ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[SOSLOVE868]

I think everyone here, do not start panic selling, in case both assumptions are not pessimistic.

correction: do start panic selling, Im waiting @ the bottom for your sell orders.

It looks like someone on btct sold TAT.AMs all the way down to 0.025121... and I had no buy orders in :/

It will be a tough day to selling AM-PT at 2.89 level... the price will significantly dump because of the hashrate drooped.

[1714672199]

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[Mastergerund]

The most reasonable reason regard to this instantly drop of hashpower ,is Friedcat ...

I'm going to disagree. The most reasonable reason is variance. The hashpower is unchanged, but the luck is a little bad for a few hours. The charts calculate hashpower based on blocks found, not based on actual hashpower. A decline in luck for AM can easily correspond with an increase in luck for a major pool.

Now, for the last time, can we stop discussing why hashpower changed over any period shorter than 3 days?  If you think hashpower changed, ask yourself what time period the change is over. If it's less than 3 days, the MOST likely explanation is variance. If it's greater than 3 days, then you can start speculating about hardware being moved, planned slowdown before difficulty reset, etc.

It feels like we have this discussion every 7-10 pages in this thread.

Variance.

Again, variance.

Again, variance.

[finlof]

what's the deal with this website?  was it supposed to be the official ASICMiner website and supposed to receive regular updates? - http://www.asicminer.co/about.html

[SOSLOVE868]

The most reasonable reason regard to this instantly drop of hashpower ,is Friedcat ...

I'm going to disagree. The most reasonable reason is variance. The hashpower is unchanged, but the luck is a little bad for a few hours. The charts calculate hashpower based on blocks found, not based on actual hashpower. A decline in luck for AM can easily correspond with an increase in luck for a major pool.

Now, for the last time, can we stop discussing why hashpower changed over any period shorter than 3 days?  If you think hashpower changed, ask yourself what time period the change is over. If it's less than 3 days, the MOST likely explanation is variance. If it's greater than 3 days, then you can start speculating about hardware being moved, planned slowdown before difficulty reset, etc.

It feels like we have this discussion every 7-10 pages in this thread.

Variance.

Again, variance.

Again, variance.

Oh, yes ,variance ...I hope this situation will stop soon...get luck back AM...I do not sure about how those chart derive AM's hashpower, but a 10 % variance is just too extreme, I rather than believe there are suffered pending electricity supply .

[VeeMiner]

what's the deal with this website?  was it supposed to be the official ASICMiner website and supposed to receive regular updates? - http://www.asicminer.co/about.html

nope, some fan started it up and then stopped updating it

[Equilux]

The most reasonable reason regard to this instantly drop of hashpower ,is Friedcat ...

I'm going to disagree. The most reasonable reason is variance. The hashpower is unchanged, but the luck is a little bad for a few hours. The charts calculate hashpower based on blocks found, not based on actual hashpower. A decline in luck for AM can easily correspond with an increase in luck for a major pool.

Now, for the last time, can we stop discussing why hashpower changed over any period shorter than 3 days?  If you think hashpower changed, ask yourself what time period the change is over. If it's less than 3 days, the MOST likely explanation is variance. If it's greater than 3 days, then you can start speculating about hardware being moved, planned slowdown before difficulty reset, etc.

It feels like we have this discussion every 7-10 pages in this thread.

Variance.

Again, variance.

Again, variance.

While i think you are generally right, I would argue that this time variance does not seem to adequately explain the current drop; http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/ 24h average is WAY down, 3 day average is also down by a large percentage, and even the 7 day average has made an unprecedented dip.

[stripykitteh]

Selling blades in bulk for cash would make a lot of sense if some NRE costs are coming up for the next generation of chips, seeing as those costs must be paid in cash (selling a ton of BTC to raise RMB might be problematic). If that is the case we won't see the dividend pop, but it will all be cool nonetheless.  

[rdponticelli]

Please, can somebody interested on keep on speculating about the short term hashrate changes of AM create a thread about it on the speculation subforum?

And please, link it here and everybody, please, keep the speculation there.

Thank you, very much.

[SOSLOVE868]

Selling blades in bulk for cash would make a lot of sense if some NRE costs are coming up for the next generation of chips, seeing as those costs must be paid in cash (selling a ton of BTC to raise RMB might be problematic). If that is the case we won't see the dividend pop, but it will all be cool nonetheless.  

Sold half of its blades to some rich Chinese people who interest to mining business, and received RMB with transaction. Received RMB could prevent exchange this amount of BTC over exchange will absolutely caused a huge price dump...Friedcat a nice guy makes every possibly effort to protecting us.. God bless you ,mate!!!

[mc_lovin]

what's the deal with this website?  was it supposed to be the official ASICMiner website and supposed to receive regular updates? - http://www.asicminer.co/about.html

I have asicminer.org / bitfountain.org if anyone is interested in putting something quality there and doing regular updates. 

[ianp]

I'm going to disagree. The most reasonable reason is variance. The hashpower is unchanged, but the luck is a little bad for a few hours. The charts calculate hashpower based on blocks found, not based on actual hashpower. A decline in luck for AM can easily correspond with an increase in luck for a major pool.

