100 bitcoins. Will I be a millionaire by 2020?

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

It is my goal to get 100 bitcoins then hodl for between 3-5-10 years. I just hope bitcoin stays low enough for a couple of years so I can get as many as I cam.

You need 800 coins. See the discussion here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=946938.0 . Depending on your assumptions about the future, you might need as little as 8 coins. But why take the risk? :-)

Interesting read, but personally I think someone would need more. I guess it depends how long someone is willing to wait for bitcoin to hit the mainstream (if that happens).

100 btc right now is equal to a midrange car. If i was to make a choice, i would definitely buy btc instead of a car, unless you absolutely need a new one.
I see people all around driving BMW and Mercedez knowing for a fact that they don't have much money. In my opinion, it is a foolish errand, but most people would disagree.

Some people rather have social rewards 1st then the financials, which is a disaster waiting to happen.

Similar to going to a casino going all-in and losing on one hand.

I guess, trading bitcoin is a kind of that all-in casino generally

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[maxll]

No. 2016.

[damiano]

$10,000 per coin seems like a nice amount, is it possible? Imo no I don't think it is and saying that I don't believe 100 coins will be worth a $ million. I would aim for 1000 coin by 2020 of before which has a high chance of making you a millionaire or at least very close to.

[smith coins]

I think it is a good invest, of course. But you should hold your bitcoin for enough long time , at least 5 years.
In short time, it is difficult to predict its value. But bitcoin will be more valuable in the long run.

[Alley]

In 2020 we will have a 6.25 btc block reward.  But for a $10k coin $9 million a day would have to flow into the ecosystem.  That seems like a stretch.  Maybe in 2024.

[Nahl]

i'm still doubt in 2020 that bitcoin prices will be rise more than $1000 and i think for the next 5 years only 100 btc is won't be enough to make you be a millionaire

[Bitcoin Explorer]

Only risk what you can bear to lose. If you're willing to risk it(considering your can sustain yourself through other sources of income), it may be worthwhile, but as someone already mentioned, by 2020, you can either become a millionaire or have literally nothing.

Exactly. Don't go selling your house for bitcoin (unless you have another one ) But it's certainly a good bet to at least put your discretionary income into it.

Yeah. Partly correct though it is quite risky.

[gentlemand]

In 2020 we will have a 6.25 btc block reward.  But for a $10k coin $9 million a day would have to flow into the ecosystem.  That seems like a stretch.  Maybe in 2024.

Think global. The world probably spends more than $9 million a day on intimate wipes.

[pooya87]

honestly i don't think we can reach prices above $10000 by 2020 so you can be a millionaire by 2020 by holding 100 BTC.
i think the bitcoin price is going to be much more that what it is right now but to reach a ridiculously high price i think it is not possible. and i personally prefer to do different stuff with my money rather than keeping it hold up in somewhere and not spending it.

Do you have anything to give credence to you thoughts?

I think you're wrong because:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.0

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.0

because all of the links are about money supply inflation, although it is relevant to the price you can not directly connect it to how the price will be and say it can reach 10,000 USD.

honestly i agree with what OgNasty said. and since i am not seeing any mass acceptance i can not accept that bitcoin can reach 10K$.

when there is no indication of big payment processing services like paypal or amazon, etc accepting bitcoin and instead we see things like these every day:

MasterCard: Digital Currency’s Risks Outweigh the Benefits (2015)
MasterCard Executive Argues Bitcoin Can't Be Trusted (2014)
Bitcoin Will Be Used For Illegal Transactions
FBI Fears Bitcoin's Popularity with Criminals

i don't see any indication of price rising to those big numbers anytime.

p.s. i must add that although i said all the negative stuff here, i don't believe that it is all bad, and am not trying to post a bitcoin is doomed reply thingy.

Do you have anything to give credence to you thoughts?

No one ever does that. It would be nice once in a while to have some properly reasoned replies in either direction but I think it's beyond the means of most.

you can respond too, if you have anything to add. i would be glad to hear it.

[Odalv]

In 2020 we will have a 6.25 btc block reward.  But for a $10k coin $9 million a day would have to flow into the ecosystem.  That seems like a stretch.  Maybe in 2024.

Think global. The world probably spends more than $9 million a day on intimate wipes.

exactly

[gentlemand]

you can respond too, if you have anything to add. i would be glad to hear it.

When me brain's in gear I'll be sure to step up to the plate.

What I find tiresome is when someone lays out a carefully thought through position and the response is 'no it isn't'. Not only is it bone idle it also shows they can't be bothered to do any thinking. They should bat it back with their own thoughts and figures if they disagree.

