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...or the last letter of every line. Assume every page of this book is a potential key and you don't write anything down at all. History is littered with similarly cracked methods. No matter your method, if you can't trust your friends, family or self, your bitcoins will die with you.
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I flicked to a page about Kevin Mitnicks life on the run and it mentioning `tweaking the hash` ... tweaking a md5sum so that the hash remains the same even after alteration... might this effect this somehow?
You mean accidental collision of distinct passphrases? Not in your lifetime. Given a KNOWN hash, it has been shown in very specific circumstances that some carefully modified plaintext message can generate the same hash result. But that is not relevant here, simply because the target hash is unknown. If it were known, you'd already have control of the bitcoin balance. |
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There is a short recap of events at the end (such as Bruce's mybitcoin losses) |
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With case insensitive alphanumeric, you have a keyspace of only a few dozen million. I don't think this will scale, particularly because the entropy on real names is low. If I am not mistaken, there can only be a thousand Johns, Mikes, Jim, Mar, Ali, Moh, or any other firstname.
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August Target Performance (actual daily prices in left columns followed by each of chodpaba's ~four targets under the date of prediction) Actual Low High 2011-08-02 Date
08-01 | 12.85 13.55 |========== | | | | | | | | | 08-01
08-02 | 11.5 13.1 | 13.0-13.5 | | | | | | | | | 08-02
08-03 | 8.7 12.2 | 13.3-13.8 | | | | | | | | | 08-03
08-04 | 9.75 11.75 | 13.6-14.1 |2011-08-06 | | | | | | | | 08-04
08-05 | 9.5 11 | 13.1-14.1 |========== | | | | | | | | 08-05
08-06 | 5.75 10 | 12.258- | 5.26- |2011-08-07 | 08-08 | 08-08 | | | | | 08-06
08-07 | 6 9.5 | 12.734- | 6.32-8.65 |========== |Scenario 1 |Scenario 2 | | | | | 08-07
08-08 | 7.05 8.1 | 13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 |========== |========== |2011-08-09 | | | | 08-08
08-09 | 7.7 12.1 | 14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | 5.09-7.99 | 7.95-9.33 |========== | | | | 08-09
08-10 | 9.5 10.4 | " | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | 4.29-5.74 | 8.06-8.95 | 7.90-10.2 | | | | 08-10
08-11 | 8.45 10.5 | " | 2.329- | 6.02-6.75 | 4.91-6.12 | 8.27-8.48 | 7.90-8.41 |2011-08-12 | | | 08-11
08-12 | 8.91 9.80 | 12.550- | | | 5.10-5.67 | 8.14-8.71 | 7.78-8.31 |========== |2011-08-13 |2011-08-14 | 08-12
08-13 | 9.28 10.25 | 12.748- |2011-08-15 | IRQ 08-15 | | | 7.78-8.75 | 9.13-9.60 |========== |========== | 08-13
08-14 | 9.62 11.24 | 13.228- |========== |========== | | | | 7.44-9.17 | 9.21-10.1 | 9.95-10.6 | 08-14
08-15 | 10.72 11.89 | 13.383 | 10.4-11.0 | 9.84-11.6 | | | | 7.62-10.4 | 8.81-9.49 | 9.57-10.5 | 08-15
08-16 | 10.81 11.32 | " | 8.81-11.1 | 7.97-12.1 | | | | 7.07-9.02 | 8.84-9.13 | 9.68-11.3 | 08-16
08-17 | 10.66 11.10 | " | 8.17-10.1 | 7.29-11.7 | | | | | 8.78-9.30 | 11.1-12.7 | 08-17
08-18 | 10.81 11.05 | " | 8.03-9.59 | 7.02-12.0 | | | | | | | 08-18
08-19 | 10.83 11.81 | " | | | | | | | | | 08-19
08-20 | 11.40 11.69 | " | | | | | | | | | 08-20
08-21 | 11.31 11.51 | " | | | | | | | | | 08-21
08-22 | 10.51 11.50 | " | | | | | | | | | 08-22
08-23 |(10.81 ? 11.30)| " | | | | | | | | | 08-23 Still not convinced by time-scaling?  |
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Please help me, my Fedspeak is rusty. Did the Fed just announce it will continue buying treasuries in the third paragraph or admit defeat (continue 0% but otherwise let the market find its own way)? The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate. |
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Actual Low High 2011-08-02 Date
