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Chodpaba, what are you calling "current levels" (bottom $/BTC .. back .. days/weeks to current levels and beyond)? I've uncorked the champagne and started clapping myself on the back for selling a nice fraction at $12 and buying at $8 with pennies reserved for a clean up at maybe $6. But do you think it'll go up before going down again? I'm hoping to come up for the inverted head, a small right shoulder, and then a rally. Am I dreaming?
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you see things in terms of an inflationist. i, otoh, think we live in a boom bust cyclical society where you swing btwn extremes of inflation and deflation. you think the central banks can continue to inflate by devaluing their currencies.
I'm not sure what an inflationist is. I expect we'll soon be on a very frightening roller coaster ride and we'll be fleeing from one bad decision to the next. Perhaps with bubbles growing and popping everywhere, contrarian thinking is the only logical approach. I appreciate your disagreement. Maybe we'll all be smarter for it. You mention 100 years of inflation. I see thousands of years of fiat inflation ever since the Chinese invented the magical paper. After hundreds (thousands?) of attempts, we've just not quite figured it out. I've read a bit about pre-French revolution, Weimar Germany, and Japan. I don't know much about Zimbabwe (but I suspect Mugabe just kicked out the productive land owners, received no taxes, initiated starvation, and just printed). I don't know much about South America, Yugoslavia, or even the Roman Empire, etc. But ancient to modern history seems unanimously stacked against paper. I'm sure we can agree on that. I agree that "this time is different". Why? Because the entire global economy is in debt or (for example China) is servicing the debt to prop up an otherwise fragile economy. What differentiates Japan from the United States is that Japan is a nation of savers and invested in its own industry. The United States otoh is a nation of debtors with investors outside of the nation. So, I throw out the comparison. But I feel we can compare Japan as a nation of the past fifteen years to the entire planet today. We earthlings are in debt and our few savers are obviously invested in the Earth. I don't think we'll see a redistribution of wealth between nations -- people and institutions (banks) yes -- but not nations. Asia will fall with Europe and the US. If we're still on the same page, the question seems to be "will the economy deflate now or will/can the central banks continue to print money?" I do not disagree that the economy will collapse by deflation. I just think hyperinflation is the next train stop. You seem to be saying that hyperinflation will be avoided by a conscious decision to deflate and unwind the economy. How would that process occur? Wouldn't the central banks have to intentionally allow all markets and private banks to collapse? How would they preserve the currencies? but when i look at whats happening in Greece and the other PIGS i don't think so. who ever would imagine that a sovereign nation would have to consider selling off their islands to "allow" them to take on even more debt?
I fully expect/ed Greece to default and reissue its own currency. I'm sure some generous deal was made behind closed doors "Look, if you hang in there we'll give you loans forever, no matter what we say in public." mountain of 1.7 T in excess banking reserves at the Fed. why would banks hoard? they don't think its worth it to lend the money out even tho they get a measly 0.25%.
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watch the gold price. if it can continue to power forward then you'll be proven correct. if it starts to drop, i would head underground asap. i personally think Bernanke and the bankers realize they have to get the gold price down since leveraged investments are heading into gold and not the real economy as they would like. the Fed can provide free cash to the system but they can't control where it goes. i wish i could find that link to that article someone here on the forum provided about how the banks are complaining to Bernanke about the drop in the dollar b/c of alternative currencies such as btc.
I need to ponder this. I expect gold to drop but hoped to buy at that point. I think people are foolishly tho truly running to dollars and bonds as the dollar goes down. Please do try to find this article. |
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they are defaulting on SS by artificially lowering the CPI. they're cutting Mcar benefits as well. defense is being slimmed down. look at NOC, RTN, LMT defense stocks. they're telling a story.
OK, then by default you mean price inflation through debt monetization, right? The government will pay its debts with worthless paper. My vote (bet not choice) is that nearly all democracies will devalue their currencies and the few that don't (Denmark and Switzerland) are going to lock down their borders. no, the examples i gave are where they are paying out less than they should or by cutting back payements. it has nothing to do with debt monetization; it has to do with increasing austerity. its going on all over the world. look at Europe. OK, I'm just not comfortable calling monetary inflation a form of default, which is the only way I can interpret "defaulting on SS by artificially lowering the CPI". If for example Greece's austerity brings their budget into surplus (without hand outs) then there is no reason for Greece (or the EU) to default. But I do not expect that to ever happen. Never. I expect Europe will continue to provide loans that Greece can never repay, Europe will loosen it's stability pact (>2% inflation), and debt will increase. Likewise but to a lesser extent for the US and PIIGS. I don't expect the US to balance its budget before some huge global readjustment (default, WWIII, gold standard, total monetization, ? ?). Switzerland is pulling out all the stops to devalue the Franc. So far it hasn't been all that successful but it's definitely something they are trying to achieve. Record CHF compared to other countries is very bad for their economy.
