WTF is going on with bitcoin?? What happened to the crazy roller coaster ride where one morning I wake up it went down 30%.... the next morning it goes up 70%, and the next day another 30% increase... it used to feel so awesome. Now BTC is just floating around $1000 even with all the hype and more media coverage than ever. Every morning I look at the charts and get disappointed. Hell I would even prefer it to go down below $1000 lot so I can buy more.
I came in for the high risk / high reward (and i understand BTC's potential), did not expect it to stabilize at $1000/btc. This is boring as f*ck seriously. No I'm not gonna invest in ALT coins.
Can't tell if you are trolling or being serious. The red font makes me think you are serious. |
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Does this rally not look tired to anyone here?
We are just slowing down in this altitude. There is no real upward momentum.
Wednesday is almost over and we have retraced most of the highs. But what happens now? We just shoot up into the stratosphere?
I still have my doubts. Becoming a more modest bull at the moment.
Emotionally, I am feeling quite similar to you. But just looking at the technicals, it's doing a pretty standard thing I believe. Of course past patterns don't have to be repeated in the future, but often after a correction, we would go up slowly again, plateau for a while at the previous ATH (for like the next day, maybe 2), and then shoot up rapidly. It's natural to get nervous/paranoid when the price goes up so quickly, even if you're confident in the underlying asset/currency. Realize what is rational though given context, news, momentum, etc. Oh, and change in perception (media angles, finance world, public comments....). I am not nervous. I am tired and somewhat in doubt of my judgement at the moment. Perhaps lack of sleep due to a non-bitcoin-related matter plays a role in this. |
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Does this rally not look tired to anyone here?
We are just slowing down in this altitude. There is no real upward momentum.
Wednesday is almost over and we have retraced most of the highs. But what happens now? We just shoot up into the stratosphere?
I still have my doubts. Becoming a more modest bull at the moment.
Emotionally, I am feeling quite similar to you. But just looking at the technicals, it's doing a pretty standard thing I believe. Of course past patterns don't have to be repeated in the future, but often after a correction, we would go up slowly again, plateau for a while at the previous ATH (for like the next day, maybe 2), and then shoot up rapidly. |
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People, this is OLD news !
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Seriously, is there any place where these things can be shorted? This or other altcoins (except for litecoin, which I know can be shorted). Put options would be preferable to normal shorting.
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No, it still didn't show up. I had 15.8 usd in my trading balance, i tried transfering that entire amt to exchange acct, and it only transfered 1.8 over, and the rest just disappeared. but the 14 still shows up in the trading balance but in manage wallet it is 0 and i can't transfer anything to exchange acct.
also, as you can see, i should have 3.91 btc's... not 3.90093237 btc's
Do you have any open orders? |
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very few people will be able to buy 25 BTC.
seeing as 25BTC is currently $27k in today's money, i'd say very few people would be able or willing to buy them today. And that's the cause of this poor distribution of bitcoins among people:
blockchain statistics of 02/12/2013:......................
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number %of tot %of active value %of value
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vuoti (0 BTC) 20297507 90.2199% 0.00000 0.0000%
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 405151 1.8008% 18.41% 0.00405 0.0000%
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 774458 3.4424% 35.20% 140.28490 0.0012%
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 598294 2.6593% 27.19% 12872.65350 0.1067%
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 211832 0.9416% 9.63% 99384.50831 0.8238%
> 1 BTC <= 10 BTC 116990 0.5200% 5.32% 444999.50509 3.6884%
> 10 BTC <= 100 BTC 83350 0.3705% 3.79% 3485467.93053 28.8898%
> 100 btc <= 1000 BTC 9140 0.0406% 0.42% 2866193.30666 23.7569%
> 1000 BTC 1101 0.0049% 0.05% 5155640.66483 42.7333%
Total Active 2200316 9.7801% 100.00% 12064698.85759 100.0000%
Total 22497823 100.0000% 12064698.85759 100.0000%
We have an even worse distribution than 2 years ago: the 50% of bitcoins are hold by less than 1% of the addresses, and more than 90% of the bitcoins are hold by less then 5% (in 2011 80% was hold by 10%) and the poorest addresses (<1% of total bitcoins) grow from 30-40% to near 90%. You do realize that some of the big addresses could be exchanges and other businesses, right? |
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Does anybody offer something like Put Options on this thing? I want to buy a truckload.
