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1301  Economy / Speculation / Re: Winklevoss launching "Gemini" serving bitcoin to wall street on a golden plate on: January 23, 2015, 08:44:53 AM
I thought they meant the twin towers by Gemini Cheesy well I'll be damned, I was wrong. To Da Mon.
1302  Economy / Speculation / Re: 152$ was the bottom? (July 2013 comparison) on: January 21, 2015, 09:05:58 PM
Do you honestly feel that $152 will be the bottom? Im surprised.

If so, then I correctly predicted bottom in the 5th post of this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=913423.msg10030218#msg10030218

Do you really think someone like me can call bottom? I don't think so. Then you say a broken clock is right twice a day....

What's next.....you will be surprised again....

NICE Cheesy

Last Sunday I was in a bus and at some point I randomly looked out the window and guess what I saw?! There was a car driving right beside the bus and its number plate had "666 BAZ". From here I deduce that we will be returning 666$ per BTC prices soon. But seriously, look at the order book in stamp. Just look at it! Look at it!


That sell wall is like a little midget about to get annihilated by a giant. Also, in my dream in September I saw 150$ bitcoins. The fall to 152$ was exactly dramatic enough to actually be the bottom. As the price cannot go up forever, it cannot go down forever. Fundamentals haven't changed. The mid-term bear market has to come to an end at some point and I believe this is it.
1303  Economy / Speculation / Re: 152$ was the bottom? (July 2013 comparison) on: January 21, 2015, 08:39:10 PM
$152 is the new $275 (and we know how that ended)

This is exactly what I think

That's what they want you to think! Did you even read my opening post? Tongue
1304  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mastering Fear on: January 21, 2015, 08:34:06 PM
the bottom must be near Cheesy one more giant drop to perhaps sub 100$ and UP we go.

If you really think that market confidence won't be completely destroyed for years if we go sub $100, then you really are delusional.  Seriously, I mean it'll take like 5-7 years to recover from sub 100.  If that happens, you might as well sell everything now and put your money elsewhere for years.

You registered in November 2013 and you're telling ME about sub 100 prices, market confidence and what not. Bitch please I was here when the price was 4$ Cheesy
1305  Economy / Speculation / Re: 152$ was the bottom? (July 2013 comparison) on: January 21, 2015, 01:12:34 PM
There's certainly much more upside than downside at this point!

How do you know that...

I heard that also when Bitcoin was $500 $400 $300

When it dipped below $300 people said "Look at the difficulty! It's up by 14% so Bitcoin will for sure go above $300 anytime soon"

Instead, it dipped below $200 not long after that.

There will have to come a day that actually is the bottom, right? (Given that in the long term we are mostly bulls here.)

With each call the chances of IT being the right one will increase Cheesy. Same goes to your life too --- with each day you live the chances of your death increase.
1306  Economy / Speculation / 152$ was the bottom? (July 2013 comparison) on: January 21, 2015, 12:36:04 PM
To quote bassclef from this recent topic:

Having identified both fears, it's fairly easy to see how they are manipulated for profit. Bad news often accompanies bear markets for the same reason good news accompanies bull markets. They are often timed this way to maximize profits for investors. During bull markets, investors can call their friends at CNBC and unwittingly the anchors and news outlets become stock pumpers. They don't know any better, but the smart money does. Why did good news about the dollar come out recently? Because it's at the top of a bull run and those who accumulated months ago need plenty of buy orders to sell into. Good news almost always accompanies market tops to tempt "the herd" into buying through fear. Now do you understand, on this forum and others, why there are so many negative trolls during bear markets and positive trolls during bull markets? They are not there to be your friend, that's for sure!

To test this theory, look at stocks that are being "pumped" on mainstream news outlets. Note the price and return a few months later--likely it will be lower. A good example is the dollar which has been in a steady uptrend for quite some time. Check out recent news, like this gem: http://www.wsj.com/articles/dont-buck-the-dollar-trend-heard-on-the-street-1421189831. There is a chart with the words "Fly Like an Eagle." Are large investors stockpiling dollars at this price? Probably not, but they need someone to sell to, and they know the dumb-dumb public will fall for this. Understanding how this process works, again and again, and how the herd falls for it again and again, is key to understanding how markets operate.

