100 bitcoins. Will I be a millionaire by 2020?

[Bagatell]

We can use it, and say +/- 2000%

I'm sure the models accuracy will improve as the price approaches $500,000 or so.

[oblivi]

to be a millionaire with 100 BTC the price should rise higher than $10,000 per BTC to only have 1 mil. and i highly doubt that the price can rise that high by 2020.

Oh ye of little faith.

-snip-

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.msg9293350#msg9293350

This regression curve has too little input data to make any realistic predictions for the future. If you look how wrong the predictions were in comparison to the reality so far (2081% above the regression line, 81% below of the regression line), you shouldn't expect that this line will be any close to the real price in the future.

If you go back to the early posts and see how they predicted Bitcoin would never reach dollar parity, let alone $10, you can see how we aren't just ready to predict Bitcoin. So it could be anything, from 1k, to 10k, to 100k. Keep your eyes open.

[infofront]

What people aren't realizing is that if you do become a Millionaire in Bitcoin, the second you cash out you will have to pay a 40% capital gains tax, which will leave you with only $600k. Socialism FTW!

anyone who ends up with over a million  or several million $ worth of btc could easily fly to switzerland or the emirates or  china  etc or wherever there is no or very little tax to be paid

trying to bring the cash back home would be stupid though so i would probably live in an alternative country than give up half my money for tax ..........

A million isn't really enough to do much these days. 5 million is probably barely enough if you live frugally* and you are single. If you have a family, you'll probably need 20M+.


*Frugally, in the context of being upper-class. No $1000 bottles of wine everyday, no caviar and truffles with wagyu everyday, no vacation villas around the world, etc.

$5m and live frugally? Over 40 years (assuming I die at 82) that's $2400 a week. That is far from frugal my friend!

For a family of 4, not living in a major city, I'd say that's enough to catapult them to an upper middle class lifestyle.

[DonQuijote]

you will be millonarie but no in 2020

[uki]

to be a millionaire with 100 BTC the price should rise higher than $10,000 per BTC to only have 1 mil. and i highly doubt that the price can rise that high by 2020.

Oh ye of little faith.

-snip-

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.msg9293350#msg9293350

This regression curve has too little input data to make any realistic predictions for the future. If you look how wrong the predictions were in comparison to the reality so far (2081% above the regression line, 81% below of the regression line), you shouldn't expect that this line will be any close to the real price in the future.

If you go back to the early posts and see how they predicted Bitcoin would never reach dollar parity, let alone $10, you can see how we aren't just ready to predict Bitcoin. So it could be anything, from 1k, to 10k, to 100k. Keep your eyes open.

It is much easier to grow something from nothing to $100 a piece (many start-ups for example), but it is much more difficult to move from $100 (level of magnitude of Bitcoin now) another 100 fold. It is called effect of scale. That is when using logarithmic regression to approximate the bitcoin price may fail, as simply the speed adoption may be to small to keep up with that trend.

[picolo]

you will be millonarie but no in 2020

I think he will be before 2020.

[WhalingWhales]

you will be millonarie but no in 2020

I think he will be before 2020.

Explain more my serial spamming friend, why would we be millionaires before 2020 i am very curious? I have my doubts that we will ever get to anywhere near where you lot believe it will. Who is going to buy a bitcoin for $10,000 i know i begrudge paying over $250 there is not enough need for it to go to them levels, if it becomes needed then the sky is the limit but the truth is it is not needed yet.

[JohanM]

I don't think many people realize just how much money already exists.
To give you an idea: the ECB is creating between now and next 2 year 1000 billion Euro out of nothing, thats 1e12 euros. All this only will cause some minor inflation of some percentagepoints.
As a comparison in 2 years time about 2.6 million btc are created. Divide those 2 and you get a really big number of euros per bitcoin.

This is just to show what could happen if bitcoin would be accepted as a curreny next to the euro or usd. The value would rise immensly (and not to 100k, but to several million per btc).
Will this happen? Or will the btc value just linger or go to zero ? Nobody can tell you.
For me the main reason for a rise would be some external event triggering this: major European country going bust, even events with Greece or end of Eurozone could make things moving VERY quickly.
If that happens the financial world could shift enourmous amounts of money very quickly. I think now several of them are just slowy accumulating in case of.
To be able to absorp the rise, the bitcoin protocol needs to be readyto play in the major leage and lots of development still needs to be done. But I think that is coming along nicely.

So yes I think 100 bitcoin will be a lot of money. It will in fact be a huge amount of money. When is difficult to predict.
Also when btc starts rising it will be immensly difficult to keep all that 100 btc together. There's just no way somebody can keep his nerves when seeing btc rise to 1000, then a few thousand, and so on.
Everybody will be tempted to sell off some (or even a major part) of it.
We've seen that happen in the rise from 0.01 to 30 and then again from 2 to 1000.

As for the value of the bitcoin being a too large number (it IS a psychological barrier if the value would be several 1000 or 10000 or 100000). You can allways revert to using the unit of mBTC, µBTC or even 1 Satoshi)

[ekissane]

I don't think many people realize just how much money already exists.
To give you an idea: the ECB is creating between now and next 2 year 1000 billion Euro out of nothing, thats 1e12 euros. All this only will cause some minor inflation of some percentagepoints.
As a comparison in 2 years time about 2.6 million btc are created. Divide those 2 and you get a really big number of euros per bitcoin.

