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And again she is utterly unpredictable. I was 99% sure we are about to see a dump today, but voila - 8K again!!!
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In relation to what was being discussed earlier: CSW has put a deadline of around 2020 to hack Paul Le Roux's coins and dump on the market, yet, there's no reason to believe this. Why would he be so sure that he is going to crack a hard disk encrypted with probably cascaded algorithms and a very strong password at any given date? Supposedly his mining operation is actually a farm of computers trying to crack the wallet file, but even then, there's no way to really know when you could bruteforce it. Anyone that has attempted to bruteforce strong passwords with those algorithms has failed. I've forgotten passwords and I already assumed it's pointless to try to access the data again.
Not to mention the huge fail that would be if Paul had additional encryption once the first password is broken which I don't doubt since he was a very paranoid man.
And this is all assuming that any of this is true (Paul Calder being satoshi, having 1.000.000 BTC and whatnot, and not just being more cover up lunacy by Craig to avoid the aussie taxmen, keep his shitcoin on the headlines etc).
I think this is just FUD started by one comment on a topic in reddit. Some 'informed' guy suggested that nonsense in 2018 clearly to cause a dump. He stated that CW will receive Kleiman's keys to his shares in Jan 2020 and by then he has to crack the hard drive he supposedly stole from Paul Le Roux, so that he may prove he is Satoshi. But another user corrected this misinformation by citing Kleman's will that CW would get the keys of the shares that belong to Kleiman in 2020 OR 15 months after his death. These months passed a long time ago, CW got the shares and I guess this is the reason why Kleman's family sues CW. So even CW breaks the code it will prove nothing, since he has the shares already. Regarding the possible breaking, it won't worth it. The coins are stored in multiple wallets with little amount each (It was like 50 BTC each but I am not sure) , so breaking 1 of them won't bring him a fortune, nor it will prove he is Satoshi. And it will cost him dearly in terms of electricity only. True Crypt is a tough nut to crack, even with thousands asics it will take decades if not centuries for just one wallet to crack. |
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I just bought £500 worth so you can thank me for the cheap coins because it’s bound to go down now, it always does shortly after I buy  I envy you  I have to skip this month, since I intend to go to the beach for a week, and it will cost me a whole fucking salary. But, I did well in the last year, increasing with 15% my stash. Last summer I rejected the vacation because the price was $6K-ish - too low to miss the opportunity to buy. Later, when the price fell to $3k-ish, I even emptied my 2 credit cards to buy moar. Of course I leave enough money for the monthly payments. I prefer to pay for the 12% interest because the profit from the hodling is already much greater. Recently I voted in the poll that I am 100% in, but that's not true - I am 110% in. If anything bad happens, well, I have a stable work (although with $850 monthly salary - that's how I know God loves me ) So I learned to live with a salary immediately turned into Bitcoins - that's how much I don't trust the fiat system. And why should I trust it - credit cards, bank accounts can be robbed (in my coutry we had 2 cases of bank employees stealing clients money). My paypal account was hacked some time ago, fortunately I managed to restore the stolen sum. Now I am my own bank. If I decide to buy a house or a car, I may part with some of my stash, but not all of it. I am seriously considering the idea of hodling more than 5 years, as I initially determined. For now, I am good - I have a nice appartment and a car. I hope to find a girl that is good and won't screw my life and steal my money. Too many gold diggers in the world exist and some of them will turn to be Bitcoin diggers, we should be careful.  |
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 According to Grayscale, many investors are not aware of the bitcoin block reward halving.
As such, it still remains a key factor for the price and it is not completely priced in.
"We were surprised to learn that many of them were not even aware of this event." (Grayscale) https://twitter.com/iamjosephyoung/status/1136949078879744000Very interesting news! thank you
Edit: I found the original quote Is the Halving Priced In?
The halving is close enough that it’s time to start talking about it more seriously, but far enough out in the future that it’s unclear whether it’s priced into the market efficiently. In fact, based on anecdotal conversations with market participants, we were surprised to learn that many of them were not even aware of this event. Moreover, according to Unchained Capital, less than 32% of the bitcoins in circulation have remained in the same wallet addresses since July 2016.3 This is consistent with our own determination that a large number of existing bitcoin holders are investors who have entered the market in the last three years. For many of them, this is uncharted territory and could very well be their first halving event.
