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1361  Other / Off-topic / Re: News Corp (FOX, Rupert Murdoch, Myspace) Allegedly Hacked 9/11 Victims’ Phones on: July 15, 2011, 06:42:15 AM
The worst thing is that I am not even surprised.
1362  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Will fund ASIC board for mining community. Need Hardware devs. on: July 15, 2011, 05:12:11 AM
What about financing it through shares? I mean, creating a sort of a cooperative that pays dividends in cards, so people pay the money and at the end when it is developed they get payed in cards. That way you are making sure you will get a number of sales before starting the project. Sort of like testing the waters to know if the demand is there.
1363  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [~2700 GH/sec] BTC Guild - 0% Fees, LP, SSL, API, 8 Decimal Payouts and more! on: July 15, 2011, 05:03:04 AM
question:

If we get a 1 hour (or whatever) delay in the stats.  does that include the individual worker stats?  I use the worker stats to monitor my workers.  It would be..........well I would not like to loose the interface that you provide..  

Jim

There is no need to delay the last share received or the speed worker stats, but the shares this rounds would need to be delayed because it reveals when a round starts.
1364  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [FORBES] How Private Are Bitcoin Transactions? on: July 14, 2011, 09:43:09 PM
Someone needs to fire up Tor/I2P/etc and make a "Coin Wash" site.

Someone sends in an arbitrary amount of BTC along with multiple new addresses. The BTC that go in are broken into randomly-sized portions and sent to the new addresses at random intervals, interleaved with other transactions (minus a fee of course). If multiple coin washers existed they could also send coins to each other with instructions to forward. If such nodes also ran their own private testnet of sorts (zero fee) and sent mountains of arbitrary transactions with the right format it could be quite difficult even for even the ISP to sort the real transactions from the fake (see: chaffing and winnowing).

I think the above should be sufficient to beat analysis-based attacks, using Tor or I2P beefs up protection against analysis a bit more and I trust that the security already bundled in the bitcoin client should cover the rest.

Have I missed anything?

I had though on doing this and host it in the freenet network (freenet is similar to TOR but with wepage hosting included). Also, make a plugin for the client so the anonimization would be extremely easy.
1365  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [~2700 GH/sec] BTC Guild - 0% Fees, LP, SSL, API, 8 Decimal Payouts and more! on: July 14, 2011, 09:29:06 PM
I am really sick of people referring to pool hopping as "cheating" or "hurting the pool" or "stealing other miners' money".  It's not. 

The only purposes I can think of for mining in a pool is to reduce your personal variance, and/or features the pool offers to help monitor your workers (allowing you to reduce your variance further).  The larger the pool is (higher hash rate) the lower your variance should be.

A higher hashrate for any portion of a block reduces your variance further and keeps your expected payout per minute of mining exactly the same.  In trying to refute this, please run some numbers on length of round, hashrate for different portions of it, and number of shares submitted.  If they hop out after some amount of time, that round is still statistically more likely to be over sooner, because more hashes were introduced earlier.  As Eleuthria said a few posts up, this is not to say that people who are skillfully pool hopping aren't making more than they would just sitting in one pool (because they should be, or they're doing it wrong).  It is just to say that in doing so they are helping you to reduce your variance as well.  You can be jealous of their coding skill if you like, but call it that rather than an "attack" or "ripping you off".

Also, hopping with smaller pools is just as effective as hopping with larger ones, it just increases your variance in exactly the same way as mining in said pool full time would.

If this is about programming skill, then you wont mind that the pools delay their information one hour. Without the info about when a new round starts in each pool, lets see how those programming skills help you.
1366  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Will fund ASIC board for mining community. Need Hardware devs. on: July 14, 2011, 08:59:59 PM
But can a USB port (even a reinforced one) actually supply 50 watts let alone 250w? My biggest doubt.
The USB port is strictly for work units to the ASICs and shares back to the PC. It would need its own power supply, cooling, and so on. The bandwidth needed to and from the unit is negligible. Essentially, it would need a stream of work units of 8KB every 12 seconds from the PC and return a share, about 300 bytes, about every second. A serial port would work as well. (Sorry, out of time. Numbers not double-checked. Hope I made no mistakes.)

