any plans to increase max kelly? something for people who want to "gamble it up" by investing
I was thinking about a 25x kelly or a 50x kelly.
I don´t really see any disadvantages in introducing this, because you´ve already programmed it anyways for
the already available kelly multipliers.
(any users who think this is unnecessary or too risky can of course keep their current multiplier)
I have had a few people mention it in chat. I wasn't sure how popular it would be.
If enough people reply here then yeah I could change it. Not sure what the max should be though so feel free to suggest.
i just see disaster. the site is already running an average of what, a 6-7x kelly? if that amped up to 30-40x kelly and some rich dude stepped in he could wipe out the house in a few bets without even getting that lucky.
like i said before though, the house max profit is kind of a silly point right now as no one ever stands to make a bet to win it without different gaming options available. that i think could really draw attention to some.
I honestly don´t see a disaster.
Let me explain why in 2 scenarios.
Scenario 1 (imo most likely):
Some small investors with the desire to "gamble it up" invest a few BTC combined put it at 50x kelly and either lose or profit by taking that risk.
Most huge investors recognize the risk of running a 50x kelly and keep their investments with more conservative kelly multipliers.
I think it will rather become a popular method of gambling (but on the investors side which has the mathematical edge!)
A thing that would easily attract more users for Pocketrockets!
With the current situation you have to invest more than 2 BTC just to own more than 0.1% of the house (let´s just assume everyone
runs 10x kelly multiplier for calculating purposes).
(edit: typo! I meant 0.1 % of the house)
With my new system most big investors still keep a reasonable kelly multiplier (let´s say 10 for calculating purposes - i know a reasonable multiplier is probably lower!) but some small user can now participate with 0.4 BTC and have 1 % of the house.
This change therefore has 2 huge advantages compared to the current system:
-entry barrier for new investors is lowered -> more users, more turnover, win-win for everyone
-ability for investors to try to "gamble it up", "increase their % of the bankroll by playing the investors side (which has the mathematical edge)
And the main disadvantage in theory would be more work for Dean to add this feature. But as said in my initial proposal Dean has it already programmed!
It´s probably 10 minutes of work to add 2 more multipliers.
As said in my initial proposal I would introduce 25x and 50x. Or maybe make it 20x, 25x and 50x.
I wouldn´t add even higher multipliers, I think 50x is already very unreasonable
(but still interesting for above mentioned reasons)
Now to situation 2.
Scenario 2 (unlikely):
theskillzdatklls "disaster" happens. In my opinion not very likely for various reasons:
-the max. profit won´t increase that much, because huge investors keep a reasonable multiplier and only small investors choose the 50x option
-big whales aren´t around as much as back in the day when BTC was cheap and lots of early adopters had coins to splash around
-max. profit is already higher than 50k $ (and it would be higher in your scenario), there are not many people who are able
to afford gambling with these amounts of money in general
I know you have a poker background and even in poker highstakes games are drying up and sky-highstakes are dead.
The biggest games on Pokerstars are 200/400 (except 8-game I guess, but let´s ignore this for now) and they basically never (!) run.
These games have a 40000 $ max buy-in.
In this games it´s possible to play +EV.
Now back to Dice on PocketRockets. We would need a player willing to bet more than 50000 $ (higher than the highest buy-in on pokerstars)
on a single bet (I ignore luckbox bets where someone bets a 100x payout bet and wins, I just assume a 49,5 % bet).
And he would have to do it a few times and win in order to wipe out the bankroll.
In this Dice game it´s impossible to play+EV.
All in all very unlikely in my opinion.
And now to the most interesting point:
Let´s just assume some "nakowa" kind of guy manages the highly unlikely thing and wipes out the entire bankroll
That would be the best thing that ever happened to bitcoin dice and especially PocketRockets!
Of course some investors (and probably you, because I assume you are a large investor) would be pretty pissed about
losing their entire investment / huge part of investment.
But the news that somebody won a huge chunk of the bankroll of a dice-site would be great advertising. Just imagine the articles
that some guy won over 2500 bitcoin by playing dice! The amount of new players trying out dice and the advertising value of this would
be fucking tremendous
The amount of users would increase, the turnover would increase and eventually Dean and all investors would profit
from increased activity.
But again, that´s very unlikely and I think scenario 1 is far more likely!
(to summarize it again -> most big investors keep reasonable kelly multiplier, some small guys "gamble it up", barrier of entry is lowered for newcomers in investing)
Sorry for the long post but I think it would be great for everyone if Dean would decide to offer
(of course he can decide on which exact multipliers to offer, but I think it would be highly beneficial for everyone to add at least 1 or 2 higher
Make it happen Dean