The cynicism of your reasoning here just rolls over. Are you saying that the war in Ukraine would have ended long ago if the United States had not provided military and other assistance to Ukraine? Yes, Ukraine in this case, perhaps, would have been captured by Russia and destroyed as a state, and Ukrainians as a nation. At the same time, the leadership of Ukraine would have been shot or tortured along with a significant part of the civilian population, as the Russians did in the suburbs of Kyiv, when they believed that the war would soon end in victory for them. After the liberation of this territory, more than one and a half thousand civilian corpses, including women and children, were found in the Kyiv region alone, with signs of torture and violent death. Are you talking about such a desired result on this forum?
The people who are in full support of Russia and Putin will always come out and say "Ukraine war wouldn't happen if USA and EU didn't cause it" because in their mind it means "Ukraine would have been in under Russian control" and nothing more. They are basically saying that Ukraine should have been left powerless to start a war or defend one. We all know that the first action was taken by Russia, Ukraine did nothing but just responded them and that’s it, there is nothing that Ukraine started, if Russia leaves all Ukrainian lands tomorrow, Ukraine won't attack them. Hence, it shows that Russia only wants west to get out in order to take whole of Ukraine and nothing more. Absolutely right. In Russia, the goals and reasons for the attack on Ukraine are periodically changed, and this testifies to the constant and continuous lies that now permeate the entire domestic and foreign policy of this state. Russia needs Ukraine, its territory, its hardworking and intelligent people, it needs its history to appropriate it for itself, but it does not need an independent state itself and does not need a freedom-loving nation next to this authoritarian country. Ukraine posed no threat to Russia, whether it was in NATO or not. But Ukraine in NATO would be inaccessible to Russian attack, and therefore they rushed to try to capture it. Thus, Russia made a fatal mistake for itself. This is not true, the goals of the special operation have remained unchanged since February 2022 - the protection and liberation of Donbas, the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. The geography of the operation has slightly changed, since the authorities in Kyiv turned out to be incapable of negotiating and refuse to negotiate, the original terms of the peace agreement are now irrelevant. This is Putin's usual way of negotiating - his first offer is the best, and then the conditions get worse. Now Ukraine will at least lose the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, as well as Kharkov, Nikolaev and Odessa. I can answer your question about the situation around the Zaporozhye NPP.
Putin and his entourage have already understood that the war in Ukraine is lost for them and are trying to blackmail the inhabitants of the planet with the nuclear threat they themselves created. They need this in order to quickly end the unsuccessfully launched war on more or less acceptable terms for themselves. Having seized the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Ukraine, they interfere in the technological processes, placed artillery and multiple launch rocket systems on its territory and fire them at other settlements in Ukraine, hoping that they will not be fired at in response. Recently, they have mined the nuclear power plant and spread the word that if they have to withdraw, they will blow it up. In this case, the scale of the accident will exceed the consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant by about ten times. In addition, they themselves began to fire at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and say that the Ukrainians are doing it. Why do they need it?
Now, on the right bank of the Dnieper in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, the most combat-ready units of the two Russian armies, totaling approximately 20,000 people, are practically surrounded. Four bridges, through which the Russians could supply these troops with equipment and ammunition, are now damaged by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and it is no longer possible to transport anything over them. In addition, these bridges are under the full fire control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are capable of striking them at any time. Russia can no longer do anything about this, since Russia already has problems with "live meat", and every day the Armed Forces of Ukraine methodically deliver precision strikes against ammunition depots, command posts and concentrations of Russian troops. Under such conditions, Putin's entourage is looking for ways to end the war, or at least withdraw troops from the region without looking like a defeat. So they create tension around the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in order to explain the need to demilitarize this territory and explain the reason for the withdrawal of their troops from it. Although it will be very difficult to withdraw. Russian troops pressed against the Dnieper will have to abandon their unfinished military equipment and cross the wide Dnieper by swimming or using improvised means. In the near future we will see how further events will unfold.
