ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[ionstorm]

Also I was wondering what asicminers new plans are now that there is even more of an influx of chips from bfl, Avalon, and bit fury that will hit the Blockchain in less than 90 days.  Will their planned 200th be enough?  Has anyone worked out the new numbers in sustaining 30+ percent?

[1715091178]

1715091178

[1715091178]

1715091178

[1715091178]

1715091178

[1715091178]

1715091178

[1715091178]

1715091178

[1715091178]

1715091178

[stripykitteh]

Also I was wondering what asicminers new plans are now that there is even more of an influx of chips from bfl, Avalon, and bit fury that will hit the Blockchain in less than 90 days.  Will their planned 200th be enough?  Has anyone worked out the new numbers in sustaining 30+ percent?

Very roughly, to come:

Bitfury ~200TH coming (100 for the mine, 100 for finished products). September is extremely optimistic for it all to be online. Say ~100TH.
Avalon finished products ~60TH (say 1/2 of batch 2 still undelivered and all of batch 3)
Avalon chips ~760,000 * .282GH = 214TH, but I think perhaps only 25% will be on by September, say ~60TH
BFL + KnC + others: hard to say, I don't think it will be much though. Perhaps 10TH all up.

I estimate 230TH of non-AM coming on in 90 days, with a high variance. It could be less, it's unlikely to be vastly more. AM would need to put on 3/7 * 230TH = ~100TH to maintain 30% share of the network, or achieve the same through sales.

Crystal-balling out further another ~200TH non-AM might be out by Christmas. Hopefully gen-2 rocks up by then.

[Eric Muyser]

Edit: missed a decimal place. Thanks stripykitteh. Phew.

[stripykitteh]

I hope people realize in 2 months the difficulty will be up to 100,000,000 and the asics they ordered months ago that arrive will make less than 50 a day.  I believe as reality sets in people will rush to buy asicminer shares because soon it will be extremely unprofitable to mine alone.  I'm considering cancelling preorders and buying asicminer shares exclusively.

We're already seeing guys marking up bitfury's from 17btc to 30 or 40btc.. giving it 0.003 per MH, waiting 3+ months, about half of TAT's IPO (0.007) that's *right now* and YABMC at 0.0041 also *right now* and still not going to be very profitable soon.

Yawn....

The only profit soon (kind of now) will be in hosting group buys, your own mining bonds, and companies actually doing something like asicminer. Yup.

I think you've got a decimal place wrong there. Bitfury's miner is 120GHash, and is available on pre-order for 30BTC.

Not ignoring the risk, but it works out at 30/120,000 = 0.00025 btc/MHash, 28 times the hashing power of TAT's IPO. Not arguing which is the better investment; they'll cater to investors with different risk profiles.

[Lohoris]

And who says friedcat has to do everything himself?

What is ASICMiner's bus factor?

This is an excellent question, a pity it was ignored.

Or, it was ignored because maybe nobody knows the official answer (since the inner workings of ASICMINER aren't exactly clear), or because it is known that the bus factor is 1.

Just guessing.

(disclaimer: mind, I love ASICMINER, only sometimes things like this one worry me)

[Eric Muyser]

I think you've got a decimal place wrong there. Bitfury's miner is 120GHash, and is available on pre-order for 30BTC.

Not ignoring the risk, but it works out at 30/120,000 = 0.00025 btc/MHash, 28 times the hashing power of TAT's IPO. Not arguing which is the better investment; they'll cater to investors with different risk profiles.

Oops you're right. I jumped the gun on that one. Thanks much 16x YABMC too.

[runeks]

Hashrate is still ~21 TH/s... didn't it go up to around 28 a day or two ago, or did I dream that??

Not dreaming, you can see it on http://www.asicminercharts.com.

I do not know if it was a test run deploying new kit. I've noticed in the past when the hash rate goes up to a new high it tends to come down again before retracing up again. It looks like it's climbing now.

Variance. I'll try to get time to post a chart which should provide a better indication of hashrate than a daily average.

I'm tracking the solo mining hash rate on my site. I have a chart with 24-hour, 3-day, 7-day and all-time average: http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/



The 24-hour average did climb, but it was probably just a streak of good luck. The 3-day and 7-day averages are all climbing though. It's clear that ASICMiner has added hashing power to solo mining in the past week. But the 24-hour average (much less the 12- and 6-hour average) aren't reliable estimates of the hash rate.

This is only an estimate of the solo hash rate though. You need to add 7 Thash on top of that from BTCGuild. So a good bet is that they're hashing at around 25 Thash/s in total.

A more interesting figure though, is the coins mined since last dividend payout. This is what's really relevant to shareholders. It's already above the level at the previous pay, Wednesday last week, so it's fairly certain that they've added extra hashing power to solo mining:



Again, these charts are only for solo mining. So add another 40% on top of that from BTCGuild. I'm counting on ASICMiner going 100% solo, so I'm not adding a tracker for BTCGuild. But I'm not sure whether than has been announced or not.

