New Diff thread Mar 22 to Apr. 5 not ready for prime time

[suchmoon]

I believe it was an upgrade of a farm and some good luck stacked in on that.

I think upgrades and new installations are happening, just perhaps not 25 PH/s at a time. Difficulty has gone up 20-30% in the last ~6 months, when it used to jump that much in a single cycle in early 2014. So I think we're in a more of a steady growth period if BTC price stays where it is.

[GenTarkin]

I believe it was an upgrade of a farm and some good luck stacked in on that.

I think upgrades and new installations are happening, just perhaps not 25 PH/s at a time. Difficulty has gone up 20-30% in the last ~6 months, when it used to jump that much in a single cycle in early 2014. So I think we're in a more of a steady growth period if BTC price stays where it is.

Yeah, diff has simply slowed down a lot due to the price being so low, if btc was still $1300 ... diff would most likely be a couple hundred billion by now. IIRC when btc price was its highest AM had announced projections of bringing 2EHASH of hardware online within a year. Which, thankfully never happened. Falling prices curbed them real fast!
Like I always say, mining follows price. So far thats proven nothing but true. Its already happened w/ LTC.

[adaseb]

Finally some "bad" luck with some pools. Yesterday was flat. And today is -15%

Antpool still seems to be doing better than its supposed to (green line is the "supposed to").



So I'm gonna say - variance . Bitcoinwisdom charts are diving down. The spike was tall and wide so it's definitely going have an impact on this cycle's difficulty, but I don't think it will be anywhere near 10%.

Thats a nice chart, where did you get it from?

[suchmoon]

Thats a nice chart, where did you get it from?

It's from Hashnest, I have a few GH/s there. Hashnest miners are all pointed at Antpool, so their charts reflect Antpool earnings. You need an account though to see it.

https://www.hashnest.com/hash_currencies/23/income

[notlist3d]

Interesting that bitwisdom did go down:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,717,549,645
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,767,555,969 (+6.53%)
Adjust time:    After 815 Blocks, About 5.2 days

I would love for it to be in the 6's at this point.  The day before some pools did have some insane luck.  Antpool did amazing.

[ezeminer]

Interesting that bitwisdom did go down:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,717,549,645
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,767,555,969 (+6.53%)
Adjust time:    After 815 Blocks, About 5.2 days

I would love for it to be in the 6's at this point.  The day before some pools did have some insane luck.  Antpool did amazing.

Even the solo ckpool got two blocks in the last couple days, which is wild.

Hopefully we see the difficulty stay down. We jumped from like 380PH to 335PH in the last couple of days as well.

[TheAnalogKid]

My opinion is variance coupled with Bitmain.

BMT is supposed to start shipping B5 S5's today, right?  It's coincidence that a week before they ship we see a pretty good spike in hashrate, which was relatively short lived.  Also a coincidence that Antpool did really well for a few days, good luck run.  I'm not a huge believer in coincidences.

Could be they were testing the units preparing to ship them, as well as trying to gain a few extra BTC by running the units for a day or two before sending them out the door.

Would only take about 25,000 units to pop up the rate by an extra 30PH, which I would assume is within the realm of possibility.

Now, that being said, if this speculation is true, how will that affect us in the near term?  Obviously if they're shipping out another 30PH or so worth of gear we'll see upwards of a 10% diff adjustment going when it's powered on, if it's meant to be new equipment.  If a good portion of it is to be able to replace and retire older, more inefficient hardware, then the diff adjustment would be a little less and even out to probably 4-7% given a 30-50% replacement rate.

[Mikestang]

Now, that being said, if this speculation is true, how will that affect us in the near term?  Obviously if they're shipping out another 30PH or so worth of gear we'll see upwards of a 10% diff adjustment going when it's powered on, if it's meant to be new equipment.  If a good portion of it is to be able to replace and retire older, more inefficient hardware, then the diff adjustment would be a little less and even out to probably 4-7% given a 30-50% replacement rate.

I have a feeling it's mostly the latter, replacing old gear.  I think you might be onto something about that initial spike in relation to the S5 batch, that would explain it.  With summer in the north coming up hopefully difficulty will slow down a bit.

[notlist3d]

Now, that being said, if this speculation is true, how will that affect us in the near term?  Obviously if they're shipping out another 30PH or so worth of gear we'll see upwards of a 10% diff adjustment going when it's powered on, if it's meant to be new equipment.  If a good portion of it is to be able to replace and retire older, more inefficient hardware, then the diff adjustment would be a little less and even out to probably 4-7% given a 30-50% replacement rate.

I have a feeling it's mostly the latter, replacing old gear.  I think you might be onto something about that initial spike in relation to the S5 batch, that would explain it.  With summer in the north coming up hopefully difficulty will slow down a bit.

What I wish we knew was who it is.  Companies are quiet so we really nave no idea where the gear is popping up at.