I think soon IAEA inspectors and UN commissioners will arrive at the nuclear power plant and determine who is shelling it. So far, Russia has strengthened the air defense system and managed to intercept all of today's shells that continue to fly to the nuclear power plant from the territory of Ukraine controlled by Kyiv. |
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Everyone considers what Russia could give to the world, and nobody asks what could world give to Russia. What you are forgetting is that while they may have some things that the world wants, we shouldn't forget that there are a lot of things that the world can provide which Russia wants. Even something as simple as a facebook ad goes from a Russians pocket to Mark Zuckerberg’s pocket with that logic.
This is why it is quite important that if the world finds a way to not use oil or gas or wheat from Russia, and yet in the future Russians still use products from other nations, the money that they have right now would go down more and more and more, which will put them in trouble.
Facebook is banned in Russia, and the Meta company is recognized as extremist, so Mark Zuckerberg does not earn money in Russia. This is the main reason for the failure of sanctions against Russia - it seems that in the West no one really knows what modern Russia is and are based on the old stereotypes of the era of Gorbachev and Yeltsin. They tried to sort of shake up the topic of "oil in exchange for food", but it suddenly turned out that Russia also has plenty of food.  |
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Financial affairs in Russia are not so good. Indeed, due to higher energy prices, the fall of the Russian economy in 2022 has undergone an adjustment from 10–30% to 6–9.5%. And the level of annual inflation decreased from the projected 20% to 12-15%.
However, the sanctions have already affected the domestic economy. The reduction in the production of Russian cars in June was 62% compared to this month last year. Industrial production in June fell by 1.8% compared to the same period in 2021. The main sanctions against the Russian energy sector have not yet entered into force. December 5 will earn sanctions on the export of Russian offshore oil to the European Union. February 5, 2023 - Russian oil products.
The volume of sales of Russian gas to Europe is now a third of last year's level. It looks like it will decline from now on, and will practically stop no later than 2024. Then Germany expects to be completely independent of Russian gas. After the entry into force of all European sanctions in the oil and gas sector, Russia's income from energy exports is expected to decrease by 40%.
Russia is reducing gas supplies to the countries of the European Union, therefore losing its main sales market. After the end of the war with Ukraine, economic ties with the Russian Federation will not resume for a long time, and therefore the impact of sanctions will continue to operate for some time even after they are lifted.
Russia survived the initial sanctions shock quite easily, much easier than Western analysts expected. And for several months now it has been living in conditions of deflation against the backdrop of a consistent reduction in the key rate by the Central Bank of Russia. This is the difference and the key advantage of Russia in its economic confrontation with the European Union, which is forced to live in conditions of inflation and rising prices, against the backdrop of a growing key rate. You cite the decline in car production in Russia as an argument, but there is a nuance. Several European manufacturers immediately stopped their factories in Russia due to sanctions and a special operation, but who really suffers from this - Russia or European automakers? |
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The entire territory of Ukraine is completely shot through by Russian land, air and sea-based missiles, and the missile defense of Ukraine cannot do anything about it - this is a fact. Of course you use your technical superiority to shoot like real cowards from afar and kill children in schools and people in shopping centers, but in close battles Ukrainians teach you lessons about what it means to be a true patriot. When Ukrainians target legitimate military targets anywhere in the occupied territory, you call them terrorists... The Russian Aerospace Forces are in good technical shape and excellent combat tone. Front-line aviation performs combat missions every day, mainly at ultra-low altitudes beyond the reach of radars and brings terror to the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
We saw this a few days ago, when the Ukrainians prepared summer fireworks for you in Crimea, even 300 kilometers from the front line - the superior planes of the fifth and sixth generation did not even manage to take off - a great success of the Russian military aviation. Money and military supremacy are not always decisive in war, and your Serbian brothers can confirm that because they are still whining about the defeat they experienced more than 30 years ago. The superstar of this operation is the Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter.