08-01 | 12.85 13.55 |========== | | | | | | 08-01
08-02 | 11.5 13.1 | 13.0-13.5 | | | | | | 08-02
08-03 | 8.7 12.2 | 13.3-13.8 | | | | | | 08-03
08-04 | 9.75 11.75 | 13.6-14.1 |2011-08-06 | | | | | 08-04
08-05 | 9.5 11 | 13.1-14.1 |========== | | | | | 08-05
08-06 | 5.75 10 | 12.258- | 5.26- |2011-08-07 | 08-08 | 08-08 | | 08-06
08-07 | 6 9.5 | 12.734- | 6.32-8.65 |========== |Scenario 1 |Scenario 2 | | 08-07
08-08 | 7.05 8.1 | 13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 |========== |========== |2011-08-09 | 08-08
08-09 | 7.7 12.1 | 14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | 5.09-7.99 | 7.95-9.33 |========== | 08-09
08-10 | | " | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | 4.29-5.74 | 8.06-8.95 | 7.90-10.2 | 08-10
08-11 | | " | 2.329- | 6.02-6.75 | 4.91-6.12 | 8.27-8.48 | 7.90-8.41 | 08-11
08-12 | | 12.550- | | | 5.10-5.67 | 8.14-8.71 | 7.78-8.31 | 08-12
08-13 | | 12.748- | | | | | 7.78-8.75 | 08-13
08-14 | | 13.228- | | | | | | 08-14
08-15 | | 13.383 | | | | | | 08-15
08-16 | | " | | | | | | 08-16
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Could you expand on your idea? Bitcoins only? I think that would be like putting all your eggs in one basket.
Well I assume everyone has numerous baskets. Bitcoin lends itself well to an internet community (as well as shady characters to be sure). I'm certainly open to discussing other holdings, though it could get complicated if we share a pool of assets. What kind of portfolio discussion/management are you interested in? |
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One way to think of the portfolio management is to lend your bitcoins at interest. Though that puts a lot of risk on the day trader. He may expect a fee and take a cut on profits. The lender should have some loss protection.
As for the club, I'm not worried about someone encouraging other's to sell so that he can buy, simply because I wouldn't join a large club in the first place. I've been a part of stock clubs in which we buy into the pool, discuss trades, and share all profit and loss weighted upon our buy in percentage. However, the bitcoin market is on accelerated time (or just high volatility). One week in bitcoin is like one year on NASDAQ. The club could also just be a way for people to record their performance, discuss their thinking (both before or after taking positions), perhaps also in real time (irc?). There are already a number of analysis threads in this forum, but we're not really sharing our own wins and losses and learning from each other.
On a similar note. I live far far away from what most of you would call civilization. It's a great place to stash pm but a terrible place to receive metal. I was thinking about a network of trusted holders the world over.
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I agree on both points exactly, had already contacted TH, they say yeah, and brought me here.
Have any of you seen Ruxum? In the depth of orders, you can click on any bid or ask (most likely closest to spread), enter amount and immediately buy, and the remainder becomes a new order.
I have observed (I may be mistaken) that on Mt. Gox, if the LOWEST ASKs are $9.2, $9.3, $9.4 and I place a BID at $9.3, I will first buy at $9.2. However, given the same TH orders, my BID at $9.3 seems to result in a purchase at $9.3. If my observation is correct, who is getting the difference?
My pending orders should be descending by price, not chronology. In fact, why not let me sort by columns.
I would like the LAST, BID, ASK and my BALANCE on every page. Maybe clicking on it makes an asynchronous update. I like the Dashboard showing latest orders, transfers, deposits and withdrawls, but I can not see my balance over time. Again Ruxum has some nice charts for my orders, balances, and trade history. Do NOT learn from Mt. Gox's broken-isomorphic separation of dollar and bitcoin history (Mark, the old system was not great nor cryptic).
