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All we need is a billionaire to step in and say he'll buy every bitcoin in existence for $50, or $100, or whatever he has enough cash to cover. Boom - price never drops below that $$ amount.
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*shrug*
Just another day in the BTC world. I'm holding.
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Looks like $105 might have been the MtGox bottom... on the way up again...!
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 Also, price is still higher than it was 2 days ago. It would have to drop below $100 to get us back to March territory. |
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SgtSpike: ok. Have you considered the possibility that the bubble might pop before July 1st? You might want to get 20 BTC now rather than 40 BTC later. As they say, 1 bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush  I have considered said possibility. Thanks anyway. |
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Once again, HOW did you lose 15,000 Bitcoins? Did you gamble it away? Did you get robbed? What?
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SgtSpike: I am willing to buy you out.
I am incredibly busy right now, and do not have time to look up all the details, but can you confirm that Micon vs. you is the same bet as Micon vs. me, except the power requirement which is 150+ Mhash/J (Micon vs. you) instead of 350+ Mhash/J (Micon vs. me) ? If that is the case, yes I will definitely buy your 20 BTC share.
Micon: after I buy SgtSpike out, I can add more coins.
Mrb, thanks for the offer. After talking to my wife, we have decided to keep the bet full on! Fact: No BFL will make up for the money they payed for their ASICs.
Check the difficulty increase and anticipate a much bigger one when the new Avalons role out. Also take into calculation that avalon will mine first with their product before releasing them and also keep some of their asics back for personal use. You will have to mine a year or longer to get your initial investment back and you dont know how long those asics will run before they break apart.
The only ones who made money out of this project are those who have Avalons batch#1 and batch#2 and those who sold their Avalon Miners shares for a huge profit to the community. (noone who bought those shares for $2 / GH will make any money too)
Maybe speaking in terms of USD, but in terms of BTC, all the ASICs they (and Avalon) will be shipping will be wildly profitable. |
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As someone who has owned four Miatas in the past 10 years, including a Spec Miata, I also concur.
I also instruct for several High Performance Driver's Education schools, and if you've never been to a track before, I promise you that I can lap you with a Miata no matter what car you bring.
As someone who has ridden a bike for 10 years, I can promise you I can beat you in a race if you have never ridden a bike before.... But seriously, I can't even fit into an MX5 (as they call them in Europe), I'm 6-2 and 260lbs. And I'm pretty sure if I did fit, I'd be lagging behind due to the power to weight ratio suddenly falling through the floor carrying my fat ass around. My track car of choice is a 2002 Audi S3, spent quite a bit on it already. Running around 300bhp at the moment. Considering on ripping put the rear seats because if I get 4 people in the wheels rub, so might as well get rid of the seats! As a 6'0" 175lb person, I can imagine... Also, neat that there's two spec miata racers here! Did I bring you over from miata.net or something?  its painful to see folks driving cars like this that will never even try to get close to their limits Oh my, yes!! |
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I've spoken with my wife about this, and we've agreed to keep the bet as it is.  |
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How did you lose 15,000 BTC? Gambling? Or...?
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If I may suggest if the price has gone from $200 to $10000, a suggestion of reducing the bet may be more reasonable. Clearly each of you still think you're +EV to win, so I doubt a buyout one way or the other would work. For example if you both went from 20 BTC on both sides to 2 BTC on each side, you'd be essentially doubling the bet in fiat terms from the original, but lowering your exposure now. Saying that - Micon seems to have the risk tolerance to bet that big while SgtSpike doesn't (nothing wrong with that), so it would mean Micon has to agree to lower what he perceives to be +EV gain for the sake of being nice. Wouldn't blame him if he didn't. Obviously up to you guys what you do though pretty much all the fun for me in these bets is firing something relatively small and then all the sudden have some really big wager on something you originally were confident in. there will certainly be no reductions of wagers & I'm actively trying to bet more. Micon - I would like to offer you the opportunity to buy out of our bet for 5 BTC. So, of the 40 BTC we bet, I receive 35 BTC, you receive 5 BTC, and we call off the bet. I doubt you'll take me up on this, but you never know, so... there's the offer. Wow if you are that confident lets bet more on it, then u can sell those bets too. Will do up to 100 coins more on it No, the idea is to REDUCE the gamble, not increase it! Lemme get this straight - you think you are going to easily win but wont bet more on it? Yes. It is too much money to gamble with. I am not much of a gambling man. $200 was a reasonable gamble. $10,000 is not. And even though I do believe there is a very good chance BFL will deliver by July 1st, the small chance that they might not is killing me. Now I think I understand. Judging by how this thread went: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=171479.0 it appears that you want to salvage whatever equity you currently have in this bet, as 40 coins is now a large sum. Instead of offering something insulting, when this situation arises in the gambling world the guy that appears to be losing asks for a buyout. Sometimes they come to terms and the bet is settled early. Of course we're all greedy humans, but you couldn't really think I was going to take a price as if BFL had uploaded pix of Josh driving all 500 units each day to the post office. And you *really* couldn't think that someone would buy your bet instead of betting me fresh. I'm posting everywhere that I want an extra 100 coins on this. With me they would bet 30 coins to win 30 coins. with you they would bet 30 coins to win 10 coins. Yep - now that you've posted your 1:1 bet on the same terms that we have our bet under, it is pointless for me to try to mitigate that risk by selling it off to anyone. |
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I wanted some community input on this just for fun:
I'm at a point where I have a 1/2oz silver coin die done that says 5 BITCOINS. But 5 BTC is now worth a hell of a lot more than it was when I started.