You mean these superior helicopters that the Ukrainians destroy without any problems? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMX9cEf8qVgReminiscent of arguments about the weakness of the Russian Black Sea Fleet due to the loss of the flagship. The local tactical successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine set off in contrast the strategic fiasco of Ukraine, which has almost completely lost its fleet and air force. |
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I would not brag about your military planes, which until today have not managed to dominate the sky above Ukraine,
I'm not a military analyst but I don't think Russia wanted to use its planes because losing a pilot is too expensive a loss to risk it. Any other asset (except maybe big warships) could be replaced (ground troops, tanks, radars/SAMs and their operators) but a pilot can not be easily replaced. This is why I've always said the future wars is fought with drones not people. It is true that modern military planes are terribly expensive, and pilot training is demanding, expensive and time-consuming, but the fact is that you cannot skimp on such things if you want to achieve superiority in the air. The fact is that Ukraine has very successfully defended its airspace since the beginning of the invasion, and today it is doing it even better and more efficiently. Drones are of course something that is being used more and more, but military planes are still something that every sovereign country that cares about its security wants to have. Speaking of drones, these days I am reading news about Russia buying drones from Iran (Shahed-129 and Shahed-191) and that the Russian delegation has already visited the Kasan air base several times to see for themselves their capabilities. The entire territory of Ukraine is completely shot through by Russian land, air and sea-based missiles, and the missile defense of Ukraine cannot do anything about it - this is a fact. The Russian Aerospace Forces are in good technical shape and excellent combat tone. Front-line aviation performs combat missions every day, mainly at ultra-low altitudes beyond the reach of radars and brings terror to the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The superstar of this operation is the Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter. And maybe it is not enough today, but I guarantee you that it will be enough in the long term because tech is ever improving and we will have a much better one eventually, the price would drop and improvements and new features would make it a viable source of energy to whole Europe.
At the moment, your guarantees are invalid. The green agenda has beautiful pictures on presentations, but right now it does not stand the test of practice. The wind blows unevenly, sometimes it is calm or the wind is too strong for a windmill, the same thing happens with solar panels. Controlled thermonuclear fusion would be a good solution, but its implementation is still in question and the timing is constantly shifting. In general, the world cannot do without the burning of hydrocarbons, even if everyone unanimously switches from gasoline cars to electric cars. To "green" Europe will have to abandon the industry. |
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Maybe slightly more money, but Russia will go bankrupt by that time and learn their lessons and will not attack anywhere anymore since the finances will be in terrible condition when they fail to sell anything to anyone. They are doing fine now thanks to gas and oil prices going up, but what if they fail to sell it to anyone in the future?
The attempt by the United States, Great Britain, Australia, Japan and the European Union to isolate Russia with sanctions, disconnect it from the world trade and financial system and turn it into a pariah country has failed mediocrely. Russia has been preparing for this for a long time and has successfully passed the test of sovereignty and stability. The idea that Russia will immediately go bankrupt if the dollar is banned is naive and absurd, only an idiot could believe it. Russia is the largest, richest and most influential country in the world, just look at the geographic globe of the Earth and it will become self-evident. |
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The situation in Russia is well described by this funny phrase: "...things in the country were going badly. That is, not so bad, one could even say good, but every year it gets worse and worse"  A certain surge of income, due to the economic terror of the EU, looks like a premortal, unexpected activity of a dying person. It happens - a person fades away, he gets worse and worse, and then such a surge of activity, he looks like he is recovering ... but after 3-5 days he dies. The same is happening with Russia. The next 3-4 months will be critical for Russia - an irreversible loss of the European market for gas supplies. Even Germany turned away from the bloody ghouls from the Kremlin! Ahead is the EU's rejection of Russian oil, to be more precise - tanker oil, which makes up the bulk of deliveries to the EU (a pipeline, if I'm not mistaken, something like - up to 15% of the total). The costs of "maintaining" the ruble (should the people be shown a beautiful fairy tale before they die? ) are enormous. Even more huge costs of war and terror in Ukraine. Especially after the friends of Ukraine supplied Ukraine with high-tech weapons - the losses and losses of Russia are growing unrealistically quickly and on a large scale. And Western technologies are no longer there ... And they won’t be! In a word - watch the patient, and do not miss the moment to say goodbye to him while he is still moving Lol. Dude, you don't understand what's going on in Russia at all. The government and the Central Bank are now making great efforts to, on the contrary, avoid an excessive strengthening of the ruble (because it is unprofitable with such a huge trade surplus). In short, a huge flow of euros is now going to Russia for the supplied energy resources, and these euros have nowhere to spend. The euro for Russia is now an extremely toxic monetary asset, with high risks of blocking due to many sanctions. Under the terms of Putin's "gas for rubles" scheme, euros coming to Gazprombank should be immediately exchanged for rubles through the stock exchange, but who and why will buy them there and where will he spend them? This is one of the main reasons why Nord Stream pumps only 20% of its capacity, because Russia does not need as many euros as Europe needs Russian gas! With the US dollar, the situation is simpler, because the US dependence on Russia is not as strong as that of Europe, and because the dollar is still the world's reserve currency and is welcomed in many places in the world. And the euro is used only in Europe and is only suitable for paying for European goods, which are almost all now under sanctions for Russia. This is not a very good situation for Russia and a complete fuck-up for the European Union. |
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Welll done! Man, you got them nothing escapes your insight. All is fake, all psi games, nothing is happening. There is no concentration of troops, there will never be an offensive, you are all right and RF will just be there forever. In fact, you can move all your troops out, there is nothing coming so no need to keep them there.
