100 bitcoins. Will I be a millionaire by 2020?

[oblivi]

Bitcoin is already too big to fail, even without mainstream adoption it will still be used for porn, gambling, tax evasion, hiding money from divorce attorneys  and a million other darknet uses....

doubt that.

Doubt what. If you have been here for a while and still haven't understood the objective fact of how BTC will NOT fail, then you just can't be saved.

[Bit_Happy]

Bitcoin is already too big to fail, even without mainstream adoption it will still be used for porn, gambling, tax evasion, hiding money from divorce attorneys  and a million other darknet uses....

doubt that.

Doubt what. If you have been here for a while and still haven't understood the objective fact of how BTC will NOT fail, then you just can't be saved.

Bitcoin has a great chance of success, but there is still a real possibility of negative results (no matter how small), we could still go either way.

[jaredboice]

By 2020, I think you'll be a millionaire with one tenth of that.  2020 should bring Bitcoin somewhere close to $100,000 in today's value.  Even if I'm wrong by a factor of 2 or 3, I'll still be very happy about it

[NorrisK]

By 2020, I think you'll be a millionaire with one tenth of that.  2020 should bring Bitcoin somewhere close to $100,000 in today's value.  Even if I'm wrong by a factor of 2 or 3, I'll still be very happy about it

You should be realistic. That's only possible if the exponential growth of the past years can keep up. Considering the market cap that comes with it, I would count on being a millionaire by 2020 with 10 coins.

[futureofbitcoin]

By 2020, I think you'll be a millionaire with one tenth of that.  2020 should bring Bitcoin somewhere close to $100,000 in today's value.  Even if I'm wrong by a factor of 2 or 3, I'll still be very happy about it

You should be realistic. That's only possible if the exponential growth of the past years can keep up. Considering the market cap that comes with it, I would count on being a millionaire by 2020 with 10 coins.

YOu mean you wouldn't, right?

I'm a pretty big dreamy bull, but I wouldn't either. I wouldn't completely discard the possibility, I think it's more likely than winning the jackpot in a national lottery. But 100 coins >= 1M USD isn't that farfetched, and about as likely as guessing a dice roll, IMO. Maybe even more than that.

[nor9865]

By 2020, I think you'll be a millionaire with one tenth of that.  2020 should bring Bitcoin somewhere close to $100,000 in today's value.  Even if I'm wrong by a factor of 2 or 3, I'll still be very happy about it

You should be realistic. That's only possible if the exponential growth of the past years can keep up. Considering the market cap that comes with it, I would count on being a millionaire by 2020 with 10 coins.

YOu mean you wouldn't, right?

I'm a pretty big dreamy bull, but I wouldn't either. I wouldn't completely discard the possibility, I think it's more likely than winning the jackpot in a national lottery. But 100 coins >= 1M USD isn't that farfetched, and about as likely as guessing a dice roll, IMO. Maybe even more than that.

I think btc will reach about $500 sustained price by 2020. The more people that are made aware of its possibilities usually end up at least trying out the service. I would imagine at least half of it continue their research for years to come with btc.

[Bagatell]

I think btc will reach about $500 sustained price by 2020.

I think you're wrong by several orders of magnitude in one direction or the other. i.e. $50,000 or $5.

[Biodom]

I think btc will reach about $500 sustained price by 2020.

I think you're wrong by several orders of magnitude in one direction or the other. i.e. $50,000 or $5.

I agree with the latter post, although not necessarily 50K, could be 10K-50K or $5
Reason#1: $500 is way too little for serious transactions as market cap of ALL bitcoins would be less than 10bil (19.5-19.6 mil BTC in 2020 X $500).
Serious currencies are trading in trillions (total ~$5 trillion a day)
At 50K bitcoin will be ~950 bil, still not enough to support major currencies trading, but getting there.
Reason#2: i don't think that serious exchanges can survive on a single measly 10b asset price item. We have multiple exchanges being worked on.
If it fails, then $5 is much more likely than $500

[futureofbitcoin]

Yeah, I think it's very unlikely bitcoin will sustain a value in the hundreds. It'll either be really low or decently high. It's amazing how unimaginative people are, thinking that because it's 200 now, it'll remain 200 forever. Not gonna happen.

[futureofbitcoin]

1. See: velocity of money.*

2.There's definitely some suspect logic in "many exchanges being built, thus price must rise to support them."
*If the 2.7 tps screw-up ever gets patched, that is...

Ah, I see! Because it takes a much longer time to trade a physical BTCeanie BTCabie, that's why it's worth a lot more than BTC... You're a freaking genius!

[Biodom]

I think btc will reach about $500 sustained price by 2020.

I think you're wrong by several orders of magnitude in one direction or the other. i.e. $50,000 or $5.

I agree with the latter post, although not necessarily 50K, could be 10K-50K or $5
Reason#1: $500 is way too little for serious transactions as market cap of ALL bitcoins would be less than 10bil (19.5-19.6 mil BTC in 2020 X $500).
Serious currencies are trading in trillions (total ~$5 trillion a day)
At 50K bitcoin will be ~950 bil, still not enough to support major currencies trading, but getting there.
Reason#2: i don't think that serious exchanges can survive on a single measly 10b asset price item. We have multiple exchanges being worked on.
If it fails, then $5 is much more likely than $500

1. See: velocity of money.*

2.There's definitely some suspect logic in "many exchanges being built, thus price must rise to support them."
*If the 2.7 tps screw-up ever gets patched, that is...

