ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[binaryFate]

I recommend just sitting tight a couple days to see how things unfold. Maybe have some relaxing tea

This, no need to get panties in a bunch because friedcat's not updating on a daily basis. You bought in because you trusted friedcat's decision making, unlike those "other ASIC companies"....

No need, but this is entertaining to squeeze any possible information out of what are publicly available facts. 

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[romerun]

any clue why am is 9% as of now ?

[stripykitteh]

Please check my math, tear my argument to pieces, come up with other ideas.. but try and help me answer this question.  How the hell are we out of blades with how many we have sold?

I don't think AM is out of blades.

This is just supposition on my part, drawing inferences on how friedcat has behaved so far.

I think friedcat knew that the blades weren't a good deal for buyers anymore at 50BTC so he pulled them and will either sell them in bulk in private at a discount or deploy them to keep the network share up (or a bit of both).

The alternative would have been to drop the price the public pays every time the difficulty went up. The problem with that is that it encourages people to hold off on purchases to wait for a bargain. I think friedcat is a smart enough businessman (smarter than basically everyone, heh) to know that mining is a classic repeat customer business. If you screw over your customers the way some other vendors are doing at the moment, they'll think twice about dealing with you again. However, if you under promise and over deliver, they'll beat a path to your door, again and again.

So he puts blades on sale for a while, then takes them off when they're no longer a good deal. People will learn that if they want AM products, it's best to get in early when the rewards are best, as they'll offer the best return early and won't be on sale forever.

In a few weeks, a refreshed product will come out at a lower price point with better features. Demand will have built up again, and early purchasers will have had a few weeks of less competition from other sales.

EDIT: Dimly recall from some marketing seminars that products are all about a "promise" - shinier hair, whiter teeth, attractive to the opposite sex, etc. Most other vendors doing pre-orders are selling a "gamble". AM is selling (relative) certainty. "Order this product today, have it in 5 days and start using it." That's a clear point of difference that no-one else has yet offered.

EDIT #2: That's also why I've noticed a lot of AM haters coming out of the woodwork. They look at the AM offering and scoff "how can you pay that much per Ghash? I can get xxx Ghash for $yyy from Company ZZZ. AM customers are all stupid." Those people are not in AM's target market (they really want a gamble, or they are possibly just self-deluded about when they will get their hardware) so they mock anyone who doesn't think the same way they do.

[ianp]

any clue why am is 9% as of now ?

Steady decline over the last 5 days..

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=120,96,72,48,24

[Franktank]

any clue why am is 9% as of now ?

Steady decline over the last 5 days..

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=120,96,72,48,24

"The night is darkest just before the dawn. And I promise you, the dawn is coming..." - Harvey Dent, The Dark Knight

[Eric Muyser]

c) some large player put in an EPIC buy order and bought ASICMINER out of blades, and this weeks div will be the most amazing thing ever.

I'm optimistic about this...

[wtfvanity]

Sorry I miss something, how do we know that we are out of blades?

I guess we don't know for sure, but Friedcat at least is not selling the hardware, he updated the sales thread for that saying they are out of stock.

[binaryFate]

Sorry I miss something, how do we know that we are out of blades?

I guess we don't know for sure, but Friedcat at least is not selling the hardware, he updated the sales thread for that saying they are out of stock.

We were speculating some time ago on the best way to decrease hardware price without having customers with past orders pissed off, or without having people holding on to wait for a price decrease...
Stopping blade sells for some time would feet perfectly into this. Then open again with lower price... much better than sharp change all of a sudden!
So, I'm not sure from the hypothesis "blade sells are stopped now" we can derivate the conclusion "they are out of stock" so easily.

[ThickAsThieves]

If they wanted to reduce price regularly, they could use a formula that factored current difficulty. This would make it "fair" to previous buyers quite dynamically.

[stripykitteh]

If they wanted to reduce price regularly, they could use a formula that factored current difficulty. This would make it "fair" to previous buyers quite dynamically.

Yes, he could. My argument was pure speculation; he must have some good reason for not going that way. A bulk sale to a private buyer sounds plausible but what would I know?

[ThickAsThieves]

If they wanted to reduce price regularly, they could use a formula that factored current difficulty. This would make it "fair" to previous buyers quite dynamically.

Yes, he could. My argument was pure speculation; he must have some good reason for not going that way. A bulk sale to a private buyer sounds plausible but what would I know?

Maybe he sold half the farm too, and will be replacing it with the new ones.