While some investors in the digital asset ecosystem appear to have a short-term bias, strategies with a multi-year investment horizon and the discipline to hold strategic positions in Bitcoin through these events have historically generated outsized returns. For example, in the one-year periods following the first and second halvings, bitcoin’s price rose by roughly 81x and 3x, respectively. https://grayscale.co/the-next-bitcoin-halving/Every time the halving comes near we get FUD with people saying it’s priced in. So far post halving we have had a parabolic rise. I think we can safely say that no, the halving is never priced before it happens. There are less coins being mined post halving therefore coins are more scarce. It’s all about supply & demand, if you reduce the supply then demand increases which naturally makes the price go up. This is indeed the most ridiculous FUD attempt I've ever seen! It made me laugh  But in case some n00bs could be mislead, here is what I think: The price is not determined by the investors, but by the daily traders. They sell, buy, short, long, etc. and always look for a daily profit. They are not interested what the price will be after 1 year. Otherwise, they would be called investors and won't do short/long positions. Now, when a big investor appears on an exchange (or rather OTC, but let's say that the OTC desk pulls bitcoins from all major exchanges), he may move the price up to 20% in a day. But - and this is very important - if the daily market can't sustain that price, it will fall immediately! So, again traders play the main role of the price forming. And as I said, one year for them looks like an eternity. To say that the halving is priced in, it would mean that the price reached the top and it will fall soon - that is the hidden FUD in this statement. It may be true only if in the last weeks before the halving, we are way beyond the current ATH - $40-50K at least. Then we could expect some pullback, but in several months the reduced supply would restore the balance. Then nobody will know what the real price should be - with reduced supply and million new investors and traders entering the exchanges it is difficult to make predictions. So what usually happens is that the price continues to follow its parabolic graph untill it can't be sustained and some bigger corection comes. The exact values nobody can predict now. What we see as doom and gloom charts is done by n00b shorters, who just entered the market and realized that they can post their shit charts in various forums to influence others. And to go against the bull trend with charts and explanations like these is as if a child is trying to move the ocean with its little bucket. It has the faith but not the resources obviously |
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The Wall Street Journal Business Section - Some Bet Bitcoin Price Could Reach $50,000  This reminds me of an early 2017 prediction. "If Bitcoin ETF is approved, Bitcoin can rise up to $5000 untill the end of 2017". The price was 800-ish back then, so this was 6x prediction. It looked pretty bold then. Of course, the ETF wasn't approved and yet the price went to $20 000, i.e. 25x. So now we can expect between 25x3000=75 000 and 25x9000=225000? This is ridiculous for just a year, I know. But If we think about it, 2017 was the year with so many bad news for Bitcoin - China's ban, forks, beecashers dumpsters and last but not least - the futures. Yes, the futures was a bad news for the hodlers, since we knew that the price will be maipulated heavily by selling at certain hours. I still wonder how Bitcoin managed to overcome all this. Well, if not this year, we can expect some incredible bull run after the halving. I can't wait to see the fireworks! |
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Thx and thx
Now BTC reverse direction, and let the Sellers don’t buy back on the cheap!
Happy Birthday Mic! Hopefully your next BD cake will be like:  |
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Ok, some n00bs on stamp are willing to hit the sell button with 20% discount. Just in time for most of us to BTFD. For me the most important thing is the signal that Bitcoin can recover from 3K to 9K in weeks. I have no fear at all about dips and crashes. So no matter how hard bears try, they won't convince the investors aka hodlers to sell anything. The time of the bears has ended. So, I have an open letter: Dear bears, if you are willing to sell every day with 20% discount down to 6K, just call me. I will buy your coins right now for 6K, why wait?
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Bitstamp bid book was a hot mess. CB and Kraken were at 8200 while Bitstamp struggled at 8000. Another failed attempt for long squeeze may be. If this is so, then these people don't have enough coins to coordinate their attack on other exchanges. But if this is a "profit taking", I can't understand it. Various shitcoins pump 100% in a day before someone pulls the trigger (Exhibit A: ShitVision ) while Bitcoin raises organically 2% and they sell down 10%+. Some trader here please explain to me how it works? I don't get it! This is only in favour of the many many people waiting to see some drop to enter the train. We can bet when we will return over 9K. This weekend may be? We shall see  |
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All these people keeping their Vegeta "It's over 9000!" memes, ready!