Since you are counting $400 for 4 chips and $150 for the rest (for a total of $650) would it be posible to include a chipset that allowed a ethernet connection and a very simple webserver (like the chipset in a home router) instead of the usb chipset. This way you could have an independent device just connected to the ethernet network and configured by a simple web interface. Im not very informed about the prices but I dont think it would push the cost too much and it would avoid the need for a computer (saving energy and money). The question I guess is if that simple chipset could handle the mining software load.
1367  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [~2700 GH/sec] BTC Guild - 0% Fees, LP, SSL, API, 8 Decimal Payouts and more! on: July 14, 2011, 08:53:53 PM
But I don't understand why this matters. No matter where you are in the round the chance of finding a block is exactly the same. It isn't higher at the beginning. That's like saying you could win at Roulette by just going around and betting on black at any roulette wheel that had come up red the spin before because it makes black more likely. Each hash is a statistically independent event, right?

Yes, but that does not matter here because the point of a pool is that it does not matter who finds the block in the pool. No matter who is the miner that finds the block the profits are shared. In the pool what matters is how many shares you send and how much you earn for each share.

The key is that by being only at the beggining of the rounds you get a higher chance of getting more shares from short rounds (the more profitable shares) while avoiding a big part of the shares from the long rounds (the less profitable ones).
1368  Economy / Economics / Re: Growth, Interest and Wage Inequality - To the austrian economists here on: July 14, 2011, 08:32:52 PM
I was thinking of it as being within an inflationary or deflationary money system. People get raises, cost of capital goes up, price of products goes up, people demand higher wages, people get raises, etc. Reverse in deflation: price of products goes down, revenues go down, cost of capital is reduced to follow revenue, meaning wages go down, consumption decreases due to lower wages, price of goods follows. (Depending on how efficient the adjustments are, it may or may not be a deflationary spiral. Could just be a steady-state, slowly deflating system. So I'm not using this as an argument against deflation).

If economy grows, and money doesn't grow in time with it, it's just the fewer dollars chasing the same goods thing, where goods are both product prices and human capital. So if economy expands by 25% but the money remains the same, cost of capital goes up 25%, revenues decrease, wages decrease, and prices follow. That "same money" that the employee earns has to come from somewhere, and since the entire economic cycle is locked in a... cycle...


A currency that its not monetarely inflationary is considered price deflationary because of the increase in production due to raise in productivity. If there is not an incrase in productivity prices dont change. So the wages of the workers do not go down becuase the lower prices come from increase productivity (each worker now produces more stuff).
1369  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: bit pit - ~85 GH/s (LP, Prop, SSL, API, 0% fee, Almost 0% Stales!) on: July 14, 2011, 08:07:26 PM
We have been discusing about Pool Hooping in the BTCGuild thread and the conclussion has been that delaying the information stops pool hoopers. The idea is that pool hooping is only profitable if you join when a new round starts. But if you dont know when a new round starts then you can not do pool hooping. So there is no need for complicated system. Just delay the information some hours and pool hooping is not posible. In BTCGuild they can probably get away with delaying the information 1 hour, but in smaller pools like this one maybe you need to delay it like 6 hours or something like that?
1370  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [~2700 GH/sec] BTC Guild - 0% Fees, LP, SSL, API, 8 Decimal Payouts and more! on: July 14, 2011, 07:47:09 PM
So yes, delay the stats 1 hour (or whatever) and pool hooping problem is gone.
That won't solve the "problem" because they will use the LP feature of the pool!

I am completely ignorant about how LP works, but does it really report when a new round on the pool starts, or only signals when a new block has been found (in some pool but you can not know in which one)? In the first case pool hooping is posible with LP, in the second case its not.
1371  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [~2700 GH/sec] BTC Guild - 0% Fees, LP, SSL, API, 8 Decimal Payouts and more! on: July 14, 2011, 07:38:32 PM
The point isn't that pool hopping isn't more money.  It is.  Putting your shares into pools with the shortest round is going to make you more money.

But my point is that in terms of BTC/minute, your payouts from BTC Guild are the same no matter what pool hoppers are doing:  Staying in the pool the whole time, jumping to another pool, or not being in the pool at all.

