100 bitcoins. Will I be a millionaire by 2020?

[Bagatell]

And 21 million divided by 100 is 210,000 which is a lot less than 12 million (millionaires in the world today) BTC100 is looking like a pretty exclusive club to me.

[rjclarke2000]

If 100btc is the bare minimum to change the life of a middle class person I guess 99% of the forum better stop wasting their time here!

A lot don't even own a whole coin.

Don't you just love speculation? No one is wrong!

[jehst]

If 100btc is the bare minimum to change the life of a middle class person I guess 99% of the forum better stop wasting their time here!

A lot don't even own a whole coin.

Don't you just love speculation? No one is wrong!

I'm not saying that you're wasting your time if you have less than 1 BTC. It's just not realistically going to change your life. In what scenario is 1 BTC going to change your life? If you have less than one bitcoin and bitcoin goes up 10x, it's not going to change your life. $2400 simply can't buy anything that is considered lifechanging. It can only get you better versions of the things you already enjoy. Better computer. Better shoes. Whatever.

Your life changes when you can do something that you couldn't do before. Such as buy property when you were renting before. Or quit your job and retire early when you couldn't do it before.

$2400 cannot change your life, period.  

[futureofbitcoin]

If 100btc is the bare minimum to change the life of a middle class person I guess 99% of the forum better stop wasting their time here!

A lot don't even own a whole coin.

Don't you just love speculation? No one is wrong!

I'm not saying that you're wasting your time if you have less than 1 BTC. It's just not realistically going to change your life. In what scenario is 1 BTC going to change your life? If you have less than one bitcoin and bitcoin goes up 10x, it's not going to change your life. $2400 simply can't buy anything that is considered lifechanging. It can only get you better versions of the things you already enjoy. Better computer. Better shoes. Whatever.

Your life changes when you can do something that you couldn't do before. Such as buy property when you were renting before. Or quit your job and retire early when you couldn't do it before.

$2400 cannot change your life, period.  

In the scenario that 1 BTC = $10,000,000.

Bitcoin would be a horrible investment when you take the huge amount of risk involved, if you think that it only has potential to increase by 10x. That goes to everyone else. If you think that bitcoin doesn't have a realistic shot at $10k+ or 100k+ or whatever, if you think bitcoin will "double in price in about 10 years", then you should get out of bitcoin. Now. The risk just isn't worth it.

I believe that bitcoin has a decent chance of getting to 30k-100k within say 5 years. If it didn't at least that kind of a possibility, to repeat myself again, the risk is just not worth it.

But I agree, really, any amount less than the present value of 5 million isn't really all that life changing, so I would say 167 bitcoins to be safe.

[jehst]

If 100btc is the bare minimum to change the life of a middle class person I guess 99% of the forum better stop wasting their time here!

A lot don't even own a whole coin.

Don't you just love speculation? No one is wrong!

I'm not saying that you're wasting your time if you have less than 1 BTC. It's just not realistically going to change your life. In what scenario is 1 BTC going to change your life? If you have less than one bitcoin and bitcoin goes up 10x, it's not going to change your life. $2400 simply can't buy anything that is considered lifechanging. It can only get you better versions of the things you already enjoy. Better computer. Better shoes. Whatever.

Your life changes when you can do something that you couldn't do before. Such as buy property when you were renting before. Or quit your job and retire early when you couldn't do it before.

$2400 cannot change your life, period.  

In the scenario that 1 BTC = $10,000,000.

Bitcoin would be a horrible investment when you take the huge amount of risk involved, if you think that it only has potential to increase by 10x. That goes to everyone else. If you think that bitcoin doesn't have a realistic shot at $10k+ or 100k+ or whatever, if you think bitcoin will "double in price in about 10 years", then you should get out of bitcoin. Now. The risk just isn't worth it.

I believe that bitcoin has a decent chance of getting to 30k-100k within say 5 years. If it didn't at least that kind of a possibility, to repeat myself again, the risk is just not worth it.

But I agree, really, any amount less than the present value of 5 million isn't really all that life changing, so I would say 167 bitcoins to be safe.

Your statement would've made sense in 2010 or early 2011. But the "risk" of bitcoin going to zero is very low now. Bitcoin has an actual economy that is proven and growing.

The chance to make FORTY THOUSAND times your money ($10,000,000/250) is now gone. Bitcoin would need to take over all international trade. How much international trade did bitcoin take over in 2014? How much will it take over in 2015? Near zero. Do you think that one day everyone in the world will decide that it's time to start using bitcoin? No, we're going to see the trend growing over time.