On the 14th of January 2015 this uber bearish article was published:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/14/bitcoin-is-revealed-a-ponzi-scheme-for-redistributing-wealth-from-one-libertarian-to-another/

Just right after fall to 152$ to encourage people into selling even more bitcoins. It's been long time since we last saw such volume. Putting it all together, I started to suspect that what we are witnessing is the end of the year long bear market. Last time this happened was in July 2013 when we bottomed at 65$. My question is --- is 152$ the new 65$? If that's so we should slowly but surely return to 450$, consolidate there for a while and then enter into new bubble phase (May 2015).



The buy/sell walls have changed notably. We can see that the walls are not equal at all these days but I remember that they were rather equally shaped over a long period of time before we fell to 152$. This makes me wonder how the walls looked like on the 13th of July 2013. Can anyone seek out the picture of the buy/sell walls from that time? I searched the wall observer thread but didn't find any good comparison to this:


So what other similarities do we have between 14th of January 2015 and 6th of July 2013? Turns out that during the next 7 days after the violent crash the price recovered by ~40% and in 2013 it never returned back. It is 7 days since we fell to 152$ and we are up ~40% already! Look at the comparison below:



Also, do we have any uber bear news from the 7th of July 2013 so that we could compare them with the news from 14th of January 2015? I personally just bought back the bitcoins I sold at 300$, so I'm bullish from now on.
1307  Economy / Speculation / Re: The next bull market + collapse of short interest bubble on: January 20, 2015, 09:57:49 PM
Hoping for ETF  is like hoping for Litecoin on Gox. Totally irrelevant.

Cheesy haha, one of my friend's friend actually kept bitcoins on mt gox but had to leave the internet for several months and instructed my friend to use his account for buying heavily into ltc if ltc came to gox. I don't know if he was goxxed in the end or not, but that ltc going to gox story was fun.

anyway, is there any date announced when the etf goes live?
1308  Economy / Speculation / Re: The next bull market + collapse of short interest bubble on: January 20, 2015, 09:50:34 PM
Even so, do you think people are better off speculating on popular altcoins? Seems like there is a lot more potential to make big gains there.

Definitely. Perhaps it's wise to look at the charts and detect the altcoins that are not affected by bitcoin's movement so much? NuShares seems pretty independent from Bitcoin's price.
1309  Economy / Speculation / Re: The next bull market on: January 20, 2015, 09:41:25 PM
So what I am saying is that most of this entire move is manipulated with the use of leveraged selling into the market, allowing major players to accumulate astonishing amounts of bitcoin in the recent capitulation low, probably off exchange.

Who are these "major players", I wonder? Who (that is presumably already rather rich) stands to get so much richer?

Warring Buffer is secretly filling his buckets with bitcoins while scaring other investors away by yelling "I wouldn't touch bitcoin with a stick"
1310  Economy / Speculation / Re: The next bull market + collapse of short interest bubble on: January 20, 2015, 08:28:11 PM
nice topic, OP might be on to something
1311  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: NuBits are operating as a fractional reserve. on: January 18, 2015, 12:32:34 PM
The first one is such a poor argument I'm surprised you even dare use it. This has been proven wrong time and time again in the real world, Karpeles being a great example. Any time people have access to large amounts of money there is a risk of them running away with it, period.

If that's so poor argument then why the whole world essentially relies on trust? Stop trying so hard to undermine what I have said because you're reducing the quality of your post and you are bloating the topic with crap. Karpeles didn't even have cryptographic shares for his company. The fact that you even dare to use mtgox as a comparison shows your low degree of willingness to be constructive in this discussion. Not cool, man, you're wasting my time. Bad karma.

...And yes, as with anything, there is risk (should really be obvious).

Second argument: Unless I'm mistaken the user "Kiara Tamm" has access to at least 1.8 million NuBits. How much of her own money did she put up in order to do so? Zero as far as I can tell.. Why do you feel comfortable trusting her with that amount of money? From what I can tell looking through her posts she's already made huge losses on the price slide of PPC from 1.4$ do ~0.3$ today.

I don't know about that. NuBits is just in the beginning phase and much of the power is currently distributed unevenly. I expect this to change as the network matures.

The third argument: that's a big statement that you cannot back up with anything. It might be, it might not be.. While Bitshares also has human intervention for now in the form price feeds, a major difference from NuBits is that no humans have the ability to run away with money as is the case for Nubits.

If you're background has anything to do with computer science then it should be fairly obvious to you that a mathematical protocol such as the block chain cannot stabilize the price on its own. For example, how should the computer know how much humans value gold at the current time? Unless we start building conscious computers, my original argument remains valid. Simple logic, but again I sense someone trying too hard to "win the debate".