Technically, pool hopping does hurt the pool because long rounds take even longer than they should, so a higher percentage of your pool's time is functioning at a low BTC/minute from bad luck rounds.

However, this argument is only valid IF the pool hoppers were going to stay on the pool in the first place.  My argument is that nobody that has the setup to pool hop would bother being on the pool in the first place if we had a stat delay/score system.  There are many other proportional/real-time pools out there to hop on.  As such, pool hoppers not being on the pool at all will actually mean the long rounds do last slightly longer than if the pool hoppers were on them for the first couple of minutes.

If the pool hoopers know when the rounds start in real time, they hurt the rest of the users. If they dont, then pool hooping becomes random and they can not profit and do not hurt others.

Pool hooping is only profitable if they know when the round is starting. So yes, delay the stats 1 hour (or whatever) and pool hooping problem is gone.
1372  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [~2700 GH/sec] BTC Guild - 0% Fees, LP, SSL, API, 8 Decimal Payouts and more! on: July 14, 2011, 07:13:54 PM
i posted this above but relevant here after your last post.

"also... btcguild just had a very short round.. 1:15 seconds.. a pool hopper better be scraping
the screen at btcguild quite a bit to get in on those.. i am not clear how else they would know
a block is being solved by all these places otherwise... if they scrape every 30 seconds they just
lost out on a significant chance to make some BTC... regulars did quite well though."

so are people scraping btcguild's website every 2 seconds to make sure they can get in on these
super short ones?

Its easy to read the JSON. But yes, I dont know if they do it, as I said Im not a hooper. In this sense its probably easier for the hoopers to operate in smaller pools so the probability of a very short round is a lot lower.
1373  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [~2700 GH/sec] BTC Guild - 0% Fees, LP, SSL, API, 8 Decimal Payouts and more! on: July 14, 2011, 07:05:31 PM
But pool hoopers get a bigger number of more profitable shares, while leaving the less profitable shares to the "legal" miners that have to assume its costs alone.

this is the assumption or ?fact? that makes pool hopping more profitable. i get it.
no need for me to debate it...

but does not luck play a role in all this? that a pool hopper could leave a long round
only to join another pool in a long round... only to hop again to another long round...
and eventually run out of pools.. with all that work stuck in long rounds loosing value
as they finally sit in a PPS pool.

now the flip side is that they could leave a long round and get a couple lucky short
ones in.. but that is not guaranteed.. and often short rounds are routinely discovered
by only the largest pools.. so you will run out pools to hop into quickly since some try
to defeat pool hopping...
so now you go to PPS pool and sit there until a round is solved... and start over again.

how does luck play into all this for a pool hopper. sometimes they get some short in..
sometimes they sit in a PPS... how does it even out over time.. how big of an advantage?
i heard 28% being spoken about.

just thinking out loud. no need to respond back if you do not feel like it.

Hoopers, at least inteligent hoopers, only jump to pools that just started a round, and then leave to join another pool that just started their round. Im sure there will be better optimizations, I am not a pool hooper so I dont know them. But the key is that you know when a round starts, but not when a round ends, so by being at the beggining of each round in different pools you increase the probability of getting the more profitable shares while avoiding part of the less profitable shares.

They key is that you know when a round starts but not when it ends.
1374  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [~2700 GH/sec] BTC Guild - 0% Fees, LP, SSL, API, 8 Decimal Payouts and more! on: July 14, 2011, 06:51:16 PM
But this is not true.

Because the "legal" miner gets to colaborate more in the long rounds, the ones that are less profitable, while the pool hoppers jump to a new one and stop collaborating. In the more profitable rounds, the pool hoopers get their complete share.

Supposedly you are collaborating in the long rounds because it gets compensated in the short rounds and with time its even. But if some of the miners only collaborate fully in the short runs and only a part collaborate in the long rounds, the less profitables, there is a problem where some are benefiting at the expense of others.

Please point out why another pool's payouts during that time affect the normal BTC Guild user.  You quoted one of three scenarios.  In the end, the non hoppers make the same BTC/minute whether the hoppers were involved for all of the round, part of the round, or none of the round.