This market is more mature now. If you want a potentially lifechanging number of bitcoin, you need to accumulate enough bitcoin so that $1,000 to $2,000 per bitcoin in 2021 can change your life. Is 100 bitcoin a lot of money? To most people, yes it is. But that's the kind of money you are going to have to put down to change your life.

167 bitcoins sounds more like it. That's what can take you from living a normal life to having a full-time cook preparing your meals and a part-time captain to drive your yacht. That's a life change.

[DevOfDev]

What do you think? I think I might be close. I'm guessing $10,000 per bitcoin by then.

Why if price down to 10$ again ,,,?

[futureofbitcoin]

Your statement would've made sense in 2010 or early 2011. But the "risk" of bitcoin going to zero is very low now. Bitcoin has an actual economy that is proven and growing.

The chance to make FORTY THOUSAND times your money ($10,000,000/250) is now gone. Bitcoin would need to take over all international trade. How much international trade did bitcoin take over in 2014? How much will it take over in 2015? Near zero. Do you think that one day everyone in the world will decide that it's time to start using bitcoin? No, we're going to see the trend growing over time.

This market is more mature now. If you want a potentially lifechanging number of bitcoin, you need to accumulate enough bitcoin so that $1,000 to $2,000 per bitcoin in 2021 can change your life. Is 100 bitcoin a lot of money? To most people, yes it is. But that's the kind of money you are going to have to put down to change your life.

167 bitcoins sounds more like it. That's what can take you from living a normal life to having a full-time cook preparing your meals and a part-time captain to drive your yacht. That's a life change.

I agree that the market is more mature, and that bitcoin going to zero is a lot less likely than it was in 2010 or 2011. I also agree that the upside is much smaller than it was in 2010 or 2011. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean that the risk is small now. Even if bitcoin doesn't go to zero, there's no guarantee it won't drop by 90% again, like it has in the past year. Even a 30% drop would be big, compared to "normal" investments. That's why for bitcoin to be attractive, it needs to have a HUGE upside. And I believe it does.

The problem with what you're saying is, people who can potentially make a life-changing amount from a $1000 dollar bitcoin does not exist. What do I mean? Well, you said hire a full-time cook, part-time captain and your own yacht. That would probably require a few deca-million. But let's go for a more modest $5,000,000. With a $1k bitcoin, that's 5,000 bitcoins now, or $1,250,000 USD. If you can invest over 1 million USD today, then 5 million dollars WILL NOT be a life-changing amount for you. You probably already have a networth at least close to that, and while it will be a nice windfall, it won't be life changing.

5 mil will only be life changing for people who are not already decently wealthy right now. These people cannot afford thousands of bitcoins. So for someone to be able to make a life-changing amount from bitcoin, bitcoin MUST increase by 100x or even more.

[jehst]

Your statement would've made sense in 2010 or early 2011. But the "risk" of bitcoin going to zero is very low now. Bitcoin has an actual economy that is proven and growing.

The chance to make FORTY THOUSAND times your money ($10,000,000/250) is now gone. Bitcoin would need to take over all international trade. How much international trade did bitcoin take over in 2014? How much will it take over in 2015? Near zero. Do you think that one day everyone in the world will decide that it's time to start using bitcoin? No, we're going to see the trend growing over time.

This market is more mature now. If you want a potentially lifechanging number of bitcoin, you need to accumulate enough bitcoin so that $1,000 to $2,000 per bitcoin in 2021 can change your life. Is 100 bitcoin a lot of money? To most people, yes it is. But that's the kind of money you are going to have to put down to change your life.

167 bitcoins sounds more like it. That's what can take you from living a normal life to having a full-time cook preparing your meals and a part-time captain to drive your yacht. That's a life change.

I agree that the market is more mature, and that bitcoin going to zero is a lot less likely than it was in 2010 or 2011. I also agree that the upside is much smaller than it was in 2010 or 2011. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean that the risk is small now. Even if bitcoin doesn't go to zero, there's no guarantee it won't drop by 90% again, like it has in the past year. Even a 30% drop would be big, compared to "normal" investments. That's why for bitcoin to be attractive, it needs to have a HUGE upside. And I believe it does.

The problem with what you're saying is, people who can potentially make a life-changing amount from a $1000 dollar bitcoin does not exist. What do I mean? Well, you said hire a full-time cook, part-time captain and your own yacht. That would probably require a few deca-million. But let's go for a more modest $5,000,000. With a $1k bitcoin, that's 5,000 bitcoins now, or $1,250,000 USD. If you can invest over 1 million USD today, then 5 million dollars WILL NOT be a life-changing amount for you. You probably already have a networth at least close to that, and while it will be a nice windfall, it won't be life changing.