Why do you think the RF troops are there? No need.
Danke schön. My insight also did not escape Ukraine's attempt to concentrate a strike force in the north of the country in the Kharkiv direction. The main problem in the preparation of the Ukrainian counterattack is not even the lack of offensive weapons, but the fact that in response to any attempt to concentrate forces, a high-precision Russian missile follows, so the concentration of forces has to be as covert and dispersed as possible. Which in itself is very difficult, because dispersed concentration is an oxymoron, "like a giant shrimp." |
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Ему даже всё равно, что запукры пытаются Чернобыль-2 устроить всей Укроляндии и Европе.
Наверное, он ещё и радоваться будет, если они разъебут ЗАЭС, потому что там "русня" ведь давно.
Это всё страшилки для лохов для медиаэффекта - пупок развяжется ссаными химарсами пробить купол АЭС или контейнер с отработанным топливом штоб радиация наружу протекла. Там если Боинг со взрывчаткой сверху упадёт оно и то не треснет. |
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Sorry, your message is too long and I will allow myself to answer it selectively. Russia will be forced to sell less gas and oil on much lower prices.
And how do you plan to implement it? And most importantly, when? So far, all the efforts of the West to ensure that Russia begins to earn less and cannot afford to continue the special operation ends with the fact that we are discussing a record positive trade balance of Russia, that is, the West was able to significantly reduce imports to Russia by sanctions, but could not even close proportionally reduce export from Russia. And even if physical export from Russia still fell, this brings more money to the Russian budget, because oil prices are quite high, and gas prices are even inadequately high. The weak link in the cornerstone of your reasoning is that you wishful thinking. This means shortages your propaganda seems to forget about.
But I hope you remember the chronic deficit of your budget well. For many years of zero and even negative rates, the European Union has become accustomed to living beyond its means, plugging huge holes in the budget with loan allocations. Welcome to the era of rising key rates. Welcome to the era of double digit inflation. And say goodbye to the era of cheap money, the European Union is already on the verge of bankruptcy - and you fantasize about the coming financial difficulties of Russia? Take care of your pressing financial difficulties. Who in their right mind would buy European bonds with negative yields, especially after Europe froze Russian money in front of the whole world? This is not Russia, an unreliable supplier of energy resources, but the European Union, an unreliable buyer. Look at the dynamics of the euro exchange rate, if now for one euro they give one dollar, then in six months for one euro they will only give 50 cents, and in a year for one euro they will give you a fist in the eye. Think about it at your leisure. While shortages are indeed possible, it's the industry that will be affected most, not the population, exactly because the politicians love their seats.
Well, of course, the European Union will do a great job with the shortage of gas if it stops the heavy and chemical industries. The main thing is that ten million Ukrainian refugees and ten million new unemployed people do not freeze from the cold in winter. Great plan, as reliable as a Swiss watch. |
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Did it occur to you that in the same way as "it won't be easy, but Russia will cope", also EU will cope? Of course, it will not be easy, as it's a harsh awakening.