First, the "legal" user does not benefit from having the hoopers in the short runs or in the beggining of the long rounds. Yes, it will make the pool discover rounds quicker, but then the bitcoins have to be divided among more people, so there is no increase in profit from having the hoopers for the "legal" miner. Maybe the only advantage is a reduction on variance, but only maybe because they leave in the long rounds making them longer (Im not really sure about the net result on variance but its irrelevant, the point is that it does not increase the profits for the "legal" miner to have the hoopers).

Then, the shares in the quick rounds are more profitable than the shares in the long rounds. Ideally everybody would want to have luck and get quick rounds. But we know that over time things even out, so "legal" miners assume that they will get an even number of more profitable shares and less profitable shares. But pool hoopers get a bigger number of more profitable shares, while leaving the less profitable shares to the "legal" miners that have to assume its costs alone.

Is that clearer?

EDIT: Its easy to prove that hoopers are taking bitcoins from "legal" miners in other way: Since bitcoins are created at a predictable rate (lets ignore difficulty changes for this), and hoopers make more bitcoins by changing pools (and this can be demostrated easily), it means that there are less bitcoins for the rest. This is because the "legal" miners work more on the less profitable shares (the ones from the long rounds) than the hoopers.
1375  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [~2700 GH/sec] BTC Guild - 0% Fees, LP, SSL, API, 8 Decimal Payouts and more! on: July 14, 2011, 06:38:38 PM
Here's a theoretical scenario.  I'm using simple math, just to make it easy to follow:

This scenario assumes the following:
  10% of the pool is hopping
  The total pool speed WITH the hoppers is 100k shares per minute. (So 10k/minute from hoppers, 90k/minute for "legit users")
  The hoppers are swapping at 1 million shares (AKA: 10 minutes/100k shares)
  The hoppers are efficient enough to join rounds/leave rounds at the exact start of a new round/1m share mark on a long round.

Scenario 1)
We solve our first block at 500k shares.  Pool hoppers get 5 BTC (10%), rest of the pool gets 45 BTC.  So pool hoppers get 1 BTC/minute, rest of the pool gets 9 BTC/minute.

We then have a long block, 3 million shares.  The pool hoppers contributed 100k, or 3.3%.  Hoppers get 1.66 BTC, the rest of the pool received 48.34.  Because the last 2 million shares were running at 90% normal speed, it took 22.22 minutes to finish the block after they left, or 32.22 minutes total. The pool hoppers got 0.166 BTC/minute (10 minutes of work).  The rest of the pool got 1.50 BTC/minute (32.22 minutes of work).  What the pool hoppers earned on other pools during the other 22.22 minutes is irrelevant to BTC Guild's users payouts.

But this is not true.

Because the "legal" miner gets to colaborate more in the long rounds, the ones that are less profitable, while the pool hoppers jump to a new one and stop collaborating. In the more profitable rounds, the pool hoopers get their complete share.

Supposedly you are collaborating in the long rounds because it gets compensated in the short rounds and with time its even. But if some of the miners only collaborate fully in the short runs and only a part collaborate in the long rounds, the less profitables, there is a problem where some are benefiting at the expense of others.
1376  Economy / Economics / Re: Why bitcoins are hovering around $14 on: July 14, 2011, 04:44:49 PM
That's an interesting point; however, I don't think that's all there is to it. The interest in Bitcoin has capped at the moment. Check out Google trends, you'll notice that the number of searches has dropped drastically. Maybe the price stagnation is also a symptom of this. If the interest in Bitcoin keeps dropping I expect the price to erode further.

Still, you have a point, we'll see what happens in a couple of weeks.

But there are still 50 bitcoins created every ten minutes (roughly) that means 6000 bitcoins a day, 42000 bitcoins a week, ... you get the idea. Thats a big increase in the money supply and there are a number of miners that sell what they produce, so there has to be people buying, otherwise with the new supply of bitcoins the price would plummet.
1377  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: 6 PCIe slots. Wet dream? on: July 14, 2011, 04:36:49 PM
You know that you can mine on pretty much any slot, right?

i.e. you can fit 7 card on that board..