[SmiGueL]

For the charts I use the average hashrate of solo-mined blocks in the last 36h, and the current real-time hashrate on the sites they are mining on (currently only on BTCGuild and with a few sticks or blades on BitMinter)
I think 2 - 3 days is the 'sweet spot' but blockchain.info doesn't allow me to go back more than 250 blocks in their API..
_{(I asked them in their thread, no response..)}

Another site I can use is http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/blocklist.php but they don't include timestamps AND some mined blocks by ASICMINER show up on their list as Unknown...

If someone knows a site which shows the relayer + timestamp and that goes back 500 blocks (or more) then please let me know

[stripykitteh]

Runeks, thanks for that. Short-term luck really can skew the estimate!

[radiumsoup]

I'm tracking the solo mining hash rate on my site. I have a chart with 24-hour, 3-day, 7-day and all-time average: http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/

It's important for everyone to understand that you (and most others who generate this type of data) are tracking an EXTRAPOLATED hash rate based on the rate of found blocks over time... since luck/variance will affect the calculation (especially with short timeframes like 24 hours or less), it would be better to describe this as "blocks found over time" instead of "hash rate" so people don't fall into the trap of thinking that hardware is being taken online and offline for whatever reason, since this seems to just fuel needless speculation.

[organofcorti]

For the charts I use the average hashrate of solo-mined blocks in the last 36h, and the current real-time hashrate on the sites they are mining on (currently BTCGuild)
I think 2 - 3 days is the 'sweet spot' but blockchain.info doesn't allow me to go back more than 250 blocks in their API..
_{(I asked them in their thread, no response..)}

Other site I can use is http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/blocklist.php but they don't include timestamps AND some mined blocks by ASICMINER show up on their list as unknown...

If someone knows a site with an API which goes back than 500 blocks (or more) then please let me know

I have blocks and (translated from hex) coinbases for the last couple weeks. They update in realtime, but I don't have anywhere to put them for real time access.

If you use R I'd be happy to share with you the code that queries bitcoind, records blocks, blocktimes and translates the coinbase (although running bitcoind from a hosted server may be a problem). Easy from there to generate nice charts automatically.

Otherwise you can get the coinbase for all blocks from blockexplorer.com, but you'd have to grep the hex value of the ASICMiner coinbase signature yourself.

[aahzmundus]

Hashrate is still ~21 TH/s... didn't it go up to around 28 a day or two ago, or did I dream that??

Not dreaming, you can see it on http://www.asicminercharts.com.

I do not know if it was a test run deploying new kit. I've noticed in the past when the hash rate goes up to a new high it tends to come down again before retracing up again. It looks like it's climbing now.

Variance. I'll try to get time to post a chart which should provide a better indication of hashrate than a daily average.

I'm tracking the solo mining hash rate on my site. I have a chart with 24-hour, 3-day, 7-day and all-time average: http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/



The 24-hour average did climb, but it was probably just a streak of good luck. The 3-day and 7-day averages are all climbing though. It's clear that ASICMiner has added hashing power to solo mining in the past week. But the 24-hour average (much less the 12- and 6-hour average) aren't reliable estimates of the hash rate.

This is only an estimate of the solo hash rate though. You need to add 7 Thash on top of that from BTCGuild. So a good bet is that they're hashing at around 25 Thash/s in total.

A more interesting figure though, is the coins mined since last dividend payout. This is what's really relevant to shareholders. It's already above the level at the previous pay, Wednesday last week, so it's fairly certain that they've added extra hashing power to solo mining:



Again, these charts are only for solo mining. So add another 40% on top of that from BTCGuild. I'm counting on ASICMiner going 100% solo, so I'm not adding a tracker for BTCGuild. But I'm not sure whether than has been announced or not.

When dividends are paid out, is the address the solo mined coins go into zeroed out?  Or in general, can you explain in a little detail the second graph and how you get the info for it?  I remember previously when looking at your charts the two lines would diverge... why would they ever diverge?  Hell, why have the two lines?  Shouldn't they... in a way... show the exact same thing?  Or is there something I am missing here that would cause a difference in mined vs. mined per share?

Like what's his name has pointed out twice now, since we know exactly how many coins are mined, people really need to ignore hashrate... and I need to better understand this second chart.

[SmiGueL]

When dividends are paid out, is the address the solo mined coins go into zeroed out?

If that's really the case then this is the income/share meter




_{*Note that costs for labour/electricity etc. have to be subtracted from this - Updates about every hour.}

[runeks]

I'm tracking the solo mining hash rate on my site. I have a chart with 24-hour, 3-day, 7-day and all-time average: http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/

It's important for everyone to understand that you (and most others who generate this type of data) are tracking an EXTRAPOLATED hash rate based on the rate of found blocks over time... since luck/variance will affect the calculation (especially with short timeframes like 24 hours or less), it would be better to describe this as "blocks found over time" instead of "hash rate" so people don't fall into the trap of thinking that hardware is being taken online and offline for whatever reason, since this seems to just fuel needless speculation.

You're right. I've actually thought about this previously, that these charts should explicitly say "hash rate estimate". I'm going to fix that now.