But, as a friend of mine use to say, every kick in the ass produce another step forward. EU may do now (sadly under pressure) some moves they should have done from the first place.
Right now, let's face it, it's a situation both sides are losing similarly and both sides can, similarly, evolve.
Ahaha, you all quarreled there already, although the embargo only on coal began to operate only today. By December, when the oil embargo comes into effect, different EU countries will begin to pull the blanket over themselves. The European Union is sewn together with too fragile threads from too different countries and Europeans are too accustomed to a high standard of living for the European Union to be able to maintain its unity in the face of severe energy shortages. Already several European leaders and governments have resigned since the start of the special operation in Ukraine, and they will all have to resign - because that is how democracy works. And they will be replaced by more sensible politicians who will be forced to abstract from politics and begin urgently solving the economic problems that have accumulated since the pandemic - because that is how democracy works. And in order to quickly solve economic problems, it is not a shortage of energy that is needed, but its excess, which Europe, with all its desire, has nowhere to get from except Russia. Think about it at your leisure. ps It's strange that I'm telling you how democracy works, because you seem to have completely forgotten about it. And with the planes, we'll come up with something, don't even hesitate. If a country is capable of developing sixth-generation fighters, it will somehow figure it out with passenger airliners.
I would not brag about your military planes, which until today have not managed to dominate the sky above Ukraine, and therefore I think that it is just ordinary propaganda that Russia is powerful. Oh, but they do have 6th generation planes! Definitely! I mean, maybe it's true that their own military doesn't know that since even the su57 is the fifth generation, but they totally do. It's the new super stealth aircraft that you can see at all, it's so stealth even the bombs dropped from it don't do any visual damage at all. Fifth-generation fighter jets are already occasionally flying over Ukraine, and Russian design bureaus are developing next-generation fighters, because Russia is always one step ahead and has not stopped new developments even in the most difficult years. The West naively thought that it had defeated the USSR in the Cold War, but in fact, with the collapse of the USSR, it liberated Russia from a dozen fraternal republics that had been sucking all the juice out of Russia for decades. Now try to defeat Russia if you can. They sit there in Europe with empty arsenals and two front divisions of combat faggots and think they are the kings of this party lol. |
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So a referendum will not be recognized by Ukraine.
And who asks the opinion of Ukraine? When (if) these regions become part of Russia, the river of military aid from the West will turn into a thin stream or dry up altogether. Because it is one thing to help Ukraine defend its territories, and quite another to help Ukraine attack Russian territory. Think about it at your leisure. |
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About a thousand Western companies left the Russian market, and this cost them hundreds of billions of dollars in direct losses (but this also negatively affects Russia's GDP figures). Is this a problem for Russia? Is. But this is not a dramatic problem and it is also an opportunity. When the market is freed, there is a free place on it for internal development or for substitution by imports from friendly countries.
I'm curious what will the "friendly countries" do about really important things there are very few companies produce them and they've put Russia onto sanctions list. It's easy to mock the exit of "sparkling water", but I've read not long ago about increasing problems caused by the lack of components for airplanes. The news tell that the industry has started cannibalizing some of the already broken planes to obtain components for the rest. Of course, this cannot work for long term. And who promised that it would be easy? There are problems with airplanes, cars, microelectronics, software - they are serious and need to be addressed. Of course, Russia will cope with these challenges one way or another. But that won't stop the Russians from watching the impressive spectacle of EU energy suicide. Any sane person understands that it is impossible to replace the falling volumes of energy supplies either this winter, or even next. And with the planes, we'll come up with something, don't even hesitate. If a country is capable of developing sixth-generation fighters, it will somehow figure it out with passenger airliners. |
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Dude, Russia has over 10,000 sanctions and Russia's GDP is down less than 5%. If this is your success, then what is failure?