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What I learned about Bitcoin in the last 5 years is that the scenario which looks very unlikely with a probability <1% is what actually happens. For those that endured and hodled the Gox crash (cudos for GameKyuubi and many other early hodlers like 600watt) the dream of getting back to $1000 seemed so distant and impossible. A few years later... boom - $20K. And then who would have thought that a year later we will be back to 3000$ with no bad news like Gox?!? Next, who really put a chance >1% to see prices nearly 9K in May? So think of what is the most probable price in 6 months and you will get a result that will be quite far from the reality We just have to be prepared for any possible scenario even with <1% probability. There are just too many new factors that play an important role. For example: in late 2017 almost every altoin exploded. They took most of the Bitcoin impetus. None of my friends who heard about Bitcoin for the first time actually bought Bitcoins because it looked expensive. They all bought xrp, eth, tron, etc. They didn't listen to me and lost their money. Now the situation is the opposite. Another very important factor is that the next halving is only 1 year away, so there is no room for a prolonged bear cycle. Another new thing is that bakkt and fidelity must buy bitcoins in order to operate. Both will offer a custody of acutal coins. May be they are part of the bull market now, we just don't know that yet. Once these huge regulated markets are operational, why whould SEC deny ETF anymore? And last but not least, for 1-2-3 years more and more average and wealthy users buy and hodl. The inflation rate even now is in favour of the bull run, not to mention after the halving, when it will drop below 2% per year. All I want to say is that any low probability scenario of $30K+ price in the next 6-12 months can not be crossed out. The important thing is not the probability but what will actually happen! |
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Bob, I see 0 volume. Are you on the jenkem?
Shh. Patience. Drums in the deep. EDIT: OK, maybe "wave" and "strap in" was too hyperbolic. Expecting to test $9k in the next few hours. EDIT2: And to further clarify my gut feeling, once we breach $9k, I expect massive profit-taking, followed by dogs and cats, living together. EDIT3: My position remains. HODLing and do not intend to divest any further BTC until after the halvening - but not before 2021 - Waiting for Rick to independently retire, and figure out what we want to do with the rest of our life together. Possibly divest BTC to reinvest in 100+ acre real estate/ranch in rural area. Optimism is good, and the moves here are giving credence to the case that the bull market is establishing itself. You are quite right that massive profit taking will come, but the level from which it starts is difficult to estimate. The current price wave is unsustainable in the longer trend. A glance at the chart makes this obvious. If we are to get to a new ATH in the next year or so, a strong pullback would be needed in order to consolidate the overbought positions. The recent moves have almost broken with the 2014-16 pattern, but that only means that predictability has declined, not that a new roadmap can be put in place. Actually, we had some profit taking several times but the buying pressure is so intense that it took only several hours up to 1-2 days to recover. Now, we are in the position that non traders buy and hodl in anticipation of the approaching halving. Traders are not able to short with profit for many reasons. Btw, Bitmex included Kraken in its price making, so it will be harder to manipulate the market. Kraken is notorious for its slow reaction to price drops. Also, bakkt and fidelity platforms are in the final test stage. Actually, bakkt is ready with some sofisticated structures and is just waiting for a custodian licence by NYDFS. Being backed by ICE, I don't see any obstacles getting this licence. So any attempt of shorting/selling would be incredibly risky right now. Last year traders were afraid how far the price will crash and will it recover in foreseable future. Even the most optimistic didn't see how just in 5 months the price will be near 9K. That looked ridiculous in January-March. The mood and the trend has changed and the only question is when, not if, we will break the ATH again. |
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The market looks very positive now. Turning on my rigs now |
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We are staying around 8k for awhile now. Very positive indeed! I expect another leg upwards soonish.
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Another super fast recovery for several hours - from the 7400-ish drop earlier today to 7900+ now. May be a few more days like that and we will be ready for the next target $9000+. We are officially in the last 365 days before the halving and the bears are aware their time is running out. They lost their only weapon - the fear. Now if they attempt to cause a crash, it will be a temporarily drop followed by a quick recovery. Everyone now knows that even if the prices get somehow lower in the next 6 months, at the start of 2020 there will be a major recovery. And most probably a higher price with the approach of the halving. If Bitcoin managed to recover 2.5 times for several months a whole year before the halving, imagine what will happen after that!
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The market recently has matured and such news doesn't change anything. In fact, more traders realize that such news trigger short lived bull balloons that pop up pretty quickly. Without ETF, we will see a steady growth beyond 20K. We entered the year-before-the-halving-accumulation zone and everyone who is clever enough, buys and waits at least six months after the halving. That is the reason there are so few bitcoins on the exchanges in the last months. IMO, this is the main reason for the bull run and not some rumors. In this case you can buy now and hold till Q4 then sell at $20k+ (I'm sure we'll see an ATH this year) which will be a very nice profit. If you're patient enough you can hold up to 6 months after the halving and sell at another ATH ($100-500k+ per BTC). So you can't really lose it's only a matter of how long you're willing to wait and how much money you will finally receive. Win-win  I bought in 2017 and hodling firm! I continue to buy with saved salary every month. |
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