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Maybe you're right. I was thinking about the possibility that the password is false. if somebody pmed you their password, would you not have 0 bits of entropy?
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I'm traveling tomorrow, with few internet access opportunities, and concerned about the bitcoin market at the moment. I wonder if anyone is offering investment management services. Are their published rates, performance records, satisfied customers, otc-ratings, etc? Similarly, is there already, or is anyone interested in starting, a bitcoin trading club?
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In a centralize authentication system (bcrypt) the required work effort can be increased periodically to keep up with Moore's Law. However, the bitcoin keys already publicly visible in the block chain can not be later 'upgraded'. A key based on a passphrase is only as strong as the passphrase. A username as seed is essentially just a new passphrase' = passphrase+username.
That is not to say I think a deterministic seeded wallet is a bad idea. Indeed it would decentralize the client wallet! I see two use cases: (1) a transferable one time "swiss bank account" (bitbills) and (2) a truly deniable deterministic personal wallet.
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Seriously? You say that after the $150K push to $9 within the past hour? (I added your predictive histories above  ) |
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Yeah, just tell me your passphrase in PM and your entropy is 1 bit.
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BTC: $150K buy couldn't wait for $5 EDIT: And TH immediately matched with a $3.5K buy. Maybe the PPT are buying BTC! Cypherdoc: Why should the Fed want to fuck Americans? Ben has a neck and the guillotine is rusty. |
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I'm properly convinced now that private bank debt is clean the Fed can and must deflate the dollar.
what do you mean by this? get the USD to rise? Well, yes. The market's response today couldn't have surprised Ben and the banks are strapped in and cleared for the plunge. It looks to me like we just shaved 11 years of gains in one day. If we repeat the fun tomorrow, we'll have shaved off a right shoulder and confirmed a reversal that'll make 1929 look like a holiday. If Bernanke declares QE3 (by any name) then gold is cheap at any price, otherwise, paper dollars are king.  |
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So, the market is either going up, otherwise it will go down. Looks like better rewards betting on Scenario 1. Actual Low High 2011-07-06 2011-07-10 |
Date ===== ==== ========== ========== | Date
07-06 | 13 16.5 | 10.735- | 11.763- | | 07-06
07-07 | 14.5 15.9 | 14.267- | 13.615- | | 07-07
07-08 | 13.9 15.6 | 18.370- | 15.604- | | 07-08
07-09 | 14.04 14.7 | 22.269 | 16.535 | day 11..14 | 07-09
07-10 | 14.35 15.7 | " | " | ========== | 07-10
07-11 | 13.8 15.2 | " | " |2011-07-13 | 14.0-14.5 | | 07-11
07-12 | 13.9 14.65 | " | " |========== | 13.9-14.6 | | 07-12
07-13 | 13.9 14.15 | " | " | 11.833- | 13.6-15.8 | | 07-13
07-14 | 13.7 14.07 | " | " | 14.339- | 13.6-14.2 | | 07-14
07-15 | 13.5 14.07 | " | " | 16.863- | | | 07-15
07-16 | 13.5 13.8 | " | " | 18.028 | | | 07-16
07-17 | 13 13.75 | " | " | " | | | 07-17
07-18 | 12.5 14.6 | " | " | " | | | 07-18