Fourth: Looking at CMC i see 0 volume for NBT/USD, the major volume is for NBT/BTC, meaning the custodians must have taken huge losses from the fall in BTC price.

I don't care to verify that because it's obviously possible for a custodian to screw something up and take huge losses. So far NBT has never lost the peg. The fact that NuBits actually survived the drop of BTC even when some custodians took losses further proves the trustworthiness of NuNet.

At the end of the day what matters is: if there is a "run on the Nubits bank", can the custodians make everyone whole?

You can refer to the whitepaper to find an answer to that question. No one guarantees you that at any point of time you will get 1 USD for your 1 NBT. The mere essence of NuBits is to do its best to maintain the peg. If you don't trust it, don't use it. Same goes to dollars. I understand that right now there is much doubt in the air since Nu is just a couple of months old. When the time comes and NuBits has successfully maintained its peg for several years then all doubts should fade. Just let Nu prove itself and don't be hasty calling it a scam.
1312  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Trade your nubits to BitUSD on bter.com NOW, before they become worthless! on: January 18, 2015, 08:07:08 AM
For example, if I want to be a custodian for Nu, I first must have my own personal capital (say 5000$). Now I promise to provide buy side liquidity for a month in return of 500 NBT. The nushareholders then vote and if I get elected I must use my own funds for a month to provide that liquidity. Instead of 5000$ I can use 10000$ or just 1000$. Either way I must prove to nushareholders that I filled my promise and this can be done. So if I cheat, for example, then I don't get elected next time (and perhaps I don't even get the 500 NBT?). So, now you ask NuBits custodians to publish proof of solvency? As a custodian in this hypothetical scenario, I personally don't care if some internet troll asks proof since I'm using my own capital to begin with. If the nushareholders doubt in my solvency then they simply won't elect me as a custodian.

This sounds very dangerous. Essentially we are being asked to trust you, which is opposite to the trustless movement Bitcoin started.

Who is we? The shareholders must trust the custodian. A regular nubits user must trust the shareholders to make the right decisions for the network. To have a cryptocurrency that is not volatile, a degree of human intervention is needed. There's simply no other way. The custodian is putting their PERSONAL capital at risk. If a single custodian defaults it's solely their problem and regular nubits users have nothing to worry about. There are many independent custodians operating concurrently on different exchanges which provides a perfect safety mechanism.

Quote from: robrigo
Say I get voted in using $5000 of my own capital. I use this capital to buy BTC to make a BTC/NBT market. Now BTC crashes by 30%. All of the sudden, everyone who bought NBT from me wants to get back into BTC for exposure because they think it will rise. But my initial capital is insufficient to pay them all back, because I took a loss of 30% from BTC exposure. Is some other custodian just supposed to eat that loss? Or maybe more NBT should be made out of thin air...

In the worst case scenario all operational custodians default at once. Although this is extremely unlikely, let's imagine what would happen. First, the peg is lost so the value of 1 NBT will be whatever the market decides. Then, demand arises to have new custodians providing buy side liquidity. These new custodians will replace the ones that defaulted. The peg will be restored. This works as long as there is supply of custodians.
1313  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Trade your nubits to BitUSD on bter.com NOW, before they become worthless! on: January 18, 2015, 07:29:03 AM
So when / where are NuBits custodians going to publish proof of solvency? The burden of proof is on them, considering they are the only ones with access to that information.

Do you understand that Nu custodians use their own finances?

https://discuss.nubits.com/t/bitusd-finally-has-some-volume-inspired-by-success-of-nu:
Quote from: mhps
Nu is a collection of people using their own funds with strategies they agree to (via a uncorruptable voting mechanism) to provide superb performance and usability of a pegged product to the user. Apparently many people in the BitShares community like having MM bot. Next you will see bots colliding and will have to coordinate. You will move more close to how Nu operates. We are all just different part of the same spectrum.

For example, if I want to be a custodian for Nu, I first must have my own personal capital (say 5000$). Now I promise to provide buy side liquidity for a month in return of 500 NBT. The nushareholders then vote and if I get elected I must use my own funds for a month to provide that liquidity. Instead of 5000$ I can use 10000$ or just 1000$. Either way I must prove to nushareholders that I filled my promise and this can be done. So if I cheat, for example, then I don't get elected next time (and perhaps I don't even get the 500 NBT?). So, now you ask NuBits custodians to publish proof of solvency? As a custodian in this hypothetical scenario, I personally don't care if some internet troll asks proof since I'm using my own capital to begin with. If the nushareholders doubt in my solvency then they simply won't elect me as a custodian.
1314  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Trade your nubits to BitUSD on bter.com NOW, before they become worthless! on: January 18, 2015, 07:02:04 AM
so there's no proof.  delete this thread.