True. But Switz and Scandinavia with ~40% debt/gdp can afford to devalue the franc and kroner(s) and will need to if they hope to trade with failing neighbors. They also retain the right to lock their borders; indeed Denmark and Switz already do customs inspections at the border despite Schengen agreements. |
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Go for it then. Test it on a variety of data samples and let us know what you turn up. I would love to but I'm not yet prepared for math models. I'd have to see if the post-peak corresponds to the second and if their average corresponds to the past two months. But my etch-a-sketch model still seems pretty accurate:  Seriously, I think we're in the December (and March) bounces . And I double the time scale:   |
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Math keeps the eye balls honest. But I still feel there are fundamental reasons to be flexible with time. A certain downward pressure is constant (coin generation) while upward pressure has been historically exponential (new blood). So volume (awareness) alone keeps prices up longer, rallies more manic, etc. I'm just fixing the previous peak at $32 and stretching the graph until in matches the patterns after each of the previous two peaks. As for math, perhaps one could match relative distances between sub peaks and valleys or find the best matching deviation from a moving average.
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in order to scale on time you have to throw away data so that you end up with the same amount of points in both samples. I see. But iff it creates more accurate predictions, then its a small price to pay, no? By for example collecting hourly prices and selecting likely matches. I observe three peaks 2010-11-06, 2011-02-11, and 2011-07-08, with very different run ups and blow offs. Comparing peak to peak is most obvious, except the base/fence cases. And that's the real trick: aligning and prediction the next rally. Everything about the last peak was bigger than the previous two and it is for that reason I expect the next rally to manifest later. Above, I've used your dates (#3, #4) to match the plateau following the 2011-02-11 (graph #2). The last graph #5 is my attempt to match the last $32 peak (2011-07-08) and plateau with the previous two series, irrespective of time scale. |
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Ah Cheers to the People's Bitcoin Revolution, where the proletariat and bourgeoisie see eye to eye and drink from the same cup.
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they are defaulting on SS by artificially lowering the CPI. they're cutting Mcar benefits as well. defense is being slimmed down. look at NOC, RTN, LMT defense stocks. they're telling a story.
OK, then by default you mean price inflation through debt monetization, right? The government will pay its debts with worthless paper. My vote (bet not choice) is that nearly all democracies will devalue their currencies and the few that don't (Denmark and Switzerland) are going to lock down their borders. |
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you seem to be doubling down and i'd be careful given what i feel is a large topping formation since 2001. we just can't assume anymore debt.
topping measured in dollars (and Euro, etc). I think we all agree. But the bet on the table is whether the Fed and central banks will continue to devalue their currencies or let the party stop cold turkey. Why do you think the Fed will stop printing money? Do you think the US will default on Social Security and Defense? |
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Is it correct to interpret your V-shaped histogram to say we can really go either way including nowhere? Based on eye-balling the Nov, Feb, and June peaks, I see more volatility but more up during the week, generally down over the month, and a big bubble rally before the end of the year.
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If peers exchanged session keys (pki or diffie-h-m), then users could onion-wrap their transactions just like nym/cypherpunk remailers. If nodes broadcast transactions at random or frequent intervals I think it would be very difficult to associate a single ip with a transaction, like TOR-lite implemented in the bitcoin network itself.
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Despite enormous chaos in our little economy, the news has been generally positive for weeks. I think journalists who felt the need to call out a ponzi scheme trawled their trolls in previous weeks. Nay-sayers hoping to report 'i told you so' will have to keep their mouths shut for now. I am not as optimistic as you in the near term. However, I compare the price of today with the price in December 2010. If the correlation is real, we're gonna bounce around for a while but should skyrocket this or next month. I'd be very curious to see you compare your indicators October-January with April-today. |
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It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only. edit: if i'm right this will absolutely kill the inflationists. i think i am... If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered. |
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  Dec '10 vs Aug '11 || 100x more volume || 40x more value || 5x more mania || 2x more time |
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I don't get your logic (unless you are purely and stubbornly contrarian). It is precisely for this lack of correction that I am bearish gold and bullish everything else heavy. When I look at the metals and oil charts I am struck by the huge correction in 2008. Whether crude, platinum, or silver, they all drop by about half their previous price. Except gold.
This is a good comparison, with the exception that this time the metal drop will be more severe. Probably down -80% to -90%, except for Gold, which may only drop -20 to -50% in dollar terms. |
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Then I misunderstand your reference to silver. Bitcoin leads the market by 24 hours? (04 August New York lunch time $42 - $39)  |
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Could all of these correlations simply demonstrate the huge influence of the dollar rather than these assets to each other?
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