[jehst]

In 2020 we will have a 6.25 btc block reward.  But for a $10k coin $9 million a day would have to flow into the ecosystem.  That seems like a stretch.  Maybe in 2024.

Think global. The world probably spends more than $9 million a day on intimate wipes.

The black market alone could get us to 10k. Think about it:

9 million per day is ~3.3 billion per year.
In the United States, the illegal drug market is a 100 billion per year industry. Less than 1% of that business is conducted on the web.

It took internet shopping 15-20 years to go from near zero percent of retail sales to the situation now in 2015 where 7% of all retail sales take place online. We needed Paypal, reputable brands (like Amazon), and time for the idea of shopping online to diffuse into popular culture.

Bitcoin is what will allow black market internet drug sales to go from near zero percent of drug sales to something closer to 7% over the next decade.

7% of 100 billion in the US will be 7 billion per year. That's far more than 9 million per day. (It's ~19 million USD per day.) That is totally ignoring Europe, Canada, and the rest of the world. And totally ignoring any other use-case for bitcoin.

Gemini, COIN, colored coin NASDAQ, and Wall Street taking us to the moon in a speculative frenzy ... that is all wishful thinking. But these people who are buying drugs every day on the Silk Road-like marketplaces need bitcoin every day. It's not a matter of speculation or market sentiment. They need the coins to run their businesses. In some cases, they need the coins to satisfy their addictions.

And it's just a matter of time before these buyers and sellers collectively need 19 million USD per day worth of bitcoin. That's enough to eat up the entire 2021 daily supply of new BTC (900 BTC) at $10,000 per BTC and then ask for more from existing holders.

I don't see bitcoin as a huge gamble anymore. Those dark net markets are already in place and rapidly growing every year. Already, these markets offer better prices and better availability than local drug markets for most people. The same way that Amazon did on the clearnet. So we're steadily marching towards more daily demand. At the same time, we're steadily marching toward blockhalvings that decrease daily supply. These two developments are uncontroversial.

If the dark net markets turn out to be a 3-5 year fad and people stop ordering drugs with bitcoin within the next few years and the markets stop growing, then I'll be wrong. I've been wrong before. I don't mind being wrong nine times as long as I'm right once.

[popovicbit]

Very well laid out argument by jehst. Totally agree

[MarkMJ]

Do you really belive this?
I have an wallet that I kip my big coins if is like you said I will be very rich!lol
Thank you for this.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

No. 2016.

late 2015 maybe?

[TinEye]

No. 2016.

late 2015 maybe?

still too early, still 3-4 months right? i don't think 3 months are enough for sustaining a great increase, but everything could happen, right now i have only a small amount, i need to accumulate more before the end of this year, because the long we wait the more hard will be to accumulate more, the price could rise too much for us poor people

[rjclarke2000]

It's really hard to know what amount potentially could be a life changing number of btc to hold for the future. I mean 5 btc is pretty difficult for a lot to stash. This may not be that life changing....but who knows, 1 may be enough!

100 bitcoins. Well, wouldn't that be nice!

[jehst]

It's really hard to know what amount potentially could be a life changing number of btc to hold for the future. I mean 5 btc is pretty difficult for a lot to stash. This may not be that life changing....but who knows, 1 may be enough!

100 bitcoins. Well, wouldn't that be nice!

Lifechanging is so subjective. If you are a middle-class Australian, for example, $20,000 probably won't change your life. You can buy a better brand of car or live in a slightly better house.

If you are a middle-class Chinese from the provinces (e.g. Jinan), $20,000 could totally change your life. You could buy a small shop or buy a small rural house.

100 bitcoins is probably the bare minimum that a middle-class person living in London, San Francisco, New York, Moscow, Shanghai, Tokyo, etc. needs to change his life.

[Bagatell]

100 bitcoins is probably the bare minimum that a middle-class person living in London, San Francisco, New York, Moscow, Shanghai, Tokyo, etc. needs to change his life.

21m coins between 8 billion people is 0.002625 per head. BTC100 is 38,000 x 0.002625. Seems a little excessive.

[gentlemand]

100 bitcoins is probably the bare minimum that a middle-class person living in London, San Francisco, New York, Moscow, Shanghai, Tokyo, etc. needs to change his life.

21m coins between 8 billion people is 0.002625 per head. BTC100 is 38,000 x 0.002625. Seems a little excessive.

If you can get your hands on that many without risking your future if the worst happens then why the hell not? The more the merrier.