When dividends are paid out, is the address the solo mined coins go into zeroed out?  Or in general, can you explain in a little detail the second graph and how you get the info for it?

The way I calculate this is as follows:

Every time a new ASICMiner block comes in, I add the mined amount to the present amount mined. Every time I receive a dividend payout to my shareholder address, the number of coins ASICMiner has mined since the last dividend payout is zeroed.

So for every ASICMiner solo block that comes in, total coins mined since last dividend payout gets incremented by the block reward. And when I receive a dividend payout to my address, this cumulative amount is set to zero, and we start over.

I remember previously when looking at your charts the two lines would diverge... why would they ever diverge?  Hell, why have the two lines?  Shouldn't they... in a way... show the exact same thing?  Or is there something I am missing here that would cause a difference in mined vs. mined per share?

Right. They did that. The only reason they would diverge is if the units on the right vertical axis don't correspond to the units on the left vertical axis divided by 400,000. This was the case before because Google Spreadsheet charts adjust the range automatically, and one axis was adjusted while the other wasn't. The amounts were still correct.

The reason there are two lines is so that I don't have to create the right vertical axis and adjust it manually. When there are two lines, one for the left vertical axis and one for the right vertical axis, the units on the axes are automatically adjusted when the cumulative mining dividend increases.

[binaryFate]

I wonder how much the shares are spread, ie how many different people are actually holding them. Any way to get a rough feeling about that?

EDIT: I guess one could track the transactions that are paying dividends and counts the number of addresses

[stripykitteh]

I wonder how much the shares are spread, ie how many different people are actually holding them. Any way to get a rough feeling about that?

EDIT: I guess one could track the transactions that are paying dividends and counts the number of addresses

Yeah, good idea, that'd work.

Looking at some of the auctions here some IPO people still hold thousands of shares. There'd be dozens who'd have a few hundred, then on down to the folk like me who got in a bit later. With the 1/100 pass throughs there'd now be a few thousand shareholders, I'd imagine, though strictly speaking 1/100 pass throughs aren't really AM shares.

[TiuraZ]

I wonder how much the shares are spread, ie how many different people are actually holding them. Any way to get a rough feeling about that?

EDIT: I guess one could track the transactions that are paying dividends and counts the number of addresses

Yeah, good idea, that'd work.

Looking at some of the auctions here some IPO people still hold thousands of shares. There'd be dozens who'd have a few hundred, then on down to the folk like me who got in a bit later. With the 1/100 pass throughs there'd now be a few thousand shareholders, I'd imagine, though strictly speaking 1/100 pass throughs aren't really AM shares.

Literally, owners of PT shares aren't shareholders, the issuers of PT's instead are.

[tinus42]

I wonder how much the shares are spread, ie how many different people are actually holding them. Any way to get a rough feeling about that?

EDIT: I guess one could track the transactions that are paying dividends and counts the number of addresses

Yeah, good idea, that'd work.

Looking at some of the auctions here some IPO people still hold thousands of shares. There'd be dozens who'd have a few hundred, then on down to the folk like me who got in a bit later. With the 1/100 pass throughs there'd now be a few thousand shareholders, I'd imagine, though strictly speaking 1/100 pass throughs aren't really AM shares.

Literally, owners of PT shares aren't shareholders, the issuers of PT's instead are.

PT's are derivatives from what I understand.

The point is moot though, you get just about the same dividend as the true shareholders get (minus a fee) and the price follows the price of the true shares.

You only don't have voting rights.

There are advantages, PT's are way faster to sell. No hassle with auctions and escrow payments.

[aahzmundus]

So I think I messed up... but maybe someone can find my mistake...

I tried to take all the satoshi transactions that appeared on 5/29/2013 and put them into a spreadsheet.  When I did this however the total number of shares came out to be 64,459 which means... im missing some... right?

Some cool things came out:

1) There are 298 direct shareholders
2) The mean number of shares held is 216 shares
3) The most common number of shares to hold is 10
4) The largest holder of shares (in one address) holds 12590 shares

THESE NUMBERS MAY BE WRONG!!!! I only could account for 64,459 shares... can someone find the ones I am missing or explain why I can not find them?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Am3MH7b0EM3adG56N1VzZzdtNXRZSkdOOXcxbGx0TXc&usp=sharing

[ThickAsThieves]

So I think I messed up... but maybe someone can find my mistake...

I tried to take all the satoshi transactions that appeared on 5/29/2013 and put them into a spreadsheet.  When I did this however the total number of shares came out to be 64,459 which means... im missing some... right?

Some cool things came out:

1) There are 298 direct shareholders
2) The mean number of shares held is 216 shares
3) The most common number of shares to hold is 10
4) The largest holder of shares (in one address) holds 12590 shares

THESE NUMBERS MAY BE WRONG!!!! I only could account for 64,459 shares... can someone find the ones I am missing or explain why I can not find them?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Am3MH7b0EM3adG56N1VzZzdtNXRZSkdOOXcxbGx0TXc&usp=sharing

It's likely that AM sends divs in more than one batch.