5 mil will only be life changing for people who are not already decently wealthy right now. These people cannot afford thousands of bitcoins. So for someone to be able to make a life-changing amount from bitcoin, bitcoin MUST increase by 100x or even more.

Well 100 x $1000 = $100,000 that's enough to change people's lives in a small way. Retire 5 year earlier. Something like that.

100 x $10,000 = $1,000,000. That's lifechanging in a bigger way. Maybe move to a new neighborhood. Retire in Thailand if you want.

100 x $30k to $100k = $3,000,000 to $10,000,000. That's where you can buy the yacht, and hire the captain for a few weekends, and have a full-time cook. If it's 3 million, maybe you need to move to the Philippines to afford your staff and boat maintenance but it's still doable.

If demand in USD just goes sideways, we'll be at ~$1000 after two more halvings. I think that scenario is almost like a floor. Not much needs to actually happen in terms of development to get there.

100 BTC will change your life. It's just a matter of patience.

MAYBE 1 BTC can change your life. Maybe.

[Amph]

1 btc is too far stretched, even if it can change your life, it mean that bitcoin reached 1M, a price like this could be seen only when fee era kick in, very unlikely that it will happen before, unless something crazy, like fiat collapsing or other shit like that happen

10k is more reasonable, but still tough enough to get, and 100 btc are hold by a few people, many don't even hold 1...

[clipman77]

It's just a dream, Bitcoin may soon expect a big change IT in general it could collapse and we lose everything and not purchased.

[gentlemand]

100 x $30k to $100k = $3,000,000 to $10,000,000. That's where you can buy the yacht, and hire the captain for a few weekends, and have a full-time cook. If it's 3 million, maybe you need to move to the Philippines to afford your staff and boat maintenance but it's still doable.

If I even dreamt of yachts and staff I'd want hundreds of millions in the bank, not a few and even then I'd be renting occasionally instead. That's been the downfall of many a lottery winner or sports star. Once you start sniffing around the high life the money burners go into overdrive.

If I had access to 5-10 mil I might buy a decent house and a half decent car but that's about it. The rest would see me out with a reasonably pleasant lifestyle but going overboard would finish you off pretty rapidly.

[jehst]

100 x $30k to $100k = $3,000,000 to $10,000,000. That's where you can buy the yacht, and hire the captain for a few weekends, and have a full-time cook. If it's 3 million, maybe you need to move to the Philippines to afford your staff and boat maintenance but it's still doable.

If I even dreamt of yachts and staff I'd want hundreds of millions in the bank, not a few and even then I'd be renting occasionally instead. That's been the downfall of many a lottery winner or sports star. Once you start sniffing around the high life the money burners go into overdrive.

If I had access to 5-10 mil I might buy a decent house and a half decent car but that's about it. The rest would see me out with a reasonably pleasant lifestyle but going overboard would finish you off pretty rapidly.

Makes sense. Certainly in London or those other cities I named, 5-10 million is not enough for real luxury. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Worrying about overspending 10 million is certainly a problem I'd like to have one day. One safe way to roll would be to live off 4% of my income per year and invest the rest. Chances are, I'll be able to keep that lifestyle up indefinitely.

[Terwa]

10k per BTC??
Yes, you will be millionaire but no in 2020

[neurotypical]

Your statement would've made sense in 2010 or early 2011. But the "risk" of bitcoin going to zero is very low now. Bitcoin has an actual economy that is proven and growing.

The chance to make FORTY THOUSAND times your money ($10,000,000/250) is now gone. Bitcoin would need to take over all international trade. How much international trade did bitcoin take over in 2014? How much will it take over in 2015? Near zero. Do you think that one day everyone in the world will decide that it's time to start using bitcoin? No, we're going to see the trend growing over time.

This market is more mature now. If you want a potentially lifechanging number of bitcoin, you need to accumulate enough bitcoin so that $1,000 to $2,000 per bitcoin in 2021 can change your life. Is 100 bitcoin a lot of money? To most people, yes it is. But that's the kind of money you are going to have to put down to change your life.

167 bitcoins sounds more like it. That's what can take you from living a normal life to having a full-time cook preparing your meals and a part-time captain to drive your yacht. That's a life change.

I agree that the market is more mature, and that bitcoin going to zero is a lot less likely than it was in 2010 or 2011. I also agree that the upside is much smaller than it was in 2010 or 2011. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean that the risk is small now. Even if bitcoin doesn't go to zero, there's no guarantee it won't drop by 90% again, like it has in the past year. Even a 30% drop would be big, compared to "normal" investments. That's why for bitcoin to be attractive, it needs to have a HUGE upside. And I believe it does.