[dhenson]

I'm not quite sure why we are off in the weeds talking about hardware sales when there has been such a drastic drop in Asicminer hash rate.
http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
The network hash rate experienced ~20Th drop and then it was very quickly re-added.

http://blockchain.info/pools
50BTC has had a 4% increase in total network hash rate in the last 3 days.  Asicminer has dropped 5% in the same time period.

Is it possible that friedcat is simply transitioning some solo-mining over to 50BTC and hasn't announced it yet?  Am I mis-reading these charts and coming to an incorrect conclusion?

[Rival]

That was my basic assumption but I did not want to take the slings and arrows for the speculation.

The reduction in AM shares corresponded quite closely with an increase in BTC guild hash share. I immediately postulated that AM moved some amount of hashing from private to BTC guild, but for what reason I could not fathom. It may well be staging for transition to newer eruptors, but once again, not sure what the exact reasoning would be.

[Ozymandias]

That was my basic assumption but I did not want to take the slings and arrows for the speculation.

The reduction in AM shares corresponded quite closely with an increase in BTC guild hash share. I immediately postulated that AM moved some amount of hashing from private to BTC guild, but for what reason I could not fathom. It may well be staging for transition to newer eruptors, but once again, not sure what the exact reasoning would be.

Now that BTCguild has merged mining Namecoins on stratum, it seems like it would be more profitable to point a couple of terahashes/s their way than to keep it all on solo; maybe that's what's going to happen?

[mem]

So he puts blades on sale for a while, then takes them off when they're no longer a good deal. People will learn that if they want AM products, it's best to get in early when the rewards are best, as they'll offer the best return early and won't be on sale forever.

In a few weeks, a refreshed product will come out at a lower price point with better features. Demand will have built up again, and early purchasers will have had a few weeks of less competition from other sales.[/quote[
Seems like a sound plan and sound plans seem to be friedcats forte.

EDIT #2: That's also why I've noticed a lot of AM haters coming out of the woodwork. They look at the AM offering and scoff "how can you pay that much per Ghash? I can get xxx Ghash for $yyy from Company ZZZ. AM customers are all stupid." Those people are not in AM's target market (they really want a gamble, or they are possibly just self-deluded about when they will get their hardware) so they mock anyone who doesn't think the same way they do.

I have to say, after being among those that are feeling a little screwed over from avalon are definitely starting to rethink this heavily.
The fast shipping time means you could possibly end up with a nice usb key that can actually achieve ROI and then happily trickle away (every miners dream).

As of now I wouldn't bother with the usb keys being to late to the game, buuuut I can see myself being up for the next round as soon as he opens orders.

any clue why am is 9% as of now ?

Steady decline over the last 5 days..

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=120,96,72,48,24

handy link, thanks

c) some large player put in an EPIC buy order and bought ASICMINER out of blades, and this weeks div will be the most amazing thing ever.

I'm optimistic about this...

Im going close my eyes and wish real hard on thursday

[SOSLOVE868]

The most reasonable reason regard to this instantly drop of hashpower ,is Friedcat might sold half of its blades to a private buyers who will pay him directly by cash, if so ,then we will received a highest dividend ever...and another assumption is he operating his farm in different location, and one of this location had some work like network upgrade or electricity shock off, In China , especially in summer time , the electricity supply is often stop work due to the hot weather, everybody uses of air conditioner caused huge  pressure on the electricity supply network, then the government will cut electricity supply to some industrial district.
 Personally,I believe the assumption of pending electricity supply is most believable, because I saw the news reported China is currently suffered extremely hot weather, some areas hit record high  Celsius above 40. We know that ASICMINER is a company operating in Shenzhen China, and Shenzhen is  in southern side China, which is warmest place over China.

I think everyone here, do not start panic selling, in case both assumptions are not pessimistic.

[ianp]

handy link, thanks

No problem. I'm working on creating a large amount of historical data for SmiGueL to use over at asicminercharts.com.

Ian

[mem]

I think everyone here, do not start panic selling, in case both assumptions are not pessimistic.

correction: do start panic selling, Im waiting @ the bottom for your sell orders.

[SOSLOVE868]

I think everyone here, do not start panic selling, in case both assumptions are not pessimistic.

correction: do start panic selling, Im waiting @ the bottom for your sell orders.

Yes...I should change it , everyone start panic selling right now...I am waiting @ the bottom...

[TaxReturn]

I think everyone here, do not start panic selling, in case both assumptions are not pessimistic.

correction: do start panic selling, Im waiting @ the bottom for your sell orders.

It looks like someone on btct sold TAT.AMs all the way down to 0.025121... and I had no buy orders in :/