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I think a fee of 0.1 mBTC makes more sense than 0.0001 BTC, especially if it would be lowered further. People are going to lose time counting all the zeros and double-checking. It's impractical.
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If I don't put this here, somebody else surely will  :  |
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Bitcoin has zero counterparty risk? Not true. To cash out and use the money for buying a car, house, taxes, food, schooling, etc, the bitcoin holder must have someone to sell to. If no one turns up to buy those bitcoins then the holder just has a bit of worthless data. That's a counterparty risk, although of a slightly different nature to say, a bank going bankrupt and taking all the money.
Bitcoin has another counterparty risk coming up in the next few years. If bitcoin becomes popular enough for even a tiny percentage of the world's population to use it daily, the blockchain will become enormous. There will be few people willing to store terabytes of data on their computer just to send and receive bitcoins. The data and wallets will be kept in the hands of relatively few companies. Better hope they're good and honest.
You're discussing currency risk. I.e. the risk that the currency value fluctuates. However given a global currency with a fixed and declining rate of inflation the currency risk is probably lower than just about any other currency you can hold. Meh, I think bitcoin is still a lot riskier than fiat. We still have to see how everything works out. |
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Wow, big buy on Gox (17 btc).
Oh, who am I kidding. It's dead out there..
I thought there was mad action going on, then i realized bitcoinity shows everything in mBTC now  . |
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Put yourself in the bitcoin millionaire's shoes. Option 1: "cash out" thereby deliberately entrusting your new fortune to a counterparty; Option 2: "stand pat" and continue to enjoy zero counterparty risk.
Bitcoin has zero counterparty risk? Not true. To cash out and use the money for buying a car, house, taxes, food, schooling, etc, the bitcoin holder must have someone to sell to. If no one turns up to buy those bitcoins then the holder just has a bit of worthless data. That's a counterparty risk, although of a slightly different nature to say, a bank going bankrupt and taking all the money. Bitcoin has another counterparty risk coming up in the next few years. If bitcoin becomes popular enough for even a tiny percentage of the world's population to use it daily, the blockchain will become enormous. There will be few people willing to store terabytes of data on their computer just to send and receive bitcoins. The data and wallets will be kept in the hands of relatively few companies. Better hope they're good and honest. You are talking about risks, not counterparty risk, imo. A bitcoin in your personal wallet will always be a bitcoin in your personal wallet, and provided you took the necessary safety precautions, its not going anywhere. |
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They should use compounding. It is common practice to do so and misleading not to. I didn't realize this until just now, and I've been lending for 10 months (I didn't do the calculations because my interest rates were often very different - only more recently have I been loaning out 100% at the flash rate)!
There is no such thing as "Rate (% per 365 days)". This is a term that BFX has invented with an unclear definition and may be another English language mistake (recall the earlier site slogan which made absolutely zero sense in English). If they wanted to give a rate for the day, they should call it per day - not per year (and list the APR in parentheses so that you can see both)! I strongly recommend showing the APR!
The commonly used term is APR and there is an accepted way to calculate it.
I could possibly see that compounding wouldn't make as much sense for borrowers who are doing short-term loans, but it sure makes a lot of sense for the lenders - especially with auto-lend. And it looks like many of the borrowers are doing fairly long-term loans.
I honestly don't see the issue here. For the borrower, it shows the percentage per day in the margin trade tab. For the lender, in the lending tab it shows you how many percent you get if the loan you issue stays in place for a year. I see nobody being misled here. Your interest payments are not automatically re-incorporated into the loan, nobody can promise you that you will get the same rate for them. Whether you do autolend or buy BTC with the interest depends on your own choice. Sure, APR is calculated differently for your bank account, but it's a different kind of product, where the funds automatically get reinvested (and the bank guarantees a certain return). Dude, do you need a job?  Giancarlo Bitfinex Team Lol  , thanks but no thanks, I just got a new one (unless you are offering me mad cash of course ). |
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Edit: How do you make these images smaller when you repost them? Try quoting my post and check it out. Good thing bitcoinity dev is doing something, because the price action is boring... |
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They should use compounding. It is common practice to do so and misleading not to. I didn't realize this until just now, and I've been lending for 10 months (I didn't do the calculations because my interest rates were often very different - only more recently have I been loaning out 100% at the flash rate)!
