ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[dhenson]

Is there a spreadsheet of share holders somewhere?  I thought I saw a Google doc at one point.

[dmcdad]

ASICMiner is hashing the block chain to shreds the last hour:  

[Rant2112]

Thanks for the slight derail on the Satoshis.  I honestly didn't understand why ASICMiner bothered with them.

Also thanks to rdponticelli for responding with all the points I wanted to say so I didn't have to. 

I guess I should go elsewhere and try to convince the big mining pools to require transaction fees for all transactions.

-- END DERAIL --

[vesper39]

I thought the bitcoin dev team had an update where any transactions under 3 cents or something would not be sent through the blockchain? Or has it not been implemented yet? If so, wouldn't that mean the satoshi confirmations would no longer work?

[lophie]

I thought the bitcoin dev team had an update where any transactions under 3 cents or something would not be sent through the blockchain? Or has it not been implemented yet? If so, wouldn't that mean the satoshi confirmations would no longer work?

To be exact the update was about the minimum amount in a tx output to be eligible to be relayed by other nodes and this amount is suggested for around 0.7 of a (p), Can be easily modified by the nodes.

[daemondazz]

The 1 satoshi = 1 share isn't completely redudundant in determining number of shares. To prove how many shares you have (which you need to do if you're selling for example) you'd need either the complete dividend amount (is it sent in one transaction?) to work out the percentage, or know what the dividend value per share was. The 1 satoshi per share just simplifies that dramatically.

[Luke-Jr]

The 1 satoshi = 1 share isn't completely redudundant in determining number of shares. To prove how many shares you have (which you need to do if you're selling for example) you'd need either the complete dividend amount (is it sent in one transaction?) to work out the percentage, or know what the dividend value per share was. The 1 satoshi per share just simplifies that dramatically.

An ASICMiner-controlled spreadsheet is the right solution for this.

[VeeMiner]

The 1 satoshi = 1 share isn't completely redudundant in determining number of shares. To prove how many shares you have (which you need to do if you're selling for example) you'd need either the complete dividend amount (is it sent in one transaction?) to work out the percentage, or know what the dividend value per share was. The 1 satoshi per share just simplifies that dramatically.

An ASICMiner-controlled spreadsheet is the right solution for this.

not everyone wants everyone else to see how many shares they have. So no, I don't think this is the solution. There has been a talk about asicminer setting up their own exchange (which would make sense) but I guess the engineers and professionals working for ASICMINER have better things to do right now. I have no doubt it will be implemented in the future though.

[Luke-Jr]

The 1 satoshi = 1 share isn't completely redudundant in determining number of shares. To prove how many shares you have (which you need to do if you're selling for example) you'd need either the complete dividend amount (is it sent in one transaction?) to work out the percentage, or know what the dividend value per share was. The 1 satoshi per share just simplifies that dramatically.

An ASICMiner-controlled spreadsheet is the right solution for this.

not everyone wants everyone else to see how many shares they have. So no, I don't think this is the solution. There has been a talk about asicminer setting up their own exchange (which would make sense) but I guess the engineers and professionals working for ASICMINER have better things to do right now. I have no doubt it will be implemented in the future though.

How is this any less private than the transaction spam?
The spreadsheet would just contain a number of shares and the address considered to own them...

[SmiGueL]

Not mine, but i really need to share it here

Units Arrived and Unpacked



All Plugged In

Thanks, friedcat !

[stephwen]

if this kind of transaction bothers anyone, he should press for mandatory fees or something like that, but as long as the protocol allows it, then you should blame the protocol.

The catch here is ASICMINER is quite capable of including their own txids into blocks to ensure they are submitted. Which imho there is nothing wrong with, they are doing the work and as many have said can include whatever txids the protocol can support.

I completely agree and was going to say the same thing.

This is a non-issue.

As I said, at most you can press to change the protocol rules, i.e. declaring invalid a transaction without your desired requirements.
This would prevent any miner from including it.

Of course, this is an hard-fork and you would need to be pretty convincing.
Still, until you do, there's no complaining.

Sorry for being rude, but it's for the sake of clearness.

There's no rule nor protocol or law preventing anybody from shitting on their food. There's no need for it, because it's absolutely obvious the inadvisability of doing such a thing...

Now. if ASICMINER wants to shit over the blockchain, it's ok that they're able to do it. I can't see why somebody should go to the hassle of finding a way to stop them. But that's hardly advisable for themselves, considering that they're eating from the blockchain too...

I find the analogy entertaining.

[circuitry]

So help me understand something. Here's a small compilation I made with the 90-day dividend yield estimates (according to BTCT.CO) of its more popular assets.