This is just to show what could happen if bitcoin would be accepted as a curreny next to the euro or usd. The value would rise immensly (and not to 100k, but to several million per btc).
Will this happen? Or will the btc value just linger or go to zero ? Nobody can tell you.
For me the main reason for a rise would be some external event triggering this: major European country going bust, even events with Greece or end of Eurozone could make things moving VERY quickly.
If that happens the financial world could shift enourmous amounts of money very quickly. I think now several of them are just slowy accumulating in case of.
To be able to absorp the rise, the bitcoin protocol needs to be readyto play in the major leage and lots of development still needs to be done. But I think that is coming along nicely.

So yes I think 100 bitcoin will be a lot of money. It will in fact be a huge amount of money. When is difficult to predict.
Also when btc starts rising it will be immensly difficult to keep all that 100 btc together. There's just no way somebody can keep his nerves when seeing btc rise to 1000, then a few thousand, and so on.
Everybody will be tempted to sell off some (or even a major part) of it.
We've seen that happen in the rise from 0.01 to 30 and then again from 2 to 1000.

As for the value of the bitcoin being a too large number (it IS a psychological barrier if the value would be several 1000 or 10000 or 100000). You can allways revert to using the unit of mBTC, µBTC or even 1 Satoshi)

I think the same.  I think a major financial meltdown will precipitate a huge bitcoin price explosion.  And I think that is inevitable.  Several million per bitcoin?  Now that would be cool. ;-)

[coinableS]

you will be millonarie but no in 2020

I think he will be before 2020.

Explain more my serial spamming friend, why would we be millionaires before 2020 i am very curious? I have my doubts that we will ever get to anywhere near where you lot believe it will. Who is going to buy a bitcoin for $10,000 i know i begrudge paying over $250 there is not enough need for it to go to them levels, if it becomes needed then the sky is the limit but the truth is it is not needed yet.

No one is going to buy a bitcoin for $10,000.
They will be buying 100 bits for 1 dollar.  That's if we see large adoption and demand.

[johnyj]

It depends on how much of those excessive cash reserve will be used to pump the bitcoin price, now it is more than 3 trillion

[Frequency]

my goal (2cents) is to own by 2020:

   2.1  BTC done              (own 10.000.000/1 part of ever existing BTC ever)

    21  BTC done              (own   1.000.000/1 part of ever existing BTC ever)

   210 BTC almost there    (own      100.000/1 part of ever existing BTC ever)

 2100 BTC "most wanted goal in my life" own 10.000/1 part of all BTC ever by 2020

All these "coins" come with an extra 0,11111111 satoshi's units so you'll be a billionair by then 








 
Only invest and hodl what u can afford to lose!!

[techgeek]

This is based on current history, so back in 2012? I a particpated in bitcoin. Yay!

Fast forward 3 years its now 2015, and its still the same rates back in 2012. Hovering $200 range goes up then still hovers back in $200 range.

The question would be is, what will make bitcoin price to spike up drastically =  ??

As for the fiat comment on the fiat system, thats old story. Which will win "eventually" = dreaming much to my eyes.

The Americans who pump and dump their own dollar dont care about exploding in our faces because time and time again we seen another bail out.

[xmasdobo]

you will be millonarie but no in 2020

I think he will be before 2020.

Explain more my serial spamming friend, why would we be millionaires before 2020 i am very curious? I have my doubts that we will ever get to anywhere near where you lot believe it will. Who is going to buy a bitcoin for $10,000 i know i begrudge paying over $250 there is not enough need for it to go to them levels, if it becomes needed then the sky is the limit but the truth is it is not needed yet.

For the 1000000000000000th fucking time: you don't need to buy entire amounts of bitcoin. You as much fiat you want to convert to Bitcoin, simple as that.

[croato]

Anything is possible with Bitcoin but i dont think that will happen so soon. In my opinion, Bitcoin could reach 5 digits till 2020. but only due to some insane pump. Stable five digits price will be here but not so fast.

[Bagatell]

How come all you guys saying OP wont make it by 2020 have nothing to back up what you say? Got any theories or charts to support your feelings?

[HarmonLi]

It just struck me again that it really doesn't matter how the price behaves theses days in terms of '1$ up' or '1$ down' or whether you have 1 BTC, 10 BTC or 100 BTC. In 2020 you may be rich in either case.

[Biro Bob]

I have 100 bitcoins. Its 2015. I'm already a millionaire... Do I win £5?

[Dafar]

It just struck me again that it really doesn't matter how the price behaves theses days in terms of '1$ up' or '1$ down' or whether you have 1 BTC, 10 BTC or 100 BTC. In 2020 you may be rich in either case.

MAYBE with 100 BTC... but certainly not with 1 or 10 BTC lol

[CoinCidental]

I have 100 bitcoins. Its 2015. I'm already a millionaire... Do I win £5?

No ,because a million isnt much thesedays
there isnt even a small  house in my area for under a million

it takes several million to have a good life thesedays especially if you have a wife and kids