There is no such thing as "Rate (% per 365 days)". This is a term that BFX has invented with an unclear definition and may be another English language mistake (recall the earlier site slogan which made absolutely zero sense in English). If they wanted to give a rate for the day, they should call it per day - not per year (and list the APR in parentheses so that you can see both)! I strongly recommend showing the APR!
The commonly used term is APR and there is an accepted way to calculate it.
I could possibly see that compounding wouldn't make as much sense for borrowers who are doing short-term loans, but it sure makes a lot of sense for the lenders - especially with auto-lend. And it looks like many of the borrowers are doing fairly long-term loans.
I honestly don't see the issue here. For the borrower, it shows the percentage per day in the margin trade tab. For the lender, in the lending tab it shows you how many percent you get if the loan you issue stays in place for a year. I see nobody being misled here. Your interest payments are not automatically re-incorporated into the loan, nobody can promise you that you will get the same rate for them. Whether you do autolend or buy BTC with the interest depends on your own choice. Sure, APR is calculated differently for your bank account, but it's a different kind of product, where the funds automatically get reinvested (and the bank guarantees a certain return). |
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Are you sure that is coming from other people and not coin tumblers or something of the sort? Lots of people begging for coins there:) And this: Public Note: Algerian prinCe, pUre unOBTAINium SHARE, B4 Culture requIres me to pay 5.55 btc, RegretFUlly Gorillaz ate wallet, leNd me COIN i will RE-PAY you ASAP, trust U share with fellow *Wo*MAN IN NEED... Know U red-it & know Y wii-CU Only in bitcoinland .... |
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He could cash out quickly, and put downwards pressure on the price, or he could wait for years in order for people to lose interest, which would remove coins from circulation and be bullish. Or a combination of both. We just don't know.
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Are they compounding the interest or not?
The fact that they give an APR (interest for 365 days) makes me think that they should be using compounding. This is standard practice in the loan and banking sectors. Thus your daily interest rate should not be the annual rate divided by the number of days. It should be lower.
For example, if you are earning $25 interest on $10,000 that is 0.0025 rate of interest per day.
With compounding interest (and reinvestment), at the end of one year you will have
1.0025^365 = 2.4877
Which is an APR of 148.77%.
Whereas (without compounding) 0.0025*365= 91.25%.
This example excludes the 10% commission to make things simpler and to focus on the difference between using compounded and non-compounded interest.
They are not compounding the interest for the APR. Relending your interest payments is your own choice. |
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the fact that max has mentioned quark coin has pretty much convinced me that he's in the game for the sole purpose pumping and dumping. i'll watch his videos, but fuck him.. i don't think he's some sort of angel.
true, I noticed he follows a pumper on twitter.. https://twitter.com/fontaseKeiser is a pumper allright, no surprise there. Are you talking about max keiser? what is this twitter? are they manipulating the market? yes, Max Keiser, I don't follow his twitter. I doubt Keiser is big enough to sufficiently manipulate "the" market in a huge way, but I nevertheless think he buys before he start going in full-on hype mode, and then sells. And he probably has enough followers that it might make a difference. Thanks for explaining, i thought he'd have enough money to not even be bothered about bitcoin but wanted to preach it for the good. So now i have to look at him as a profiteer and not for the good of bitcoin? That is my view yes. I am pretty darn sure he buys the stuff with his own money. To what degree he tells himself that he is in it for the right reasons, or whether he truly sees himself as a pumper, that I am not so sure of. Some people can be very good in deluding themselves with all kinds of rationalisations while taking the route that benefits them the most money-wise. |
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