Or perhaps just the first post Cheesy because it does provide some good information about the essence of nubits.
1315  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: NuBits are operating as a fractional reserve. on: January 17, 2015, 11:03:56 PM
Isnt' NuSharers doing exactly what the Swiss central bank was doing? Trying to artificially maintain the peg of the franc to the euro. When the euro value got so low they gave up because it was damaging the Franc. When will the NuShares holders give-up?

When USD starts performing real bad another peg will be chosen to protect the wealth of the people holding nubits. When hyperinflation of USD happens, for example.
1316  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: NuBits are operating as a fractional reserve. on: January 17, 2015, 06:01:42 PM
Also Zer0Sum missed the point that there's a HUGE difference between the consequences of 30% daily volatility and 0.3%.
1317  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Trade your nubits to BitUSD on bter.com NOW, before they become worthless! on: January 17, 2015, 02:41:33 PM
Your entire argument that you are not able to provide a decentralized vault of reserves is untrue.

BitShares has an average of 300% decentralized collateral backing BitUSD. That's collateral without centralized counterparty risk.

I'm also well aware of examples like e-gold. No central point of failure is an advantage but is not an excuse for not having decentralized reserves too. Ironically the majority of cases, where centralized funds are lost, like Gox, are not a validation for NuBits but rather a warning as to why you shouldn't buy NuBits.

Any system without decentralized proof of reserves requires you to trust audits/incentives/good intentions. Blockchains with their decentralized ledgers and decentralized systems of control solve this and allow you to verify your funds & collateral are accounted for and secure.

As I said earlier, without decentralized proof of reserves, NuBits has used decentralization & the fantastic invention of the blockchain not to better protect customer funds than say a Bank/Mt. Gox but has instead used it to decentralize the role of the owners of those fractional reserve systems who will be unable to reimburse customers in the event of large redemptions.

Deja vu. Again we go back to the reserves. I'm almost tempted to let you prove the existence, location and custodians of the "300% decentralized collateral backing BitUSD" but I really don't care since this topic is not about BitUSD (whatever that is).

And what the hell has mtgox to do here with anything? Cheesy

It is clear that much of the confusion arises from the definitions of the terms such as:
  • reserves
  • decentralized reserves
  • decentralized vault of reserves
  • decentralized proof of reserves
  • decentralized systems of control

So when you prepare your next reply, please take time to provide me with a rigorous definition of those terms. I would also like to remind you that in the context of NuBits the conventional notion of reserves is irrelevant and there's a good reason for that.

The so called reserves are paralyzed wealth --- they just sit somewhere safe (hopefully), doing nothing. The clever concept of NuBits, however, uses those reserves to provide liquidity. If at some point audit is needed, it can easily be arranged. By cryptographically signing a message with the private keys that store the wealth held by liquidity providers their individual solvency can be verified.

Having said that, we see why the term reserves is not appropriate in the context of NuBits. Thus, an attentive reader could easily conclude that the term fractional reserves doesn't really apply to NuBits either.
1318  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Trade your nubits to BitUSD on bter.com NOW, before they become worthless! on: January 17, 2015, 10:47:58 AM
NuBits however, unlike a gold vault doesn't have the assets available to allow a large percentage of people to redeem their NuBits for $1 & without new money coming in, their current system will collapse. Their blockchain doesn't transparently allow you to verify the collateral/assets are there or secure either. NuBits is essentially the worst of both worlds for anyone holding NuBits but the best of both for the people you buy NuBits from as the majority have a great level of anonymity unlike centralized counterparts running similar systems.

Wrong, NuBits has assets available to allow a large percentage of people to redeem their nubits for 1$.

Without new money coming in, nothing will collapse. Assuming such a collapse is as ignorant as saying that without BTC's price increasing the development of the open-source protocol of Bitcoin will stop and network stops confirming transactions.

The blockchain indeed cannot allow verification of a lot of things. That's the reason why NuBits was built the way it was. If it was possible for the blockchain to verify exchange rate of BTC/USD then the volatility issue could be solved on the protocol level. Because a mathematical protocol cannot track the exchange rate of its units of value by itself we need to choose between 2 options:
  • Fight volatility with the means of centralized human intervention
  • Fight volatility with the means of decentralized human intervention

Which of these two do you think is the lesser evil?

