... If you produce one wafer it's several millions dollars. ...
Setup cost is high - but not in the millions. If you produce a million wafers it's more like $5 per wafer.
No. It's more like 50.000$ per lot (=50 wafers). At least this is what I can remember when working for a semiconductor manufacturer (ASICS). But that's 20 years ago ... I'm an old fart now. |
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... it does indeed seem possible that the BFL single can provide 40GH/s at 60W on a 130 nm process.
Assuming your data is correct, one Jalapeno (3.5GH/s) would need 5.25 Watt. But a USB port provides only 2.5 Watt. Hmmm ... |
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What do you think? Does the Bitcoin market function like every other (stock) market? Can technical analysis tools be used to forecast market trends?
E.g. Elliott Waves, lines of support, resistance, channels, and more obscure formations such as flags, pennants, balance days and cup and handle patterns.
Do you guys use technical analysis on e.g. MtGox?
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(1) Do you know how markets work? A thing is worth what someone else is willing to pay for it.
You can't seriously be asking what will happen to the value of bitcoin when a particular event happens after people have already stopped using it and aren't ever going to use it. If nobody uses Bitcoin, its value is zero, regardless of all other factors. Bitcoin has value only because people are, in fact, using it right now. Some are using it to buy things and some are using it as a speculative investment, but it doesn't matter what they're using it for; as long as Bitcoin is useful for something, it has value. D'oh! Seriously dude! Goto(1)If someone is willing to pay 50$ for my poo then my poo is worth 50$. |
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Just because there are places where Bitcoins could be spent does not mean people do use them.
Right. People are paying over $10 for something that they're not actually planning on ever using. That makes perfect sense.  Remember the dot-com bubble? Remember e.g. InfoSpace? In March 2000 this stock reached a price $1,305 per share, but by April 2001 its price had crashed down to $22 a share. According to your logic: People were paying over $1,305 per share for something that they're not actually planning on ever using. That makes perfect sense.Or have a look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania. Do you know how markets work? A thing is worth what someone else is willing to pay for it. |
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What will happen to Bitcoins, or more specific, to the price of a Bitcoin, once all 21 million are created?
... absolutely nothing will happen, since by that time the block subsidy will have already been an insignificant fraction of mining rewards ... (1) Assuming Bitcoins are widely used by then, there will be lots of trades - and lots of transaction fees. ... or ... (2) Assuming no one will use Bitcoins, there will be no transaction fees. I'll bet on option 2 There are already many places where you can spend your bitcoins, and the number of places that accept bitcoins is likely to continue increasing in the future as Bitcoin becomes more widely known. Just because there are places where Bitcoins could be spent does not mean people do use them. The places you mentioned are more or less exotic (e.g. a book store for "Document preparing the common competition in french politics sciences" hrmmmm ...). Once I can bay a toaster on Amazon using Bitcoins I will be convinced. And happy  |
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What will happen to Bitcoins, or more specific, to the price of a Bitcoin, once all 21 million are created?
(1) At the moment we all talk about miners, GPUs, ASCIS, bulletin boards are filled with discussions. But once no new BTC are mined, will the price drop to 0? Because no one cares about BTC any more?
(2) BTC is meant to be a currency, right? But can I buy beer with it? Or a notebook? Book a flight? It seems all people do at the moment is trade it on MtGox, etc. - but they don't buy goods. No?
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Is it beneficial for the network if I keep a bitcoind process running on a machine that's online 24/7 anyway? Or do only miners keep the network alive?
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why would you think bots can't respond within seconds?
In more mature markets (NYSE) bots respond within milliseconds to out-bot other bots.
I am very well away of HFT and Algo-Trading. Having worked with the MtGox websocket API I am convinced that is impossible for a bot using this API to react that fast. So it must be *something* inside the MtGox system placing those orders. imho. |
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Almost every time I place a bid/ask that is close to the actual bid/ask there comes a new bid/ask that is 0.001 BTC higher/lower than mine.
How does this happen? Because it's always within seconds, I don't think that's automated trading bots.
Could it be that MtGox does this? Sort of screwing their users over?
Example(1):
Actual ask: 9.090
So I placed my order with 9.080
Within a few seconds there was a new order with 9.079 in the system.
Example(2):
Actual ask: 9.020
So I placed my order with 9.030
Within a few seconds there was a new order with 9.031 in the system.
This 0.001 game happens over and over again.
Did someone notice this as well?
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Hello there i know im a new user but i could really use a loan of 2.37 bitcoins and can pay you back 4 bitcoins in a week ...
U speaka gooda Engrish fo person froma Nigeria. |
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If I would be CEO of Intel I would spare a few µm2 and put some Bitcoin mining circuits on my next CPU.
So everyone could support the network. At almost no cost. Highly efficient.
But I'm sure Andy Grove will never consider this. We need more people like Howard Hughes in this world ...
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Why would banks see bitcoin as a threat? Coudnt they just accept it as a new currency, ...
You could as well ask the Mafia to stop taking protection money. Or wolfs stop eating sheep. |
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... (hint: banks haven't attacked PayPal) ...
Of course not - since PayPal is part of the banking empire. Part of the Dark Side. |
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But what they can do with 51%? Not much.
They can destroy trust. Basically it's: "currency = trust". Without trust, there's no currency. When trust is gone, this happens (beer becomes pretty expensive *g*):  (Zimbabwe Dollar) |
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Once Bitcoins become a serious threat to the "banking industry", wouldn't it be easy for them to kill Bitcoins? E.g. spend some peanuts (e.g 20 million $), design some advanced ASICS - and take over 51% of the network.
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Thanks for clarification. That helped a lot!
Another question: At the moment my Bitcoin folder is 3.4GB (because of all the block files). Won't it be a problem in the future once this folder grows to 10, 20 or 100 GB? Will people be willing to sacrifice so much disk space?
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With 840 MH/s, you are getting 0.39/day (on 100% luck). Check if your average is close to it. Block reward doesn't matter, your average reward matter.
I didn't get any reward on the last few blocks. cgminer was running. p2pool was running. |
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Currently miners are compensated for this work with a subsidy. The subsidy declines over time and will be replaced by tx fees.
Once all blocks are found - what happens to offline wallets (paper wallets)? E.g. today one can use to private key to fund his account (e.g. MtGox). But there are no tx fees in this process. So will the funds in offline/paper wallets then be lost (because: inaccessible). |
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