But I thought sanctions are not doing a thing, now a 5% drop and further going down acceptable? It crashed 7.8% during Covid with everything closed and now doing just fine with, just looking above, hundreds of billions in extra income but is going down by 4.9%? I don't get it, simple I can't, how does this work? You get an extra 30% income from your work but when you come back home you suddenly owe money? This must be one economical miracle, or again the devil is in details, the export balance is so high up and the GDP is going down maybe because everything that was made in Russia was dependent on imports, so without imports which have crashed to zero, there is no production, only ladas without airbags and stabilizing aircraft for spare parts. When you don't even have potatoes so serve at your local McPutin something really fishy must be happening in Mordor. I am not saying that the sanctions are not felt at all, because this is not true. About a thousand Western companies left the Russian market, and this cost them hundreds of billions of dollars in direct losses (but this also negatively affects Russia's GDP figures). Is this a problem for Russia? Is. But this is not a dramatic problem and it is also an opportunity. When the market is freed, there is a free place on it for internal development or for substitution by imports from friendly countries. And most of the companies that left simply lost the market and money, like Coca-Cola. Or do you really think that without sparkling water, the quality of life of Russians will worsen? Western sanctions in 2022 did not cause serious damage to Russia, because the West had already imposed all the really critical sanctions against Russia in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea, and Russia has completely learned to live under sanctions. But Europe did not learn any lessons after 2014 and did not take care of its energy security, for which it is now paying. |
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P.S. Keep in mind that we are talking about changing a world order that has been in place for decades. It will take a long time, specially since the existing "order" resists being replaced.
The process of abandoning the dollar in international trade did not begin today, but previous attempts were severely suppressed by the United States (in Iraq and Libya). But with the suppression of Russia, the United States has some technical difficulties, and this gives hope that the abandonment of the dollar as a world reserve currency and the base currency in energy trade will gradually expand around the world. |
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It is not surprising to read that Russia is profiting from this situation.
Yeah, total profits, then can you explain this? https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-economy-declines-4-yy-q2-after-35-yy-increase-q1-econ-ministry-2022-07-27/The Russian economy declined by 4.0% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022 after a 3.5% rise in the previous three months, the economy ministry said on Wednesday.
The first quarter was expected to have been the last with sound growth before the Russian economy took a hit from sweeping sanctions for Moscow's decision to send troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.
The ministry also said the economic decline deepened to 4.9% year-on-year in June after a fall of 4.3% in May. Yeah, when Europe grows by 0.9% the European Union is going to collapse, when Russia's GDP is down 4%, the fall accelerated to 4.9% and their oil is selling at 74$ , Russia is doing soooooo great! Now I understand why our discussion on the other thread went like this, confirmed, you see only what you want to see, suddenly when it comes to this government you fully trust all the data! Yeah, ironic! Dude, Russia has over 10,000 sanctions and Russia's GDP is down less than 5%. If this is your success, then what is failure? ps winter is coming. |
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It seems, despite the image that some media may give us, that Russia is not doing badly financially. Russia More Than Triples Current-Account Surplus to $167 BillionRussia’s current-account surplus more than tripled from last year after notching record levels since the invasion of Ukraine, as declines in imports combined with booming revenues from energy and commodity sales abroad.
The surplus in the current account, the broadest measure of trade and investment flows, widened to almost $167 billion in January-July, compared with just over $50 billion during the same period a year earlier, the Bank of Russia said in a preliminary estimate published on Tuesday.
The proceeds have become a critical source of hard currency for the Kremlin since the invasion in February. A collapse in imports, driven in part by international sanctions over the war, has contributed to the surplus. It reached a preliminary $138.5 billion for the first six months of 2022. When you consider how pathetic it is that sanctions have been imposed on Russia by the European Union, have resulted in things like this: LMAO: India resells Russian oil to the European Union.It is not surprising to read that Russia is profiting from this situation. It's funny that a multiple increase in Russia's trade surplus against the backdrop of a special operation is actively pedaled in the Western media as a symptom that things are going badly in Russia. They say the economy is exploding from the fall in imports and there is nowhere to put the money, even cry. |
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Fresh Russian joke: In the published photos from the search of Donald Trump, a Ukrainian refugee recognized her toilet bowl. |
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