Correct! Decentralization is the future.
Quote from: David A. Johnston
Everything that can be decentralized, will be decentralized.

Perhaps I am just a random internet's folk with a clear agenda to defend NuBits so my arguments are somehow less plausible? No problem, I can link you some objective scientific material that favours the approach NuBits has taken:
http://www.coindesk.com/japanese-scholars-draft-proposal-better-bitcoin/

So, if we want a cryptocurrency that is not volatile, NuBits is exactly the only and most reasonable way to achieve it. Fact is that there is clear demand for volatility-free cryptocurrencies. Wherever there is demand there will eventually be supply. Don't hate the player, hate the game.

NuBits is essentially the best of both worlds for anyone holding NuBits because:
  • Currency board's decision-making is fully transparent.
  • Anyone who holds nushares can participate in voting.
  • The software is open source.
  • The system is fully decentralized.

If NuBits had a central vault of reserves I wouldn't be in their community. I have seen peg failing due to the centralized reserves before (paycoin promised 20$ floor but failed miserably). The reason such centralization is impending doom is that it's a central point of failure and those reserves have a legal owner. The legal owner can go rogue or some other disaster could destroy the reservs, bringing down the whole concept. I think I don't need to remind you e-gold and Liberty Dollar.
1319  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Trade your nubits to BitUSD on bter.com NOW, before they become worthless! on: January 16, 2015, 10:44:06 PM
The argument they're selling you that there is no central point of failure because there is no vault of assets backing the whole thing up is brilliant!

That's like a gold vault telling you they've removed centralized risk because when you give them your gold they spend it on hookers and blow and then say 'Look! There's no gold in the vault! No centralized risk!'

Don't worry. We'll maintain the value of your deposit by agreeing what it's worth and maintaining a buy and sell wall because it's in our interest to do so  Tongue (Hint: It's only in their interest to do so while new money is coming in.)

(Their argument of not being able to provide reserves without centralized risk is also more balderdash because BitShares is able to provide an average of 300% collateral without centralised counterparty risk/central point of failure.)

Yes, it is brilliant. No, it's not like gold vault telling you what you just said. About your hint, you just destroyed your own argument with it. It's in the interest of any shareholder to keep new money coming in, that's the point. That's why the shareholders won't run away with the money. Your line of logic assumes that a treasurer would run away with the money they look after. So why aren't all the security guards and treasurers running away with the money they guard? Answer that question and you will see the problem in your statement.

Quote from: ThomasVeil
How am I then guaranteed that I get my USD back when things go bad? Just hope that someone feels like and is capable of upholding the promise?

Bitshares at least has the promise to work as long as their currency doesn't drop more than 60% quickly (and not too many people bought into it).

How are you guaranteed that you will live till tomorrow to spend your USD? You're not guaranteed because no one can guarantee it. Even the companies that "guarantee" you stuff are not guaranteed to actually guarantee you what they promise. Cheesy

So, you are not guaranteed anything, anyway. NuBits at least has the promise to work as long as the majority of shareholders agree to keep that promise. NuShareholders aren't just some random internet trolls who speculatively bought into nushares early on. They are trustworthy people who have shown skills and intent to develop and maintain NuNet. The beauty of this is that NuNet really is an autonomous (anonymous) decentralized global organisation (and it pays dividends, yay!).
1320  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Trade your nubits to BitUSD on bter.com NOW, before they become worthless! on: January 16, 2015, 09:58:17 PM
I never really got the concept i guess tho I see a lot of their posts on r/cryptocurrency. I kind of want to *break away* from fractional reserve and pegged currencies.

Me too. But you must understand that nubits are not hard pegged. The shareholders can decide what buy/sell walls they maintain. The voting is decentralized and you can do that with the private keys of your nushares. Should USD collapse, the nushareholders would probably set some other (more reliable) peg.

The mere function of the peg is to reduce volatility by mutually agreeing on what the price should be. The term "fractional reserve" in the context of nubits does not make any sense. NuBits does its best to maintain the price of 1 NBT at the desired value in a decentralized manner. There is no central point of failure since there is no giant vault of assets backing the whole thing up.

The whole idea behind NuBits was to separate store of value function from the currency function. Currency should not be volatile and nushareholders do their best to keep volatility away from nubits. It is for their interest to fulfill the promise because if nubits succeeds there will be more dividends paid to the shareholders.
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