According to the numbers, ASICMiner is by far the most profitable asset by approximately ~200% compared to GDSPT, the nearest one. Wouldn't this mean that ASICMiner share value has still a lot of space to grow?

Correct me if I'm missing something. Thanks.

[nebulus]

Not mine, but i really need to share it here

Units Arrived and Unpacked



All Plugged In

Thanks, friedcat !

Haha! Nice!

[Birdy]

So help me understand something. Here's a small compilation I made with the 90-day dividend yield estimates (according to BTCT.CO) of its more popular assets.

[big picture]

According to the numbers, ASICMiner is by far the most profitable asset by approximately ~200% compared to GDSPT, the nearest one. Wouldn't this mean that ASICMiner share value has still a lot of space to grow?

Correct me if I'm missing something. Thanks.

I think a lot of the investors of those lower shares are hoping for a bigger jump of those shares in the future (new mining equipment or whatever).
Also some of those price increases in Asicminer are from hardware sales, which will afaik end soon.
I think there is still space to grow anyway (just recently bought in with a few shares)

[SmiGueL]

Also some of those price increases in Asicminer are from hardware sales, which will afaik end soon.

I really think it just started yet

200TH/s is coming in a couple of months. I'm pretty sure some of that will be sold.
And why would the USB Block Erupter production stop after 10k sold units?
I suppose there will be larger orders than that if this batch is sold out (with maybe even more chips, or faster ones)

Okay, maybe not in a few weeks, or a month, but I'm pretty sure friedcat will announce some new things this summer.
He's very good at that  

[furuknap]

Correct me if I'm missing something. Thanks.

You're missing about 90% of the factors needed, so it would take a long time to correct you. Looking at dividends is like looking at the previous two weeks of weather reports and concluding that it will be rain/sunshine/snow for the rest of eternity.

One thing most people are missing is the decline in share value that will happen in just over three years when the block reward halving happens. Because of AMs size, there's not much room for growth in percentage of network hash rate so the mining dividends will probably drop to about half. Because a lof of the current dividends is derived from hardware sales, which is a short-term opportunity, the real yield, taking into account the reduced hardware sales over time plus the reinvestment needed for hardware sale plus the halving effect, is far, far lower than you currently see.

In calculations I've done (and partially published) it's not very far from reality if you consider between 80-100% in yield of the percentage of the network that AM holds. In other words, if AM holds 100% of the network (which of course they never will), you can estimate a yield of 80-100% and if they hold 25% of the network, you can estimate a yield of 20-25% per year.

This figure depends a lot on what cost their next generation hardware will be (to them, not consumers) and how quickly competitors can delivery in scale. If for example BFL is able to deliver 65nm chips en masse before AM then you may consider reducing the above estimate to somewhere in the 65-85% area.

We don't know how much money AM has set aside for second generation chips, nor how much they will cost, but at some point, that cost will come out of dividends, so if they haven't set aside sufficient money for NRE, the dividends will need to pay for that in the upcoming months.

These are just a few factors to pour some cool water into your veins. If AM wins the race towards second generation chips for mass market, you're looking at a 20-25% yield if AM keeps on average 25% of the network consistently over five years.
 
.b

[mvidetto]

So help me understand something. Here's a small compilation I made with the 90-day dividend yield estimates (according to BTCT.CO) of its more popular assets.



According to the numbers, ASICMiner is by far the most profitable asset by approximately ~200% compared to GDSPT, the nearest one. Wouldn't this mean that ASICMiner share value has still a lot of space to grow?

Correct me if I'm missing something. Thanks.

I believe you are correct, but a lot of people see the share price as overvalued because it has gone up so far .1BTC -> 2.5 BTC.  But if one truly does the math valuing the company at 1 million BTC (2.5BTC * 400k shares).  They are earning ~300k BTC per year just from mining, and their sales more than likely double that on a yearly basis (atleast this year).  This gives them a P/E ratio of roughly 1.66.  Anyone who knows anything about P/E ratios especially in the tech market knows this is surprisingly low.  However, one of the reasons it is low is because of difficulty to trade shares and the high risk associated with holding them.  These reasons may outweigh the pros to outside observers and makes it difficult for newcomers to engage in trading the stock.

[circuitry]

Correct me if I'm missing something. Thanks.

You're missing about 90% of the factors needed, so it would take a long time to correct you. Looking at dividends is like looking at the previous two weeks of weather reports and concluding that it will be rain/sunshine/snow for the rest of eternity.

One thing most people are missing is the decline in share value that will happen in just over three years when the block reward halving happens. Because of AMs size, there's not much room for growth in percentage of network hash rate so the mining dividends will probably drop to about half. Because a lof of the current dividends is derived from hardware sales, which is a short-term opportunity, the real yield, taking into account the reduced hardware sales over time plus the reinvestment needed for hardware sale plus the halving effect, is far, far lower than you currently see.