Now, for the last time, can we stop discussing why hashpower changed over any period shorter than 3 days?  If you think hashpower changed, ask yourself what time period the change is over. If it's less than 3 days, the MOST likely explanation is variance. If it's greater than 3 days, then you can start speculating about hardware being moved, planned slowdown before difficulty reset, etc.

It feels like we have this discussion every 7-10 pages in this thread.

Variance.

Again, variance.

Again, variance.

I think that attributing this to variance is a bit of a stretch. Something is going on, we just don't know what. With that said, I'm inclined to believe there is a valid reason behind the drop (hardware sales, etc.)

The probability of finding a block per hour based on a given difficulty is easy to figure out. Conversely, the probability of not finding a given block per hour (or any timeframe) is easy to figure as well. Therefore, determining hashpower over 24 or 48 hours should be fairly accurate. A lot of variance would have to happen for 24 or 48 samples to be incorrect.

Over 48 hours, AM is hashing at ~18.75 th/s. Using a larger sample size takes us before the dip, and the numbers are still lower than expected. 120 hours works out to 28.84, and that average is weighted heavily in the first couple of days. Tomorrow (and the next day) will provide us with good insight as to current hashpower over the past 5 days

Regardless, it's fun to talk about and look at the data.

[ianp]

what's the deal with this website?  was it supposed to be the official ASICMiner website and supposed to receive regular updates? - http://www.asicminer.co/about.html

I have asicminer.org / bitfountain.org if anyone is interested in putting something quality there and doing regular updates.  

Would you contact ThickAsThieves, FrankTank, VJain or myself? We would probably be interested.

We're collecting questions from the community, allowing the community to vote, and TAT is submitting them to Friedcat for us. This might be a nice place to post/mirror the info.

Ian

[ianp]

Sold half of its blades to some rich Chinese people who interest to mining business, and received RMB with transaction. Received RMB could prevent exchange this amount of BTC over exchange will absolutely caused a huge price dump...Friedcat a nice guy makes every possibly effort to protecting us.. God bless you ,mate!!!

This is just pro-ASICMINER rhetoric until we can confirm. Information without sources are more harmful than good.

If you have a source, post it.

[mc_lovin]

what's the deal with this website?  was it supposed to be the official ASICMiner website and supposed to receive regular updates? - http://www.asicminer.co/about.html

I have asicminer.org / bitfountain.org if anyone is interested in putting something quality there and doing regular updates. 

Would you contact ThickAsThieves, FrankTank, VJain or myself? We would probably be interested.

We're collecting questions from the community, allowing the community to vote, and TAT is submitting them to Friedcat for us. This might be a nice place to post/mirror the info.

Ian

Sure thing.  You know where to find me! 

[SOSLOVE868]

Sold half of its blades to some rich Chinese people who interest to mining business, and received RMB with transaction. Received RMB could prevent exchange this amount of BTC over exchange will absolutely caused a huge price dump...Friedcat a nice guy makes every possibly effort to protecting us.. God bless you ,mate!!!

This is just pro-ASICMINER rhetoric until we can confirm. Information without sources are more harmful than good.

If you have a source, post it.

Isn't feel I am overstated something by told rhetoric language. just think this is a meaningless , do not take it seriously.

[SmiGueL]

Blue dots incoming!

[oaxaca]

what's the deal with this website?  was it supposed to be the official ASICMiner website and supposed to receive regular updates? - http://www.asicminer.co/about.html

I have asicminer.org / bitfountain.org if anyone is interested in putting something quality there and doing regular updates. 

I have http://asicminerauction.x10.mx/ which features WP auctions if anybody wants it.  While it's a free site which I will give away for free, don't think it doesn't have value...

[nycgoat]

We're not going to 3 BTC guys...

We're going to 3.5 BTC. How long did it stay 2 BTC? Not very. Enthusiasm brings us to a middle-ground. We see 3 BTC. We want 4 BTC. We settle for 3.5 BTC.

At a price of 5 BTC this share gives you a rock solid yearly return of more than 20%. This is from mining alone. Considering the growth potential, the value cannot be undererestimated. Probably in the 10 to 15 range.

on the other hand if every share would be worth 5 BTC, then the company would be worth pretty much 2 000 000 BTC, which is 17 percent of bitcoins in circulation, that would be a lot, some could say too much

It would be worth that much if everyone had paid 5BTC for their shares.  Many people bought and are holding, so they technically bought for much lower.  Even though the company value could be 2,000,000 BTC, that doesn't mean that there are that many BTC tied up in the assets.

[SOSLOVE868]

Did anyone notice that HASHPOWER drooped to 99TH...What happen???

[SmiGueL]

Did anyone notice that HASHPOWER drooped to 99TH...What happen???

Blockchain.info API timeout/error...  

_{*In that case I used 99.99 as a backup... Better than 0 (devide by zero errors etc. )
Now added the bitcoinwatch hashrate as backup too}