If it is someone replacing with gear we don't know chips they were using.  Would be nice to know if they are new gen or not.

[philipma1957]

Now, that being said, if this speculation is true, how will that affect us in the near term?  Obviously if they're shipping out another 30PH or so worth of gear we'll see upwards of a 10% diff adjustment going when it's powered on, if it's meant to be new equipment.  If a good portion of it is to be able to replace and retire older, more inefficient hardware, then the diff adjustment would be a little less and even out to probably 4-7% given a 30-50% replacement rate.

I have a feeling it's mostly the latter, replacing old gear.  I think you might be onto something about that initial spike in relation to the S5 batch, that would explain it.  With summer in the north coming up hopefully difficulty will slow down a bit.

It is most likely upgrading gear. Many of us keep the  power footprint the same to cut cost of the upgrade.

For an example:

3x  s-3's = 1200 watts and 1.5 th on 1 evga 1300 g2

2x  s-5's = 1200 watts and  2.3th on 1 evga 1300 g2

I think a lot of the above has happened.  but that is not enough for this spike.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  KNC or  Bitfury   did an upgrade of gear. Or one of the new players fired up a farm.

 I track sales for bitmaintech via known bitmaintech  btc address's  they sold under 3000 s-5's since they opened sales back up.

This is just the btc sales so 2x that and 5500 s-5's is the  max they sold.  that is 6ph  or 6.6ph  the jump is  25-30ph if 0 luck helped.

Say 20ph with some luck.  So 20ph- 7 ph = 13ph  maybe 20ph in big farm upgrades or startups.

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+5.83%)  691 blocks to go

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211  (7.28%)

https://www.coinbase.com/charts  price = 245 usd for a btc


7 people seem to have a shot and 9 open slots in the same area  so we may have a carry over.

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta

   -----1 Open Slot ---------

+5.76 to +6.00 alh 
+6.01 to +6.25 freedomno1


----- 6 Open Slots -------


+7.76 to +8.00 armedmilitia

--- 2 open slots---------

+8.51 to +8.75 zebedee--------------------A switch from (+2.26 to +2.50)
+8.76 to +9.00 Last of the V8s

[mavericklm]

wasn't the deadline on 29?

looks to be around 5 to 6%, purrrrrrrfect!

[suchmoon]

wasn't the deadline on 29?

looks to be around 5 to 6%, purrrrrrrfect!

The deadline for reward entries, yes. Doesn't mean we can't speculate

[notlist3d]

wasn't the deadline on 29?

looks to be around 5 to 6%, purrrrrrrfect!

The deadline for reward entries, yes. Doesn't mean we can't speculate

We can speculate

Spreadsheet right now shows around 7.7 percent

Bitwisdom shows:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,717,549,645
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,488,903,824 (+5.93%)
Adjust time:    After 676 Blocks, About 4.4 days

Slowly they are reaching each other. It seems like it will be mid 6 to low 7 i would guess.

[philipma1957]

Bitwisdom and spreadsheet seem to be apart pretty far.  Which one is more accurate long term like now?

in this case I would blend the 2 and get an average. Then lean on the high side of the average.

So

 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  --------------------------------------------------------------------->>>>>>>>>>>>(+2.00%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211 -->(+10.40%)

is a 6.20% for an average.

 Lean high  6.66 to 7.77  If I was really trying to pick today. I would look in between  those numbers.

If I was really trying to win the contest instead of always picking -1.11%

 I would grab a 7.01 to 7.25  I watch a lot the next 2 days and adjust on the 28th.

I like your number of 6 I hope it comes closer to it.  That with a negative last time, would not be to bad.

Now if we could only get BTC price up some.

Anyone that followed this post  is very close right now>

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+5.97%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+7.92%)

[geforcelover]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+5.83%)  691 blocks to go

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211  (7.28%)

https://www.coinbase.com/charts  price = 245 usd for a btc


7 people seem to have a shot and 9 open slots in the same area  so we may have a carry over.

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta

   -----1 Open Slot ---------

I,d like to select between this @philip

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+5.83%)  691 blocks to go

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211  (7.28%)

https://www.coinbase.com/charts  price = 245 usd for a btc


7 people seem to have a shot and 9 open slots in the same area  so we may have a carry over.

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta

   -----1 Open Slot ---------

I,d like to select between this @philip

 Sorry the last time to pick was the 29th of March. 


Next contest/promo will start  on the next diff.  say april 5th or 4th.

you will have about 4 days to pick say april 9th. Feel free to read and follow this one. Then make a free pick for the next one.

[alh]

Maybe you just want to call it early at 5.97%.....

Just a thought!

[HerbPean]

I wish i had stick to my usual 4,20% !!!!

Never again i will change my mind

[notlist3d]

I wish i had stick to my usual 4,20% !!!!

Never again i will change my mind

My original was negative.... so I'm feeling good about my switch .  Guess I was to optimistic.