I almost want to start over and do 1oz=1BTC 1/2oz=1/2BTC and a smaller coin for 0.1 BTC... all in silver, and offer each (at least the biggest one or two) with the optional gold plated B like I did last time.
Do I run some coins with the 5 BITCOINS die, or just scrap it? It will seem kind of weird having a 5 and a 0.5 BTC coin that are, well, alike in every way, including the year 2013, and I'm tempted to just scrap the die.
I agree, that does seem weird. Have you done any prototypes of said 5 BTC coin? If so, could auction them off as collectors items and just leave it at that. |
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I will bring the price down to 30 BTC. I don't think 35 BTC is enough of a premium to generate any interest.
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Micon - I would like to offer you the opportunity to buy out of our bet for 5 BTC. So, of the 40 BTC we bet, I receive 35 BTC, you receive 5 BTC, and we call off the bet. I doubt you'll take me up on this, but you never know, so... there's the offer. Wow if you are that confident lets bet more on it, then u can sell those bets too. Will do up to 100 coins more on it No, the idea is to REDUCE the gamble, not increase it! Lemme get this straight - you think you are going to easily win but wont bet more on it? Yes. It is too much money to gamble with. I am not much of a gambling man. $200 was a reasonable gamble. $10,000 is not. And even though I do believe there is a very good chance BFL will deliver by July 1st, the small chance that they might not is killing me. |
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Help me understand...
Sgt Spike put up BTC20 on a bet of whether BFL will ship product.
But wants to sell his potential loss of BTC20 for BTC35.
Is that right?
Correction: I want to sell the likely win of 40 BTC for 35 BTC. |
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SgtSpike,
I wouldn't mind a slice of that pie.
Would you consider taking on a few "silent partners", rather than trying to get out of the bet altogether?
H24
Certainly. M/M,
The BTC40 is the total # of BTC involved.
Sgt put up 20, Micon put up 20.
Spec products delivered by 7/1/2013.
Wow, the Non Com is pretty aggressive then. I would think about 10 would be fair given BFL_Steven's latest "rumor that cannot be confirmed" I am open to offers. 35 BTC is what seems fair to me, but feel free to offer whatever seems fair to you. |
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Micon - I would like to offer you the opportunity to buy out of our bet for 5 BTC. So, of the 40 BTC we bet, I receive 35 BTC, you receive 5 BTC, and we call off the bet. I doubt you'll take me up on this, but you never know, so... there's the offer. Wow if you are that confident lets bet more on it, then u can sell those bets too. Will do up to 100 coins more on it No, the idea is to REDUCE the gamble, not increase it! |
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Yes, we may get a nasty crash tomorrow, and it's absolutely correct that everyone needs to be mindful of past manias and history. Good post OP.
And good points about valuation. On that note, I'd like to point out that we're NOT EVEN CLOSE to the sort of mania that happened in the .com bubble. Bitcoin's "market cap" (we really need a better term - no one likes my "Aggregate Fiat Valuation" (AFV) suggestion) is only $2B. If it achieves even niche global usage (even *just* black market), it'll need to be at least an order of magnitude larger. Likewise if it achieves safe-haven usage at 1/100th the scale of gold.
So, personally, I like to use relatively conservative (albeit really fuzzy) "fundamentals" numbers to put the parabolic chart into perspective against the process of bootstrapping the world's first global currency from zero.
Not even close is right. The Dot-com bubble had $1.3T invested in the publicly traded internet companies. So, we need another 500x rise to get there. |
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Yeah, everyone likes different cars I guess.
I prefer Mercedes Benz, but BMW M5 is really nice. I bet that Porsch is not bad too, but I literally know a mom of my friend who drives the same. She looks hot in it, and she's 48.
Just sayin'.
After driving a Miata for almost 10 years now, I've learned to be completely immune to any and all girly-car comments and make/model stereotypes. There's a reason it's the most-tracked car in America... They're freaking fun to drive! And that's just about all I care about. Moral of the story? M5, MB, Porsche, Miata, whatever - screw all the haters and drive what you want to drive. |
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