ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[binaryFate]

Sorry I miss something, how do we know that we are out of blades?

I guess we don't know for sure, but Friedcat at least is not selling the hardware, he updated the sales thread for that saying they are out of stock.

We were speculating some time ago on the best way to decrease hardware price without having customers with past orders pissed off, or without having people holding on to wait for a price decrease...
Stopping blade sells for some time would feet perfectly into this. Then open again with lower price... much better than sharp change all of a sudden!
So, I'm not sure from the hypothesis "blade sells are stopped now" we can derivate the conclusion "they are out of stock" so easily.

[ThickAsThieves]

If they wanted to reduce price regularly, they could use a formula that factored current difficulty. This would make it "fair" to previous buyers quite dynamically.

[stripykitteh]

If they wanted to reduce price regularly, they could use a formula that factored current difficulty. This would make it "fair" to previous buyers quite dynamically.

Yes, he could. My argument was pure speculation; he must have some good reason for not going that way. A bulk sale to a private buyer sounds plausible but what would I know?

[ThickAsThieves]

If they wanted to reduce price regularly, they could use a formula that factored current difficulty. This would make it "fair" to previous buyers quite dynamically.

Yes, he could. My argument was pure speculation; he must have some good reason for not going that way. A bulk sale to a private buyer sounds plausible but what would I know?

Maybe he sold half the farm too, and will be replacing it with the new ones.

[dhenson]

I'm not quite sure why we are off in the weeds talking about hardware sales when there has been such a drastic drop in Asicminer hash rate.
http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
The network hash rate experienced ~20Th drop and then it was very quickly re-added.

http://blockchain.info/pools
50BTC has had a 4% increase in total network hash rate in the last 3 days.  Asicminer has dropped 5% in the same time period.

Is it possible that friedcat is simply transitioning some solo-mining over to 50BTC and hasn't announced it yet?  Am I mis-reading these charts and coming to an incorrect conclusion?

[Rival]

That was my basic assumption but I did not want to take the slings and arrows for the speculation.

The reduction in AM shares corresponded quite closely with an increase in BTC guild hash share. I immediately postulated that AM moved some amount of hashing from private to BTC guild, but for what reason I could not fathom. It may well be staging for transition to newer eruptors, but once again, not sure what the exact reasoning would be.

[Ozymandias]

That was my basic assumption but I did not want to take the slings and arrows for the speculation.

The reduction in AM shares corresponded quite closely with an increase in BTC guild hash share. I immediately postulated that AM moved some amount of hashing from private to BTC guild, but for what reason I could not fathom. It may well be staging for transition to newer eruptors, but once again, not sure what the exact reasoning would be.

Now that BTCguild has merged mining Namecoins on stratum, it seems like it would be more profitable to point a couple of terahashes/s their way than to keep it all on solo; maybe that's what's going to happen?

[mem]

So he puts blades on sale for a while, then takes them off when they're no longer a good deal. People will learn that if they want AM products, it's best to get in early when the rewards are best, as they'll offer the best return early and won't be on sale forever.

In a few weeks, a refreshed product will come out at a lower price point with better features. Demand will have built up again, and early purchasers will have had a few weeks of less competition from other sales.[/quote[
Seems like a sound plan and sound plans seem to be friedcats forte.

EDIT #2: That's also why I've noticed a lot of AM haters coming out of the woodwork. They look at the AM offering and scoff "how can you pay that much per Ghash? I can get xxx Ghash for $yyy from Company ZZZ. AM customers are all stupid." Those people are not in AM's target market (they really want a gamble, or they are possibly just self-deluded about when they will get their hardware) so they mock anyone who doesn't think the same way they do.

I have to say, after being among those that are feeling a little screwed over from avalon are definitely starting to rethink this heavily.
The fast shipping time means you could possibly end up with a nice usb key that can actually achieve ROI and then happily trickle away (every miners dream).

As of now I wouldn't bother with the usb keys being to late to the game, buuuut I can see myself being up for the next round as soon as he opens orders.

any clue why am is 9% as of now ?

Steady decline over the last 5 days..

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=120,96,72,48,24

handy link, thanks

c) some large player put in an EPIC buy order and bought ASICMINER out of blades, and this weeks div will be the most amazing thing ever.

I'm optimistic about this...

Im going close my eyes and wish real hard on thursday

[SOSLOVE868]

The most reasonable reason regard to this instantly drop of hashpower ,is Friedcat might sold half of its blades to a private buyers who will pay him directly by cash, if so ,then we will received a highest dividend ever...and another assumption is he operating his farm in different location, and one of this location had some work like network upgrade or electricity shock off, In China , especially in summer time , the electricity supply is often stop work due to the hot weather, everybody uses of air conditioner caused huge  pressure on the electricity supply network, then the government will cut electricity supply to some industrial district.
 Personally,I believe the assumption of pending electricity supply is most believable, because I saw the news reported China is currently suffered extremely hot weather, some areas hit record high  Celsius above 40. We know that ASICMINER is a company operating in Shenzhen China, and Shenzhen is  in southern side China, which is warmest place over China.