The problem with what you're saying is, people who can potentially make a life-changing amount from a $1000 dollar bitcoin does not exist. What do I mean? Well, you said hire a full-time cook, part-time captain and your own yacht. That would probably require a few deca-million. But let's go for a more modest $5,000,000. With a $1k bitcoin, that's 5,000 bitcoins now, or $1,250,000 USD. If you can invest over 1 million USD today, then 5 million dollars WILL NOT be a life-changing amount for you. You probably already have a networth at least close to that, and while it will be a nice windfall, it won't be life changing.

5 mil will only be life changing for people who are not already decently wealthy right now. These people cannot afford thousands of bitcoins. So for someone to be able to make a life-changing amount from bitcoin, bitcoin MUST increase by 100x or even more.

Well 100 x $1000 = $100,000 that's enough to change people's lives in a small way. Retire 5 year earlier. Something like that.

100 x $10,000 = $1,000,000. That's lifechanging in a bigger way. Maybe move to a new neighborhood. Retire in Thailand if you want.

100 x $30k to $100k = $3,000,000 to $10,000,000. That's where you can buy the yacht, and hire the captain for a few weekends, and have a full-time cook. If it's 3 million, maybe you need to move to the Philippines to afford your staff and boat maintenance but it's still doable.

If demand in USD just goes sideways, we'll be at ~$1000 after two more halvings. I think that scenario is almost like a floor. Not much needs to actually happen in terms of development to get there.

100 BTC will change your life. It's just a matter of patience.

MAYBE 1 BTC can change your life. Maybe.

I agree with both views. There is a treshhold in investments where if you can make an investment of over 1 million dollars it means you are already wealthy, and you'll require a bigger % of profit for it to change anything in your life.
It's all the broke boys that would benefit from a higher price of BTC. If BTC goes to 10K, the Winklevoss day to day lifestyle will still be exactly the same as it is now.

[d5000]

10k per BTC??
Yes, you will be millionaire but no in 2020

I agree. If there is a time window where you could be a millionaire, it is between 2017 and 2019 (my prediction is a absolute maximum of ~$15.000 and then a slow bear market). In 2020, Bitcoin probably will be obsolete

[ssmc2]

10k per BTC??
Yes, you will be millionaire but no in 2020

I agree. If there is a time window where you could be a millionaire, it is between 2017 and 2019 (my prediction is a absolute maximum of ~$15.000 and then a slow bear market). In 2020, Bitcoin probably will be obsolete

Care to expound upon how we will reach that high only to be dead by the next year?

[saturn643]

It could be worth 100x more one day. But there's no guarantee behind this. They're all just speculations

[Biodom]

And 21 million divided by 100 is 210,000 which is a lot less than 12 million (millionaires in the world today) BTC100 is looking like a pretty exclusive club to me.

there are many more millionaires than 12 mil.
According to recent numbers there are:
~2700 people worth >500mil
~29300 people worth >100mil
~84500 people worth >50mil
~928000 people worth 10-50 mil
~1.92mil worth 5-10mil

total millionaires at least 29 mil
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-02/its-1-world-who-owns-what-223-trillion-global-wealth

as far as bitcoin is concerned,
according to Rpietila numbers,

there are ~85000 people with 10-100 BTC
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0
IF all wealth will transfer to btc (A very big IF, which I don't subscribe to), then
10-100 BTC will =~$50 mil, making BTC= $0.5-5 mil or 0.5-5c/satoshi
Is is possible-maybe. What is the chance? Unknowable.

[futureofbitcoin]

definitely not all wealth will transfer into bitcoin. I mean houses for example will never be replaced by bitcoin.

At the same time though, bitcoin may create many new wealthy people. I bet hundreds of that first group got there with the internet, and thousands of the 100M or 50M groups got there via the internet.

so bitcoin may do the same.

[jehst]

definitely not all wealth will transfer into bitcoin. I mean houses for example will never be replaced by bitcoin.

At the same time though, bitcoin may create many new wealthy people. I bet hundreds of that first group got there with the internet, and thousands of the 100M or 50M groups got there via the internet.

so bitcoin may do the same.

Facebook's IPO created 1000 millionaires.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/08/us-facebook-millionaires-idUSTRE7B72NK20111208

Bitcoin created a similar number of millionaires in 2013, but you had to be in the top 1000 holders. Which coincidentally meant that you needed around 1000 BTC according to rpietila's estimate.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

Think of it in percentage terms. Ideally, you want to be in the top 0.1% to 1%. Those are the people who are going to become wealthy if BTC is successful.

Don't expect the hundreds of thousands of average people who own 1-10 BTC to also become millionaires in 2020. You need skin in the game.