oh so close.
the VIX had the temerity to spike all the way down to 13.66 which we haven't seen since 6/20/07. amazing.
i think next week will has the potential to tell the story of the US economy for the next 4 years.
i knew something was bugging me about that 6/20/07 date. if anyone here is into eerie historical parallels, check this out: Bear Stearns Fund Collapsecan you believe the VIX spike down to 13.66 yesterday was last seen on 6/20/07? the historical parallel i see is drawn to the Greek CDS trigger that occurred last Friday but hasn't yet affected the stock market. could Greece be the new Bear Stearns that triggered the 2007-09 crisis? i think so. It's funny how most pundits see the VIX this low as a good thing for the stock market, and yet, every time the VIX has gotten this low for the past couple of years, another supposed crisis emerges. Let's just hope this pattern continues since I doubled down on my market short yesterday  |
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i REALLY don't like this. see the high volume spike today on a down day which to me indicates distribution. coupled with the VIX move above. the $DXY was actually down -0.5% today which should've sparked a much bigger rally in the Dow but didn't.
AAPL finished marginally down.
even more interesting is my double levered VIX play VXZ was UP 1.01% which over the last month has been a leading indicator. UST's look to me to be bottoming and if they start rising along with the USD would be indicative of deflation returning.
as silverbox said, gold and silver made an impressive recovery from the early morning when gold was down about $12 before rallying. i remain unconvinced.
today was triple witching as well which will finish up some trades. next week should be real exciting.
Yes, next week will be very exciting.
i.e. see the SKEW spike: http://chart.ly/6u9kllw |
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Thanks for your great perspective. I agree with you that fighting the trend is not often warranted. But it is exactly because of that that I went short. All key markets remain WAY BELOW their all time highs and most markets remain below the 2007 highs and also most are even still below the 2011 highs. The decade long trend is down and hence this short is with the trend long term.
But you are right on the mid and short term. The trend is up unless proven otherwise. The next 5 trading days will likely tell more. Probably even tomorrow is a big turn day.
Its very hard for me to think in that long of a time frame... In BTC time long is anything over 1 year... In the stock market a long time frame can be decades. It is especially difficult because I had no knowledge of, or interest in, major market indices before ~6 months ago. What key markets still below the 2011 highs?
2. Further, Most Asian markets are down vs. 2011(China, India, etc.)
Basically we only have the US up, which is a negative divergence, unless rest of world quickly catched up with the US markets.
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No worries. I have nothing to hide.
As you can see , I outlined two options. The market decided for the second option, but I still favor the bearish resolution from current levels up to 1353 DOWN. And this option remains valid as long at 1370 holds.
I am 90% convinced that we will see at least a strong top pattern this week.
Net a tradable scenario can be to short 1340-1352 with a stop above 1370.
EDIT: Above 1370 is bullish with some more upside, before eventually the crash arrives. This will not invalidate it, just delay the crash. Target remains below 500 for the S&P500
SaP kissed 1399 today. Have you gotten out of your shorts? Have you gone long?
Thanks for keep tracking those trades, keeps me alert. My stop is 1447. Target below 500. Im honestly just curious... I am just starting out watching markets, BTC is actually the first market I ever watched. To my inexperienced eyes the bears lost control when the DJI closed strongly above 13000 this week. If the S&P can finish strong this week... I would go long for the next few months. Edit: BTW I think your short is a good idea... the stock market is WAY over pumped... but what little I have learned in BTC tells me to not fight against the market. The market doesnt care what you think. Your short position will have its day in the sun someday soon though.
But you are right on the mid and short term. The trend is up unless proven otherwise. The next 5 trading days will likely tell more. Probably even tomorrow is a big turn day. |
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pling. ack. was no critic TY |
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No worries. I have nothing to hide.
As you can see , I outlined two options. The market decided for the second option, but I still favor the bearish resolution from current levels up to 1353 DOWN. And this option remains valid as long at 1370 holds.
I am 90% convinced that we will see at least a strong top pattern this week.
Net a tradable scenario can be to short 1340-1352 with a stop above 1370.
EDIT: Above 1370 is bullish with some more upside, before eventually the crash arrives. This will not invalidate it, just delay the crash. Target remains below 500 for the S&P500
SaP kissed 1399 today. Have you gotten out of your shorts? Have you gone long?
Thanks for keep tracking those trades, keeps me alert. My stop is 1447. Target below 500. |
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weekly analysis? Not out yet? or was i missed? I don't see it in my email either...
I never missed a single report since almost 12 months, except when I communicated a 1 day delay once because I had to go to the dentist surgery, and I can tell you, I would have preferred bitcoins instead..
Enjoy it. |
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This last time is not allowed per Elliott Wave guidelines. Wave A's subwaves 1 and 4 are overlapping. And also, the proportions don't look right.
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voila .
The forecast has fully materialzed.
 do you have any longterm advice? |
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voila .
The forecast has fully materialzed.
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The shorts below 5 $ are a great bait for bulls, if they decide to take it...
Perhaps you are right but then...let's wait and see....  |
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The shorts below 5 $ are a great bait for bulls, if they decide to take it...
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good chart. prices need to quickly move above 5 $ to keep this the active count.
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In weeks, months or years to come, when everyone has forgotten about what went on in this 10c price rise, people will look back and say "oh look it was another test of the $7.20 down trend line that failed" or something. It did, however stop the price from immediately eating away at the bottom trend line, which was imminent. For someone who is probably heavily long, knowing what the charts mean if it broke $4.80 at this point, getting the price up was tantamount, using any means necessary. This is always the risk when you trust someone.
The information now made available to you all through this act, is that $5.00 is not going to happen with the volume that the people who act on such information are ready to put out (at least not today). The next question, is then "what is everyone else waiting for?" Perhaps they're leaning south, and needed another test of $5.00 to confirm it...or perhaps they just haven't checked it yet.
I used that information strengthen my existing short, based on my own analysis. If I'm wrong, so be it, I'll salvage what I can just like in any other situation, and of course I won't use my full reserves on a hunch.
+1 Like I've been saying, we need to take a dip before we take off if we want to solidify up as the new long term trend. I believe this is in the interest of the majority of the market, but I won't wager anything close to my entire stack on that. I wouldn't mind riding it up and shorting from higher while we correct.
You can also make the counter argument as there are enough BTC in the order book to drive price down.
We will see soon which is the next big move. It will be coming, as volatility is almost at all time lows - and this will change. |
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Agree Cypher.
And soon we will see a strong inverse correlation of BTC and stocks
Now we can agree in the direction of stocks. i'm short. we reached my objective target of clearing the May highs and now is the time to wrong foot everyone. |
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I agree with you.
The bitcoin market is small, but way to big for my analysis to move the market in any significant way. The forecast only works if the analysis is spot on. I have observed that if my forecast is wrong, the market tells me quickly.
Fortunately my analysis is more right that wrong.
It's probably been a reaction to all the haters, but you sure have grown much more cocky in the year+ I've been observing you S3052. You should consider slowing your roll a little before you make a big slip.
EDIT. And you are also right that it is normal to have some haters. And I have observed that these appear typically around major changing points. |
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Agree Cypher.
And soon we will see a strong inverse correlation of BTC and stocks
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this is a great idea and even better linking it to Gavin's proposed foundation
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Stable would be good for bitcoin merchants, but realistically, this is not going to happen at current levels. More likely there will be wild swings in the next couple of years before there is some stabilization.
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