1. i don't see a contradiction because total US stock market value is 22 tril, US bond market 37 tril. These are large sinks of value, some small % of which might be represented by bitcoin eventually, hence not all bitcoin will be available to exchanges.
2. if you build it they will come...

Finally, I see a nonzero possibility of bitcoin failing. It's all or none scenario, and i don't see people investing significant % of their wealth in bitcoin, at least not yet.
My comment was re price being relatively stable and behaving like a stock. The main point is that it won't.

[thejaytiesto]

I think btc will reach about $500 sustained price by 2020.

I think you're wrong by several orders of magnitude in one direction or the other. i.e. $50,000 or $5.

It will never crash for obivous reasons, but 50K seems too far fetched on that limited amount of time. My take is that by about 2025 we'll be at around 10 times the ATH (12K)

[bananaControl]

I think btc will reach about $500 sustained price by 2020.

I think you're wrong by several orders of magnitude in one direction or the other. i.e. $50,000 or $5.

It will never crash for obivous reasons, but 50K seems too far fetched on that limited amount of time. My take is that by about 2025 we'll be at around 10 times the ATH (12K)

And just what exactly are those obvious reasons? Of course it could fail and the price crash to almost nothing. Bitcoin is still very early in the development phase so anything could happen.

Bitcoin is binary, it will either fade to nothing or be absolutely astronomical in price.

[manselr]

I think btc will reach about $500 sustained price by 2020.

I think you're wrong by several orders of magnitude in one direction or the other. i.e. $50,000 or $5.

It will never crash for obivous reasons, but 50K seems too far fetched on that limited amount of time. My take is that by about 2025 we'll be at around 10 times the ATH (12K)

And just what exactly are those obvious reasons? Of course it could fail and the price crash to almost nothing. Bitcoin is still very early in the development phase so anything could happen.

Bitcoin is binary, it will either fade to nothing or be absolutely astronomical in price.

We are getting more and more big names interested on a daily basis. Latest is god damn NASDAQ man, can't you see what's going on? You are completely blinded by the current low price, and you'll be even more blind if it keeps going lower for a while. Poor souls.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

By 2020, I think you'll be a millionaire with one tenth of that.  2020 should bring Bitcoin somewhere close to $100,000 in today's value.  Even if I'm wrong by a factor of 2 or 3, I'll still be very happy about it

only if dollar is about to get default

[vvv8]

I would post some knowledge, but i'm too cool 4 dat

[Amph]

I think btc will reach about $500 sustained price by 2020.

I think you're wrong by several orders of magnitude in one direction or the other. i.e. $50,000 or $5.

It will never crash for obivous reasons, but 50K seems too far fetched on that limited amount of time. My take is that by about 2025 we'll be at around 10 times the ATH (12K)

consider that by that time(2020) only 1-2 million coins will be left, so the price must increase by an enormous amount, it's not linear for sure, it's exponential

[Amph]

[ ... ]
consider that by that time(2020) only 1-2 million coins will be left, so the price must increase by an enormous amount, it's not linear for sure, it's exponential

Mined coins != coins available on the market. The number of (potentially) available coins is (all the coins in existence) + (coins mined today).
limited supply doesn't make things worth more in itself, there must also be demand.
BTC price today is ~75% less than it was a year and a half ago - not because more coins are being mined, but because no one wants to pay more than $237 a coin.

i know that you did not understand, i was considering a scenario where only those new coins would be available, because dumped from miners, the existing ones are always moving, but it doesn't mean that they are always available

also many are holding and many coins are not available because of that, i suspect that from the 14M total coins in circulation today, only a tiny fraction are changing the hands of their owner(this is another reason why we are stuck at 240), so saying "all the coin inexistence + coins mined" is utterly wrong

btc price today should not be compared with a fake pump , 1200 peak never happened it was all fabricated ad hoc

[Amph]

it was a fake pump raised by a bot called willy, it is expected that some noobs have ridden that wave together with chinese, but it was all articulated, for sure it wasn't a natural grow because of better adoption, also the fact that started all suddently make me wonder even more

and how the price get lower with time? doesn't make sense seeing the limited supply, not to mention the coins that are lost forever

we are now in the same position of april 2013, we are just re-starting from there, as that pump never happened like i said before

[futureofbitcoin]

*non-troll*

While I agree with Amph's standpoint, I think he lost the argument... by far.

The thing is though, you can't just look at it that way. VCs normally expect returns in 5-10 years. If 2013 was when VC money first entered, it's only been 2 years. Give it another 3-7 years, and who knows.

It's like looking at an elementary student, and saying he can never be a world class swimmer. Way too slow. Well, guess what. He is still growing, and improving his speed.

Will bitcoin survive? Who knows. But to simply look only at price is not the answer. If that was so, it never would have reached $2 when it was $1.