I think everyone here, do not start panic selling, in case both assumptions are not pessimistic.

[ianp]

handy link, thanks

No problem. I'm working on creating a large amount of historical data for SmiGueL to use over at asicminercharts.com.

Ian

[mem]

I think everyone here, do not start panic selling, in case both assumptions are not pessimistic.

correction: do start panic selling, Im waiting @ the bottom for your sell orders.

[SOSLOVE868]

I think everyone here, do not start panic selling, in case both assumptions are not pessimistic.

correction: do start panic selling, Im waiting @ the bottom for your sell orders.

Yes...I should change it , everyone start panic selling right now...I am waiting @ the bottom...

[TaxReturn]

I think everyone here, do not start panic selling, in case both assumptions are not pessimistic.

correction: do start panic selling, Im waiting @ the bottom for your sell orders.

It looks like someone on btct sold TAT.AMs all the way down to 0.025121... and I had no buy orders in :/

[SOSLOVE868]

I think everyone here, do not start panic selling, in case both assumptions are not pessimistic.

correction: do start panic selling, Im waiting @ the bottom for your sell orders.

It looks like someone on btct sold TAT.AMs all the way down to 0.025121... and I had no buy orders in :/

It will be a tough day to selling AM-PT at 2.89 level... the price will significantly dump because of the hashrate drooped.

[Mastergerund]

The most reasonable reason regard to this instantly drop of hashpower ,is Friedcat ...

I'm going to disagree. The most reasonable reason is variance. The hashpower is unchanged, but the luck is a little bad for a few hours. The charts calculate hashpower based on blocks found, not based on actual hashpower. A decline in luck for AM can easily correspond with an increase in luck for a major pool.

Now, for the last time, can we stop discussing why hashpower changed over any period shorter than 3 days?  If you think hashpower changed, ask yourself what time period the change is over. If it's less than 3 days, the MOST likely explanation is variance. If it's greater than 3 days, then you can start speculating about hardware being moved, planned slowdown before difficulty reset, etc.

It feels like we have this discussion every 7-10 pages in this thread.

Variance.

Again, variance.

Again, variance.

[finlof]

what's the deal with this website?  was it supposed to be the official ASICMiner website and supposed to receive regular updates? - http://www.asicminer.co/about.html

[SOSLOVE868]

The most reasonable reason regard to this instantly drop of hashpower ,is Friedcat ...

I'm going to disagree. The most reasonable reason is variance. The hashpower is unchanged, but the luck is a little bad for a few hours. The charts calculate hashpower based on blocks found, not based on actual hashpower. A decline in luck for AM can easily correspond with an increase in luck for a major pool.

Now, for the last time, can we stop discussing why hashpower changed over any period shorter than 3 days?  If you think hashpower changed, ask yourself what time period the change is over. If it's less than 3 days, the MOST likely explanation is variance. If it's greater than 3 days, then you can start speculating about hardware being moved, planned slowdown before difficulty reset, etc.

It feels like we have this discussion every 7-10 pages in this thread.

Variance.

Again, variance.

Again, variance.

Oh, yes ,variance ...I hope this situation will stop soon...get luck back AM...I do not sure about how those chart derive AM's hashpower, but a 10 % variance is just too extreme, I rather than believe there are suffered pending electricity supply .

[VeeMiner]

what's the deal with this website?  was it supposed to be the official ASICMiner website and supposed to receive regular updates? - http://www.asicminer.co/about.html

nope, some fan started it up and then stopped updating it

[Equilux]

The most reasonable reason regard to this instantly drop of hashpower ,is Friedcat ...

I'm going to disagree. The most reasonable reason is variance. The hashpower is unchanged, but the luck is a little bad for a few hours. The charts calculate hashpower based on blocks found, not based on actual hashpower. A decline in luck for AM can easily correspond with an increase in luck for a major pool.

Now, for the last time, can we stop discussing why hashpower changed over any period shorter than 3 days?  If you think hashpower changed, ask yourself what time period the change is over. If it's less than 3 days, the MOST likely explanation is variance. If it's greater than 3 days, then you can start speculating about hardware being moved, planned slowdown before difficulty reset, etc.

It feels like we have this discussion every 7-10 pages in this thread.

Variance.

Again, variance.

Again, variance.

While i think you are generally right, I would argue that this time variance does not seem to adequately explain the current drop; http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/ 24h average is WAY down, 3 day average is also down by a large percentage, and even the 7 day average has made an unprecedented dip.

[stripykitteh]

Selling blades in bulk for cash would make a lot of sense if some NRE costs are coming up for the next generation of chips, seeing as those costs must be paid in cash (selling a ton of BTC to raise RMB might be problematic). If that is the case we won't see the dividend pop, but it will all be cool nonetheless.