ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[hammurabi]

Very hard to estimate based on the forum and research.

I got in at 1.5 per share, and am thinking about selling at this point.

Can someone offer some projections based in fact? All I'm reading is about good dividends (good news) but share price has been pretty stable the past week and doesn't show much trade volume, what is going to change?

How long are some of you thinking of holding for?

You will get answer only from people who sold already thus estimated 2.5 maximum value.
And You will get plenty 'sky is the limit' answers from people who yet are about to sell

[stripykitteh]

Very hard to estimate based on the forum and research.

I got in at 1.5 per share, and am thinking about selling at this point.

Can someone offer some projections based in fact? All I'm reading is about good dividends (good news) but share price has been pretty stable the past week and doesn't show much trade volume, what is going to change?

How long are some of you thinking of holding for?

I think in the short term the price run-up is almost over. Early investors are thinking the price is pretty good now and are still divesting part of their holdings. New investors only have so much coin they can put in. That puts an anchor on the price. So short-term most of the value has been realized.

My research is ongoing. I need to spend some time developing a model for deducing the long-term value. The market is a bit artificial at the moment as the relative lack of competition won't last forever. What is sure is that new generations of tech will appear over the next few years, until ASICs approach the complexity of modern CPUs. At that point I think ASICs will reach total commoditization and there might be a handful of brand-name makers (3 or 4) and a slew of 'whitebox' makers. If bitcoin gets truly big and successful I can see a tech giant like Intel or AMD might think it's worth getting into the market. At that stage AM might have pivoted off in another direction, having already done well during the growth phase of ASICs.

I am looking to hold and re-invest for a couple of years if all goes well. I think long term, while anything could happen, it's riskier to bet against friedcat than not.

[Mausini]

Very hard to estimate based on the forum and research.

I got in at 1.5 per share, and am thinking about selling at this point.

Can someone offer some projections based in fact? All I'm reading is about good dividends (good news) but share price has been pretty stable the past week and doesn't show much trade volume, what is going to change?

How long are some of you thinking of holding for?

this is not the place to discuss your bets on share value. this thread should be about friedcats operations and resulting dividends. isnt there some place in this forum you can go for speculation and betting? maybe in the pt threads?

[glendall]

Hi guys. Could someone help a dude out and let me know what the upcoming ASICMINER plans are to bring more mining hardware online?  I've been reading mention of 200 TH or something massive like that . Is this thread where it would be announced? It's not mentioned in the OP and don't want to sift through 300+ pages of thread. Thanks.

[matt4054]

Hi guys. Could someone help a dude out and let me know what the upcoming ASICMINER plans are to bring more mining hardware online?  I've been reading mention of 200 TH or something massive like that . Is this thread where it would be announced? It's not mentioned in the OP and don't want to sift through 300+ pages of thread. Thanks.

Yes it is, and displaying only friedcat's posts will give you a more digest version of the news.

About the plans themselves, basically, he will probably adapt and enable more hashrate as soon as the competition starts following just a little bit (thinking Avalon [machines and chips] here, not Bullshit, Fallacies and Lies...)

[glendall]

Okay thank you Matt.

[iCEBREAKER]

      Why are we still on Guild but not BitMinter?     

BitMinter gives us precious Namecoins (worth an extra 6%) and has lower (1% vs 3%) fees!

      That adds up to 8% less profit.      

[matt4054]

BitMinter gives us precious Namecoins (worth an extra 6%) and has lower (1% vs 3%) fees!

AFAIK, this is speculation because friedcat has neither confirmed or denied that he would exchange the NMC for BTC.
May be true, may be wrong...

[gyverlb]

I'm expecting dividends to be delayed this week.

What a troll. BFL coming up empty making your ass hurt?

I think Luke-Jr might be worrying about the same thing I'm looking at for some time: there's a huge backlog of dust and low/no-fee transactions waiting to be confirmed (see: http://blockchain.info/fr/unconfirmed-transactions). Unless some miner gives priority to the ASICMINER share confirmation dust it will have a hard time coming through (the dividends should be fine as Luke-Jr corrected later).
These unconfirmed transactions are still growing and slow down some bitcoind operations unless you upgrade to 0.8.2rc3 or later. It seems 0.8.2rc3 can handle these transactions given that you have enough memory and its default setting will ignore a sizable part of it.

I didn't study these transactions but I wonder if someone wants us to strengthen the network against this kind of DoS attack by doing the attack (generating huge amounts of dust) in a progressive and controlled way to force devs to solve the problem (done pending stable release) and miners to upgrade (in progress even without stable release) without disturbing the network too much. In the current situation, it seems to me that some individual with Bitcoins to spare and a modified client can slow <=0.8.1 nodes to a crawl at will by generating dust in very large quantities. If I'm right the people/individual behind the "benign DoS attack" are/is actually doing us a huge service.

[kokojie]

      Why are we still on Guild but not BitMinter?     

BitMinter gives us precious Namecoins (worth an extra 6%) and has lower (1% vs 3%) fees!

      That adds up to 8% less profit.      

A small correction, btcguild is 3% fee but pays orphans, so that's worth 1%. Bitminter is 1% but does not pay orphans, so bitminter is only about 1% cheaper in fees. Though the NMC is definite a big extra.

[JimiQ84]

      Why are we still on Guild but not BitMinter?     

BitMinter gives us precious Namecoins (worth an extra 6%) and has lower (1% vs 3%) fees!

      That adds up to 8% less profit.      

A small correction, btcguild is 3% fee but pays orphans, so that's worth 1%. Bitminter is 1% but does not pay orphans, so bitminter is only about 1% cheaper in fees. Though the NMC is definite a big extra.

it's not that easy reconfigure some 460 blades just like that :-) also, I suppose they are switching everything to solo continuously

[Caesium]

it's not that easy reconfigure some 460 blades just like that :-) also, I suppose they are switching everything to solo continuously

It is actually, even I managed to knock up a little script to do it - it's a pretty standard HTTP form post which can be created programatically. I had my four blades hopping between pools in minimal time. I'm sure it's not beyond friedcat's abilities to do something similar.

Or they may even have better access than the web form we had to use.

[robix]

D-DAY!!!!!!! 

[lophie]

D-DAY!!!!!!! 

word

[freedomno1]

D-DAY!!!!!!! 

word

Well this should cause some activity

[lophie]

Lets not talk about how much would the divs turn out to be this week and discuss a different angle. The divs for the past month had sharp swings. It is obvious that divs are not going to be the same for two consecutive weeks.

But do you think guys that at least they will not swing as sharply this and in the upcoming weeks?

EDIT: Personal opinion, One more sharp swing upward because we are still trying to reach the desired % of the network hashing power and one more sharp swing downward for accumulating funds for the next investment (More hardware, extra expenses, etc).

[mr.pj]

Lets not talk about how much would the divs turn out to be this week and discuss a different angle.

And I was just waiting for the first person to exactly start this discussion again ;-)

But on your question:
I believe that we will see some swings the next 2-3 weeks still, since not everything from hwsale has been shipped yet. And as far as I understand it - friedcat only pays the % of shipped devices

After that I guess we will see some more steady dividends mainly from the mining

[g83]

waiting for the first one to say its wednesday and i still have not received my divs yet 

[robix]

waiting for the first one to say its wednesday and i still have not received my divs yet 

It's wednesday and I still haven't received my divs yet. 

[CanadianGuy]

waiting for the first one to say its wednesday and i still have not received my divs yet 

It's wednesday and I still haven't received my divs yet. 

I checked at 12:01am this morning and no divs.