In calculations I've done (and partially published) it's not very far from reality if you consider between 80-100% in yield of the percentage of the network that AM holds. In other words, if AM holds 100% of the network (which of course they never will), you can estimate a yield of 80-100% and if they hold 25% of the network, you can estimate a yield of 20-25% per year.

This figure depends a lot on what cost their next generation hardware will be (to them, not consumers) and how quickly competitors can delivery in scale. If for example BFL is able to deliver 65nm chips en masse before AM then you may consider reducing the above estimate to somewhere in the 65-85% area.

We don't know how much money AM has set aside for second generation chips, nor how much they will cost, but at some point, that cost will come out of dividends, so if they haven't set aside sufficient money for NRE, the dividends will need to pay for that in the upcoming months.

These are just a few factors to pour some cool water into your veins. If AM wins the race towards second generation chips for mass market, you're looking at a 20-25% yield if AM keeps on average 25% of the network consistently over five years.
 
.b

I have actually considered some of the factors you mention, in part because I have carefully read both this thread and your blog posts on the matter. Surely there are a lot of uncertainities about AM and it's not a long shot to expect some bumps on the road.

Still, I wonder why other assets' valuation is (by comparison) higher than AM's, in exchange for (from an outsider's viewpoint) a considerably less ambitious operation. Friedcat and company have outperformed themselves several times, whereas the rest of the assets' seem to be stagnant, and generate smaller (and dwindling) dividends.

Nobody can predict the future of AsicMiner, but as far as present shows, things looks brighter and more promising in AM's camp than others'.

Anyway, thanks for taking the time to answer and shine some light on my way. I'm still learning about all this stuff.

[furuknap]

Still, I wonder why other assets' valuation is (by comparison) higher than AM's, in exchange for (from an outsider's viewpoint) a considerably less ambitious operation. Friedcat and company have outperformed themselves several times, whereas the rest of the assets' seem to be stagnant, and generate smaller (and dwindling) dividends.

One reason is that smaller companies still have room to grow. If you control 1% of the network hash rate, increasing to 5% with addition of new hardware is feasible. If you're AM, you can't really double your mining proceeds because you'd be above (or very close to) the 51% limit. Thus, what you see in some mining assets is the expectation of profitability increase whereas at this point, the dividends from AM can really only go down.

That's why hardware sales is so key to evaluating AM right now; if someone comes out with next-gen chips for mass market before AM and grabs a huge chunk of the hardware market then AM will fall back to a dividend must lower than today. Add the halving effect (which is around 0.03 per month at a price of 2.5BTC) and you're seeing yields possibly down to 10-15%, which is not entirely what most people bought even if it is a good deal.

Of course, if AM's total network percentage over time is anywhere near what friedcat predicted (10%) then dividends will be negative in real value, which would be a complete disaster. In other words, AM must exceed it's own expectations by 150% to return the same yield (20-25%) as some other mining assets.

Oh, and just to beat the haters and naysayers to the punch, I still have great confidence in AM in the long run, I just don't think everyone realizes how long a run that must be :-)

.b

[tkone]

i think we are still really early, and still have alot to go, the halving of blocks shouldnt hurt because by then i think transaction fees will give us more profit then the blocks, meaning our dividends will go up in time from transaction fees going up, once more ppl start using bitcoin, more transactions, and more transaction will want to be confirmed faster, paying larger fees, and those fees will go to the miners that mine the block, and since we will be holding a good amount of the hash% we should be getting alot of those profits,

also asicminer has proved to be the best at mass producing asics and selling them real fast, even though they were not the first to start creating them, so that means asicminer is doing something right, so seems like they will continue to do it right, and even more hardware sales from better equiptment, also once transaction fees really start kicking in and making mining even more profitable, then asic's will be more expensive and still be a really strong market, and remember we are most advanced in this market, so we have the head start over others,

also more ppl catching on to bitcoin will see that for longer peroids of time this share has been holding value and dividends rising, will pick the share price up,

i really think this share is undervalued even at 2.5 i think true price should be around 5btc each, and eventually when transaction fees will be even higher then the share price can still rise, really sky is the limit, it all depends how much bitcoin will adapt,

also once price of bitcoins starts to rise to lets say 1k, 10k, 50k, 100k, 200k 500k, per bitcoin, this share will once again rise and rise,

really we far ahead of everyone right now, aslong as we continue to keep the hashrate, we continue to pump out asics faster then anyone else, we should be fine or maybe a little tiny bit better then fine, depends what you define fine lol

GL

LONG LIVE ASICMINER LONG LIVE FRIEDCAT!!!