague for a reason.
That response is loaded with indecision, and that is not mentioning your three degrees of market intelligence (weight, reliability, unreliability). But now you have an inkling of what dilemma they face on a daily basis, I am just surprised you are adamant they got it wrong (knowing as you do that hindsight is a wonderful thing). |
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Subw
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March 11, 2015, 07:50:55 PM |
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only reason i see for no S1 to S5 heat sinks are little diff on the S5 over the S1 .
25 Jan: Please pay 1.4666btc to below address for 1 set of S5 kit including 1 control board + 2 hash board without heatsink + 2 cables. |
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jmumich
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March 11, 2015, 08:06:58 PM |
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I don't know how I'd react to market intelligence or how much weight I would give it if I were Bitmain. That's their judgment call, not mine. But Bitmain decided to disclose, at least in part, some aspects of their pricing methodology. And it seems that they put quite a bit of weight on market intelligence. Given its unreliability, I simply questioned whether they are putting too much weight. Sure, it's their money invested, not mine, but that doesn't mean that their decision-making process is infallible. The issue is weight, not reliability (though they are related), I never suggested (nor would I) that I can properly distinguish between reliable and unreliable market intelligence, certainly not in this case, given the limited amount of vague* information we received about that intelligence.
*I don't mean vague as a complaint - I'm sure it was vague for a reason.
That response is loaded with indecision, and that is not mentioning your three degrees of market intelligence (weight, reliability, unreliability). But now you have an inkling of what dilemma they face on a daily basis, I am just surprised you are adamant they got it wrong (knowing as you do that hindsight is a wonderful thing). I'm surprised I'm adamant that they got it wrong as well, that doesn't sound like the message I was trying to convey. |
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pekatete
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March 11, 2015, 09:03:52 PM |
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I don't know how I'd react to market intelligence or how much weight I would give it if I were Bitmain. That's their judgment call, not mine. But Bitmain decided to disclose, at least in part, some aspects of their pricing methodology. And it seems that they put quite a bit of weight on market intelligence. Given its unreliability, I simply questioned whether they are putting too much weight. Sure, it's their money invested, not mine, but that doesn't mean that their decision-making process is infallible. The issue is weight, not reliability (though they are related), I never suggested (nor would I) that I can properly distinguish between reliable and unreliable market intelligence, certainly not in this case, given the limited amount of vague* information we received about that intelligence.
*I don't mean vague as a complaint - I'm sure it was vague for a reason.
That response is loaded with indecision, and that is not mentioning your three degrees of market intelligence (weight, reliability, unreliability). But now you have an inkling of what dilemma they face on a daily basis, I am just surprised you are adamant they got it wrong (knowing as you do that hindsight is a wonderful thing). I'm surprised I'm adamant that they got it wrong as well, that doesn't sound like the message I was trying to convey. Hmmm! Just the one thing though .... 1. When batch 5 & 6 were launched, they were priced at $320 ( BTC 1.14 at the time aka $280.7 per BTC1). 2. After "confirming" their intel, bitmain ticked the price to $411 ( i.e BTC1.464 at the above rate) Bitmain justified the price rise based (as far as they have said) purely on that intel and the effect / implications it had on the previously projected bitcoin network difficulty rise in the short to medium term. We have to assume here that the market as a whole did not have that intel (and that was borne out with mini rally in BTC value after the initial price rise and bitcoin releasing that intel). Here's the punchline. If the market as a whole was working perfectly, and the (previously) projected network difficulty rise on the back of the 0.03W/Gh (or something like that) was factored into the value of BTC, then the current rate to the $ should be ~$365 and not the current ~$295. I suppose I can reserve judgement on whether it was the right level of price rise till the first bactch of the units ship on the 30th coupled with if the value of BTC nears / equates to $365, but when rigs start shipping it usually results (rightfully) in a dip in BTC value! Jury is OUT! (I'll not go to the current $419 price as the above anology will suffice for my argument) |
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coinits
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011110000110110101110010
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March 11, 2015, 09:10:19 PM |
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Looks like some people got it in their mind to get revenge on Bitmain. I got this email:
Dear Bitmain Customer,
This morning we received a concerning email from a group of hackers threatening Bitmain and our services with a DDoS attack and demanding a ransom payment to prevent the attack. Bitmain is committed to providing the best service possible to our users, and will not invite future attacks of this sort by giving in to the demands of hackers.
The hackers have demonstrated that they do possess the capability to execute a DDoS and that this is not an entirely empty threat, although we do not know the full extent of their capabilities. During the next few days, Bitmaintech.com, AntPool, AntPool.com, and&nbs p;Hashnest.com may experience intermittent outages. Our team is working hard to ensure that the effects of any possible attack will be as minimal as possible.
For those customers mining on AntPool, please make sure that you have configured your backup pools properly in the event that you are unable to access AntPool.
For HashNest users, mining payouts will continue as usual and there is no need to worry about lost revenue.
For sales, if you are unable to access our main website, you may contact us directly at info@bitmaintech.com.
Thank you for bearing with us during this time.
All the best,
Bitmain |
Jump you fuckers! | The thing about smart motherfuckers is they sound like crazy motherfuckers to dumb motherfuckers. | My sig space for rent for 0.01 btc per week.
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