Yes. But, I've heard power consumption can fry a motherboard. If you're running 7 6990s, realistically, wouldn't you toast your motheboard? I'd be using 6870s, 6950s, and the like; I'm worried that if I put 5 or 6 cards on the motherboard it won't be able to handle the power.

That's why I am interested in motherboards with native PCIe slots. One would assume they've been built to handle higher power requirements.

You can use pci-e extenders that get the current directly from the PSU so the motherboard does not suffer. You can get $100 motherboards that will accept 6 cards with extenders without a problem. And you need the extenders anyway becuase the cards are double and you want them to be separated to keep them cool. So really there is no need for such a expensive motherboard. Get a good one, $100-150 and extenders with a molex to get the current directly from the PSU.
1378  Economy / Economics / Re: U.S. Dollar Plummets as Bernanke Suggests Further Easing on: July 14, 2011, 04:33:21 PM
The U.S. debt is in dollars guys, if the U.S. Treasury cannot redeem the debt by using tax revenue or more debt then holders of U.S. debt will simply sell their securities to the Federal Reserve:)
And for a remote reason the investors don't want to lend to the U.S. government the Fed will do it. The result in both cases would be quantitative easing on a scale never seen before, this would be incredibly bullish for U.S. and world stock markets. The U.S. government will never default on its debt. The U.S. debt ceiling negotiations is just a comic.

Actually, during the 70's there stagflation. The Fed was loose but because the capital structure was so distorted from the inflation from previous years, the stock market did not do that good. The money flowed into other areas. So watch out, with stagflation the stock market wont collapse but it will hardly keep up with price inflation. Some stocks will do good (specially the ones related with commodities), but overall I dont think it will be that good.
1379  Other / Off-topic / Re: (almost) free energy presentation for real ? on: July 14, 2011, 04:29:18 PM

The thing the guy is not publishing or explaining how it works inside because:

1) Its a scam.

2) He wants to make money out of his invention and does not want to reveal how it works.

So yeah, the guy is not publishing anything with scientific standars, nor giving information about his invention, but that does not mean automatically that its a scam.

From the videos I have seen if it is a trick its a very good trick because I have not seen where the energy could be coming from. Also, he has agreed with the greek company to not be payed a dime until they have the prototype working and he has agreed. If it is a scam and the thing does not work why would he agree to something like that?

I guess we will see if it is real or not in a few months. The prototype from the greek company should be ready by October.
1380  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: bit pit - ~100 GH/s (LP, Prop, SSL, API, 0% fee, Almost 0% Stales!) on: July 14, 2011, 11:15:46 AM
Quote
Unpaid shares remain as a credit and will be paid out before "new" shares are paid out. It's like a queue, no credit gets lost.

Ok, so there could be "negative" excess reserves, meaning that the pool will pay in the future those shares when they are found.

So does this mean that the pool will delay new share payout until all old shares are fully paid?
If there are withholders, this would mean that they will get full payouts one day, but payouts get delayed by possibly weeks, which is very unattractive to new users.

I can thing of two alternatives which might be better (I'm not sure yet):
  • Keep track of the total number of bitcoins that a share should have been paid, and try to reach the same payout level for all shares. E.g. if all old shares have been paid 70% or something, the block's reward will first be used to bring the new shares to the same level, and if there are funds left, raise the payout level of all shares. (Of course if the block before had a lower payout level than average, these shares will be brought "up to speed" first.) This ultimately tries to achieve the same payout level for all shares.
  • Do the same on a per-user basis. I.e. take into account that some users might have got 100% reward from some older blocks which by now are fully paid, and others only took part in "unlucky" (or just newer) rounds which aren't fully paid yet, and try to achieve the same average payout percentage for everyone. This sounds most fair to me in the long term, but may encourage users to register a new account after a couple of lucky rounds to escape redistribution. I'm not sure if that would be worth the effort though.

Any thoughts on these models?
Oh, and +1 for SMPPS in general Smiley

Yeah, this sounds like a good idea. But if the pool goes into a strike of bad luck, new users still know that they might be payed less, unless the pool goes into a strike of good luck, so its not as big but there is still a disincentive. Also, its complicated, people like simple things.
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