07-19 | 13.5 14.7 | 10.047- | 10.852- | 12.738- | | | 07-19
07-20 | 13.4 14 | 13.352- | 13.870- | 15.244- | |2011-07-21 | 07-20
07-21 | 13.4 13.8 | 17.193- | 15.325- | 17.228- | |========== |2011-07-22 |2011-07-23 | 07-21
07-22 | 13.45 13.8 | 20.842 | 16.834 | 19.142 | | 13.5-14.0 |========== |========== | 07-22
07-23 | 13.51 13.76 | " | " | " |2011-07-25 | 13.3-14.3 | 13.2-14.1 | 13.4-14.1 |2011-07-24 | 07-23
07-24 | 13.63 14.1 | " | " | " |========== | 13.4-14.8 | 13.2-14.6 | 13.2-14.3 |========== 2011-07-25 | 07-24
07-25 | 13.75 14.7 | " | " | " | 12.895- | 13.4-15.0 | 13.2-14.6 | 12.9-14.0 | 13.5-14.4 |========== | 07-25
07-26 | 13.77 14.05 | " | " | " | 13.448- | | 14.0-15.5 | 12.8-13.6 | 13.3-14.2 | 13.6-14.6 | | 07-26
07-27 | 13.68 14.13 | " | " | " | 14.239- | | | | 13.2-13.8 | 13.5-14.3 | | 07-27
07-28 | 13.3 13.95 | " | " | " | 15.462 | | | | 13.1-13.8 | 13.5-14.2 |2011-07-29 | 07-28
07-29 | 13.33 13.7 | " | " | " | " | | | | | 13.1-14.0 |========== | 07-29
07-30 | 13.45 13.63 | " | " | " | " |2011-07-31 | | | | | 13.4-13.9 | 07-30
07-31 | 12.8 14.9 | " | " | " | " |========== |2011-08-02 | | | | 13.4-13.8 | 07-31
08-01 | 12.85 13.55 | 10.085- | 12.775- | " | " | 13.1-13.5 |========== | | | | 13.4-13.8 | 08-01
08-02 | 11.5 13.1 | 13.403- | 14.569- | 16.775- | 12.145- | 13.0-13.5 | 13.0-13.5 | | | | 13.2-13.8 | 08-02
08-03 | 8.7 12.2 | 17.257- | 18.232- | 17.402- | 14.534- | 13.0-13.4 | 13.3-13.8 | | | | | 08-03
08-04 | 9.75 11.75 | 20.920 | 20.361 | 20.325- | 16.426- | 13.0-13.3 | 13.6-14.1 |2011-08-06 | | | | 08-04
08-05 | 9.5 11 | " | " | 20.952 | 18.251 | 12.966- | 13.1-14.1 |========== | | | | 08-05
08-06 | 5.75 10 | " | " | " | " | 13.238- | 12.258- | 5.26- |2011-08-07 | 08-08 | 08-08 | 08-06
08-07 | 6 9.5 | " | " | " | " | 13.883- | 12.734- | 6.32-8.65 |========== |Scenario 1 |Scenario 2 | 08-07
08-08 | 7.05 8.1 | " | " | " | " | 14.468 | 13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 |========== |========== | 08-08
08-09 | | " | " | " | " | " | 14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | 5.09-7.99 | 7.95-9.33 | 08-09
08-10 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | 4.29-5.74 | 8.06-8.95 | 08-10
08-11 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | 2.329- | 6.02-6.75 | 4.91-6.12 | 8.27-8.48 | 08-11
08-12 | | " | " | " | " | " | 12.550- | | | 5.10-5.67 | 8.14-8.71 | 08-12
08-13 | | " | " | 20.117- | 15.995- | " | 12.748- | | | | | 08-13
08-14 | | 20.573- | 19.498- | 20.830- | 16.592- | " | 13.228- | | | | | 08-14
08-15 | | 27.342- | 20.464- | 22.692- | 19.379- | 12.834- | 13.383 | | | | | 08-15
08-16 | | 35.206- | 28.627- | 31.324 | 19.977 | 13.253- | " | | | | | 08-16
08-17 | | 42.678 | 53.838 | " | " | 14.176- | " | | | | | 08-17
08-18 | | " | " | " | " | 14.871 | " | | | | | 08-18
08-19 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-19
08-20 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-20
08-21 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-21
08-22 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-22
08-23 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-23
08-24 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-24
08-25 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-25
08-26 | | | " | | | " | " | | | | | 08-26
08-27 | | | | | | " | " | | | | | 08-27
08-28 | | | | | | | | | | | | 08-28
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